智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，从个股维度来看，截至1月6日市场仍有95%的个股未破前高。已经突破新高的行业主要集中在少数细分板块以 及权重板块，包括保险为代表的大金融权重，以及"涨价链"带动的部分有色、化工、石油石化、建材相关细分板块，和商业航天、机器人、出海等带动的 军工、机械、家电零部件等。而大部分细分行业仍未突破前高，如科技成长、消费、红利等。该行认为，市场或许还存在结构性机会可以挖掘。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 截至1月6日，上证指数、全A、沪深300、中证800等主要指数均创新高，但从个股维度来看，仍有95%的个股未破前高。该行将个股的前高定义为 2024/9/24至2025/12/31期间的最高收盘价，按照1月6日的最新收盘价来看，当前仅有5%的个股突破前高，大部分个股距离前高的跌幅仍在10%以上。 上述现象背后，反映的是去年12月中旬以来市场涨幅结构相对集中的特征。去年12月中旬以来，指数整体虽然实现"连阳"，但更多由少数板块上涨带动， 近期保险等权重大涨也为指数新高做了不少贡献。从当前已经突破新高的行业可以看到，主要集中在少数细分板块以及权重板块，包括保险为代表的大金 融权重，以及"涨 ...

在行业配置层面，2025年市场处于结构性复苏阶段，各行业景气度分化显著，资金围绕景气主线"淘 汰"弱势行业。进入2026年，随着更多行业步入盈利复苏通道，市场配置逻辑或将切换——从各板块内 部通过"竞速"模式筛选出优胜行业。建议重点关注四条核心线索：AI产业趋势、"涨价链"、"出海链"以 及内需结构性复苏。 兴业证券首席策略分析师张启尧表示，展望2026年，基本面修复有望支撑市场进一步上行。 （文章来源：证券时报） 张启尧表示，2026年，名义经济修复与价格回升将成为市场最明确的趋势。参考IMF最新预测，2026年 以美元计价的中国名义GDP增速有望达到6.45%，较2025年显著抬升，上市公司盈利也将延续改善态 势。与此同时，全球流动性宽松格局持续，2026年A股大概率将延续上行走势。 他分析，拆解上市公司2025年前三季度业绩，可以看到收入已经企稳修复，但毛利率仍在回落，这指向 价格仍然是盈利的主要拖累项。不过2025年下半年以来，在"反内卷"等政策带动下，资源品等领域的价 格已经出现回升并带动毛利率改善。 ...

兴业证券首席策略分析师张启尧表示，展望2026年，基本面修复有望支撑市场进一步上行。 他分析，拆解上市公司2025年前三季度业绩，可以看到收入已经企稳修复，但毛利率仍在回落，这指向 价格仍然是盈利的主要拖累项。不过2025年下半年以来，在"反内卷"等政策带动下，资源品等领域的价 格已经出现回升并带动毛利率改善。 张启尧表示，2026年，名义经济修复与价格回升将成为市场最明确的趋势。参考IMF最新预测，2026年 以美元计价的中国名义GDP增速有望达到6.45%，较2025年显著抬升，上市公司盈利也将延续改善态 势。与此同时，全球流动性宽松格局持续，2026年A股大概率将延续上行走势。 在行业配置层面，2025年市场处于结构性复苏阶段，各行业景气度分化显著，资金围绕景气主线"淘 汰"弱势行业。进入2026年，随着更多行业步入盈利复苏通道，市场配置逻辑或将切换——从各板块内 部通过"竞速"模式筛选出优胜行业。建议重点关注四条核心线索：AI产业趋势、"涨价链"、"出海链"以 及内需结构性复苏。(孙翔峰) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For different financial derivatives, the outlooks are as follows: - **Stock Index Futures**: The outlook is "oscillation" [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The outlook is "oscillation" [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The outlook is "oscillation" [8]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures on December 31, 2025, and believes that better investment opportunities may come after the holiday. It also provides corresponding operation suggestions for different derivatives based on market trends and signals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Suggestions for Different Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and recovered, closing flat at the end of the session with basically the same trading volume and continued cooling market sentiment. There are three signals: the daily high has decreased; only one hot - spot sector can be supported; new hot - spots are emerging. Incremental funds have returned to rationality, and it is expected that there will be no systematic opportunities at the end of the year [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Retain long positions, wait for the opportunity to increase positions after New Year's Day, and temporarily use high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main allocation lines, with large - cap stocks preferred over small - cap stocks. The recommended operation is "Dividend ETF + IC long positions" [7]. Stock Index Options - **Market Conditions**: The equity market opened lower and fluctuated higher. The trading volume of each option variety increased slightly, but the increase was limited, and the trading volume remained at a relatively low level. The intraday implied volatility of options fluctuated sharply and showed a strong overall trend. It is speculated that the proportion of investors in directional trend trading has decreased, and the demand for option hedging and risk management may be more stable [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Continue to hold sold options to increase returns, and can also supplement with a small amount of bought put options for protection and defense. The recommended operation is "covered call" [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures closed with differentiated performance. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.17%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.02%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly increased, and the yields of spot bonds showed differentiated trends. The central bank's net injection of funds was 25.32 billion yuan, but the year - end capital market tightened, which affected the bond market. However, considering the central bank's care for the capital market, the probability of continued tight capital after the New Year is low [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For trend strategies, expect oscillation. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, pay attention to the widening of the basis. For curve strategies, expect the curve to remain steep [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar The economic calendar shows the time, region, indicators, previous values, forecast values, and unpublished release values of economic data from December 30, 2025, to January 1, 2026, including data from the United States, China, and Europe [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Regulatory Policy**: The "Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" will be implemented on January 1, 2026, aiming to implement the "Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" [11]. - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: The Central Rural Work Conference from December 29th to 30th analyzed the situation and challenges of "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" and deployed work for 2026 [12]. - **TMT**: The Ministry of Education plans to issue relevant policy documents next year to promote the application of artificial intelligence in education and build an education system for the future [12]. - **Real Estate**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling housing will have different value - added tax policies depending on the length of housing ownership [13]. - **Consumption**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance will implement a large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy in 2026, with clear funding channels and cost - sharing ratios [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but does not provide specific data content [15][19][31].

