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广发期货《农产品》日报-20251028
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 05:28
Group 1: General Information - The reports are from October 28, 2025, and cover multiple industries including oils and fats, meal, pork, corn, sugar, cotton, and eggs [1][2][4][7][10][12][14] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports Group 3: Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may weaken in the short - term due to production growth, export slowdown, and potential inventory increase. After the MPOB report, it may rise supported by production and inventory decline and the Indonesian B50 topic. Domestic palm oil futures may follow the Malaysian trend. Soybean oil may rise in the short - term due to strong CBOT soybean and soybean oil, but its increase may be limited by sufficient supply and weak demand [1] Meal Industry - With Sino - US relations warming, the expectation of China purchasing US soybeans is increasing, and US soybean压榨 data is strong. Brazilian soybean exports to China remain high. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, but costs are strongly supported, so domestic meal is expected to trend strongly [2] Pork Industry - Recent pig price rebounds are due to secondary fattening. There is demand improvement, but 11 and 12 - month出栏量 will increase, and there may be new pressure around the Winter Solstice. Current arbitrage holding risks are high [4] Corn Industry - Northeast corn prices are stable overall, with some areas declining. In North China, farmers' selling enthusiasm decreases as prices fall. Corn is in the concentrated selling period, and the supply pressure keeps the market weak. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for刚需 [7] Sugar Industry - Brazil's gasoline price cut dashed the expectation of a lower sugar - making ratio, and the sugar supply outlook is loose. As the Northern Hemisphere's crushing season begins, the market focuses on India and Thailand. Domestic sugar prices are near production costs, and the current bottom - shock weak pattern may continue [11] Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flows have recovered, and the rigid demand for cotton is resilient. New cotton costs have increased, but there is hedging pressure, and the short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range [12] Egg Industry - Egg supply is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory, restored egg - laying rate, and increased egg weight. Demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline in the second half of the week due to supply - demand imbalance [15] Group 4: Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On October 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8480 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.36%) from October 24. The futures price of Y2601 was 8234 yuan, up 40 yuan (0.49%). The basis was 246 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 3.91%) [1] - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 9030 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.33%). The futures price of P2601 was 9100 yuan, down 22 yuan (- 0.24%). The basis was - 70 yuan, up 52 yuan (42.62%) [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10050 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.50%). The futures price of OI601 was 9748 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.13%). The basis was 302 yuan, up 63 yuan (26.36%) [1] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2932 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%) [2] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2410 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.41%). The futures price of RM2601 was 2335 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.43%). The basis was 75 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 21.05%) [2] Pork Industry - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 120, up 345 (153.33%). The price of Live Pig 2511 was 12065 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan (5.00%); Live Pig 2601 was 12330 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan (1.27%) [4] - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 12450 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; in Shandong was 12400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [4] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2601 was 2112 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.98%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%) [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2601 was 2425 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (- 0.66%). The basis was 85 yuan, up 16 yuan (23.19%) [7] Sugar Industry - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.02%); Sugar 2605 was 5399 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.02%) [11] - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming was 5725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.09%) [11] Cotton Industry - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2605 was 13575 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (0.26%); Cotton 2601 was 13565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.18%) [12] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan (0.23%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.20%) [12] Egg Industry - **Futures**: The price of Egg 11 contract was 2918 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan (1.46%); Egg 01 contract was 3327 yuan/500KG, up 25 yuan (0.76%) [15] - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan (1.08%) [15]
中美谈出成果后,驻美大使谢锋,当着美国人的面,提出三点要求
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 04:02
