Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is expected to experience a震荡向上 (upward fluctuation) at the beginning of the year, driven by a combination of structural bull market factors and improved investor sentiment [2][4][5] - The anticipated balance between external and internal demand will be a significant factor in 2026, with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand becoming increasingly important [2][3] - The spring market is likely to continue its upward trend, supported by improving economic data, ample liquidity, and positive policy signals [4][8] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to see a "开门红" (opening red) at the start of the year, with significant inflows of institutional funds and a favorable liquidity environment [6][10] - The 2026 bull market is characterized by a combination of basic cyclical improvements, new technological trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities [5][8] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from new growth themes, such as AI, renewable energy, and industrial automation, while also considering cyclical recovery opportunities [9][11]

证券研究报告 ※ 核心观点|春季行情可期，主题成长突围 2 A股策略周报: 春季行情可期，主题成长突围 证券分析师 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 蒋炯楠 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120002 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年1月4日 1 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 3 1 近期动态|政策跟踪：2026年"以旧换新"政策优化支持 近一周重要政策梳理 | 日期 | 部门/会议 | 会议/文件/行动 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国家发改委、财政 | 《关于2026年实施大规模设 | 一、推进大规模设备更新。支持设备更新项目、支持老旧营运货车报废更新、支持新能源城市公交车更新、支持老旧农机报 | | 2025-12-29 | | 备更新和消费品以旧换新政 | 废更新。二、实施消费品以旧换新。支持汽车报废更新、支持汽车置换更新、支持家电以旧换新（冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空 | | | 部 | 策的通知》 | 调、电脑、热水器等6类家电）、支持数码和智能产品购新（手机、平板、智能手表手环、智能眼镜等4类产品） | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 [Table_Page] 金融工程|定期报告 2026 年 1 月 4 日 请注意，张钰东并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 金融工程：AI 识图关注化 | 2025-12-28 | | 工、非银、通信和卫星:A 股 | | | 量化择时研究报告 | | | 本周部分因子表现调 | 2025-12-23 | | 整:Alpha 因子跟踪周报 | | | （2025.12.19） | | | 金融工程：AI 识图关注非 | 2025-12-21 | | 银、卫星、化工:A 股量化择 | | | 时研究报告 | | [Table_Title] 金融工程：AI 识图关注化工、非银 A 股量化择时研究报告 | ] [Table_Summary 市场回顾（本期是指 | 2025 年 25 日—2025 31 日） | 12 月 | | 年 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 结构表现 | 中证 沪深 国证 | 中证 | 中证 | ...

Group 1 - Market sentiment score has stabilized at 1.1 as of December 26, indicating a neutral outlook, with signs of improvement in trading activity [7][11][14] - The overall trading volume for the week increased by 11.63% compared to the previous week, with an average daily trading volume of 19,651.66 billion RMB, peaking at 21,811.04 billion RMB on December 26 [14][16] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reaching a new high, indicating an increase in leveraged funds and a recovery in risk appetite [25][27] Group 2 - The short-term scores for industries such as computers, real estate, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery have shown upward trends, with non-ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, and communications having the highest short-term scores of 88.14 [35][36] - The industry trading volatility has decreased, indicating a slowdown in capital switching between sectors, with liquidity marginally tightening [20][22] - The correlation between industry congestion and weekly price changes is positive at 0.16, suggesting that sectors with high congestion, like defense and construction materials, have seen significant gains [39][41] Group 3 - The RSI indicator has shown significant improvement, indicating a reduction in selling pressure and a recovery in upward momentum [28][30] - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI continuing to rise, suggesting potential strengthening of these signals [44][45] - The model's findings highlight that high congestion in sectors can lead to strong price movements but also increases the risk of rapid corrections if market expectations change [38][39]

