日本央行行长植田和男：目前难以判断关税不确定性的程度何时会降低。 ...

日央行维持利率不变应对关税不确定性 日元小幅回落 金十数据5月1日讯，由于美国关税带来的不确定性加剧，日本央行维持利率不变，美元兑日元走高。由 于特朗普的贸易战推动了对美国资产的抛售以及避险需求增加，日元在过去四个月连续上涨，上周达到 了自去年九月以来的最高水平。根据美国商品期货交易委员会的数据，投机性交易者对日元的净多头头 寸最近攀升至历史高位。考虑到地缘政治的不确定性以及近期日元的强势，市场将密切关注日本央行行 长植田和男在下午的新闻发布会上对未来加息的任何指导。知情人士上月表示，日本央行官员认为，在 等待更多数据分析关税影响的过程中，没有必要改变逐步加息的立场。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

关税不确定性阴云笼罩，通用汽车尽管一季度业绩超预期，但宣布取消年度指引，同时暂停股票回购计 划，就连财报电话会时间也有所推迟。 周二美股盘前，通用汽车公布一季度业绩，营收和每股收益均超预期，具体来看： 调整后每股收益2.78美元，上年同期2.62美元，超出预估2.72美元； 净销售额和营收440.2亿美元，同比增长2.3%，预估430.3亿美元，部分得益于消费者在价格 上涨前抢购。 对于超出预期的表现，部分受益于消费者的提前抢购，福特和Stellantis均提供折扣吸引消费者，考克斯 汽车3月新车销量环比和同比增长。 通用汽车首席财务官保罗·雅各布森在媒体电话会议上表示： 毫无疑问，汽车行业受益于一些客户在潜在关税生效前购买汽车的提前需求，尤其是在3月 份。这种强劲的需求环境一直持续到4月份，我们看到美国市场的交付量较去年同期增长了 20%以上。 取消年度指引，暂停股票回购计划 然而，由于关税不确定性，通用汽车取消年度指引，并且暂停股票回购计划。 净利润下降6.6%至28亿美元，调整后息税前利润34.9亿美元，较去年同期下降9.8%，但仍略 高于预期的34.5亿美元。 然而，超预期的季度数据掩盖不了未来的阴云 ...

分析师：关税不确定性令美元难以大幅回升 金十数据4月29日讯，美元虽现涨势，但在美国关税政策前景不明朗背景下仍难实现实质性复苏。对美 国可能与其他国家达成贸易协议的乐观情绪略微帮助了美元。月末资金流动引发的投资组合调整也可能 产生利好。但Pepperstone策略师Michael Brown在报告中说，美元仍然 "缺乏吸引力"，美国例外论叙事 已经失效。他表示，美元是受持续贸易不确定性影响最大的资产。 ...

财经网站Forexlive分析师Justin Low评论德国5月GfK消费者信心指数称，这是一个不错的进步，但GfK 警告说，关税的不确定性仍在很大程度上影响着更广泛的前景。因此，这将是未来几个月需要考虑的更 大因素。 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 核心结论 关税不确定性使财政扩张的必要性增加，我们提示二季度或有几个边际变化： 1 、 二季度财政或加速发行既定债务 ，增量债务或随时接续（经验规律： 增量债务政策 多在 6 月底 ~10 月底 ）； 2 、财政扩张方向或 由一季度偏消费到二季度边际倾斜投资 ； 3 、 基于既定政策测算， 二季度广义财政支出增速或在 -0.6%~10.4% 附近 （ 今年一季度为 4.3% ， 2019~2024 年二季度均值为 1.8% ；均为不考虑中央金融机构注资特别国债、用于化债的特殊新增专项债 的同口径比较）， 若新增专项债极限提速 （如首个出台专项债"自审自发"方案的省份湖南要求"原则上 6 月底前完成全年专项债券发行工作"； 2018 年 8 月中美贸易争端升级后，财政部要求在两个月内发完全年 额度） 或增量债务接续，增速或更高。 一、财政扩张的规律：二季度或加速发行既定债务，增量债务或随时接续 债务是支持财政扩张的重要力量，每年可分为既定债务和增量债务。既定债务规模由预算确定 ...

欧洲央行管委霍尔茨曼：降息必须等待更多关税不确定性消除之后才能实施。 ...

美联储理事沃勒：总体的基调是许多公司因为关税不确定性而陷入停滞。 ...

马来西亚央行行长：马来西亚因关税不确定性或需下调经济增长预期。 ...