（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦ETF发起联接A（023919），国泰 富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦ETF发起联接C（023920）。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华创证券指出，经济运行模式变化之下，股市定价长期逻辑将转向后端的现金流累积，低利率环境 下稳定自由现金流的复利效应成为长牛基石。存量经济背景下，自由现金流能够创造的复利奇迹尤为关 键，即便在利润零增长的困境下，此类资产依然维持了充沛的自由现金流创造（进一步来自可控资本开 支、成本费用管控、高效运营资本）。若实物再通胀强势回归，自由现金流的成长属性同样值得期待。 当前市场关注红利扩容三大板块中的消费内需龙头，这些企业在集中度提升、格局优化背景下有望提供 强于行业整体的后端自由现金流价值创造。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and growth of the National Index of Free Cash Flow, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Yuntianhua, Sinopharm Modern, and others [1][3] - As of July 30, 2025, the National Index of Free Cash Flow increased by 0.77%, while the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) rose by 0.94%, reaching a latest price of 1.07 yuan [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has shown strong liquidity, with a turnover rate of 4.87% and a transaction volume of 194 million yuan during the trading session [1] Group 2 - Over the past month, the Free Cash Flow ETF has achieved a Sharpe ratio of 2.17, ranking first among comparable funds, indicating the highest return for the same level of risk [3] - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [3] - The tracking error of the Free Cash Flow ETF for the year to date is 0.136%, which is the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [3] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index of Free Cash Flow accounted for 57.97% of the index, including SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, and Midea Group [4] - The top ten stocks by weight include SAIC Motor (10.18%), China National Offshore Oil (9.81%), and Midea Group (9.28%), among others [6] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of free cash flow in the current economic environment, suggesting that assets with strong free cash flow generation capabilities can maintain value even in a zero-profit growth scenario [3] - The focus is on three major sectors for dividend value expansion: leading consumer demand, cyclical resource products, and low-dividend varieties, with leading consumer stocks generally having a PE ratio below 30% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the brokerage sector [1][5]. Core Viewpoints - The performance drivers of the securities industry are continuously improving, supported by increased market trading volume and the expansion of margin financing, alongside cost reduction measures that enhance cash flow and long-term investor returns [2][3]. - The current market environment is favorable, with major indices reaching new highs, leading to a significant upward trend in brokerage stock prices [3]. - The report highlights that the return on equity (ROE) for securities firms is on an upward trajectory due to improvements in revenue, cost management, and profit margins [8][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The securities industry has seen a median net profit growth rate of 44.9% among three firms that released mid-year performance reports for 2025, with forecasts indicating a lower bound of 80.1% and an upper bound of 98.0% for 29 firms [13][14]. - The brokerage sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio as of July 28 is 1.58, slightly above the five-year average, indicating room for valuation improvement [3][24]. Cost Management and Profitability - Securities firms have implemented cost-cutting measures, leading to a decline in management expense ratios, which directly benefits free cash flow [8][12]. - The leverage ratio of securities firms has increased, contributing to the improvement in ROE [8]. Market Trends and Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing market activity and the expansion of margin financing will drive both valuation and profitability for brokerages [24]. - Key recommendations include focusing on undervalued leading brokerages like Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities, as well as high elasticity stocks such as Industrial Securities and Oriental Fortune [24].

