今日必读🎨美国拟对铜征50%关税🎪特朗普再次喊话鲍威尔降息🔮星巴克或售中国业务股份获取免费中文电子报《彭博财经早茶》，洞悉全球市场动态。Catch up on what's moving China's markets in our free Chinese language newsletter. https://t.co/NVUZAXASyy ...

智通财经APP获悉，周二，三大指数涨跌不一，标普500指数基本持平。美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上 表示，关税将于2025年8月1日开始征收，截止日期不会有变化，不给予任何延期。他还威胁对铜加征 50%关税，对药品关税可能高达200%。此外，特朗普再度将矛头对准鲍威尔，称他应该立马降息。 【金属】现货黄金日内大幅下跌超1%，收盘报3301.69美元。在美国总统特朗普表示将对进口铜征收 50%的关税后，美国铜价周二飙升至历史新高，至5.8955美元/磅。这种用于电线、电机等的关键金属的 期货一度合约上涨16%。道琼斯市场数据显示，这是1968年以来最大的单日涨幅。伦铜则先涨后跌，报 9569美元/吨。 【加密货币】比特币涨0.54%，报108909.3美元；以太坊涨超2.6%，报2609.88美元。 【宏观消息】 特朗普：鲍威尔像个婴儿一样 其现在就该降息。美国总统特朗普在真实社交平台上表示，白宫经济顾 问委员会（CEA）最新研究显示，关税政策对通胀零影响。研究数据表明进口价格正持续下降——这完 全印证了我此前的预判。那些假新闻媒体和所谓"专家"再次被事实打脸！关税正在让我们的国家"繁荣 起来"。许多新工厂、工作和 ...

金十数据7月9日讯，美国总统特朗普在真实社交平台上表示，白宫经济顾问委员会（CEA）最新研究显 示，关税政策对通胀零影响。研究数据表明进口价格正持续下降——这完全印证了我此前的预判。那些 假新闻媒体和所谓"专家"再次被事实打脸！关税正在让我们的国家"繁荣起来"。许多新工厂、工作和数 万亿美元的投资正在涌入美国。有人应该把这项新研究拿给"太迟先生"杰罗姆·鲍威尔看，他几个月来 一直像个婴儿一样抱怨不存在的通胀，拒绝做正确的事情。杰罗姆，现在是时候降息了！ 特朗普：鲍威尔像个婴儿一样 其现在就该降息 ...

特朗普：美联储主席鲍威尔应立即降息。 ...

美国总统特朗普表示，现在是时候降息了。 ...

特朗普：太晚了！鲍威尔总是迟到！但他在大选前并没有对拜登迟到，而是疯狂降息。 ...

巴西总统府首席部长科斯塔：巴西雷亚尔正在走强，食品通胀率正在下降；我们希望尽快降息。 ...

Group 1: New Zealand and Australia Economic Outlook - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the official cash rate unchanged in July, adopting a wait-and-see approach for future rate adjustments [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may allow the market to interpret potential rate changes and will decide based on economic data released before the August monetary policy statement [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand might indicate that economic activity in Q1 2025 could exceed expectations, although subsequent indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia did not cut rates in July as widely anticipated, but future rate cuts remain a possibility, contingent on upcoming inflation data [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that inflation risks have become more balanced, suggesting that while there is no immediate pressure to cut rates, it may be delayed rather than canceled [2] Group 2: Japan's Economic Challenges - Mizuho Securities analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan should maintain its current policy amid external uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs [3] - The potential for a 25% tariff on Japanese imports by the U.S. starting August 1 adds uncertainty and could negatively impact Japan's exports and overall economic performance [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ Securities economists believe that U.S. tariffs will challenge Japan's economy, especially in exports and capital investment, prompting the government to consider broader economic stimulus measures [3] - Japan's central bank plans to slow the pace of its bond purchase reduction starting April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [3] Group 3: Singapore's Economic Performance - DBS Group economists indicate that Singapore's economy may avoid technical recession in Q2 2025 due to early shipments by export companies, which temporarily supported actual export growth [4] - While short-term export data appears strong due to early deliveries, long-term challenges loom for Singapore's export sectors, particularly electronics and biopharmaceutical manufacturing, due to potential U.S. tariff measures [4]

Group 1 - The market is overly optimistic about the economic outlook, ignoring the negative impacts of unprecedented high tariffs, particularly on small businesses and inflation [1] - Multiple factors, including tariffs, a weak dollar, and potential demand slowdown, are impacting the inflation outlook, with tariffs expected to drive inflation higher in the second half of the year [1] - The labor market's ability to buffer against economic recession is weaker than in any period post-pandemic, with fewer job vacancies per unemployed person compared to 2021-2022 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. fiscal policy is creating a tug-of-war effect on economic growth, with both tariffs and fiscal measures raising inflation risks [2] - Inflation-protected assets, such as TIPS, appear relatively cheap, and could benefit if market sentiment shifts towards inflation concerns [2] - The Federal Reserve's economic forecast suggests a median expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut this year, but inflation pressures may lead to fewer cuts than anticipated [2]

【导读】澳洲联储将关键利率维持在 3.85% 不变，市场预期降息 25 基点 中国基金报记者 晨曦 意料之外，澳洲联储（ RBA ）最新宣布：不降息！ 7 月 8 日，澳洲联储货币政策委员会发布声明称，决定将现金利率目标维持在 3.85% 。该 次政策决定以多数票通过： 6 票赞成， 3 票反对。 今年 5 月，澳洲联储已经开启新一轮宽松周期，宣布降息 25 个基点。根据当月会议纪要， 决策层曾考虑一次性下调 50 个基点的可能性，反映出当时对全球不确定性与国内疲弱增长的 高度警惕。 近期，市场普遍认为 RBA 将再次下调现金利率 25 个基点，从 3.85% 降至 3.6% ，以应对 通胀减弱与内需疲软的局面。据海外调查显示， 37 位经济学家中有 31 位预测央行将降息 25 个基点。因此，此次澳洲联储选择维持现金利率在 3.85% ，出乎市场意料。 亦有分析师认为，连续降息之后， RBA 可能采取 " 观察 - 应对 " 的策略，以评估通胀与经 济反应的稳定性； RBA 不太可能在外部环境依然复杂、经济信号尚未明朗的情况下一次性释 放过多政策资源。若核心通胀企稳，消费活动改善， RBA 可能暂停宽松步伐 ...