Core Points - The recent economic discussions between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur resulted in preliminary agreements on fentanyl regulation, maritime logistics, and tariff suspensions, signaling a positive development in bilateral relations [1][3] - Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, emphasized the need for deeper grassroots and local cooperation to stabilize bilateral relations, highlighting the urgency of interdependence in the current international landscape [1][3] Group 1: Diplomatic Engagement - The discussions provided a "breathing space" for both countries amidst escalating tensions, with a focus on dialogue over conflict [3] - Xie Feng stated that "people-to-people friendship is the foundation of bilateral relations," indicating the importance of public engagement in fostering a positive cycle in U.S.-China relations [3][5] Group 2: Cultural and Local Cooperation - Xie Feng's first requirement was "mutual understanding," advocating for cultural exchanges to enhance recognition between the two nations [5] - There are currently 288 pairs of friendly provinces and cities between China and the U.S., which can help ease tensions at the national level through local government interactions [5] Group 3: Addressing Global Challenges - The ambassador called for a focus on shared challenges such as climate change, artificial intelligence, and urban governance, which reflect both national interests and global responsibilities [5] - Cooperation on these global issues could strengthen the foundation of U.S.-China relations and showcase China's role as a responsible major power [5] Group 4: Ongoing Tensions - Despite positive outcomes from the discussions, core issues like the Taiwan question remain a "red line," indicating the complexity of future U.S.-China relations [7] - The future trajectory of U.S.-China relations is expected to oscillate between competition and cooperation, with grassroots exchanges potentially serving as a stabilizing factor [7]
别看美国张牙舞爪,一到中国问题上,特朗普还是不敢“掀桌子”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 02:23
Core Points - Recent statements from President Trump indicate a shift towards a more conciliatory approach to China, contrasting with previous aggressive stances [1][4] - The U.S. is facing challenges in its foreign policy, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine, which may be influencing Trump's softer tone towards China [1][2] - Trump's decision not to impose tariffs on China, despite its significant oil imports from Russia, highlights a selective approach to trade policy [2][4] Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - Trump's recent comments suggest a desire to maintain friendly relations with China, moving away from earlier threats of imposing 100% tariffs [1][4] - The U.S. has not followed through on plans to impose "secondary tariffs" on China, indicating a reluctance to escalate tensions [2][4] - Trump's cautious approach towards China is influenced by the recognition of China's strengths in key areas, particularly in rare earth resources [5][7] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - The U.S. is experiencing significant backlash from its agricultural and energy sectors due to the trade war, which has led to a reconsideration of its stance towards China [7] - Despite tensions, the U.S. remains dependent on the Chinese market, as no alternative trading partners have emerged to replace it [7] - Trump's overtures towards China may lack sincerity, as they are seen as strategic rather than genuine attempts to improve relations [7]
《农产品》日报-20251028
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 01:04
1. Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may weaken in the short - term due to production growth, export slowdown, and potential inventory increase. After the MPOB report, it may gradually recover supported by production and inventory decline and the Indonesian B50 topic. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures may follow the trend of Malaysian palm oil. [1] - For soybean oil, the market is optimistic about the China - US meeting, but actual shipments need time. CBOT soybeans and soybean oil are strong in the short - term, but domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient and demand is weak, with limited upside potential. [1] Meal Industry - With the warming of China - US relations, the expectation of China purchasing US soybeans is increasing, and US soybean prices are rising. The cost of domestic soybean imports is supported, and domestic soybean meal is expected to trend stronger. [2] Livestock (Pig) Industry - The recent rebound in pig prices is due to secondary fattening. Supply and demand are in a tight game in the short - term, but there will be more supply pressure in November and December. Current arbitrage holding risk is high. [4] Corn Industry - In the corn market, the supply in the Northeast is sufficient and prices are stable, while in North China, farmers' selling enthusiasm is affected by price changes. Overall, the market is under selling pressure, and the demand side is still mainly for rigid needs. [7] Sugar Industry - Brazil's gasoline price cut dashed the expectation of a lower sugar - making ratio, and the global sugar supply outlook is loose. Domestic sugar prices are relatively low and have limited downward momentum. [11] Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flow have improved, and the rigid demand for cotton raw materials is resilient. New cotton costs have increased, but there is also hedging pressure, and short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range. [12] Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is sufficient. Demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline due to the strong supply and weak demand situation. [15] 3. Summary by Categories Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On October 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8480 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.36%) from October 24. The futures price of Y2601 was 8234 yuan, up 40 yuan (0.49%). The basis of Y2601 was 246 yuan, down 10 yuan (-3.91%). [1] - **Palm Oil**: On October 27, the spot price in Guangdong was 9030 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.33%). The futures price of P2601 was 9100 