Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is El Niño weather [5] 3. Summary by Oil Type Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less than expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Entering the production - reduction season later, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8300, with a basis of 360, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, a 20,000 - ton increase from the previous 1.16 million tons, and a 11.7% increase year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil (Y2605) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7700 - 8100 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less than expected production cuts. Entering the production - increase season later, the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8540, with a basis of 48, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous 570,000 tons, and a 34.1% decrease year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil (P2605) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two oils, the MPOB report is neutral, with less than expected production cuts. Entering the production - increase season later, the supply of palm oil will increase [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9800, with a basis of 604, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous 550,000 tons, and a 3.2% increase year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have turned to short positions [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4] 4. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

据 环球时报援引 日本《北海道新闻》12月14日报道称，消息人士透露，在谈及中美以及中日关系 时，美国 总统特朗普曾对日本首相高市早苗警告称"别来添乱"。 高市早苗11月7日发表涉台错误言论，暗示武力介入台海可能性，中日关系趋于恶化。而高市的表态 也令美方感到不快，据日本政府相关人士透露，在11月底的日美首脑电话会谈中，特朗普曾以严厉 语气警告高市早苗："（中美）正努力把事情处理好，别来添乱。"日本首相官邸消息人士透露，高 市早苗在通话后"情绪相当低落"。 微信编辑 | 小羊 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 2025.12. 15 推荐阅读 史上最大的IPO要来了？ Ad 生成 8 8 ..... the first a Hun A f in the ars ● . ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a warning from U.S. President Trump to Japanese Prime Minister Kishi, advising him not to complicate U.S.-China relations following Kishi's controversial remarks regarding Taiwan [1][5]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Relations - Trump expressed his concerns to Kishi during a phone call, stating that the U.S. and China are working to manage the situation and urged Kishi not to "make things worse" [1][5]. - Kishi's comments on Taiwan, made on November 7, hinted at the possibility of military intervention, which has strained Japan-China relations and displeased the U.S. [5][1]. Group 2: Communication Details - The phone call took place on November 25, initiated by Trump, where Kishi confirmed the close cooperation between the U.S. and Japan [7]. - Kishi refrained from disclosing specific details about the conversation, citing diplomatic confidentiality [7][3]. Group 3: Chinese Response - In response to inquiries about the U.S.-Japan leaders' call, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that it is a matter between the U.S. and Japan and emphasized that Taiwan is an internal issue for China, not open to external interference [3][7].

美国彻底服了？美白纸黑字承认：想保住第一就得好好和中国处 #一分钟视频创作季##微博超有用视频 大赛##微博视频广告共享计划# 特别声明：以上文章内容仅代表作者本人观点，不代表新浪网观点或立场。如有关于作品内容、版权或其它问 题请于作品发表后的30日内与新浪网联系。 美国彻底服了？美白纸黑字承认：想保住第一就得好好和中国处 美国彻底服了？美白纸黑字承认： 想保住第一就得好好和中国处 ...

【环球时报报道 记者 郭媛丹】中日关系因日本首相高市早苗错误言论持续紧张之际，日本炒作中国战 机"雷达照射"日本自卫队飞机，企图在国际舆论场获取支持。日本防卫大臣小泉进次郎12日与美国国防 部长赫格塞思通电话，随后日方公布通话内容称，日美防长认为中国近期的行动"不利于地区和平"。接 受《环球时报》采访的专家表示，日本希望拉美国为其站台，这是其一贯伎俩。 日美防长通话后，日本防卫省发表声明说，小泉进次郎和赫格塞思就"印太地区日益严峻的安全局势"坦 诚交换意见，两人也谈到12月6日中国军机两度对日本航空自卫队战机进行"雷达照射"事件。日本防卫 省宣称："两名防长对任何加剧地区紧张局势的行动表示严重关切，因为中国的行为不利于地区和平与 稳定。" 12月13日是第十二个南京大屠杀死难者国家公祭日。回顾历史，郭嘉昆表示，日本军国主义以所谓"存 亡危机事态"为由，对中国和其他亚洲国家发动侵略战争，犯下的反人类罪行罄竹难书，是人类文明史 上的耻辱。"我们绝不允许日本右翼势力开历史倒车，绝不允许外部势力染指中国台湾地区，绝不允许 日本军国主义死灰复燃。"郭嘉昆强调，"日本军国主义是全世界人民的公敌。中方将同所有爱好和平的 国 ...

Group 1 - The White House spokesperson emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong alliance with Japan while also fostering a good cooperative relationship with China, indicating a balanced approach towards both countries [2][4] - In response to concerns about the deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations, the spokesperson did not provide an evaluation of the current situation or mention any specific actions the U.S. might take [4] - The spokesperson highlighted the significance of Japan as an ally, especially in light of recent tensions arising from incidents such as Chinese military aircraft targeting Japanese Self-Defense Force planes with radar [4] Group 2 - The spokesperson noted that President Trump has established a good relationship with Japan's new Prime Minister, emphasizing their previous meetings and ongoing communications [4]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, met with Ralph Lauren's President and CEO, Patrice Louvet, to discuss Ralph Lauren's operations in China and Sino-U.S. economic and trade cooperation [1] - On the same day, Xie Feng also met with Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer to exchange views on U.S.-China relations and other mutual concerns [1]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-12-11投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8300，基差300，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605：7800-8200附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 ...

Group 1 - The core argument highlights the ongoing struggle between the US and China, with the US's "America First" approach revealing vulnerabilities, particularly under the leadership of President Trump, who is perceived as weaker against strong adversaries like China [1][3] - The article discusses how the personal image and strategic positioning of the US President significantly influence the country's foreign policy direction, indicating that the era of a personality-driven diplomatic approach is coming to an end [3][4] - The consequences of the US-China trade tensions are evident, with a notable decline in US agricultural exports and significant job losses in manufacturing, leading to the US government paying $28 billion in subsidies to the agricultural sector [4] Group 2 - The decision-making process in US foreign policy towards China is heavily influenced by the President, with other officials aligning their actions based on the President's stance, resulting in fluctuating policies [6][8] - The article contrasts the approaches of different US Presidents, noting that while Trump adopted a confrontational stance, Biden has continued this approach but with an added emphasis on democratic values, yet neither has succeeded in compelling China to yield [8][10] - The narrative emphasizes that China's resilience and strategic advancements in technology and manufacturing have rendered traditional US tactics of pressure ineffective, suggesting a need for a more cooperative approach rather than one of unilateral suppression [11][15] Group 3 - The article posits that the future of US-China relations will not be determined by individual presidential elections but rather by the ability to move beyond simplistic notions of power dynamics towards more coordinated institutional arrangements and mutual benefit [16] - It concludes that the ongoing trade wars and geopolitical frictions validate the trend of China's unstoppable development, indicating that the US must adapt its strategy to avoid marginalization and seek win-win outcomes with China [15][16]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-12-10投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8300，基差316，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605：7800-8200附近区间震荡 每日观点 菜籽油 ...