来源：尧望后势 近期，涨价链再度成为资本市场上的一条重要线索。从我们跟踪的高频价格数据来看，近期的涨价链主 要集中在有色、石油石化、部分化工品、航运、存储、部分农产品等，可以概括为以下四条线索： 今年以来，随着海外流动性宽松，国内PPI触底回升、"反内卷"政策加持、AI资本开支和储能景气持续 向实物需求传导，资源品涨价线索不断涌现，主要集中在：半导体（存储、晶圆）、新能源相关（锂、 钴、锂电正极材料、多晶硅等）、贵金属（金、银）、稀土（镨、钕）、化工（硫化工、农药、氟化 工、磷化工、化肥等）、航运等。 全球流动性宽松与地缘避险情绪共振驱动的有色价格上涨：包括银、黄金； AI与新能源产业趋势向实物消耗传导：包括存储、锂电（氢氧化锂、碳酸锂）； 供给扰动（美军封锁委内瑞拉石油）与地缘担忧（中东局势升级）推动的石油价格上涨：包括石 油焦、原油、棕榈油； 季节性因素推升供需错配：包括年末终端开工率下降导致供给趋紧的化工品（乙二醇、化纤）、 节前赶工出货潮、年末"抢出口"以及冬季用电量增加带动的运价指数（SCFI、CCSFI、CCFI）、 节前终端市场备货提振的农产品（肉鸡、豆粕等）。 | 品种 | 类别 | | 区间 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a continuous rise, indicating the gradual initiation of a year-end rally, with global risk assets recovering amid easing liquidity tightening expectations [3][12] - The market is shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of themes, including domestic demand, price increase chains, and new industrial themes like commercial aerospace [3][12] - The current market rally is characterized by industry rotation and the emergence of new investment themes for 2026, driven by the interplay between AI investment and global manufacturing recovery [3][12] Group 2 - Recent price increases across various industries have become a focal point, with raw material price hikes being a primary driver, leading to passive price increases in many sectors [4][17] - The effects of anti-involution policies are becoming evident, as some companies opt for voluntary production cuts and joint price increases to maintain competitive order amid rising upstream costs and downstream price pressures [4][17] - The sustainability of price increases varies by sector, with strong demand in some areas like lithium battery and wafer manufacturing, while sectors with weaker demand, such as titanium dioxide, may face challenges in sustaining price hikes [4][24] Group 3 - A new cycle of RMB appreciation is emerging, primarily driven by the weakening dollar and seasonal capital inflows, with medium-term support from improved China-U.S. relations and resilient export performance [5][33] - Historical trends indicate that during RMB appreciation periods, companies with high overseas exposure often experience a temporary increase in sales margins, followed by a decline, suggesting a complex relationship between currency strength and export competitiveness [5][34] - The current RMB appreciation is expected to alleviate cost pressures from rising prices of commodities and integrated circuits, benefiting sectors such as communication equipment, environmental governance, and lithium batteries [5][40] Group 4 - The new investment themes for 2026 are beginning to manifest across commodity markets, real industry chains, and foreign exchange markets, with a focus on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery [6][12] - Recommended sectors include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as equipment export chains with global comparative advantages, and consumer sectors benefiting from inbound recovery and rising household income [6][12]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指期货：午后⾼波异动，持续性受制于量能 股指期权：情绪偏暖驱动隐波反弹 国债期货：主⼒合约⻓短端⾛势分化 股指期货方面，周三沪指震荡收涨，量能基本持平。日内变盘发生在 午后，小盘股波动率快速冲高，市场从震荡转向单边，究其驱动因素，事 件催化或来自中芯国际对部分产能实施涨价10%，带动前期热点板块复 燃，电源、商业航天重新活跃，国防军工、电子、建筑材料领涨；进攻情 绪下，农林牧渔、煤炭、食饮等防御行业领跌。晚间央行货政委员会召开 四季度例会，强调用好互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，根据这两项结构 性工具的投放进度，大市值个股中期更有望迎来增量资金。临近年末，全 面上攻仍受限于量能，后半周北向资金休假，内资主导环境中，预计仍以 板块热点炒作为主，预计年末难出现系统性机会。在此氛围之下，仍建议 资金防御配置，以高股息、涨价链作为配置主线，大市值优于小市值。 股指期权方面，周三权益市场缩量上行，期权隐波午后快速拉升，尾 盘多数品种隐波回落。结构上，小盘风格相对较强，但50、300及双创期 权看涨端隐波涨幅强于看跌端，500、1000期权则相反，市场布局方向或 偏向于大市 ...