yuan, down 22 yuan (-0.24%). The basis of P2601 was - 70 yuan, up 52 yuan (42.62%). [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: On October 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 10050 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.50%). The futures price of OI601 was 9748 yuan, down 13 yuan (-0.13%). The basis of OI601 was 302 yuan, up 63 yuan (26.36%). [1] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2932 yuan, down 1 yuan (-0.03%). The basis of M2601 was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%). [2] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2410 yuan, down 10 yuan (-0.41%). The futures price of RM2601 was 2335 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.43%). The basis of RM2601 was 75 yuan, down 20 yuan (-21.05%). [2] Livestock (Pig) Industry - **Futures**: The price of the main contract basis was 120, up 345 (153.33%). The price of the live - hog 2511 contract was 12065 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan (5.00%), and the 2601 contract was 12330 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan (1.27%). [4] - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 12450 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; in Shandong, it was 12400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. [4] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2601 contract was 2112 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (-0.98%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%). [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2601 contract was 2425 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (-0.66%). The basis was 85 yuan, up 16 yuan (23.19%). [7] Sugar Industry - **Futures**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (-0.02%); the 2605 contract was 5399 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.02%). [11] - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, it was 5725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.09%). [11] Cotton Industry - **Futures**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13575 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (0.26%); the 2601 contract was 13565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.18%). [12] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan (0.23%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.20%). [12] Egg Industry - **Futures**: The price of the egg 11 contract was 2918 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan (1.46%); the 01 contract was 3327 yuan/500KG, up 25 yuan (0.76%). [15] - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan (1.08%); the egg - chicken price was 2.65 yuan/feather, up 0.05 yuan (1.92%). [15]
深夜,全线上涨!中概股爆发,人民币拉升!
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-27 14:54
Market Performance - The three major US stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.56%, S&P 500 up 0.86%, and Nasdaq up 1.38%, all reaching new historical highs [1] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Nvidia, Google A, and Tesla rising over 2%, while Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, and Apple increased by more than 1% [2] - Most large bank stocks also rose, with Barclays up over 2%, and Citigroup, UBS, and Morgan Stanley up over 1% [3] Economic Indicators - The upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" is anticipated, with the Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for October 28-29, where a 25 basis point rate cut to the 3.75%-4% range is widely expected [3] - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is 98.3%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate is only 1.7% [3] Chinese Market Insights - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged over 2% in early trading [3] - Popular Chinese stocks mostly rose, with Baidu up over 5%, Vipshop up over 4%, and NIO, Xpeng, and JD.com up over 3% [6] Currency and Commodity Trends - The offshore RMB strengthened, rising over 200 basis points against the US dollar [8] - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with London gold and COMEX gold both falling nearly 3%, and London gold dropping below $4000 per ounce [9] - Capital Economics has revised down its gold price forecast, expecting it to fall to $3500 per ounce by the end of 2026 [10] - However, Fidelity International remains bullish on gold, citing factors like Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks as supportive for gold's performance [11]
王毅同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话
券商中国· 2025-10-27 13:50
Core Viewpoint - The dialogue between Wang Yi and Marco Rubio emphasizes the importance of a healthy, stable, and sustainable China-U.S. relationship, which is crucial for both nations' long-term interests and the international community's expectations [1]. Summary by Sections China-U.S. Relations - Wang Yi highlighted that the relationship between China and the U.S. significantly influences global dynamics, and both countries should work towards a mutually beneficial relationship [1]. - The recent economic and trade tensions were addressed through the Kuala Lumpur economic talks, where both sides clarified their positions and reached a framework consensus to resolve urgent economic issues [1]. Leadership and Strategic Assets - The long-term interactions and mutual respect between President Xi Jinping and President Trump are considered valuable strategic assets for China-U.S. relations [1]. - The dialogue underscores the necessity of adhering to the important consensus reached by the leaders of both nations to stabilize and advance their relationship [1]. Future Interactions - Both parties expressed a desire for high-level interactions to prepare for the development of China-U.S. relations and create favorable conditions for future cooperation [1]. - Rubio acknowledged the significance of the China-U.S. relationship as the most important bilateral relationship in the world and looked forward to sending positive signals through high-level engagement [1].
