Core Viewpoint - The US-China tariff conflict is a decisive force reshaping the global economic order, with both countries vying for dominance over supply chains, technology standards, and development models [1] Group 1: Tariff Dynamics - The 2025 Geneva Agreement is a backdrop for the ultimate struggle for industrial chain dominance, where the US employs a dynamic tariff system under Trump's policies to segment high-end manufacturing chains [1] - China retaliates against technological blockades using strategic resources like rare earths, directly influencing 42% of the global intermediate goods supply chain and increasing uncertainty in global supply chains [1] Group 2: Strategic Responses - Chinese companies are implementing overseas strategies to achieve supply chain restructuring and localized operations, seeking new pathways amid dynamic tariffs and technological barriers [1] - The analysis by Professor Hu Jie aims to decode policies and provide insights for enterprises to navigate the complexities of global value chain restructuring [1] Group 3: Expert Background - Professor Hu Jie is a practice professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University and has extensive experience in financial economics and policy analysis, having worked at the Federal Reserve Bank and in investment banking in Hong Kong and Singapore [2][3] - His research and teaching focus on financial markets, macroeconomic policies, fintech, and the internationalization of Chinese enterprises [2][3] Group 4: Event Information - An event featuring Professor Hu Jie will discuss the deeper dynamics behind the US-China tariff relaxations, providing a platform for interaction and exchange [2][4]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 16 日 市场点评报告 车企承诺" 60 天账期"，供应链迎重构契机 车企"60 天账期"承诺有望提升供应链效率，但执行仍面临旧有惯性和转型 挑战。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 车企"60 天账期"承诺，促进产业健康发展。6 月 10 日晚至 11 日凌晨， 广汽集团、中国一汽、东风汽车、赛力斯、吉利汽车、比亚迪汽车等多 家车企集体发声，承诺供应商账期不超过 60 天，以保障供应链资金高效 周转，助力产业链良好协同发展。此次国内车企集体发声，是响应 2025 年 6 月 1 日施行的《保障中小企业款项支付条例》。 "60 天账期"的调整对汽车行业及其供应链带来了积极影响。首先，缩 短账期有效减轻了供应商的资金压力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of revitalizing existing assets and liabilities within the economy to stimulate growth, highlighting recent government efforts and financial data that indicate a significant increase in social financing and government bond issuance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Data Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the cumulative increase in social financing for the first five months reached 18.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.83 trillion yuan [1]. - In May, the social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, which is 224.7 billion yuan more than the previous year [1]. - M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 2.3%, resulting in a M2-M1 gap of 5.6 percentage points, which narrowed by 0.9 percentage points from April [1]. Group 2: Government Bond Contributions - Government bonds accounted for the largest contribution to social financing this year, with net financing of 6.31 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan year-on-year [1]. - The issuance of replacement bonds by various levels of government is expected to correspond to approximately 2.3 trillion yuan in replaced loans [1]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Adjustments - The State Council approved a plan to improve the credit repair system, which aims to enhance liquidity for enterprises and households by addressing accounts receivable issues [2]. - The total accounts receivable for large industrial enterprises reached 26.06 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase [2]. - The article suggests that removing policies that hinder mergers, acquisitions, and bankruptcies will strengthen supply chain governance and reduce financial costs for enterprises [2][3]. Group 4: Supply Chain Financial Services - There is significant room for growth in supply chain finance, as evidenced by a 1.343 trillion yuan increase in non-discounted bank acceptance bills in the first five months, with a notable decline in May [2][3]. - The article highlights the need for government incentives to improve supply chain financial services and ensure that commitments regarding accounts receivable are honored [3]. Group 5: Household Financial Structure - The article calls for the modification of systems to facilitate adjustments in household asset-liability structures, including the introduction of personal bankruptcy mechanisms [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of addressing risks within the economic system to ensure that government, enterprises, and households can manage and sustain their debts effectively [4].