12月18日消息，指数午后震荡走弱，创业板指跌超2%。板块方面，医药商业板块全天强势，漱玉平 民、华人健康20cm涨停；零售板块活跃，中央商场、益民集团、上海九百、新世界、利群股份、百大 集团涨停；银行板块午后集体反弹，上海银行涨幅居前；下跌方面，海南板块大面积飘绿，海马汽车跌 幅居前；电池板块午后持续下挫，华盛锂电领跌；证券板块调整，中银证券跌幅居前。总体来看，两市 个股涨多跌少，上涨个股超2800家。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 截至收盘，沪指报3876.37点，涨0.16%，深成指报13053.97点，跌1.29%，创指报3107.06点，跌2.17%。 盘面上，医药商业、太赫兹、高压氧舱板块涨幅居前；海南自贸区、元件、电池板块跌幅居前。 热点板块： 1、医药商业 12月16日，蚂蚁集团旗下AI健康应用"蚂蚁阿福"发布后下载量猛增，今日冲上苹果应用榜总榜第三位。 据悉，"蚂蚁阿福"App月活用户规模已超1500万，每天回答用户500多万个健康提问。 2、存储芯片 受益于存储芯片供应趋紧、价格大幅上涨，以及人工智能数据中心需求迅猛增长，美光科技 （MU.US） ...

12月16日，兴业证券召开2026年度投资策略会，围绕"十五五"规划开局之年的投资机遇展开深入探讨。 兴业证券全球首席策略师张忆东与A股首席策略分析师张启尧分别就港股和A股市场发表投资展望。 会议现场，兴业证券还推出了财富管理品牌"知己理财"。记者获悉，兴业证券在买方投顾转型过程中， 将投资者需求划分为交易与配置两大核心场景，构建了一个覆盖不同风险偏好和资产规模的全维度服务 体系。 张启尧积极看好2026年A股市场投资机会，并从内外部因素进行了分析。他表示："从外部来看，对国 内市场的负面冲击有限，全球AI产业趋势的共振，以及宽松的流动性和弱美元有望提振A股。内部来 看，GDP平减指数和名义增长的修复方向均相对明确，名义经济修复、价格回升有望支撑基本面进一步 改善，企业盈利修复或将成为最大的亮点。" "无论是国内居民财富向股市新一轮的再配置，还是主动权益基金的超额回归、险资和国家队等中长期 资金的坚定入市，以及外资回流中国资产，这些资金趋势上的积极变化均有望在2026年得到更为深入的 演绎，并进一步形成正向反馈。"张启尧表示。 张启尧认为，今年以来盈利是决定各行业表现的"分水岭"，行业表现围绕景气展开了一场" ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector is showing strong performance, driven by regulatory changes aimed at optimizing capital utilization and risk control for quality institutions while implementing differentiated supervision for smaller and foreign brokerages [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 8, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index (000010) increased by 0.09%, with notable gains from stocks such as Industrial Securities (601377) up 8.75% and China Satcom (601698) up 3.96% [1]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) rose by 0.17%, with the latest price reported at 1.21 yuan [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - On December 6, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced plans to strengthen classified supervision, easing restrictions for quality institutions to enhance capital efficiency while maintaining strict oversight on problematic brokerages [1]. - The CSRC aims to promote differentiated regulation for small and foreign brokerages, encouraging specialized development [1]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Huatai Securities highlighted that sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and upstream resources are experiencing significant improvements, suggesting a focus on AI chains, price increase chains, capital goods, consumer goods, and infrastructure chains [1]. - The potential early start of the "spring surge" in mid to late December indicates a balanced allocation between growth and cyclical investments, with large financials and select high-value consumer stocks being considered as foundational choices for asset revaluation in China [1]. Group 4: Index Composition - The Shanghai 180 Index comprises 180 securities selected from the Shanghai market based on market capitalization and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies [2]. - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index accounted for 26.13% of the index, including major companies like Kweichow Moutai (600519) and Ping An Insurance (601318) [2].