王毅同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话
第一财经· 2025-10-27 13:01
王毅表示,中美关系牵动世界的走向,一个健康、稳定、可持续的双边关系符合两国长远利益,也是国 际社会共同期待。习近平主席和特朗普总统都是世界级领袖,长期交往、彼此尊重,这已成为中美关系 最宝贵的战略资产。前段时间,中美经贸关系再次出现波折。通过吉隆坡经贸会谈,双方澄清了立场, 增进了理解,就对等解决当前紧迫的经贸问题达成框架共识。这再次证明,只要双方不折不扣落实两国 元首达成的重要共识,秉承平等、尊重、互惠精神,坚持通过对话化解矛盾,摒弃动辄施压的做法,就 有可能推动两国关系稳下来、向前走。希望双方相向而行,为中美高层互动做好准备,为两国关系发展 创造条件。 来源|新华社 编辑|瑜见 鲁比奥表示,美中关系是世界上最重要的双边关系,期待通过高层互动,向世界发出积极信号。 10月27日,中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话。 ...
王毅同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话
21世纪经济报道· 2025-10-27 12:53
来源丨央视新闻 编辑丨刘雪莹 SFC 王毅表示,中美关系牵动世界的走向,一个健康、稳定、可持续的双边关系符合两国长远利 益,也是国际社会共同期待。习近平主席和特朗普总统都是世界级领袖,长期交往、彼此尊 重,这已成为中美关系最宝贵的战略资产。前段时间,中美经贸关系再次出现波折。通过吉隆 坡经贸会谈,双方澄清了立场,增进了理解,就对等解决当前紧迫的经贸问题达成框架共识。 这再次证明,只要双方不折不扣落实两国元首达成的重要共识,秉承平等、尊重、互惠精神, 坚持通过对话化解矛盾,摒弃动辄施压的做法,就有可能推动两国关系稳下来、向前走。希望 双方相向而行,为中美高层互动做好准备,为两国关系发展创造条件。 10月27日,中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话。 鲁比奥表示,美中关系是世界上最重要的双边关系,期待通过高层互动,向世界发出积极信 号。 ...
王毅同鲁比奥通电话
中国基金报· 2025-10-27 12:51
王毅表示,中美关系牵动世界的走向,一个健康、稳定、可持续的双边关系符合两国长远利 益,也是国际社会共同期待。习近平主席和特朗普总统都是世界级领袖,长期交往、彼此尊 重,这已成为中美关系最宝贵的战略资产。前段时间,中美经贸关系再次出现波折。通过吉隆 坡经贸会谈,双方澄清了立场,增进了理解,就对等解决当前紧迫的经贸问题达成框架共识。 这再次证明,只要双方不折不扣落实两国元首达成的重要共识,秉承平等、尊重、互惠精神, 坚持通过对话化解矛盾,摒弃动辄施压的做法,就有可能推动两国关系稳下来、向前走。希望 双方相向而行,为中美高层互动做好准备,为两国关系发展创造条件。 鲁比奥表示,美中关系是世界上最重要的双边关系,期待通过高层互动,向世界发出积极信 号。 来源:新华社 10月27日,中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话。 ...
王毅同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话
财联社· 2025-10-27 12:50
据央视新闻,10月27日,中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话。 王毅表示,中美关系牵动世界的走向,一个健康、稳定、可持续的双边关系符合两国长远利益,也是国际社会共同期待。习近平主席和特朗普总统 都是世界级领袖,长期交往、彼此尊重,这已成为中美关系最宝贵的战略资产。前段时间,中美经贸关系再次出现波折。通过吉隆坡经贸会谈,双 方澄清了立场,增进了理解,就对等解决当前紧迫的经贸问题达成框架共识。这再次证明,只要双方不折不扣落实两国元首达成的重要共识,秉承 平等、尊重、互惠精神,坚持通过对话化解矛盾,摒弃动辄施压的做法,就有可能推动两国关系稳下来、向前走。希望双方相向而行,为中美高层 互动做好准备,为两国关系发展创造条件。 鲁比奥表示,美中关系是世界上最重要的双边关系,期待通过高层互动,向世界发出积极信号。 ...