2026 年 03 月 01 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 近期涨价链行情观点及 3-4 月布局思路 最近一年走势 相关报告 《流动性周报 2 月第 3 期：社融同比增速放缓，权 益基金发行回暖*赵阳》——2026-02-24 《年报预报落地后，市场如何演绎？*赵阳》—— 2026-02-01 《流动性周报 1 月第 3 期：宏观资金均衡偏松，ETF 继续大幅净流出*赵阳》——2026-01-28 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、怎么看待近期涨价链行情；2、即将 到来的三月该配置什么风格和主题。 | 2、 | 三月中旬开始可能要关注风格切换 6 | | --- | --- | | 3、 | 三月的三个配置思路 8 | | 4、 | 风险提示 14 | 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《流动性周报 2 月第 2 期：宽基流出明显收窄*赵 阳》——2026-02-10 《流动性周报 2 月第 1 期：宽基 ETF 继续大幅流 出*赵阳》——2026-02-02 2 月份涨价是 ...

Core Insights - The A-share ETF market is undergoing a transformation as traditional broad-based ETFs shrink while sectors like chemicals, communications, and non-ferrous metals see significant inflows, driven by company earnings forecasts highlighting three main themes: AI, price increases, and overseas expansion [1][3] Group 1: Institutional Trading Behavior - The perception that stocks heavily held by institutions are guaranteed winners is misleading, as demonstrated by a stock that saw a 20% decline despite being favored by 31 funds, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 10% during the same period [3][6] - The real issue lies not in whether institutions are involved, but in their trading activity; stocks with short-lived institutional inventory indicate lack of sustained trading, leading to price declines [6][11] - Continuous institutional activity is crucial for market momentum; a stock that rose 30% in Q2 2025 and an additional 40% in July showed no signs of correction, highlighting the importance of active trading over mere price history [6][9] Group 2: Misinterpretation of Institutional Actions - Stocks that experience institutional selling can still rise if new institutions are actively buying, indicating a transition rather than a negative outlook on the stock's value [11][13] - Many investors misinterpret institutional selling as a bearish signal, leading to panic selling, while the underlying data may reveal ongoing active trading by new institutions [13][14] - The reliance on traditional metrics like "increased or decreased holdings" without understanding the actual trading dynamics can lead to poor investment decisions [14][15] Group 3: Data-Driven Investment Strategy - The use of quantitative data can enhance investment understanding, moving away from subjective speculation and towards a clearer view of actual trading behaviors [14][15] - The current market environment requires a shift from outdated strategies of holding stocks in anticipation of price increases to a more analytical approach that focuses on institutional trading activity [15]