证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 29 日 部分指标震荡修复，市场情绪有望 筑底 ——量化择时周报 20251228 相关研究 量 化 策 略 - ⚫ 市场情绪得分震荡回升：截至 12 月 26 日，市场情绪指标数值为 1.1，较上周五的 1.1 持 平，情绪得分震荡维稳，从情绪角度来看观点偏中性。从所有分项指标的变化来看，本周 情绪指数综合得分周内有所改善，市场交易活跃度出现反转回升迹象。 ⚫ 情绪出现修复改善，指标分化仍存：本周价量一致性指标周内维持震荡走势，周后段出现 明显回升，较前期有所改善，市场价量匹配程度回升，资金关注度与标的涨幅相关性增强， 情绪端呈现边际回暖；科创 50 相对万得全 A 成交占比延续下行趋势，反映高弹性板块参 与度仍偏低，风险偏好修复仍显不足；行业间交易波动率持续下降并下穿布林带上界，资 金在不同行业间切换节奏放缓，跨行业轮动意愿减弱，流动性边际趋缓；行业涨跌趋势性 指标维持在布林带上界附近震荡，行业观点一致性较 ...

Market Performance Review - In December, all major stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.93%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.77%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.27% as of December 26 [4][13] - The performance varied by style, with stable style down by 0.16%, financial style up by 2.21%, consumption style down by 0.75%, cyclical style up by 5.57%, and growth style up by 5.14% [4][13] - The large-cap index rose by 2.62%, mid-cap index by 5.90%, and small-cap index by 4.47% [4][13] - The market experienced a rebound in the fourth week of December, driven by the appreciation of the RMB and significant net inflows into the A500 ETF [4][13] Industry Insights - The leading sectors in December included defense and military (up 13.75%), communication (up 13.66%), and non-bank financials (up 8.30%), while the weakest sectors were media (down 3.96%) and real estate (down 3.30%) [18] - The focus on themes and events drove the market, with commercial aerospace and Hainan Free Trade Zone being the most prominent themes in December [18] Future Market Outlook - The A-share market in January is expected to face both challenges and opportunities, with attention needed on industry and individual stocks [5][33] - The potential for overseas disturbances, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, could impact market volatility [5][33] - Despite the lack of strong domestic stimulus policies and economic data, there are still strong themes and sectors that can perform well [5][33] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on thematic investments, particularly in commercial aerospace, non-ferrous metals, and consumer sectors [6][33] - The establishment of a commercial aerospace department and the release of a development action plan for commercial aerospace are seen as positive indicators for investment in this sector [6][33] - The report highlights the potential for a continued rally in the non-ferrous sector, particularly gold, driven by rigid demand and upcoming U.S. Treasury bond supply peaks [6][33]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.53% to close at 3940.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.88% to 13486.42 points. The Sci-Tech 50 Index and the ChiNext Index also saw gains of 0.90% and 0.77%, closing at 1352.13 points and 3229.58 points respectively. Overall, 4125 stocks rose, 1132 fell, and 200 remained unchanged, with a total trading volume of 18803 billion yuan, a decrease of 196 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][14]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as defense and military, electronics, building materials, light industry manufacturing, and machinery equipment led the gains, with increases of 2.88%, 2.12%, 1.72%, 1.69%, and 1.49% respectively. Conversely, industries like agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, coal, food and beverage, and banking experienced declines, with decreases of 0.85%, 0.70%, 0.36%, and 0.30% respectively [1][14]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included fiberglass, satellite internet, commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, military information technology, TOPcon batteries, RF and antennas, HBM, copper-clad laminates, 6G, cross-strait integration, large aircraft, aircraft carriers, Apple, and smart speakers [2][11].

