美联储卡什卡利：似乎劳动力市场存在一些明显的薄弱环节。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Federal Reserve on Oct. 29, 2025 in Washington, DC.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wasn't kidding a couple weeks ago when he said a December rate cut wasn't in the bag.Recent remarks from Powell's colleagues point to plenty of apprehension over whether the central bank should deliver its third consecutive easing of policy when it meets Dec. 9-10.As a result, markets have re ...

Core Insights - The labor market in certain industries appears to be under pressure according to Federal Reserve's Kashkari [1] Industry Summary - Some sectors within the labor market are experiencing stress, indicating potential challenges for employment and economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts is becoming increasingly cautious, with market expectations for a December rate cut now at approximately 55% due to concerns over inflation and a stable labor market following two rate cuts this year [2][5][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, previously a strong advocate for rate cuts, indicated that it is "too early" to make a decision before the next policy meeting [5]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed that the threshold for further rate cuts is "relatively high" unless there is clear evidence of labor market deterioration, suggesting that policy rates may need to remain unchanged for a while [5][6]. - Collins' comments highlight deepening divisions within the Fed regarding the consensus on further rate cuts, reflecting a lack of agreement among officials [5][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Collins' remarks and guidance from the White House, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have diminished significantly [6]. - Short-term interest rate futures indicate a 55% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 10, suggesting increased uncertainty regarding the rate path [7]. - Apollo's chief economist noted that 55% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) components have increased by more than 3%, complicating the Fed's ability to justify a rate cut given its inflation target of 2% [7].

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月13日欧洲上午中段交易时段，美国国债收益率趋稳】此时美国政府即将重新开放，但谨慎情绪蔓 延。金融市场策略师Eric Chia称，市场仍保持谨慎，关注点转向待发布的积压数据，这些数据或显示劳 动力市场和整体需求疲软。 这种不安情绪源于本周疲软的ADP报告，该报告显示截至十月下旬四周 内，美国私营部门平均每周裁员11,250个。 ...

美联储哈玛克：对劳动力市场感到担忧。 来源：滚动播报 ...

新华财经北京11月13日电（崔凯）在美国联邦政府部分停摆导致关键经济数据发布中断的背景下，美联 储官员近期密集发声，围绕是否在12月继续降息展开激烈辩论。多位具有投票权与非投票权的地区联储 主席及理事在公开讲话中释放出截然不同的政策信号，反映出决策层在通胀顽固与劳动力市场走弱之间 的艰难权衡。 尽管如此，威廉姆斯认为将量化紧缩持续至11月底"完全合理"，并反对市场要求提前终止缩表的呼声。 他还重申常备回购便利（SRF）工具的有效性，鼓励银行积极使用，称其"无需担心污名化或其他障 碍"。 关于利率政策，威廉姆斯未对12月是否降息作出明确表态，仅强调"通胀高企且目前未见回落迹象，同 时经济展现出一定韧性"。他同时反驳了达拉斯联储主席洛根关于转向以回购利率为政策基准的建议， 坚持联邦基金利率仍是合适的政策锚点。 降息节奏争议升级官员立场两极分化 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）持续呼吁加快宽松步伐。他周三再次表示，当前货币政策"过 于紧缩"，应进一步降低利率以缓解经济下行风险。米兰主张单次降息50个基点，最低限度也应为25个 基点，并强调货币政策具有12至18个月的滞后效应，"若仅依据当前数据制 ...

波士顿联储主席柯林斯周三表示，虽然她在上月支持降息，短期内进一步宽松的门槛"相对较高"，主要 原因是通胀依然高企，而劳动力市场尚未出现明显恶化。 柯林斯在波士顿银行家会议上发表的书面讲话中指出："除非出现明显的就业市场疲软迹象，否则我将 对进一步放松货币政策持谨慎态度，尤其是在政府停摆导致我们缺乏足够通胀数据的情况下。"她补充 称："在当前高度不确定的环境下，保持利率在现有水平一段时间，可能更有助于平衡通胀与就业的风 险。" 柯林斯的言论凸显出美联储内部对未来政策路径的分歧正在加深。美联储主席鲍威尔两周前曾警告称， 尽管上月的降息决定获得"多数支持"，但12月是否再次降息"远未成定局"。 在10月会议上，美联储将基准利率区间下调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%，但出现两名异议者，堪萨斯城联 储主席施密德希望维持利率不变，而理事米兰则主张降息50个基点，认为通胀下降速度被市场低估。 此外，非投票委员中也存在分歧。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克倾向于"暂缓降息"，而旧金山联储主席戴 利则呼吁保持"开放心态"。 柯林斯指出，当前短期利率水平对经济来说仍属"温和紧缩"，但整体金融条件对增长构成一定支撑。她 承认劳动力市场 ...

今年FOMC票委，波士顿联储主席柯林斯周三表示，她认为短期内进一步降息的门槛"相对较高"，原因 是对通胀仍处高位的担忧。柯林斯上月投票支持降息。"除非出现劳动力市场明显恶化的迹象，否则我 会对进一步放松政策保持谨慎，尤其是在政府关门导致我们获得的通胀数据有限的情况下……在当前高 度不确定的环境下，为了平衡通胀与就业风险，维持政策利率在当前水平一段时间可能是合适的做 法。"她的讲话凸显出美联储内部存在的深层分歧。自上次降息以后，包括柯林斯在内的几位拥有投票 权和部分无投票权的美联储官员都释放出对降息日益谨慎的信号。柯林斯认为短期借贷成本目前处 于"轻度紧缩"区间，而金融环境总体上仍对经济增长构成顺风。劳动力市场的确出现放缓，但自夏季以 来下行风险并未加剧。（格隆汇） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a significant decline in employment within the U.S. private sector, with an average weekly reduction of 11,250 jobs over the four weeks ending October 25, leading to a total loss of 45,000 jobs for the month, marking the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [1][5] - Multiple companies have announced layoffs, with Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reporting the highest number of layoffs for this time of year in over two decades, raising concerns about the health of the labor market [3][5] - Goldman Sachs has developed a new tool to monitor discussions about layoffs in earnings calls, revealing an increase in such discussions, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence, although evidence linking AI directly to layoffs remains inconclusive [4][8] Group 2 - The ADP has started releasing more frequent labor market data, which shows a concerning trend of increasing layoffs amid low hiring rates and high difficulty for unemployed individuals to find jobs [4] - A composite layoff tracking indicator created by Goldman Sachs, which includes various metrics such as WARN notices and initial unemployment claims, has risen in October and is currently above pre-pandemic levels, indicating an increased risk of labor market deterioration [8] - The small business confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to a six-month low in October, reflecting a decline in optimism due to worsening profit conditions and declining economic sentiment [8][10]