● 本报记者 王鹤静 2月11日，资源板块再度走强，多只稀有金属主题ETF涨超3%，矿业、有色、黄金股、稀土、化工等主 题ETF普遍涨超2%。 影视、传媒、线上消费等主题ETF历经大涨后，2月11日迎来集体回调，前一日涨停的影视ETF （159855）下跌近6%。 此前，AI应用相关板块大涨。2月10日，跟踪中证影视指数的ETF净流入超13亿元，跟踪中证传媒指数 的ETF也净流入超6亿元。此外，旅游ETF（159766）已连续17个交易日维持资金净流入态势，基金份 额一路增长，目前已突破110亿份，规模突破94亿元。 宽基ETF在近期轮动行情下遭遇资金流出。2月10日，沪深300、中证A500主题ETF均净流出20亿元以 上，中证500、科创50主题ETF净流出均超10亿元。 临近春节假期，汇添富基金表示，随着宏观数据陆续披露、产业催化密集落地，叠加假期后风险偏好回 升、增量资金入场的日历效应，市场环境有望转向积极，持股过节具备较高胜率与赔率。 汇添富基金建议，可逐步转向布局节后行情，重点关注三条主线：一是受海外映射带动的AI硬件（北 美算力链、半导体产业链）；二是高端制造中的新能源（电池储能、电网、光伏）与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of prices is identified as the most critical logic supporting corporate profit improvement in 2026, which may also influence market styles [1]. Price Trends and Data Analysis - The first inflation data of the year validates the momentum of price improvement, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) reaching a year-on-year high not seen since August 2024 and a month-on-month high since October 2023 [1]. - The proportion of price-increasing subcategories in the comprehensive price database has risen to a relatively high level, indicating a strong correlation with the month-on-month PPI trends [1]. - Recent price increases are characterized by a broader range and richer clues, driven by international commodity price transmission, favorable policies, and trends in the technology industry [4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The sectors with significant month-on-month PPI increases in January include non-ferrous metals, non-metallic mineral products (such as building materials), black metals, technology manufacturing, chemical fibers, and agricultural processing [4]. - The price increases in these sectors correspond with the high-frequency tracked price subcategories, indicating a robust link between input inflation and domestic price recovery [4]. Price Increase Clues - The proportion of subcategories with price increases over the past three months is at its second-highest level since 2016, only surpassed by the supply-side reform period in 2017 and the significant inflation period in 2021 [4]. - A detailed table shows various subcategories with significant price increases in January, such as oxygen pressure (62.5%), lithium concentrate (52.3%), and DRAM index (35.7%), indicating strong upward price trends across multiple sectors [6][7]. Future Outlook - The post-holiday period is seen as a critical window for validating price increases, with expectations for further price clues to emerge as the spring construction season begins and policies are implemented after the March meetings [9]. - Historical data suggests that the first quarter is typically a key period for PPI acceleration during inflation cycles, indicating a potential for sustained price increases [9]. Sector Performance Expectations - The relative performance of sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), advanced manufacturing, and resource & infrastructure chains is expected to be strong post-Spring Festival, with higher win rates anticipated [10]. - A statistical analysis shows that industries with a positive correlation to PPI include chemicals, steel, building materials, transportation, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and coal, among others [14].

Market Overview - On February 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.37%[3] - The total trading volume on February 10 was 2.12 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 150 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - The media, home appliance, and coal sectors saw significant gains, while real estate, food and beverage, and agriculture sectors experienced declines[1] - Major inflows of capital were observed in the film and television, IT services, and publishing sectors, while outflows were noted in photovoltaic equipment, military electronics, and batteries[3] Market Sentiment - Market strength weakened compared to Monday, reflected in reduced gains and trading volume[1] - The rise in media and entertainment stocks is attributed to the Seedance 2.0 event and the pre-Spring Festival timing, indicating a short-term speculative nature[1] Investment Strategy - Given the market's recent adjustments, a shift away from short-term thinking is advised, focusing on opportunities post-holiday in sectors like technology, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals[1] - Over 60% of private equity firms prefer to hold significant positions during the holiday, with 70% optimistic about post-holiday market performance[12]

