一季度营收同比提升，大客户销量短期承压影响业绩释放。拓普集团2024年营收266.0 亿元，同比 +35.0%，归母净利润30.0 亿元，同比+38.9%，扣非净利润27.3 亿元，同比+35.0%；25Q1 拓普集团实现 营收57.7 亿元，同比+1.4%，环比-20.4%（特斯拉25Q1 销量33.7 万辆，同比-13%；问界销量4.5 万辆， 同比-46%），归母净利润5.7 亿元，同比-11.6%，环比-26.2%，扣非净利润4.9 亿元，同比-18.4%，环 比-31.0%。 研发投入持续，静待公司业绩回暖。费用层面，25Q1 拓普集团销售/管理/研发费用率分别为 1.2%/3.3%/5.9%，同比分别-0.2/+0.6/+1.4pct，环比分别+0.6/+1.2/+0.9pct，其中研发费用有所提升预计 主要系公司新产品（机器人、汽车电子相关）和新技术的持续投入；25Q1 拓普集团毛利率为19.9%， 同比-2.5pct，环比+0.1pct，预计主要系产品结构变化、规模效应缩窄、产品价格波动等因素所致； 25Q1 公司经营活动现金净流量8.9 亿元（24Q1 为5.8 亿元）；25Q1 拓普集团净 ...

盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.54、0.69、0.86 元（原 2025-2026 年 预测值为 0.81、0.97 元，调整原因主要系电线电缆行业整体承压，公司为保证市场 份额毛利率有所受损），结合可比公司估值水平，给予公司 2025 年 32 倍市盈率， 对应目标价为 17.28 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游电缆需求不及预期；产能投放不及预期；行业竞争加剧导致产品价格下降；机 器人业务发展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 15,121 | 17,761 | 21,701 | 23,408 | 25,224 | | 同比增长 (%) | 3.0% | 17.5% | 22.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 608 | 379 | 602 | 772 | 960 | | 同比增长 (%) | 33.3% | -37.7% | 59.1 ...

Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry Overview - Lithium salt prices have slightly decreased, with carbonate lithium priced at 68,000 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan/ton from two weeks ago [1][6] - Prices for lithium iron phosphate, electrolyte, and ternary cathode have also declined, while separator and anode prices remain stable [1][6] - The prices for square ternary power cells, lithium iron power cells, and energy storage cells have decreased slightly, with the 100Ah energy storage cell priced at 0.355 yuan/Wh, down 0.005 yuan/Wh [1][6] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - In Q1 2025, the profitability of dynamic storage batteries remained relatively stable, while consumer batteries faced pressure due to export tax rebates [2] - The demand for dynamic storage batteries is expected to improve in Q2 2025, with better operating rates and the positive impact of export tax rebates [2] - The profitability of lithium iron phosphate companies is under pressure due to rising raw material prices, and attention should be paid to the cost transmission of processing fees [2] Group 3: New Product Developments - CATL has launched several new battery products, including the second-generation supercharging battery with a range exceeding 800 km and a peak charging power of 830 kW [3] - The sodium battery features an energy density exceeding 175 Wh/kg and maintains over 90% capacity at -40°C, demonstrating safety under extreme conditions [3] - Solid-state battery industrialization is progressing, with various companies announcing successful developments and collaborations in this area [3] Group 4: Sales Data for New Energy Vehicles - In March, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.237 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40% and a month-on-month increase of 39% [4] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 42.4%, up 9.7 percentage points year-on-year [4] - In Europe, new energy vehicle sales in March totaled 286,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 26% [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies leading in low-altitude economy and robotics, solid-state battery materials, and consumer battery sectors are recommended for investment [7] - Key players in the charging pile industry and electric bicycle lead-acid battery sectors are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. "tariff war" and the record-high defense budget proposal of $1 trillion for the fiscal year 2026, which is a 12% increase from 2025, highlighting potential investment opportunities in the military and defense sectors amid rising geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 1: Military Technology Trends - The focus on military automation and intelligence is emphasized, with the U.S. defense budget prioritizing AI military capabilities. The emergence of unmanned and intelligent equipment is transforming combat systems, indicating a shift towards autonomous decision-making in military operations [5]. - The acceleration of next-generation weaponry development is anticipated, particularly in strategic weapons, as global military competition intensifies. The ongoing geopolitical conflicts are expected to increase the urgency for countries to enhance their strategic weapon reserves [6]. - The deep-sea military presence is becoming crucial, with nations expanding their underwater monitoring networks to secure maritime resources and trade routes amid rising international competition [7]. Group 2: Material and Technology Development - The tariff increases are driving advancements in 3D printing and recycled materials in the military sector, as companies seek to reduce costs through innovative material manufacturing processes [7]. - The push for self-sufficiency in high-end military electronics and integrated circuits is accelerating, with the domestic semiconductor industry expected to benefit from the ongoing tariff situation, leading to increased market opportunities [8]. - The commercial space sector is rapidly developing integrated aerospace and satellite internet applications, with significant competition from global players like SpaceX, indicating a growing market for satellite technology [8]. Group 3: Economic and Industrial Impacts - The tariff situation is prompting a shift towards domestic production of large aircraft, with the C919 gaining attention due to increased costs associated with U.S. aircraft imports. This shift is expected to enhance the competitiveness of domestically produced aircraft in international markets [9]. - The low-altitude economy is emerging as a new growth engine for local economies, with various regions in China developing low-altitude economic platforms to stimulate industrial transformation [10]. - The robotics industry is becoming a key driver of domestic demand growth, supported by government policies and market needs, with AI-driven automation projected to contribute significantly to GDP growth [11]. - The military trade sector is expected to grow as China's production capabilities improve, with a shift from focusing solely on domestic needs to exploring international markets due to changing global demand dynamics [12].