Core Insights - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index has decreased by 0.1% as of July 29, 2025, with component stocks showing mixed performance, including Shanghai Electric and Ordos leading gains, while Oppein Home and Huanyu Electronics faced declines [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has followed the index's downward trend, creating a low-position investment opportunity [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has seen a trading volume of 1.88 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 4.76% [1] - Over the past week, the Free Cash Flow ETF has averaged a daily trading volume of 3.24 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - In terms of fund inflow, the Free Cash Flow ETF has recorded net inflows for 3 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 47.82 million yuan [1] - The latest share count for the Free Cash Flow ETF has reached 3.739 billion shares, marking a one-month high and ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's scale has increased by 318 million yuan over the past two weeks, also ranking first among comparable funds [1] - Leverage funds continue to invest, with the latest margin buying amounting to 11.1952 million yuan and a margin balance of 35.301 million yuan [1] Performance Metrics - As of July 25, 2025, the Free Cash Flow ETF has a Sharpe ratio of 2.17, ranking first among comparable funds, indicating the highest return for the same level of risk [4] - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest among comparable funds [4] - The tracking error for the Free Cash Flow ETF year-to-date is 0.137%, demonstrating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4] Top Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index account for 57.97% of the index, including SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, Midea Group, and Gree Electric [4]

Core Viewpoint - WuXi AppTec expects capital expenditures to reach 7-8 billion yuan by 2025, driven by business growth and efficiency improvements [1] - The company anticipates an increase in free cash flow from 4-5 billion yuan to 5-6 billion yuan by 2025 [1] Summary by Category Financial Projections - Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be between 7 billion and 8 billion yuan [1] - Free cash flow is forecasted to rise from 4 billion-5 billion yuan to 5 billion-6 billion yuan by 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term logic of stock market pricing will shift towards cash flow accumulation in a changing economic operating model, with stable free cash flow in a low-interest-rate environment becoming the cornerstone of a prolonged bull market [1] - In the context of a stock economy, the accumulation of cash flow driven by prudent corporate management will replace front-end expansion as the core pricing logic, with assets that have abundant free cash flow, such as leading consumer companies and cyclical resource products, having potential for valuation recovery during the physical re-inflation phase [1] - The current focus on dividend expansion highlights three major sectors: leading consumer demand (low valuation percentile), cyclical resource products (price elasticity under supply constraints), and low-dividend varieties (cash flow stability), with companies that have controllable capital expenditures and efficient operational capabilities more likely to create sustained cash flow value in the backend [1] Group 2 - The cash flow ETF (159399) tracks the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index (W00731), which selects listed companies with stable free cash flow, financial health, and sustained profitability from the A-share market as index samples, covering industries with growth and stability such as consumption, pharmaceuticals, and technology [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus ETF Initiation Link A (023919) and Guotai FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus ETF Initiation Link C (023920) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term logic of stock market pricing will shift towards cash flow accumulation in a changing economic model, with stable free cash flow in a low-interest-rate environment becoming the cornerstone of a prolonged bull market [1] - In a stagnant profit growth scenario, assets capable of generating substantial free cash flow, such as controlled capital expenditure, cost management, and efficient working capital, can still maintain their value [1] - The current leading consumer companies are expected to provide stronger free cash flow generation capabilities amid increasing market concentration, while cyclical resource products may experience price elasticity and cash flow recovery due to supply constraints [1] Group 2 - The cash flow ETF (159399) tracks the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index (888888), which selects listed companies with strong free cash flow, solid financial conditions, and outstanding profitability across multiple industries [1] - The index construction employs a value investment style screening mechanism aimed at reflecting the overall performance of quality enterprises in the Chinese market [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus ETF Initiator Link A (023919) and Guotai FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus ETF Initiator Link C (023920) [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant growth in heating supply, with a year-on-year increase of 133% in Q2 2025, indicating a strong acceleration in performance [3][8] - The logic of improving Return on Equity (ROE) continues to be validated, with a weighted ROE of 2.27% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.51 percentage points [8] - The company is entering a stable operational phase, with expectations for continued growth in free cash flow and potential for increased dividends [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to be 3,956 million in 2023, with a decline of 13.39% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in 2024 with a forecasted revenue of 3,399 million [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 629.28 million in 2023, decreasing by 15.51% year-on-year, but is projected to grow to 649.61 million by 2025, reflecting an 11.03% increase [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.45 in 2023, with a gradual increase to 0.55 by 2027 [1] Operational Highlights - In H1 2025, the company achieved a total waste input of 715.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.10%, and a total power generation of 2.539 billion kWh, up 1.62% year-on-year [8] - The company has significantly increased its steam supply, with a total of 51.55 million tons in H1 2025, representing a 115.69% year-on-year increase [8] - The company has also signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Asian United Infrastructure in June 2025, which is expected to expand its overseas light asset business [8]

