证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 06 年 月 日 投资策略 A 股 25Q1 盈利与供需特征如何？——25Q1 财报分析（一） 一、业绩增长：A 股盈利回升转正，净利率是主要驱动 1.1 业绩增长：A 股盈利 24Q4 进一步下探、25Q1 回升转正 ——全 A/全 A 非金融业绩增速 2024 年四季度进一步下探，2025 年一 季度回升转正。全 A/全 A 非金融 25Q1 归母净利润同比分别为 3.58%/4.28%，环比分别变动 5.94/17.26pct；全 A/全 A 非金融 24Q4 归 母净利润同比分别为-2.36%/-12.99%，环比分别变动-2.30/-5.75pct。 ——上市板看，主板业绩保持韧性、创业板业绩弹性较强；宽基指数看， 大盘业绩增速小幅回落，中小盘盈利明显修复；行业风格看，科技 TMT、 可选消费、中游制造业绩占优，中游制造、科技 TMT、上游资源增速改善。 1.2 营收增长：A 股营收增速连续两期修复，但仍小幅负增 ——全 A/全 A 非金融营收增速连续两期修复，但仍小幅负增。全 A/全 A 非金融 25Q1 营业收入同比分别为-0 ...

银行财报中的选股线索 20250505 摘要 • 2025 年一季度，国有行、股份行净利润同比分别下降 1.9%和 2.0%，区 域行增长 5.1%。国有行受重定价和信贷投放影响，股份行受资产增速放 缓影响，区域行受益于经济较好区域的展业。 • 股份行信贷需求偏弱，非息收入受债市冲击大，区域行受益于经济景气区 域，资产增速较高，净利息收入保持稳定。中小行存款压力放缓，有助于 稳定净息差。 • 上市银行手续费收入降幅收窄，受益于经济企稳和理财产品需求增加。非 利息收入总体负增长，股份制和区域性银行降幅较大，受浮盈减少影响。 • 国有控股和股份制银行扩表速度下降，受信贷需求和打击资金空转影响。 同业存款降息导致大型银行负债流失，存款增速放缓。 • 整体资产质量平稳，对公信贷稳定，但信用卡和消费信用贷不良率上升。 零售信贷压力增长可能阻碍拨备释放，影响利润增长。 • 招商银行一季度营收和利润同比下降，但资产质量保持稳健，不良净生成 率下降，负债成本控制良好，拨备覆盖率维持高位，显示出穿越周期的能 力。 • 渣打银行一季度业绩良好，净利润和营收均增长，非息收入超预期，但信 贷减值支出增加。关税对渣打银行和汇丰银行的中 ...

Core Insights - Mueller Water Products (MWA) reported revenue of $364.3 million for the quarter ended March 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 3.1% and a surprise of +4.67% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $348.05 million [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period was $0.34, compared to $0.30 a year ago, resulting in an EPS surprise of +6.25% against the consensus estimate of $0.32 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Net Sales for Water Management Solutions were $148.10 million, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of $153.50 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of +0.3% [4] - Net Sales for Water Flow Solutions reached $216.20 million, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of $194.50 million, with a year-over-year change of +5.1% [4] - Adjusted operating income for Corporate was reported at -$15.50 million, worse than the -$14.50 million estimated by analysts [4] - Adjusted operating income for Water Management Solutions was $31.30 million, slightly above the $31 million estimated by analysts [4] - Adjusted operating income for Water Flow Solutions was $54.10 million, surpassing the $52.50 million estimated by analysts [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Mueller Water Products have returned +17% over the past month, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Verisk (VRSK) is set to release its Q1 fiscal 2025 results on May 7, with expectations of revenue growth and earnings increase compared to the previous year [1][2][4]. Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Verisk's revenues is $745 million, reflecting a 6.5% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. - Revenue estimates from the United States are projected at $612.4 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 5.4% [3]. - Expected revenues from the U.K. are $55.7 million, showing a 7.3% increase from the prior year [3]. - Revenues from other countries are estimated to rise by 13.5% to $80.6 million [3]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $1.67, suggesting a 2.5% growth from the previous year's figure [4]. - Strong margin expansion is anticipated to contribute positively to the bottom line [4]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model indicates that Verisk may not achieve an earnings beat this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -2.34% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [5].

