Group 1 - Investors are eagerly awaiting the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's next steps [1][4] - The U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with short-term yields rising and long-term yields declining [1][4] - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the inflation report on July 15 at 8:30 AM ET [3] Group 2 - Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the overall inflation rate for June to rise from 2.4% in May to 2.7%, while core inflation is anticipated to increase from 2.8% to 3.0% [4] - The consumer price index for June is projected to increase by 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in May, with housing prices expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, the largest increase since January [4] - If tariffs begin to show a significant impact on the CPI data, the U.S. bond market may experience sell-offs due to heightened inflation risks [5] Group 3 - JPMorgan's CEO highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy in the current quarter, despite ongoing risks such as tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [5] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about lowering short-term interest rates until they observe how the economy reacts to the tariffs [5] - The White House has criticized the Federal Reserve's management, particularly regarding the renovation costs of its buildings, which have exceeded initial budgets by approximately one-third [6] Group 4 - In the European market, bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 2.707% [7] - The UK market is facing investor concerns due to economic slowdown and rising government debt nearing 100% of GDP [7] - In the Asia-Pacific market, the Japanese yen has depreciated against major currencies, raising concerns about Japan's economic slowdown [8]

经济学家：关税对通胀的影响没有想象的那么大 金十数据7月15日讯，威斯康星州经济学家Brian Jacobsen表示："关税的影响已体现在数据中，但并未 像许多人担心的那样具有破坏性。家电、家庭设备及家具价格上涨了近2%，但这些品类仅占消费者价 格指数的1%左右。服务在消费篮子中占大头，而目前几乎没有迹象表明服务类通胀在加速。租金上涨 0.2%，非家庭住宿价格下降2.9%。这并非说关税无关紧要，只是它们对通胀的影响，无论是程度还是 机制上，都没有许多人担心的那么大。" ...

金十数据7月15日讯，分析师Omair Sharif及其所创办的"通胀洞察"研究公司认为，6月通胀数据中能看 出关税的影响痕迹。他在报告中写道："今日公布的数据显示，关税开始产生实质影响。"他指出，若剔 除价格下降的汽车品类，上月核心商品价格上涨0.55%，为2021年11月以来的最大单月涨幅。6月，服 务品类价格增速放缓帮助抑制了整体通胀。但这种情况可能不会持续，Sharif写道："我不认为未来核心 服务价格的走弱能继续抑制核心商品价格的预期上涨。" 分析师：6月通胀数据中能看出关税的影响痕迹 ...

【导读】 美国6月核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，环比上涨0.2%，连续5个月低于预期！ 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下美国最新的CPI数据， 该数据将影响美联储降息的决策。 美国核心CPI连续第五个月低于预期 美国6月核心通胀再次低于预期，已是连续第五个月，这主要受到汽车价格下跌的拖累。 7月15日晚间， 根据美国劳工统计局公布的数据，剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心消费者价格指数（CPI）较5月上涨 0.2%，同比上涨2.9%。 高盛经济学家估计，美国消费者最终将承担约70%的关税直接成本。沃尔玛5月表示，迫于关税压力将被迫涨价。服装品牌拉夫 ·劳伦也表示正在考虑提价。 芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比上周五表示，持续的关税威胁使判断通胀走向变得更困难。他说："我们不断往里面添加新的不 确定因素，导致很难弄清楚'价格到底会上涨还是不会'，就像又把灰尘扬上了天。" 在商品方面，剔除食品和能源的大宗商品价格继上月持平后，本月上涨0.2%。值得注意的是，受关税影响较大的类别（如玩 具、家具、家电和服装）价格出现上涨，显示企业开始把更高的进口成本转嫁给消费者。与此同时，新车和二手车价格下降。 这份报告标志着通胀 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends and their implications for monetary policy, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [13][17]. - The overall CPI stands at 2.7%, with specific categories showing varied inflation rates, such as food at 5.6% and energy at -0.8% [4][7]. - The article discusses the regional CPI variations, with the South region showing the lowest CPI at 2.3% and the New England region at 3.1% [10][12]. Group 2 - Analysts express skepticism about the CPI report prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before September, citing the impact of upcoming tariffs [16][18]. - The article notes that the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has risen significantly from 2.4% in January to 20.6% by mid-July, the highest level since 1910, which may contribute to inflationary pressures [17]. - There are indications of economic weakness, with some service prices showing signs of consumer confidence fragility, despite certain goods experiencing price increases [18].

金十数据7月15日讯，信安资产管理公司首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示，家庭家具、娱乐用品及服装 等品类的价格上涨，表明关税正逐渐渗透到核心商品价格中。她称，关税的全部影响需要数月时间才会 在通胀数据中显现。她补充道："尽管关税引发的通胀上升可能是短期的，但鉴于更高的关税已宣布实 施，美联储至少在未来几个月内保持按兵不动才是明智之举。" 策略师：美联储保持按兵不动是明智之举 ...

花旗集团(C.N)首席财务官Mason：关税对通胀的影响有限。 ...

花旗集团(C.N)首席财务官Mason：随着关税的实施，消费者支出预计将进一步降温。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Montreal Bank's capital markets U.S. interest rate strategy head, Ian Lyngen, believes it is difficult to imagine that the recent CPI report will lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before September due to the current tariff environment [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market showed a lackluster performance following the CPI report, indicating that the report may not spark discussions about a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The upcoming implementation of a new round of tariffs on August 1 is expected to lead the Federal Reserve to maintain its current stance temporarily [1] - Investors are closely monitoring speeches from Federal Reserve officials for any hints regarding recent policy directions, although the likelihood of such guidance appearing is currently low [1]

智利部长：铜市正在消化美国计划征收的关税。 ...