Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Trump's rumored intention to "fire" Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, and the resulting market reactions, including a significant sell-off in stocks, bonds, and currencies. Group 1: Rumors of Firing Powell - The rumors of Trump potentially "firing" Powell have led to market volatility, with a notable "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies observed on July 16-17 [2][5]. - Trump's motivation for wanting to dismiss Powell includes a desire for lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and alleviate fiscal pressure from rising interest payments, which accounted for 16.9% of federal spending by June 2025 [22][33]. - Legal challenges exist regarding Trump's ability to fire Powell, as he would need to prove "misconduct," and Powell could seek legal recourse to maintain his position [38][41]. Group 2: Powell's Potential Resignation - Historically, two Federal Reserve Chairmen have resigned under political pressure, but Powell has expressed a strong commitment to completing his term, stating he cannot envision any situation, aside from death, that would prevent him from doing so [3][45]. - Powell's determination to remain in office contrasts with past instances where political pressure led to resignations, indicating a robust stance against potential dismissal [45]. Group 3: Next Chairman Nomination Process - If Trump successfully dismisses Powell, the nomination process for a new chairman could accelerate, with potential candidates including Waller, Hassett, and Basant, each with distinct qualifications and political alignments [48][59]. - The nomination process involves presidential nomination, Senate hearings, and confirmation, which can vary in duration; past instances show that some nominations have been completed in as little as six days [55]. Group 4: Economic and Market Implications - If the Federal Reserve loses its independence, the economic outlook may only improve in the short term, with long-term inflation expectations and actual interest rates rising, which could hinder economic growth [4]. - The market's reaction to the rumors of Powell's dismissal included a steepening of the yield curve, with significant declines in stock prices and the dollar, while gold prices increased [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese political landscape is facing significant turmoil, particularly with the upcoming Senate elections, which could lead to a loss of majority for the ruling coalition, impacting market stability and government policies [2][5][9]. Group 1: Japanese Political Situation - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is projected to secure fewer than 50 seats in the Senate elections, potentially losing its majority [2][6][7]. - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government may resign if the coalition fails to maintain a majority, which could lead to a political deadlock and hinder legislative progress [9][11]. - The current approval rating for Ishiba's cabinet has dropped to 20.8%, below the critical threshold of 30%, indicating a precarious political situation [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the elections has led to a significant sell-off in the Japanese bond market, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching record levels [7][8]. - Analysts predict that if Ishiba resigns, the Japanese yen could breach the 149.7 mark against the dollar, reflecting market concerns [8]. - A potential victory for opposition parties could lead to significant policy changes, including tax reductions, which may further destabilize the financial markets [11][12]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to address the market regarding the Fed's independence, which could influence the dollar's performance [3][15]. - Recent U.S. inflation data indicates a rise in core prices, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [17]. - The European Central Bank is also anticipated to maintain its current interest rates amidst ongoing trade tensions, which could affect the euro [19][20]. Group 4: Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings season will see over 100 S&P 500 companies reporting, with Google and Tesla being key focus points [21]. - Google's second-quarter revenue is expected to be $93.9 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by its dominance in digital advertising [22]. - Tesla's anticipated revenue of $22.83 billion represents a 10.46% decline year-over-year, with significant attention on its future guidance and developments in autonomous driving [23].

Group 1: Market Reactions and Implications - Recent rumors of Trump potentially "firing" Powell led to a significant market reaction, resulting in a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies[2] - On July 16-17, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.3% within an hour, while the 10Y Treasury yield rose by 1.0 basis points to 4.4%[5][20] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 98.46, and offshore RMB depreciated to 7.1810 against the dollar[5] Group 2: Trump's Motivations and Legal Considerations - Trump's motivation to potentially dismiss Powell stems from a desire for lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and alleviate fiscal interest payment pressures, with interest payments constituting 16.9% of federal spending as of June 2025[2][30] - Legally, Trump would need to prove "misconduct" to fire Powell, which is complicated by historical precedents protecting the Fed's independence[3][32] Group 3: Powell's Position and Future - Powell has expressed a strong commitment to completing his term, stating in 2019 that nothing short of death would prevent him from doing so[3][40] - If Trump were to succeed in firing Powell, the process would involve appointing a new chair, with potential candidates including Waller, Hassett, and Bessenet[3][6]

