I. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. II. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market performance. It indicates that the economy shows mixed trends, with some sectors improving while others face challenges. For example, the export and import values have increased, but the fixed - asset investment has declined. In the commodity market, there are significant price fluctuations, and in the financial market, various policies and events are influencing the bond, stock, and currency markets [1][2][31]. III. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 (constant price, quarterly YoY) was 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, slightly up from 49.4% in the previous month and the same as last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month and the same as last year [1]. - In September 2025, M0 (currency in circulation) YoY was 11.5%, down from 11.7% in the previous month and the same as last year; M1 (money) YoY was 7.2%, up from 6.0% in the previous month and significantly up from - 3.3% last year; M2 (money and quasi - money) YoY was 8.4%, down from 8.8% in the previous month but up from 6.8% last year [1]. - The CPI in September 2025 was - 0.3% YoY, up from - 0.4% in the previous month but down from 0.4% last year. The PPI was - 2.3% YoY, up from - 2.9% in the previous month but down from - 2.8% last year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative YoY in September 2025 was - 0.5%, down from 0.5% in the previous month and 3.4% last year. The cumulative YoY of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.46%, down from 4.6% in the previous month but up from 3.3% last year [1]. - The export value in September 2025 was 8.3% YoY, up from 4.3% in the previous month and 2.33% last year. The import value was 7.4% YoY, up from 1.2% in the previous month and 0.13% last year [1]. 2. Commodity Investment 2.1 Comprehensive - The Ministry of Commerce held a policy - interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - invested enterprises, emphasizing responsible export control and maintaining global supply - chain stability [2]. - 92 - octane gasoline may return to the 6 - yuan era, with the next price adjustment on October 27. The expected price cut is 320 yuan/ton, and if implemented, it will be a four - year low [2]. - The Chinese government's stance on Sino - US economic and trade issues is to resolve problems through negotiation on an equal, respectful, and reciprocal basis [2]. - Trump plans to visit China early next year, and currently, there is no specific information available [3]. - High - City Sanae was elected as the 104th Prime Minister of Japan, advocating expansionary fiscal policies and increased defense spending [3]. 2.2 Metals - Precious - metal prices tumbled. CitiBank expects gold to enter a volatile phase in the next 3 weeks due to the end of the US government shutdown and eased Sino - US trade frictions. It now has a short - term bearish view on gold, with a 1 - 3 month target price of $4000/ounce [4][5]. - The LME zinc market faces a severe supply shortage, with the spot - to - three - month futures premium reaching a record high since 1997. The LME warehouse inventory is extremely low [5]. - Swiss gold exports in September increased by 37% MoM. CitiBank is bullish on copper and aluminum prices in the medium term, with a 6 - 12 month target price of $12000/ton for copper and $3500/ton for aluminum in 2027 [7]. 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In September 2025, India's crude - oil production decreased by 1.3% YoY, natural - gas production decreased by 3.8% YoY, while steel production increased by 14.1% YoY, cement production increased by 5.3% YoY, power generation increased by 2.1% YoY, fertilizer production increased by 1.6% YoY, and the output of key industries increased by 3.0% YoY [8]. 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The Trump administration plans to purchase 100 million barrels of crude oil for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The US benchmark WTI crude has fallen by about 30% since January [9][10]. - Brazil's national oil company may delineate an oil field in two years and start production in 7 - 8 years if the potential of the Amazon estuary block is confirmed [10]. - South Korea will extend the fuel - tax cut for 2 months until the end of December [10]. - Egypt plans to buy over 1 million tons of diesel, gasoline, and butane gas in November [10]. - Kazakhstan's KARACHAGANAK oil field has reduced production by 8500 - 9000 tons, aiming to lift production restrictions in three days [10]. - The EU plans to stop importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [11]. 