Core Viewpoint - Mettler-Toledo International (MTD) reported strong first-quarter 2025 results, with a positive outlook driven by growth in the laboratory business and recent innovations, despite a year-over-year decline in earnings and sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings for Q1 2025 were $8.19 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.67%, although this represents a 7.9% decline year-over-year [1]. - Net sales reached $883.744 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1%, but declined 5% on a reported basis and 3% on a local currency basis compared to the previous year [2]. Segment Performance - MTD's revenues were categorized into three segments: Laboratory Instruments ($500 million, 56.6% of net sales), Industrial Instruments ($341 million, 38.6%), and Food Retail ($42 million, 4.8%) [3]. - The Laboratory and Industrial segments experienced a year-over-year decline of 3% and 1% respectively in local currency, while the Food Retail segment saw a 12% decrease [3]. Geographic Sales Breakdown - Sales distribution included $378 million (42.8%) from the Americas, $248 million (28.1%) from Europe, and $258 million (29.2%) from Asia/Rest of the World [4]. - Year-over-year sales in the Americas and Asia/Rest of the World declined by 1% and 2% respectively, while Europe experienced a 7% decline [4]. Operating Results - The gross margin improved to 59.6%, an increase of 40 basis points year-over-year [5]. - Research & development (R&D) expenses were $46.3 million, a slight decrease of 0.1% from the previous year, while selling, general & administrative (SG&A) expenses rose by 3.6% to $242.8 million [5]. - The adjusted operating margin was reported at 26.8%, down 210 basis points from the prior year [6]. Balance Sheet & Cash Flow - As of March 31, 2025, Mettler-Toledo had cash and cash equivalents of $64.291 million, an increase from $59.362 million at the end of 2024 [7]. - Long-term debt stood at $1.89 billion, with cash generated from operating activities at $194.5 million, down from $266.2 million in the previous quarter [7]. Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, Mettler-Toledo expects sales to increase by 0-1% in local currency compared to the previous year, with adjusted earnings projected between $9.45 and $9.70 per share, reflecting a growth rate of down 2% to up 1% [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 revenues is $949.6 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 0.3%, while the consensus for earnings is $10.22 per share, representing a 5.91% increase from the previous year [9]. - For the full year 2025, Mettler-Toledo anticipates a sales increase of approximately 1% to 2% in local currency compared to 2024, with adjusted earnings expected between $41.25 and $42 per share, indicating 0-2% growth [10].

Core Insights - ICF International reported a revenue of $487.62 million for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.4% year-over-year, while EPS increased to $1.94 from $1.77 in the previous year [1] - The revenue was slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $487.7 million, resulting in a surprise of -0.02%, whereas the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of $1.74 by +11.49% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the US Federal government was $239.62 million, surpassing the average estimate of $236.82 million from two analysts [4] - Revenue from US State & Local government was $76.87 million, falling short of the average estimate of $86.85 million from two analysts [4] - Commercial revenue reached $144.06 million, exceeding the average estimate of $132.40 million from two analysts [4] - Total revenue from the Government sector was $343.56 million, slightly below the average estimate of $351.86 million from two analysts [4] - International government revenue was $27.08 million, also below the average estimate of $28.19 million from two analysts [4] Stock Performance - ICF shares have returned +1.5% over the past month, contrasting with a -0.5% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Wendy's Company reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 results with earnings meeting expectations but revenues falling short, reflecting a decline in global systemwide sales primarily due to lower same-restaurant sales in the U.S. [1][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were 20 cents, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, down from 23 cents in the prior-year quarter [3] - Total revenues were $523.5 million, missing the consensus mark by 0.1% and declining 2.1% year over year; adjusted revenues (excluding advertising funds) fell 1.6% to $423.1 million [3] - Net income decreased to $39.2 million, down 6.7% from $42 million in the year-ago quarter; adjusted EBITDA totaled $124.5 million, down 2.6% from $127.8 million [8] Sales and Restaurant Performance - Global system-wide sales declined 1.1% year over year, with U.S. sales down 2.6% while international sales increased by 8.9% [5] - Same-restaurant sales in the U.S. fell 2.8% year over year, compared to a 0.6% increase in the prior-year quarter; international same-restaurant sales rose 2.3% [4] Operational Highlights - U.S. company-operated restaurant margin was 14.8%, down 50 basis points year over year due to commodity inflation and labor rate inflation, partially offset by increased average check and labor efficiencies [6] - General and administrative expenses rose 6.9% year over year to $68.2 million, driven by increased employee compensation and benefits [7] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, totaled $335.3 million, down from $450.5 million on December 29, 2024; long-term debt remained at $2.66 billion [9] - Free cash flow is now expected to be between $250 million and $270 million, revised down from a prior estimate of $275 million to $285 million [12] Dividend and Future Outlook - A quarterly dividend of 14 cents per share was declared, payable on June 16, 2025 [10] - The company revised its outlook for global system-wide sales growth to between -2% to flat, and adjusted EBITDA is now predicted to be between $530 million and $545 million [11]