尽管总统特朗普一再流露出可能罢免鲍威尔的意向，但其核心圈内的关键人物——财政部长贝森特已成 为主要的内部反对声音。 据媒体20日报道，贝森特向特朗普表示， 鉴于当前经济运行良好，且市场对特朗普的政策反应积极， 罢免鲍威尔并无必要。 他同时提醒特朗普， 美联储官员已发出信号，可能在年底前降息两次，这本身 就在朝着特朗普期望的方向发展。 贝森特还告诉特朗普，即便总统强行解雇鲍威尔，鲍威尔也可能提起诉讼， 而这场官司可能会拖到明 年春天——届时鲍威尔的任期本就将结束。 除了眼前的障碍，贝森特还告诉总统，其实他已经走在塑造美联储的道路上了。美联储理事阿德里安娜 ·库格勒的任期将于明年1月结束，而鲍威尔的主席任期将在5月结束。 届时，特朗普将可以填补一到两 个职位空缺。 这一内部建言发生之际，关于解雇鲍威尔的猜测在上周再度公开化。 据华尔街见闻此前文章 ，一名白宫高级官员周三表示，总统在最近一次会议上向共和党议员暗示，他 可能很快会采取行动解雇鲍威尔，尽管特朗普本人在当天晚些时候向记者否认了这一计划。 此次风波短暂地搅动了金融市场。许多投资者认为，因政策分歧而试图撤换央行官员，可能会逐步侵蚀 美联储的独立性，即其在必要 ...

尽管总统特朗普一再流露出可能罢免鲍威尔的意向，但其核心圈内的关键人物——财政部长贝森特已成 为主要的内部反对声音。 据媒体20日报道，贝森特向特朗普表示，鉴于当前经济运行良好，且市场对特朗普的政策反应积极，罢 免鲍威尔并无必要。 01 贝森特是"罢免鲍威尔"的关键反对者 贝森特提醒特朗普，美联储官员已发出信号，可能在年底前降息两次，这本身就在朝着特朗普期望的方 向发展。 贝森特还告诉特朗普，即便总统强行解雇鲍威尔，鲍威尔也可能提起诉讼，而这场官司可能会拖到明年 春天——届时鲍威尔的任期本就将结束。 除了眼前的障碍，贝森特还告诉总统，其实他已经走在塑造美联储的道路上了。美联储理事阿德里安娜 ·库格勒的任期将于明年1月结束，而鲍威尔的主席任期将在5月结束。届时，特朗普将可以填补一到两 个职位空缺。 今年以来，特朗普多次批评鲍威尔并威胁解雇其美联储主席职务，以此施压美联储降息。 特朗普曾表 示，美联储应该降息3个百分点，一年可以省下1万亿美元。当地时间18日，特朗普在社交媒体平台发 文，再次敦促美联储主席鲍威尔降息。 特朗普近日还表示，贝森特是接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的一个选择，但暗示他不是领先人选，因为其 在财长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell centers around monetary policy disagreements, particularly Trump's calls for interest rate cuts and his attempts to pressure Powell regarding the Fed's renovation project [1][7][19] Group 1: Pressure on Powell - Trump has publicly urged Powell to lower interest rates, claiming that a 3% cut could save the U.S. $1 trillion annually [1] - The renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters has become a focal point for Trump's criticism, with accusations of excessive spending and mismanagement [2][6] - Powell has defended the renovation, stating it has undergone strict oversight since its approval in 2017 and is necessary due to the age of the buildings [2][6] Group 2: Legal and Political Implications - Legal experts suggest that Trump's rationale for potentially firing Powell lacks substantial evidence and may not meet the legal criteria for dismissal [7][11] - The Federal Reserve operates under a collective decision-making process, meaning that even if a new chairman were appointed, they would still require support from other committee members to change interest rates [11][12] - Historical context shows that attempts by presidents to dismiss Federal Reserve chairs have generally been unsuccessful, emphasizing the independence of the Fed [18][19] Group 3: Economic Context - Recent economic data indicates a slowdown, with the U.S. GDP contracting by 0.5% in Q1 2025, raising concerns about a potential technical recession [17] - Trump's push for rate cuts appears to be an attempt to shift blame for economic performance onto Powell and the Fed, as the anticipated economic recovery has not materialized [17][19] - The Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining financial market stability, and Trump's actions are seen as a challenge to this independence [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential consequences of President Trump's threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting the warnings from various officials about the risks to the economy and financial markets if such an action were taken [1][3][6]. Group 1: Warnings from Officials - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin privately advised President Trump against attempting to fire Powell, citing possible negative reactions from financial markets and legal implications [3][5]. - Senator John Kennedy warned that firing Powell could lead to a stock market crash, emphasizing the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence [2][10]. - Former Treasury Secretary Summers expressed concerns that Trump's pressure for significant rate cuts could backfire, suggesting that the consequences of firing Powell would be severe [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Analysts believe that attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve could trigger a sell-off in U.S. assets, with significant implications for the dollar and U.S. government bonds [6][7]. - Deutsche Bank's forex strategist noted that Powell's dismissal is one of the biggest underestimated risks in the market, predicting a potential 3% to 4% drop in the dollar if such an event occurs [8]. - The article highlights that the perception of the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency, and any perceived loss of this independence could diminish the appeal of holding dollars [9]. Group 3: Economic Context - Mnuchin indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates twice before the end of the year, suggesting that there is no immediate need to dismiss Powell [3]. - Trump has previously criticized Powell and called for a 3% rate cut, which he claims could save the government $1 trillion over a year [3].