2.5 Agricultural Products - A corn pest - control demonstration area in Hohhot achieved a high yield of 1315 kg per mu, with effective pest control and reduced pesticide use [12]. - In September, 373,800 tons of out - of - quota raw sugar arrived in China, and 119,000 tons are expected to arrive in October [12]. - US soybeans are being stored instead of exported, and some farmers may face a financial crisis [13]. - Brazil's October soybean and soybean - meal export volumes are expected to be 7.34 million tons and 2.09 million tons respectively [13]. - As of October 19, the EU's 2025/26 soft - wheat exports were 5.87 million tons, down from 7.45 million tons in the same period last year [13]. 3. Financial News 3.1 Open Market - On October 21, the central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 68.5 billion yuan after 91 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [14]. 3.2 Key News - The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments held meetings to discuss economic and trade issues, emphasizing the importance of maintaining global supply - chain stability and resolving trade issues through negotiation [2][15]. - In the first three quarters, domestic tourism increased by 18% YoY in terms of person - times and 11.5% YoY in terms of spending [16]. - Guangzhou issued a plan to boost consumption, including measures to increase income, improve housing consumption, and promote rural development [17]. - As of June 2025, the trust industry's asset - management scale reached 32.43 trillion yuan, a 20.11% YoY increase [17]. - In September, the real - estate industry's bond financing was 56.1 billion yuan, a 31% YoY increase, with an average interest rate of 2.68% [18]. - Three policy banks have invested nearly 300 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments, expected to drive over 4 trillion yuan in project investment [18]. - Since October, over 10 small and medium - sized banks have cut deposit rates to stabilize interest margins [18]. - As of October 21, 93 panda bonds worth 151.15 billion yuan have been issued this year, and the market is expected to expand [19]. - 16 A - share listed companies plan to use convertible bonds for mergers and acquisitions [19]. - European leaders support a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiation [19]. - The Japanese bond market is experiencing a severe sell - off, and Japanese government bonds have a negative return this year [20]. 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market is oscillating, with most spot - bond yields declining, and long - term bonds performing well. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by nearly 3bp, and Treasury - bond futures rose [21]. - In the exchange - bond market, some bonds rose while others fell, and the real - estate and high - yield urban - investment bond indices had slight increases [21]. - The convertible - bond index rose by 0.99%, and the weighted convertible - bond index rose by 1.29%. Some convertible bonds had significant price changes [21]. - Money - market interest rates showed mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [22]. - The yields of European and US government bonds decreased [24]. 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1171, up 60 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.093, up 43 basis points [26]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.35%, and most non - US currencies fell. The offshore RMB against the US dollar fell 28 basis points [26]. 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the bond - market sentiment is improving, but trading should be cautious. It suggests that trading desks be more active in intraday trading and that allocation desks maintain a neutral position [27]. - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the fourth - quarter fundamentals may weaken slightly, and the bond market will be volatile. It also has a positive long - term view on the stock market [27]. - Shenwan Fixed - Income expects local - government bond issuance to increase in the fourth quarter [27]. - Yangtze River Fixed - Income points out that the inter - bank bond - market leverage has increased slightly, and the funds will remain relatively loose before tax payments and month - end [28]. 4. Stock Market News - On Tuesday, the A - share market rose unilaterally, with technology stocks and some short - term themes performing well. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.02%, with a trading volume of 1.89 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.65%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.26%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.76%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$1.171 billion [32]. - As of October 21, 843 A - share companies announced 850 mid - year dividend plans worth 662.026 billion yuan, with 595 plans already implemented and 255 pending [32].

