Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while the July CPI year-on-year rate in the US was below expectations, the core CPI reached its highest level since February, suggesting inflationary pressures remain significant [1][2] - The July PPI year-on-year rate significantly exceeded market expectations, indicating stronger-than-anticipated producer price inflation, which could influence future monetary policy decisions [2] - The market is largely anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, influenced by the recent economic data [1][2] Group 2 - Key upcoming events include the trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine on August 18, and the release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes on August 21 [3] - The Jackson Hole global central banking conference will take place from August 20 to August 23, with Fed Chair Powell scheduled to speak on August 22 [3] - Economic indicators to watch include initial jobless claims data for the week ending August 16, which is expected to show a slight decrease in claims [3]

Core Insights - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. has decreased slightly but remains near the highest level in eight months [1] - For the week ending June 14, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to 245,000, while continuing claims also saw a slight decline to 1.95 million [1] - Overall, the increase in unemployment claims over the past two months indicates a gradual slowdown in the labor market [1]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-13 市场情绪偏谨慎，指数震荡 市场分析 美国PPI符合预期。国内方面，外交部就"中美经贸磋商机制首次会议"答记者问称，本次会议是在两国元首的战略 指引下举行的，双方就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致， 就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。既然达成了共识，双方都应遵守。希望美方同中方一道落实两国元首通话 达成的重要共识，发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，通过沟通对话增进共识、减少误解、加强合作。随后，商务部在 谈到中美经贸关系时表示，中方反对单边加征关税措施的立场是一贯的，敦促美方恪守世贸组织规则，与中方按 照相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，共同推动中美经贸关系稳定、可持续发展。海外方面，美国5月PPI同 比增长2.6%，符合预期，前值增长2.4%。美国5月核心PPI同比增长3%，低于预期值3.1%，前值为3.1%。上周初请 失业金人数录得24.8万人，为2024年10月5日当周以来新高；预期24万人，前值由24.7万人修正为24.8万人。 指数震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡，上证指数涨0.01%收于3402.66点，创业板指涨0.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. is expected to continue rising during the summer, indicating a gradual cooling of the labor market [1] Labor Market Conditions - The initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 remained steady at 248,000, higher than the market expectation of 240,000 [1] - Some states are allowing non-teaching staff to claim benefits during the long summer break, which may contribute to an increase in claims as the school year ends [1] Employment Growth - Despite economic uncertainties caused by aggressive tariffs under the Trump administration, employers are retaining workers, and there have not been large-scale layoffs [1] - The non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, which is lower than the 193,000 added in the same month last year [1]

金十数据5月29日讯，High Frequency Economics经济学家Carl Weinberg指出，最新一周美国初请失业金 人数升至4月以来的最高水平，但他认为这一上升虽然值得关注，但尚未到令人担忧的程度。Weinberg 强调，从历史标准来看，申领人数仍处于低位，这表明企业仍不愿裁掉未来可能需要的熟练和经过培训 的员工。他写道："尽管GDP数据公布后不确定性依然高企，但企业对裁员仍持谨慎态度。" 分析师：初请数据上升虽值得关注 但尚未令人担忧 ...

Group 1 - The latest economic indicators in the US show a slight increase in initial jobless claims, rising from a revised 226,000 to 240,000, which is above the market expectation of 230,000 [1] - The US GDP for the first quarter has been revised down from a contraction of 0.3% to a contraction of 0.2% [1] - Following the release of this data, US Treasury yields experienced a significant decline, reversing an earlier upward trend [1] Group 2 - The current yield on the 10-year Treasury note is reported at 4.471%, while the 2-year Treasury yield stands at 3.978% [1]