Employment Situation Report - The U.S. added +177K new jobs in April, surpassing the +133K expected by analysts, while the unemployment rate remained at +4.2% [1][2] - Previous months' job numbers were revised down, with March's jobs revised from +228K to +185K and February's from +151K to +117K [2] - Hourly wage growth slowed to +0.2% from +0.3% expected, with year-over-year growth at +3.8%, down 10 basis points from estimates [3] Sector Performance - Education & Health Services led job growth with +70K jobs added, followed by +29K in Transportation & Warehousing and +24K in Leisure & Hospitality [4] - Federal agencies saw a minor job loss of -9K, which was lower than expected due to severance packages associated with recent layoffs [4] Market Reaction - The labor market's resilience is reflected in pre-market index movements, with the Dow up +425 points, S&P 500 up +60 points, and Nasdaq up +215 points [5] Q1 Earnings Reports - ExxonMobil reported earnings of $1.76 per share, beating estimates by 4 cents but missing on revenue [6] - Chevron posted earnings of $2.18 per share, beating estimates by 3 cents but missing revenue expectations by -2% [6] - Shell reported a strong earnings beat of +19.5% ahead of the market opening [6] Company-Specific Earnings - Wendy's reported earnings of 20 cents per share, in line with estimates, but revenues of $523.47 million slightly missed consensus [7] - Piper Sandler achieved a +69% positive earnings surprise with earnings of $4.09 per share and revenues of $383 million, outperforming consensus by +7.8% [8]

Financial Performance - For the quarter ended March 2025, Telephone & Data Systems (TDS) reported revenue of $1.15 billion, down 8.6% year-over-year [1] - EPS came in at -$0.09, compared to $0.10 in the year-ago quarter, representing a significant decline [1] - The reported revenue was a surprise of -3.24% compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.19 billion, and the EPS surprise was -350.00% against the consensus estimate of -$0.02 [1] Key Metrics - US Cellular Postpaid ARPU was $52.06, slightly below the estimated $52.37 [4] - US Cellular Retail Connections Prepaid reported a net loss of 17 thousand, worse than the estimated loss of 13.5 thousand [4] - US Cellular Postpaid Churn rate was 1.2%, matching the average estimate [4] - Total Retail Connections Postpaid at the end of the period was 3.95 million, in line with the average estimate [4] Revenue Breakdown - Operating Revenues for U.S. Cellular were $891 million, below the average estimate of $923.79 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of -6.2% [4] - Operating Revenues for TDS Telecom were $257 million, slightly below the estimated $262.13 million, representing a -3.4% change year-over-year [4] - TDS Telecom Service- Wholesale revenues were $39 million, compared to the average estimate of $42.79 million, indicating an -11.4% year-over-year change [4] - TDS Telecom Service revenues were $256 million, below the estimated $261.09 million, with a -3.9% change year-over-year [4] - Operating Revenues from all other sources were $6 million, significantly below the estimated $10.03 million, representing an -87% change year-over-year [4] - TDS Telecom Service Residential - Wireline, Expansion revenues were $34 million, exceeding the average estimate of $32.20 million, with a year-over-year change of +30.8% [4] - TDS Telecom Service Residential - Cable revenues were $64 million, slightly below the estimated $64.63 million, reflecting an -8.6% change year-over-year [4] - U.S. Cellular Equipment and product sales were $150 million, significantly below the estimated $197.91 million, representing a -23.7% change year-over-year [4] Stock Performance - Shares of TDS have returned -0.6% over the past month, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.5% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Friday, May 2, 2025On this final trading day of the latest Jobs Week, a fresh Employment Situation Report has hit the tape from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the month of April. What we see is a headline +177K new jobs filled last month, above the +133K analysts had expected. The Unemployment Rate remained at +4.2%, as anticipated.While this is a good headline number, with considerably more jobs than needed to make up a wide swath of new retirees (roughly 100K per month), we also see some do ...