Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Report Core View - Rapeseed oil is greatly affected by news related to China-Canada relations. The Canadian Prime Minister's statement has intensified market bearish sentiment, and rapeseed oil futures led the decline in the entire oil market. It is recommended to underweight. In the long term, the situation of far-month ship purchases still needs to be observed [7] - The market expects that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of May will increase significantly, exceeding 2 million tons for the first time this year. The significant increase in inventory restrains the upward movement of the futures price, but strong exports support the price, and it continues to trade in a range [7] - The abundant soybean supply in Brazil continues to put pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the recent soybean imports and crushing situation. An improvement in the supply situation may bring pressure to soybean oils [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple-pressed rapeseed oil 09+50 (June), first-pressed rapeseed oil 09+250 (June). East China market soybean oil basis prices: first-grade soybean oil: 09+280 in early June, 09+260 from June to July; 09+270 from June to September, 01+330 from October to January. East China 24-degree palm oil: P09+450 yuan/ton [7] - Rapeseed oil was affected by China-Canada relations, with futures leading the decline in the oil market. It is recommended to underweight, and long-term attention should be paid to far-month ship purchases. The expected significant increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory in late May restrains price increases, but strong exports support prices, maintaining a range-bound trend. The abundant soybean supply in Brazil exerts pressure, and attention should be paid to imports and crushing [7] 2. Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in May increased by 3.53% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 1.9% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.3% month-on-month [8] - According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from April. Exports to China were 131,900 tons, an increase of 62,700 tons from the previous month [8] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,320,914 tons, a 17.9% increase from April [8] - According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.2% increase from April [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including spot prices and basis changes of rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil in different regions, as well as price spreads and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][12][15]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-04 中加贸易摩擦或有缓和，菜系价格承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8196.00元/吨，环比变化+136元，幅度+1.69%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7692.00 元/吨，环比变化+54.00元，幅度+0.71%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9272.00元/吨，环比变化-76.00元，幅度-0.81%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8650.00元/吨，环比变化+180.00元，幅度+2.13%，现货基差P09+454.00，环比 变化+44.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.89%，现货基差Y09+228.00， 环比变化+16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9450.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.84%，现货基差 OI09+178.00，环比变化-4.00元。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期市场咨询汇总： 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚5月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1069643吨，较 上月同期出口的8253 ...

证券代码：839979 2025-06-04投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 油脂早报 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货7950，基差258，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月23日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征 ...

2025 年 6 月 4 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：印度降税及原油带动，短期情绪偏好 【宏观及行业新闻】 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年5月1-31日马来西亚棕榈油单产增加1.9%， 出油率增加 0.3%，产量增加 3.53%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,196 | 涨跌幅 1.69% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,198 | 涨跌幅 0.02% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,692 | 0.71% | 7,716 | 0.31% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,272 | -0.81% | 9,262 | -0.11% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,934 | 1.44% | 3,948 | 0.36% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 46.81 | 1.15% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | ...

油脂日报 | 2025-05-28 策略 中性 进口大豆库存回落，油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8044.00元/吨，环比变化+90元，幅度+1.13%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7740.00 元/吨，环比变化+36.00元，幅度+0.47%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9444.00元/吨，环比变化+62.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8450.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.36%，现货基差P09+406.00，环比变 化-60.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.13%，现货基差Y09+180.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9620.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.63%，现货基差 OI09+176.00，环比变化-2.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：中国粮油商务网数据显示，截止到2025年第21周末，国内进口压榨菜油库存量为90.0万吨，较 上周的92.9万吨减少2.9万吨，环比下降3.17%；合同量为11.6万吨，较上周的12.7万吨减 ...

期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8104.00元/吨，环比变化-2元，幅度-0.02%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7814.00元 /吨，环比变化-6.00元，幅度-0.08%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9440.00元/吨，环比变化+45.00元，幅度+0.48%。现货 方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8590.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.35%，现货基差P09+486.00，环比变化-28.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8040.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.50%，现货基差Y09+226.00，环比变 化-34.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9620.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.42%，现货基差OI09+180.00， 环比变化-5.00元。 油脂日报 | 2025-05-22 上涨动力不足，油脂延续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 近期市场咨询汇总：据国家粮油信息中心，船期监测显示，5月份开始我国进口大豆将集中到港，加上4月份部分 大豆受检验检疫加强等因素影响，推迟到5月份通关入厂，预计5月份进口大豆到港量将大幅增加，在1300万吨左 右，6月份到港量预 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The weather risk is constant and the oil market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8106.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +108 yuan and a幅度 of +1.35% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7820.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +44.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.57% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9395.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +34.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.36% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8620.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +110.00 yuan and a幅度 of +1.29%, and the spot basis was P09 + 514.00, with a环比 change of +2.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8080.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +30.00 yuan/ton and a幅度 of +0.37%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 260.00, with a环比 change of - 14.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9580.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +40.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.42%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 185.00, with a环比 change of +6.00 yuan [1] Market News - As of May 18, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.51 million tons, compared with 3.08 million tons in the same period last year - The EU's 2024/25 soybean meal imports were 16.82 million tons, compared with 13.46 million tons in the same period last year - The EU's 2024/25 rapeseed imports were 6.28 million tons, compared with 5.07 million tons in the same period last year - The estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from May 1 - 20 were 651,381 tons, a 13.73% increase from the 572,729 tons exported in the same period last month - The three major oil prices fluctuated yesterday. Argentina experienced heavy rainfall from the 13th - 18th, with a total precipitation of about 100mm in the northern part of Buenos Aires. Although 34% of the soybeans were still not harvested, satellite remote - sensing monitoring showed limited impact [2]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-05-21投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8074，基差254，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月5日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关税导 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-05-20投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8044，基差268，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月5日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关税导 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-05-19投资咨询部 棕榈油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：棕榈油现货8492，基差538，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月5日棕榈油港口库存38万吨，前值39万吨，环比-1万吨，同比-34.1%。偏多 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：棕榈油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美关系恶化关税问题影 响市场。棕榈油Y2509：7850-8250附近区间震荡 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从 ...