美财长当说客劝特朗普别动美联储主席。 鲍威尔在信中指出，翻修工程规模庞大主要由于两栋始建于20世纪30年代的建筑年久失修，需要进 行"重要的结构修复和更新"，美联储已通过公共网站公布上述项目相关细节信息。鲍威尔还在信中逐一 否认了针对豪华装修的指控，称项目中没有正在建设的VIP餐厅，也不会建造特殊、私人或VIP电梯 等。鲍威尔6月向参议院做证时也称美联储总部"不安全，还不防水"。 美联储办公楼翻修项目自前总统约瑟夫·拜登当政时期开始动工。据美媒报道，项目在2019年的最初预 算为大约19亿美元。但由于木材、钢铁和水泥等建筑材料成本大幅上涨，预算增至近25亿美元。 美联储翻修大幅超支 特朗普：足以解雇鲍威尔 据央视新闻消息，有知情人士表示，美国财政部长贝森特最近私下向美国总统特朗普建议不应该试图解 雇美联储主席鲍威尔。贝森特认为，除去目前整体经济因素，美联储官员已经发出信号，他们可能在年 底前进行两次降息。 贝森特警告，解雇鲍威尔可能带来经济、政治和法律后果。知情人士表示，贝森特的言论与特朗普政府 其他高级官员的观点不同。 今年以来，特朗普多次批评鲍威尔并威胁解雇其美联储主席职务，以此施压美联储降息。近期，特朗 ...

美国白宫管理和预算办公室主任罗素·沃特10日曾通过社交媒体公开向鲍威尔致信，指称美联储翻修工程是一次"招摇的大修"，项目中包括屋顶露台花园、VIP 餐厅、水景等。沃特称，类似的联邦建筑改造成本比这一翻修工程"低很多个数量级"。沃特17日对媒体表示，特朗普政府高层正寻求对美联储翻修工程进行 现场检查。 17日，鲍威尔回复沃特的指控称，美联储翻修工程自2017年获批以来始终接受严格监督，否认白宫方面认为这项工程"铺张浪费"的说法。 鲍威尔在信中指出，翻修工程规模庞大主要由于两栋始建于20世纪30年代的建筑年久失修，需要进行"重要的结构修复和更新"，美联储已通过公共网站公布 上述项目相关细节信息。鲍威尔还在信中逐一否认了针对豪华装修的指控，称项目中没有正在建设的VIP餐厅，也不会建造特殊、私人或VIP电梯等。鲍威尔6 月向参议院做证时也称美联储总部"不安全，还不防水"。 美财长当说客劝特朗普别动美联储主席。 据央视新闻消息，有知情人士表示，美国财政部长贝森特最近私下向美国总统特朗普建议不应该试图解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。贝森特认为，除去目前整体经 济因素，美联储官员已经发出信号，他们可能在年底前进行两次降息。 贝森特警 ...

近期，将鲍威尔推向舆论风口浪尖的，是美联储位于华盛顿特区的总部大楼翻新项目。该项目最初于 2017年获批，预算为19亿美元，但如今成本已飙升至约25亿美元。 风暴眼中的鲍威尔："至死方休"的誓言面临终极考验 文/UNFX评论 美联储，这个全球金融体系的"心脏"，其独立性正面临前所未有的挑战。主席杰罗姆·鲍威 尔，这位全球最有权力的央行行长，发现自己正处于一场愈演愈烈的政治风暴中心。一边是 前总统特朗普持续的压力和潜在的解雇威胁，另一边则是一桩价值25亿美元的总部装修项目 所引发的、最新的刑事转介风波。鲍威尔那句著名的"除非死亡，否则不会离开"的誓言，如 今正面临着最为严峻的现实考验。 25亿美元的"装修门"：争议的核心 鲍威尔在私下场合的表态更为决绝。他曾告诉其盟友，他愿意不惜一切代价完成自己的任期。 "你不会看到我进入救生艇。我永远不会自愿离开这项工作……没有什么，丝毫没有发生任 何情况，我不会在任何情况下完成我的任期，而不是死了。" 这番强硬的表态，描绘了一个决心捍卫美联储独立性、拒绝在任何政治压力下屈服的央行行长形象。他 将自己的任期视为一种法律和道义上的责任，其严肃性堪比生死。 结论：十字路口的掌舵人 ...