Group 1 - The US President Trump plans to visit China early next year, emphasizing the importance of high-level diplomatic communication in US-China relations [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce held a video conference with EU officials to discuss key trade issues, including export controls and the EU's anti-subsidy measures against Chinese electric vehicles [2] - The Chinese government is enhancing its export control system in response to international obligations, while urging the Netherlands to resolve semiconductor-related issues to maintain global supply chain stability [2] Group 2 - The precious metals market experienced a significant decline, with spot gold dropping as much as 6.3% to approximately $4080 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in over 12 years [3] - Spot silver fell by 8.7% to $47.89 per ounce, the worst single-day performance since February 2021, driven by reduced safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar [3] - COMEX gold and silver futures also saw substantial declines, with gold futures down 5.07% to $4138.5 per ounce and silver futures down 6.27% to $48.16 per ounce [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable meeting with over 170 foreign enterprises, emphasizing China's commitment to maintaining global supply chain stability through responsible export control measures [4] - Domestic tourism in China saw significant growth, with 4.998 billion trips taken in the first three quarters, an increase of 18% year-on-year, and total spending reaching 4.85 trillion yuan, up 11.5% [4] - The People's Bank of China plans to accelerate legislation in key and emerging areas to enhance the financial legal system and support high-quality financial development [4] Group 4 - The A-share market saw a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.36% to 3916.33 points, driven by interest in technology stocks and consumer themes [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.65% at 26027.55 points, with significant gains in major financial stocks [5] - A total of 843 A-share companies announced mid-term dividend plans, with a total dividend amount of 662.03 billion yuan, indicating a trend of high amounts and frequency of dividends [6] Group 5 - A report predicts that Wuliangye's third-quarter revenue may decline by 30% year-on-year, with net profit expected to drop by 45% [7] - Changxin Storage, a leading Chinese memory chip manufacturer, plans to launch an IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, targeting a valuation of 300 billion yuan [7] - Pop Mart anticipates a 245%-250% year-on-year increase in overall revenue for the third quarter, with significant growth in both domestic and overseas markets [7] Group 6 - China Telecom reported a third-quarter net profit of 7.756 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [9] - Wens Foodstuff Group's third-quarter net profit fell by 65.02%, with a proposed dividend of 3 yuan per share [9] - China Giant Glass reported a 54.06% year-on-year increase in net profit for the third quarter [9] Group 7 - The National Medical Products Administration plans to enhance the legal standards for medical devices and accelerate the approval process for innovative products [10] - The total asset management scale of the trust industry in China is expected to reach 32.43 trillion yuan by June 2025, marking a 20.11% year-on-year growth [10] - Guangzhou has announced plans to develop six core future industries, including intelligent systems and quantum technology [10] Group 8 - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones rising 0.47% while the Nasdaq fell 0.16% [17] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index closed above 49000 points for the first time, reflecting investor optimism regarding the new prime minister's fiscal policies [17] - European stock indices experienced slight gains, supported by strong performances in the technology and luxury goods sectors [17]

★ 宏观动态 ★ 2025年前三季度国内居民出游人次49.98亿，同比增长18.0% 文化和旅游部今天发布2025年前三季度国内旅游市场数据情况。根据国内居民出游抽样调查统计结果，2025年 前三季度，国内居民出游人次49.98亿，比上年同期增加7.61亿，同比增长18.0%。其中，城镇居民国内出游人 次37.89亿，同比增长15.9%；农村居民国内出游人次12.09亿，同比增长25.0%。 广交会带动消费热 广州口岸离境退税金额创历史新高 据央视新闻，第138届广交会正在举行中。截至10月19日17时，已有超15.7万名境外采购商线下参会，为入境 消费带来强劲动力。据广州海关统计，10月1日至10月20日，广州口岸离境退税申请金额超2700万元，同比增 长120%，创历史新高。 广东：支持工业智能算力应用，培育工业软件和智能装备 广东省人民政府办公厅印发《广东省人工智能赋能制造业高质量发展行动方案（2025—2027年）》，鼓励地市 设立"模型券"，支持企业购买工业模型服务。依托专业机构建立工业模型评测体系，评估工业模型综合能力。 支持企业利用韶关数据中心集群、各地市算力基础设施等各类智算资源，训练开发工业 ...