2025年6月，河北省跨境电子商务协会副会长、鲸驰集团CEO吴静波应邀前往广电孵化基地进行座谈交流。此次座谈围绕国内电商、跨境电商、国际贸易、 境外仓储、供应链及金融、AI大模型等多领域展开，持续了四个小时，内容丰富且深入。 座谈中，吴静波首先分享了鲸驰集团在国内电商领域的布局与创新。他指出，随着市场竞争的加剧，国内电商需要更加注重用户体验和服务质量，同时借助 大数据和AI技术实现精准营销和个性化推荐。他还提到，鲸驰集团通过优化供应链管理，实现了产品的快速响应和高效配送，提升了市场竞争力。 在供应链及金融方面，吴静波指出，供应链的稳定性和金融支持是企业发展的基石。鲸驰集团通过与金融机构合作，建立了完善的供应链金融体系，为企业 提供了充足的资金支持，同时也保障了供应链的稳定运行。 最后，吴静波着重介绍了AI大模型在电商领域的应用。他提到，鲸驰集团正在积极探索AI大模型在智能客服、智能推荐、数据分析等方面的应用，通过AI 技术提升企业的运营效率和用户体验。他还分享了AI技术在跨境电商中的应用案例，展示了其在语言翻译、市场分析等方面的优势。 在跨境电商方面，吴静波详细介绍了鲸驰集团的国际化战略。他强调，跨境电商是企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent focus on standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days by leading automotive companies has reignited discussions around supply chain financial tools, particularly accounts receivable electronic certificates and their potential regulation [1][4][18]. Summary by Sections Supplier Payment Terms - Nearly 20 automotive companies have announced a unified payment term of 60 days for suppliers, but concerns remain regarding the calculation rules and payment methods [1][4]. - The revised "Regulations on Payment of Funds to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" emphasizes that large enterprises must pay within 60 days and cannot force small suppliers to accept non-cash payment methods [5][19]. Supply Chain Financial Tools - Accounts receivable electronic certificates were initially designed to alleviate "triangle debts" in the supply chain and help small enterprises with financing issues, but their misuse has raised concerns [2][10]. - The market for accounts receivable electronic certificates is projected to reach 4.4 trillion yuan by 2024, with financing amounts around 3 trillion yuan [12]. Payment Methods and Their Impact - The reliance on commercial bills (商票) varies among companies, with some like BYD and GAC using them more extensively, while others like BAIC and SAIC have committed to eliminating them [3][6][7]. - The average accounts payable turnover days for major automotive companies exceed 100 days, indicating a significant delay in payments [8][16]. Regulatory Developments - New regulations have been implemented to tighten the use of supply chain financial tools, aiming to ensure that payment terms are clear and that the tools are not misused to extend payment periods [18][19]. - The recent regulations also highlight the importance of a genuine trade background for electronic certificates and set a maximum payment term of one year [19]. Future Outlook - The future of accounts receivable electronic certificates remains uncertain, but a complete ban across the industry is unlikely due to their established demand and the scale of their use by core enterprises [18][20]. - The industry is moving towards a model that emphasizes data credit over core enterprise credit, which may lead to healthier competition and development of various financial tools [21].