● 本报记者 王鹤静 2026开年以来，债券市场开始企稳。权益市场热度进一步提高的同时，震荡进一步放大。尤其对于管理 股债组合的"固收+"基金管理人而言，持续面临关键的决策与考验。 华富基金固定收益部基金经理戴弘毅在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，权益投资方面，涨价链、商业 航天、人工智能（AI）、红利资产均有较大潜力；可转债资产目前估值水平相对较高，现阶段适当调 整可转债敞口很重要。此外，博弈超长债可能是今年重要的投资机会。 股票性价比优于可转债 戴弘毅称，短久期品种企稳主要是因为配置盘较为稳定，而且票息策略又是当前市场的共识，超长债的 走弱则与配置力量的削弱有关，"以往保险资金是超长债的重要配置方，但随着资产的久期缺口慢慢收 敛，叠加负债端收益率降低、权益市场有所起色，这些资金对于超长债的配置需求开始降低"。 戴弘毅注意到，以有色为代表的全球定价类资产已明显涨价，叠加存款搬家、权益市场好转等因素，均 对债市构成压制。戴弘毅认为，虽然超长债的期限利差已经走阔，但依然处于历史中等水位，还有较大 的向上空间。 在戴弘毅看来，博弈超长债可能是今年重要的投资机会，由于经济基本面等拐点难以把握，超长债存在 双向变化的可 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares is expected to continue improving, with a projected net profit growth rate of 26.8% for 2025, indicating a single-digit growth trend [5][23][27] - Approximately 2954 A-share companies have disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of about 54% and a positive forecast rate of 36.9%, which is lower than the mid-year report but higher than the same period last year [12][18][23] - Key sectors expected to see performance improvement include the price increase chain, overseas expansion chain, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors, driven by demand from AI and new energy [2][29][30] Group 2 - The major industry performance rankings for 2025 are led by Information Technology, followed by Healthcare, Midstream Manufacturing, Resource Products, Financial Real Estate, and Public Utilities [26][27] - The sectors with the highest expected profit growth include non-bank financials, beauty care, textiles, retail, and non-ferrous metals, with non-bank financials showing a positive forecast rate of 87.5% [18][20] - The price increase chain, which includes industrial metals, energy metals, and chemical products, is expected to benefit from limited capacity expansion and demand driven by AI and new energy, leading to improved performance [29][31] Group 3 - The TMT sector is projected to maintain high growth due to strong demand for AI computing and storage, with specific areas like semiconductors and communication devices expected to see significant profit increases [29][30] - The overseas expansion chain, including automotive parts and medical devices, is anticipated to benefit from stable domestic demand and improving external demand [29][30] - Other sectors such as personal care products, medical services, and seasoning products are also recommended for attention due to their potential for performance improvement [2][29]

Group 1: Market Trends - In early 2026, A-share ETF fund flows have changed, with continuous net outflows from broad-based products like CSI 300 and CSI 500, while high-growth sectors such as chemicals, communications, and non-ferrous metals have seen inflows [1] - The market is experiencing a strong rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.41% to 4123.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.17% to 14208.44 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.98% to 3332.77 points [1] Group 2: Fund News - On February 9, 2026, eight new funds were launched, primarily bond funds and funds of funds (FOF), with a fundraising target of 6 billion yuan for the CITIC Securities Dual Yield 3-Month Holding Period Bond A [2] - The number of new fund accounts opened in January reached 546,300, a significant increase of 168% compared to the same period in 2025, indicating a notable rise in investor enthusiasm [2] - Credit bond ETFs have faced a "tide of withdrawal," with a cumulative reduction of over 100 billion yuan in scale over five weeks, particularly affecting the Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF, which shrank by more than 70 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Fund Dividends - On February 9, 2026, several funds distributed dividends, with the highest payout being 0.1330 yuan per 10 fund shares for the China Europe National Index Free Cash Flow Index A fund [5] - Other notable dividend distributions include 0.1310 yuan for the China Europe National Index Free Cash Flow Index C fund and 0.0870 yuan for the Bosera Yukun 3-Month Fixed Open Bond fund [5]