Market Overview - The market shows a clear upward trend with 4,624 stocks rising, indicating a significant overall profit effect [4] - The trading volume has increased by 7.8% to nearly 8 trillion yuan, reflecting heightened market activity, particularly in the Shenzhen market [5] Sector Performance - Strong performance is noted in sectors such as CPO, copper-clad laminates, and consumer electronics, while sectors like electrolytes, coal, and civil aviation are underperforming [4] Fund Flows - Institutional investors are cautiously optimistic, maintaining a high position strategy with over 60% opting for heavy positions in response to market volatility, particularly favoring AI and semiconductor sectors [8] - Retail investors show a mixed sentiment, with some active in specific stocks but overall cautious, leading to a net outflow of retail funds [8] Investor Sentiment - The sentiment among retail investors is at 75.85%, indicating a generally positive outlook despite some hesitance [9] - A significant portion of investors (61.20%) anticipates a market decline in the next trading day, while 38.80% expect an increase [15]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.33 points, up 1.36%, with a trading volume of 837.9 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13077.32 points, up 2.06%, with a trading volume of 1035.96 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3083.72 points, up 3.02%, with a trading volume of 478.86 billion yuan [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 1406.32 points, up 2.81%, with a trading volume of 76.3 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of both markets reached 1873.856 billion yuan, an increase of 136.254 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was observed in sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, construction decoration, real estate, machinery equipment, power equipment, education, media, and environmental protection [3] - Active concepts included shale gas, cultivated diamonds, CPO, oil and gas services, engineering machinery, PCB, Apple, optical communication modules, and storage chips [3] - Only a few sectors, including coal and gas, experienced declines [3] Stock Performance - A total of 4369 stocks rose, while 710 stocks fell, with 72 stocks remaining flat and 8 stocks suspended [3] - Among the stocks that hit the daily limit, 16 had consecutive limit-up days, with Dayou Energy leading with 6 consecutive limit-ups [5] - The net inflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 9.781 billion yuan, with the ChiNext seeing a net inflow of 7.292 billion yuan [6] Individual Stock Highlights - New Yi Sheng had the highest net inflow of main funds at 1.813 billion yuan, followed by Li Xun Precision and Zhong Ji Xu Chuang with 1.596 billion yuan and 1.089 billion yuan respectively [10][11] - Conversely, Changying Precision saw the largest net outflow of main funds at 515 million yuan, followed by Wanrun Technology and Silan Micro with 443 million yuan and 350 million yuan respectively [14][15] Institutional Activity - Institutions had a net sell of approximately 660 million yuan, with Blue Feng Biochemical being the top net buy at 43.345 million yuan [18][19] - The top net sell was Yuan Jie Technology, with a net outflow of approximately 263 million yuan [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the North Exchange market, suggesting a focus on quality stocks that have been undervalued due to market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The North Exchange A-shares experienced a significant decrease in trading volume, with a total transaction amount of 13.89 billion yuan, down by 2.678 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2][4]. - The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1429.28, down 0.25%, with a TTM PE ratio of 67.30 [2][8]. - The report highlights that 187 out of 279 companies listed on the North Exchange saw an increase in their stock prices, while 85 companies experienced declines [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in quality stocks that have been sold off, particularly in the context of the upcoming quarterly earnings reports [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On October 20, the North Exchange A-shares had a trading volume of 13.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.678 billion yuan from the previous day [2][8]. - The North Exchange 50 Index and the specialized new index both fell by 0.25% [2][8]. Stock Performance - The top five gainers included Huifeng Diamond (30.0%), Wangcheng Technology (14.8%), and Beiyikang (11.3%) [2][14]. - The top five decliners were Hongyuan Co. (-6.6%), Gebijia (-5.7%), and Sanxie Electric (-5.7%) [2][14]. Important News - The report notes that the GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with industrial value-added increasing by 6.2% [3][17]. - The report also mentions significant cash management activities by companies such as Huiwei Intelligent and Shisheng Intelligent, indicating a proactive approach to managing idle funds [18][19][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the North Exchange's average PE ratio is declining and is approaching that of the ChiNext, indicating better value for investors [4]. - It highlights the importance of focusing on sectors like technology and synthetic diamonds, which are currently seeing increased activity [4].