Core Viewpoint - The recent focus on standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days by leading automotive companies has reignited discussions around supply chain financial tools, particularly accounts receivable electronic certificates, which have faced scrutiny for their potential misuse and lack of regulation [1][19]. Summary by Sections Supplier Payment Terms - Nearly 20 automotive companies have announced a unified payment term of 60 days for suppliers, but concerns remain regarding the calculation rules and payment methods [1][4]. - The revised "Regulations on Ensuring Payment to Small and Medium Enterprises" has been implemented, mandating large enterprises to pay within 60 days of delivery [4][5]. Supply Chain Financial Tools - Accounts receivable electronic certificates were initially designed to alleviate "triangle debts" in the supply chain and help small businesses with financing challenges [2][14]. - The market for accounts receivable electronic certificates is projected to reach 4.4 trillion yuan by 2024, with financing amounts around 3 trillion yuan [13]. Payment Methods and Their Implications - Some companies, like BAIC and SAIC, have committed to eliminating commercial acceptance bills (商票) as a payment method, which has been criticized for increasing supplier financial pressure [6][7]. - The use of commercial bills is relatively low among major automotive companies, with a significant reliance on bank bills instead [7][8]. Regulatory Developments - New regulations have been introduced to tighten the use of supply chain financial tools, particularly focusing on the transparency and duration of payment terms [19][20]. - The recent regulations emphasize the need for a real trade background and set a principle that payment terms for electronic certificates should generally not exceed 6 months [20]. Industry Challenges - The accounts receivable electronic certificates have been criticized for potentially extending payment periods, with some certificates having terms as long as 2 years [16][17]. - The financial strain on small suppliers is exacerbated by the reliance on core enterprises, which can manipulate payment terms to their advantage [15][21]. Future Outlook - The future of accounts receivable electronic certificates remains uncertain, but the demand for such tools is expected to persist, albeit with increased regulation [19][20]. - The industry is moving towards a model that emphasizes data credit over core enterprise credit, which may lead to healthier competition and development of various financial tools [21].

Group 1 - The annual "618" e-commerce promotion is approaching, and many merchants are in a critical inventory preparation phase, facing challenges with financing needs and long payment cycles [1] - Financial institutions have launched innovative products to address merchants' financing needs, such as "Fengrongtong," which offers instant online applications and flexible borrowing options [1] - "Fengrongtong" has provided over 8.5 billion yuan in financing support to more than 90 distributors in key industries like home appliances, liquor, and milk powder, helping companies shorten their capital turnover cycles [1] Group 2 - This year's "618" sees banks focusing on deepening service scenarios rather than engaging in a price war over loan interest rates, as consumer loan rates have been declining [2] - Financial institutions recognize that competing on interest rates is not sustainable and are instead enhancing products and services to better support the entire consumption-related supply chain [2] - The logistics sector is identified as a crucial entry point for financial institutions to improve services, as it connects merchants and consumers and plays a vital role in trade circulation [2] Group 3 - The commercial circulation industry is characterized by its asset-light nature, leading to challenges in securing financing due to a lack of collateral [3] - The industry has a high demand for cash flow and relies heavily on external financial resources, particularly bank credit, to sustain development [3] - Financial institutions are innovating various business models to support the logistics sector, with customized financial service solutions being developed for different logistics enterprises [3] Group 4 - Overall, support from bank credit for the commercial circulation industry remains insufficient, with issues of information asymmetry hindering accurate assessments of companies' situations [4] - Banks suggest that commercial enterprises leverage their vast data advantages and collaborate with upstream and downstream partners to create a systematic supply chain finance ecosystem [4]

Core Insights - Major automotive companies are standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days, raising concerns about the implications for supply chain finance tools [1][2] - The implementation of new regulations aims to address the long payment cycles and "triangular debt" issues faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [3][4] - The market for accounts receivable electronic certificates is projected to reach 4.4 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating significant demand for this financial tool [11] Group 1: Payment Terms and Regulations - Nearly 20 automotive companies have committed to a unified payment term of 60 days, but many have not clarified the calculation rules for this period [1][5] - The revised "Regulations on Payment of Funds to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" mandates that large enterprises must pay within 60 days of delivery, prohibiting the use of non-cash payment methods to extend payment terms [3][4] - The new regulations are seen as a response to the increasing scale of accounts receivable, which reached nearly 26 trillion yuan by April 2023, with an average recovery period of 70.3 days [4] Group 2: Supply Chain Finance Tools - The discussion around the exclusion of accounts receivable electronic certificates from supply chain finance tools has emerged, with some advocating for a complete ban on such