Group 1: Tungsten Market and Related Industries - Tungsten prices have been rising, with ammonium paratungstate (APT) price reaching over 1 million yuan per ton, attracting significant attention from the capital market [1] - Affected by the price increase of tungsten-related products, listed companies in the industry are expected to report strong performance in their 2025 earnings forecasts, with noticeable growth in product sales [1] - The price surge in the MLCC (multi-layer ceramic capacitors) market, driven by AI trends, has seen a nearly 20% increase in spot prices in South Korea, with expectations for continued growth [1] Group 2: Sodium Battery Development - Changan Automobile and CATL have launched the world's first mass-produced sodium battery passenger vehicle, marking a significant step towards large-scale application of sodium batteries in the automotive sector [2] - Sodium batteries are gaining traction due to their abundant resource availability, wide temperature range, long cycle life, and high safety, transitioning from laboratory to large-scale applications [2] Group 3: A-Share ETF Market Trends - The A-share ETF market is experiencing a shift, with traditional broad-based ETFs seeing outflows while ETFs in high-growth sectors like chemicals, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals are attracting inflows [3] - Recent earnings forecasts from listed companies indicate a positive market sentiment, with a focus on AI, price increase chains, and overseas expansion as key investment themes [3] - Over the past month, 148 brokerages have conducted research on over 560 listed companies, a 26% increase compared to the same period last year, highlighting a growing interest in sectors such as electronics and machinery [3] Group 4: Solar Energy and Space Initiatives - Tesla is ramping up hiring for solar panel manufacturing, aiming to become the largest solar component manufacturer in the U.S., while SpaceX has acquired xAI to build a space-based data center [4] - The A-share photovoltaic sector responded positively to these developments, with a 4.53% increase in stock prices and a net inflow of 4.058 billion yuan in the photovoltaic equipment sector [4] Group 5: Banking Sector Insights - Since the beginning of 2026, listed banks have seen a surge in institutional research, particularly among small and medium-sized banks in coastal economic regions, with 54 institutional visits recorded [5] - Key topics of interest include the performance of credit in the new year, the "14th Five-Year Plan," and wealth management strategies [5] Group 6: Dye Industry Price Increases - The dye industry is experiencing a price increase trend, with companies like Fulaient notifying customers of price adjustments for various disperse dye products due to rising raw material costs [6] - The current price surge in the dye industry is driven by multiple factors, primarily the increase in prices of key upstream intermediates [6] Group 7: Fund Issuance and Foreign Investment - As of February 9, 29 new funds are set to be issued in the coming weeks, with a focus on mixed equity funds and passive index funds [7] - A total of 224 foreign institutions have conducted 569 research visits to A-share listed companies, with firms like Goldman Sachs maintaining a "overweight" rating on Chinese stocks [7] Group 8: Night Economy Initiatives - Various local governments are incorporating night economy strategies into their work reports to stimulate consumption, with initiatives in cities like Shanghai and Fujian focusing on expanding service consumption [8] - The night economy is recognized as a key driver for activating consumer potential and enhancing service consumption quality [8]

Group 1 - The A-share ETF market is experiencing a shift in capital flow, with traditional broad-based ETFs seeing outflows while sector-specific ETFs in high-growth industries like chemicals, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals are attracting significant inflows [2][3] - As of February 6, 2026, seven industry ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan, with notable inflows into the Guotai Communication ETF (239.54 billion yuan), Penghua Chemical ETF (155.34 billion yuan), and Southern Non-ferrous Metals ETF (127.58 billion yuan) [3] - The overall net profit growth rate for A-shares in 2025 is projected to be 17.94% and 37.26% based on different calculation methods, indicating a recovery trend in corporate earnings [4] Group 2 - The current capital flow reflects investor interest in sectors aligned with industrial trends, particularly AI, price increase chains, and overseas expansion, which are expected to drive market performance [5] - Three key growth areas have been identified: AI demand in electronics and communications, price increases in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, and overseas expansion in pharmaceuticals and renewable energy [4][6] - The free cash flow analysis of A-share companies (excluding financial stocks) indicates an improving fundamental trend, with expectations for a turning point in corporate earnings growth in 2026 driven by AI technology and supportive policies [7] Group 3 - Investment opportunities in A-shares are expected to be abundant, driven by technological innovation, industrial upgrades, and green transformation, with a focus on sectors that are experiencing gradual earnings improvement and policy support [8] - The semiconductor industry in China is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with self-sufficiency rates expected to rise from 16% in 2020 to approximately 26% by 2025, driven by domestic demand and technological advancements [8] - High-end manufacturing sectors, including military, nuclear power, wind energy, and energy storage, are anticipated to produce globally competitive leading enterprises [10]