Market Overview - On the 21st, all three major A-share indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.36% to 3916.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.06%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.02% [1] - The total trading volume for A-shares reached 1.89 trillion yuan, with over 4600 stocks rising across the market [1] Sector Performance - The CPO, HBM, and consumer electronics sectors saw significant gains, while the electrolyte, coal, and civil aviation sectors experienced declines [4] - The fruit supply chain concept had notable performance, with companies like Luxshare Precision hitting the daily limit, and others such as Wingtech Technology and Huanxu Electronics also reaching their limits [4] - AI hardware led the gains, with Yuanjie Technology hitting a historical high, and companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyisheng seeing increases of over 10% [4] Detailed Sector Tracking - Communication equipment rose by 4.81%, energy equipment by 4.39%, and heavy machinery by 3.15% [5] - Real estate stocks strengthened, with Guangming Real Estate and Shenzhen Zhenye A hitting the daily limit, and Yunnan Chengdu Investment rising over 5% [6] - Brokerage stocks also saw gains, with Ruida Futures and Tianfeng Securities hitting the daily limit, and Changjiang Securities increasing by over 5% [6] Declines - Coal stocks generally fell, with China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining dropping over 2% [7] - Civil aviation stocks retreated, with China Southern Airlines and China National Aviation falling by 2% [7]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.36% to close above 3900 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.06%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.02% [1][2]. Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as CPO, copper-clad laminates, and consumer electronics, while the coal and civil aviation sectors experienced declines [2]. - The deep earth technology concept saw significant gains, with stocks like ShenKai Co. and Petrochemical Machinery achieving consecutive trading limits [2]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 136.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4600 stocks rising and nearly 100 stocks hitting the daily limit [2]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the electronics, machinery equipment, and communication sectors, while outflows were noted in banking, precious metals, and coal sectors [5]. - Specific stocks such as Industrial Fulian, New Yi Sheng, and Luxshare Precision saw net inflows of 2.223 billion yuan, 1.820 billion yuan, and 1.586 billion yuan respectively [6]. - Conversely, stocks like CITIC Securities, Changying Precision, and Silan Micro experienced net outflows of 619 million yuan, 545 million yuan, and 494 million yuan respectively [7]. Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan noted that recent market fluctuations do not alter the long-term positive outlook for the stock market [8]. - Qianhai Bourbon Fund indicated that after an unsuccessful market rally, a structural adjustment is expected, with a focus on adjustments in the latter half of October [9]. - Shenwan Hongyuan emphasized that the current market trend is driven by capital flow, particularly towards technology sectors [9].

10月21日，市场震荡反弹，创业板指涨超3%，沪指涨1.36%重返3900点。沪深两市成交额1.87万亿，较 上一个交易日放量1363亿。盘面上，市场热点轮番活跃，全市场超4600只个股上涨。深地科技概念持续 走强，神开股份、石化机械双双2连板。CPO概念股全天走强，"易中天"光模块三巨头震荡拉升，源杰 科技触及20cm涨停创历史新高。苹果产业链表现活跃。截至收盘，沪指涨1.36%，深成指涨2.06%，创 业板指涨3.02%。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） ...

下跌方面，煤炭股走弱，安泰集团大跌。 市场震荡反弹，创业板指涨超3%，沪指涨1.36%重返3900点。截至收盘，沪指涨1.36%，深成指涨2.06%，创业板指涨3.02%。 盘面上，市场热点轮番活跃，全市场超4600只个股上涨。 深地科技概念持续走强，神开股份、石化机械双双2连板。 CPO概念股全天走强，"易中天"光模块三巨头震荡拉升，源杰科技触及20cm涨停创历史新高。 苹果产业链表现活跃，环旭电子涨停，工业富联大涨。 沪深两市成交额合计1.87万亿元，较上一交易日放量约1362.89亿元。其中，沪市成交额8379.38亿元，深市成交额1.04万亿元。 中际旭创成交额居首，为244亿元。其后是新易盛、寒武纪-U、胜宏科技、立讯精密，成交额分别为216亿元、192亿元、179亿元、178亿元。 | 序号 代码 | 名称 | ● | | | | | 成交量 | | 现手 | 换手% | 成交额↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 300308 | 中际旭创 | 1 | 441.50 | ...