（文章来源：证券时报网） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 2.39 | 800.46 | -0.04 | 新劲刚 | 20.02 | | 环保 | 1.35 | 99.35 | -10.99 | 正和生态 | 10.02 | | 机械设备 | 1.18 | 890.59 | -8.14 | *ST新研 | 17.71 | | 建筑材料 | 1.09 | 149.55 | -6.05 | 九鼎新材 | 10.05 | | 轻工制造 | 1.07 | 161.76 | -13.69 | 宏裕包材 | 12.04 | | 计算机 | 1.03 | 560.85 | -11.92 | 广道退 | 23.53 | | 电子 | 0.98 | 2167.99 | 5.76 | 信维通信 | 17.35 | | 基础化工 | 0.73 | 602.01 | 0.32 | 瑞华泰 | 19.98 | | 综合 | 0.70 | 26.11 | -24.2 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 近日，公司完成了法定代表人工商变更登记并取得由马鞍山市市场监督管理局换发的《营业执照》。变 更后的《营业执照》登记的相关信息如下： 统一社会信用代码：91340000737315488L 名称：中钢天源股份有限公司 类型：其他股份有限公司（上市） 公司住所：安徽省马鞍山市雨山区霍里山大道南段9号 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、基本情况 二、工商变更登记情况 中钢天源股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年12月12日召开第八届董事会第九次（临时）会议审 议通过《关于董事长退休辞职暨选举新任董事长的议案》，选举吴刚先生为公司董事长，任期自本次董 事会审议通过之日起至公司第八届董事会任期届满之日为止。根据《公司章程》相关规定，吴刚先生自 当选为公司董事长之日起，为公司法定代表人。具体详见公司于2025年12月13日在《证券时报》《上海 证券报》《中国证券报》及巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）上披露的公告。 法定代表人：吴刚 注册资本：人民币柒亿伍仟叁佰捌拾捌万叁仟柒佰零陆圆 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' related businesses by the National Financial Regulatory Administration has brought incremental funds to the A - share market and boosted market sentiment. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during market adjustments and leveraging the discount structure of stock index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market and Liquidity - Last week, the central bank conducted 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market. With 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day term repurchase expired, and the central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day term repurchase operations. This week, 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, with daily maturities of 107.6 billion yuan, 156.3 billion yuan, 79.3 billion yuan, 180.8 billion yuan, and 139.8 billion yuan from Monday to Friday [2][3]. - Interest rate changes: DR001 closed at 1.30 with a 0.06 - basis - point increase; DR007 at 1.44 with a 0.04 - basis - point increase; GC001 at 1.45 with a 25 - basis - point increase; GC007 at 1.51 with a 2 - basis - point increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.40 with a 0.5 - basis - point decrease; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.63 with a 1.39 - basis - point decrease; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85 with a 2.34 - basis - point decrease; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.14 with a 3 - basis - point increase [3]. Stock Index and Market Performance - Index closing prices and changes: CSI 300 closed at 4585, up 0.84%; SSE 50 at 3002, up 0.93%; CSI 500 at 7098, up 1.21%; CSI 1000 at 7342, up 1.29%. Futures contracts: IF current - month at 4574, up 1.0%; IH current - month at 2997, up 1.0%; IC current - month at 7083, up 1.4%; IM current - month at 7320, up 1.5% [4]. - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF trading volume was 124,819, up 34.8%, and open interest was 277,131, up 5.8%; IH trading volume was 56,681, up 44.3%, and open interest was 99,128, up 13.2%; IC trading volume was 131,971, up 32.2%, and open interest was 260,378, up 6.6%; IM trading volume was 220,452, up 28.1%, and open interest was 376,973, up 5.5% [4]. - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.28% to 4584.5; the SSE 50 rose 1.09% to 3002; the CSI 500 rose 0.94% to 7097.8; the CSI 1000 rose 0.11% to 7342.5. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, non - ferrous metals (5.3%), communication (3.7%), national defense and military industry (2.8%), machinery and equipment (2.8%), and non - bank finance (2.3%) led the gains, while media (- 3.9%), real estate (- 2.2%), food and beverage (- 1.9%), computer (- 1.7%), and textile and apparel (- 1.6%) led the losses. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 1701.6 billion yuan, 1467.1 billion yuan, 1546.5 billion yuan, 1419.2 billion yuan, and 1567.8 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 24.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week [4]. Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium/discount rates: 3.97% for the current - month contract, 5.48% for the current - quarter contract, 3.77% for the next - quarter contract, and 6.73% for the next - month contract; IH premium/discount rates: 3.47% for the current - month contract, 1.65% for the current - quarter contract, 1.72% for the next - quarter contract, and 4.67% for the next - month contract; IC premium/discount rates: 6.27% (not fully clear from the text); IM premium/discount rates: 12.72% for the current - month contract, 12.35% for the current - quarter contract, 9.40% for the next - quarter contract, and 12.41% for the next - month contract [5].