tools [2][9] - The accounts receivable electronic certificate was initially designed to alleviate financing difficulties for SMEs but has faced criticism for being misused by some core enterprises [11][12] - The recent regulations emphasize the need for a real trade background and set a maximum payment term of one year for electronic certificates, aiming to enhance transparency and accountability [16][17] Group 3: Industry Impact and Future Outlook - The automotive sector's shift towards standardized payment terms is viewed as a positive signal, but the actual impact will depend on the clarity of the payment cycle calculation [8][16] - The reliance on non-cash payment methods, such as commercial bills and electronic certificates, remains a concern, particularly for SMEs facing cash flow pressures [6][8] - The future of accounts receivable electronic certificates is uncertain, with industry experts suggesting that while there is a need for regulation, a complete ban is unlikely due to the existing demand [16][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for the government, enterprises, and households to recognize and manage risks effectively to facilitate economic growth and credit liberation [5] - The latest financial data from the central bank shows that the total social financing increment for the first five months reached 18.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan year-on-year [1] - Government bonds have contributed significantly to social financing, with net financing of 6.31 trillion yuan in the first five months, which is a year-on-year increase of 3.81 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The State Council approved a plan to improve the credit repair system, which aims to enhance liquidity for enterprises and households by restructuring and revitalizing government assets [2] - The total accounts receivable for large industrial enterprises reached 26.06 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase [2] - There is a need to clear policies that hinder corporate mergers and acquisitions, and to strengthen supply chain governance to alleviate credit pressure on leading enterprises [2][3] Group 3 - The government is encouraged to use fiscal subsidies to motivate financial institutions and enterprises to enhance supply chain financial services, thereby injecting liquidity into the real economy [3] - Improving the corporate merger and bankruptcy restructuring system is essential for allowing non-viable companies to exit the market, which will enhance overall credit ratings [3] - For households, it is crucial to modify systems to facilitate adjustments in asset-liability structures and to promote personal bankruptcy mechanisms [3]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is experiencing a collective commitment from 17 major car manufacturers to limit payment terms to 60 days, which is seen as a positive step towards alleviating the long-standing issue of extended payment periods that have strained the supply chain [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Response and Context - The commitment to a 60-day payment term was initiated by major manufacturers like China FAW, Dongfeng Motor, and GAC Group, with many others following suit, reflecting a response to the financial pressures faced by suppliers due to prolonged payment cycles [2][3]. - The automotive market is currently facing a price war, with manufacturers attempting to transfer financial pressure onto suppliers through extended payment terms, exacerbating cash flow issues across the supply chain [2][3]. - The recent revision of the "Regulations on Payment of Funds to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" by the State Council mandates that large enterprises must pay small and medium-sized enterprises within 60 days, influencing the industry's shift towards shorter payment terms [6][19]. Group 2: Challenges and Concerns - Despite the optimistic outlook, industry experts caution that the implementation of the 60-day payment term may face significant challenges, including unclear payment calculation methods and potential financial strain on manufacturers [4][9]. - Many manufacturers have high accounts payable turnover days, with an average of 182 days for domestic listed car companies, significantly higher than their international counterparts, indicating a deeper cash flow management issue [7][8]. - The financial structure of many car manufacturers is heavily reliant on accounts payable, with some companies like Seres having over 82% of their liabilities tied to accounts payable, raising concerns about their ability to meet the new payment commitments [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The cash flow situation for many manufacturers is precarious, with several companies reporting negative operating cash flow, which could hinder their ability to comply with the new payment terms [8][9]. - For instance, BYD's accounts payable for the first quarter of 2025 amounted to approximately 250.77 billion yuan, and if payment terms are shortened to 60 days, they would need to pay around 125 billion yuan to suppliers, creating a significant cash flow challenge [8]. - The reliance on financial instruments like commercial acceptance bills and bank acceptance bills for payments could further complicate the situation, as these methods often extend the actual payment period beyond the stated 60 days [12][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - Industry experts suggest that manufacturers may need to negotiate phased adjustments to payment terms with suppliers and optimize internal settlement processes to effectively implement the 60-day payment commitment [18][19]. - The potential for improved cash flow and reduced financial strain on suppliers could lead to a healthier supply chain ecosystem, benefiting both manufacturers and their suppliers in the long run [19][20]. - The overall goal is to enhance the quality of development within the automotive industry, moving away from a focus on volume growth towards a more sustainable and collaborative approach [19][20].