Core Viewpoint - Company anticipates growth in profitability driven by special bearings, high-end consumer bearings, superhard materials, and composite superhard materials, focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green transformation [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 703 million, an increase of 10.48% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 88.48 million, up 3.46%; earnings per share rose to 0.1673, a 2.58% increase [4][6] - The company has a debt ratio of 33.57% and a gross profit margin of 29.81% [6] Shareholder Information - As of April 30, 2025, the company had 43,499 shareholders [3] - The company is aware of the low presence of institutional investors among its top shareholders and is taking measures to improve market communication and enhance company value [5] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on developing its new materials sector, particularly in diamond functional applications, which is expected to become a significant business pillar in the next 3-5 years [2] - The company is considering mergers and acquisitions as a growth strategy when suitable opportunities arise [5] Market Position - The company has developed a series of bearings for industrial robots and is exploring market opportunities in the robotics sector [6] - The company aims to enhance its market competitiveness and profitability to attract more long-term investors [5] Analyst Ratings - Recently, one institution has given a buy rating for the stock [7] - Financing data indicates a net inflow of 74.62 million in the last three months, with an increase in financing balance [8]

国机精工集团股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025—003 3.问：公司本期盈利水平如何？ 答：公司 2025 年一季度营业收入 7.03 亿元，较同期增加 10.48%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 0.88 亿元，较同期增长 3.46%；每股收益 0.1673 元/股，较同期增加 2.58%。 4.问：蒋总您好！贵公司目前货币资金有 23 亿左右，未来 会考虑收购兼并吗？ 答：并购是企业发展的一种路径，公司一直予以关注，在有 合适的标的和合适的时机下，公司会通过外延并购方式促进公司 发展。 5.问：蒋总您好！目前贵公司的轴承业务是否与机器人公司 在技术或者商务方面有接触？未来是否会考虑切入机器人赛 道？ | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系 | □媒体采访 ☑业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | 活动类别 | □现场参观 □电话会议 | | | □其他 | | 参与单位名称 | 国机精工 2024 年度业绩说明会采用网络远程方式进行，面向全 | | 及人员姓名 | 体投资者 | | 时间 | 2025 年 5 月 6 日 15:3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the robotics industry is accelerating its industrialization process, with a focus on T-chain robotics and highly intelligent main engine manufacturers [2] - The China Securities Index for robotics (H30590) has seen a strong increase of 2.34%, with notable individual stocks like Xinjie Electric (603416) rising by 10.00% and Haimu Star (688559) by 7.61% [1] - The Robot ETF fund (562360) has also experienced a rise of 2.36%, marking its third consecutive increase, with a latest price of 0.95 yuan [1] Group 2 - The market is beginning to recognize the scarcity of full-loop capabilities in both hardware and software for domestic humanoid robots, which have shown significant technological breakthroughs [2] - Concerns regarding tariff issues have eased, leading to a potential rebound for T-chain stocks [2] - Experts indicate that while hardware is relatively easier to solve, the real challenge lies in developing highly intelligent general-purpose AI models for humanoid robots [2]