Group 1 - Recent ETF listings have attracted significant attention from insurance capital institutions in equity investments [1][3] - The second largest holder of the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme ETF is China United Property Insurance Co., holding 60.01 million shares [1] - The top ten holdings of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Index include popular consumer stocks like Pop Mart and Laopu Gold [1] Group 2 - Insurance capital is increasingly entering various thematic sectors such as artificial intelligence, dividends, and free cash flow [3] - The second largest holder of the Fortune CSI Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence ETF is ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance Co., holding 35 million shares [3] - In the dividend sector, China Life Reinsurance Co. is the second largest holder of the Great Wall CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF, with over 10 million shares [3] Group 3 - Insurance capital institutions are also investing in broad-based ETFs, with China Pacific Life Insurance Co. being the largest holder of the Guolianan CSI A500 Enhanced Strategy ETF, holding 20 million shares [3] - The allocation of insurance capital to equity assets is steadily increasing, supported by policy measures [4] - This shift is expected to release trillions in long-term funds, enhancing market stability and supporting quality enterprise financing [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $130 million, up from $107 million in Q2 2024, indicating a year-over-year increase of approximately 21.5% [6] - Net income for Q2 2025 reached $91 million, compared to $71 million in Q2 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 28.2% [7] - Cash position at the end of Q2 2025 was $589 million, with total debt of $860 million, resulting in a leverage ratio of 0.56 times [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Silver production in Q2 2025 was 3.6 million ounces, down 11% from 4 million ounces in Q2 2024, primarily due to lower production at Jumpac, Tambomayo, and Huican [7] - Copper production increased by 28% year-over-year, attributed to halted operations at El Brocal in 2024 affecting copper ore processing [7] - Gold production decreased to 27,345 ounces from 33,119 ounces in Q2 2024, mainly due to reduced output at Tambomayo and Orcopampa, partially offset by increases at La Sanja and El Brocal [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company initiated the sale of part of the Cerro Verde copper concentrate, selling approximately 20,000 metric tons by the end of Q2 2025, with a total of 40,000 metric tons expected for the full year [8] - Cerro Verde announced a new dividend distribution of $59 million on July 24, corresponding to Buenaventura's equity share, contributing to a total of $108 million in dividends [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to stable and continuous production of flagship assets, with ongoing optimization efforts to increase throughput [14] - Continuous exploration is emphasized as part of the company's strategy to extend the life of its mining assets [15] - The San Gabriel project achieved 88% overall completion by Q2 2025, with expectations to commence ramp-up in Q3 2025 and produce the first gold bar in Q4 2025, subject to timely permit approvals [12][15] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in obtaining necessary permits for the San Gabriel project, with no anticipated risks regarding the permit for production commencement [20] - The company plans to maintain financial stability and has redeemed the remaining 2026 notes, indicating a focus on managing debt levels [15] - The ramp-up of production at San Gabriel is expected to take all of 2026, with stabilization projected between 100,000 and 120,000 ounces [22] Other Important Information - Total CapEx for Q2 2025 was $107 million, with $82 million allocated to the San Gabriel project [9] - The all-in sustaining costs for copper increased by 63% year-over-year, primarily driven by lower byproduct credits [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details on the pending permits for San Gabriel? - Management indicated that they have invited authorities to visit the plant in September and do not foresee risks in obtaining the necessary permits [20] Question: What is the expected CapEx for the second half of 2025? - Total CapEx for San Gabriel is expected to remain between $720 million and $750 million, with approximately $130 million to $160 million disbursed in the second half of 2025 [22][23] Question: What is the status of silver production at Uchucchacua? - Management noted a decrease in silver grades due to a shift towards polymetallic stops, with plans to monitor and potentially resume mining in the bottom part of the mine by Q4 2025 [36][37] Question: How is the commercialization of Cerro Verde concentrate impacting overall costs? - The company has started selling 40,000 tons of copper concentrates from Cerro Verde, which is expected to improve terms and overall margins [42][43] Question: What is the timeline for the Trepiche project? - The environmental impact study is on track for approval by the end of the year, with the feasibility study expected to be completed by mid-2026 [55][57] Question: What is the definition of commercial production for San Gabriel? - Commercial production is defined as producing two gold bars over 20 continuous days at 65% capacity [64][70]