从应用侧看人形机器人的发展变化 20250505 摘要 • 国内人形机器人产业迎来关键发展阶段，预计 2025 年产销将达上万台， 主要应用于自研自产、数据采集、科研及商业展示，但批量化终端市场应 用订单仍相对较少，如工厂搬运和电力巡检等。 • 人形机器人在灵巧手、柔性连接、动作流训练和泛化能力方面面临瓶颈， 模型迭代和数据缺乏限制了其在复杂应用场景中的表现，亟需从核心部件 视角向功能角度转变，以实现批量化生产和广泛应用。 • 政策扶持力度加大，中央和地方政府设立多个人形机器人基金，总额达数 百亿，用于支持核心零部件产业链和下游应用，并成立创新中心，推动技 术创新和市场拓展，为产业发展注入动力。 • 未来人形机器人在工厂辅助生产环节（如短程搬运和柔性连接任务）以及 标准化场景（如轮式或特种机器人）中具有广阔应用前景，通过提高效率、 优化成本，实现规模化应用。 • 电力巡检领域有望成为人形机器人示范应用场景，通过灵巧手和手眼协同 能力，完成设备状态监测和故障修复，解决传统人工巡检效率低、易出错 的问题，多家厂商正积极探索落地应用。 Q&A 如何看待国产供应链在推动人形机器人发展中的作用？ 目前对于人形机器人的认 ...

【国泰海通电新徐强团队】外骨骼最早落地的机器人形态 #外骨骼机器人是一种人机交互的机电动力设备，通过穿戴等外接形式助力实现日常搬运、负重、身体复建等功 能。 根据作用人体部位的不同，目前外骨骼机器人可分为上肢、腰部、下肢（含护膝）及全身外骨骼；根据动力提供 有有源与无源。 #产业趋势：1）军用到民用，工业到C端消费级。 2）刚性/机械外骨骼往柔性外骨骼轻量化 【国泰海通电新徐强团队】外骨骼最早落地的机器人形态 #外骨骼机器人是一种人机交互的机电动力设备，通过穿戴等外接形式助力实现日常搬运、负重、身体复建等功 能。 #政策支持：1）工信部、发改委等部门在2016年发布的《》，其中提到在行动障碍人群中开展外骨骼机器人试点 示范。 2）2016年，国务院《》将外骨骼机器人研发作为康复辅助器具产业的重点发展方向。 #产业阶段：从0到1，从工业级到消费级迅速扩展前夕。 1）应用一：医院2）应用二：工业领域。 3）应用三：消费级-中老年助行、户外运动。 #市场空间：1）售价在往几十万到几千元，目前估计年出货量10万套。 2）中国有30万名残障人士，65岁以上老年人2亿，户外人群4亿（80后90后占比6成）。 根据作用人体 ...

这一策略的背后，是对机器人产业周期的深刻认知。赵天暘指出："机器人行业的爆发需要时间，尤其 是人形机器人进入家庭场景可能还需5-10年。但一旦关键技术突破，市场规模将远超汽车行业。"他预 计，未来3-5年内，机器人将率先在抢险救灾、工业自动化等领域实现规模化应用，而家庭场景的普及 则需更长时间。 "首程不仅是财务投资者，更是产业生态的共建者。"赵天暘强调。为此，公司专门成立北京首程机器人 科技产业有限公司，为被投企业提供销售代理、融资租赁、供应链管理等服务，加速技术落地与商业化 进程。 据透露，未来2-3年内，首程控股计划每年通过旗下基金平台投资10家以上精选机器人企业，重点布局 三大方向，包括垂直领域创新：包括医疗、工业等细分场景的专用机器人；再者是供应链核心技术：如 关节模块、灵巧手、传感器等关键零部件；以及一些人机交互升级智能体机器人：聚焦情感陪伴、家庭 服务等消费级机器人。 新浪科技讯 5月5日午间消息，近日，积极布局机器人赛道的首程控股在年度股东会后召开媒体交流 会，并携宇树科技、星海图、银河通用、松延动力等多款前沿机器人产品首次亮相香江。 首程控股主席赵天暘在交流会上表示，基金当前账面价值已较原本 ...