Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights Trump's renewed tariff threats targeting pharmaceuticals and copper, which has led to a temporary market relief due to confirmed tariff delays, impacting gold prices and market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The current bullish sentiment in gold is reflected by a high long position percentage of 72% among traders [1] Group 3 - The market sentiment across various indices shows a significant bullish trend in the Nasdaq index with 85% long positions, while the Dow Jones index has a more balanced sentiment with 39% long and 61% short positions [3] - The S&P 500 and Hang Seng indices both show a bullish sentiment of 76% long positions [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the Euro against the US Dollar has a long position percentage of 27%, indicating a predominantly bearish sentiment with 73% short positions [3]

特朗普4月份宣布了他的对等关税议程，但他已经两次延长了他为各国设定的与美国达成双边贸易协议 以避免这些最高税率的最后期限。 虽然一些个别商品的价格已经因关税而上涨，但特朗普的政策尚未引发企业和消费者所担心的整体通 胀。 许多经济学家表示，他们仍然预计未来几个月价格会上涨。他们指出了这些更高价格尚未出现的多种原 因。 一个原因是，特朗普一再推迟实施他许多最严厉的"解放日"关税，第二个原因是关税与其在现实世界中 价格影响之间的时间差，而第三个因素是许多公司今年早些时候进行的补库存行为。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 白宫一位高级经济顾问周二将美国总统特朗普的关税将导致物价上涨的几率，比作陨石撞击地球的几 率。 特朗普的经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在一档节目中表示，"罕见事件确实会发 生。我们会遇到大流行病，或者陨石或其他什么，但到目前为止，根本没有证据表明它（特朗普关税推 高通胀）正在发生。我不是有意轻视，"他补充道。"我的意思只是说，预测是困难的，我们应该始终从 几率和可能性的角度来谈论问题。我没有能告诉我未来的水晶球，其他人也没有。" 米兰还推广了他 ...

新西兰联储表示，通胀率可能在2025年中期升至1%-3%目标区间的上限。 这可能会减缓新西兰经济复苏的步伐，减轻通胀压力。 全球政策不确定性加剧，关税预计将降低全球经济增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicates that increasing global policy uncertainty and tariffs are expected to lower global economic growth, which may slow down New Zealand's economic recovery and alleviate inflationary pressures [1] Group 1 - Global policy uncertainty is intensifying, which poses challenges for economic stability [1] - Tariffs are projected to negatively impact global economic growth [1] - The slowdown in global growth may hinder New Zealand's economic recovery [1] Group 2 - The anticipated reduction in global growth could help ease inflationary pressures in New Zealand [1]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美国总统特朗普再次表示，美联储主席鲍威 尔应立即辞职。此外，特朗普还在社交媒体平台"真实社交" 上发文表示，经济顾问委员会的一项新研究发现，关税对通胀 毫无影响。事实上，研究表明进口价格实际上正在下降。特朗 普还表示，应该把这项新研究给"太迟先生"美联储主席鲍威 尔看看。评：市场目前认为7月不降息的概率为95.3%，9月不降 息的概率为34.2%，美联储7月降息预期减弱，但是美国经济韧 性好，利多风险资产。后续白银进一步上涨动力不强，或跟随 黄金走势。白银短期或震荡略偏空，关注黄金白银走势是否同 步。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1262元/吨，震荡下行 趋势；纯碱周度产量70.89万吨，环比-1.1%；纯碱厂家总库存 180.95万吨，周上升2.41万吨；浮法玻璃开工率75.68%，周度 +0.68%；全国浮法玻璃均价1173元/吨，环比上日-1元/吨；全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6908.5万重箱，环比下降0.19%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场暂稳，企业 多稳价出货，多数加工厂订单未有显著改善，操作刚需为主。 国内纯碱市场偏弱震荡，供应高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic data shows a mixed picture with some indicators stable, some improving, and others declining, while geopolitical and trade - related events are creating uncertainties in various markets [1][2][3] - The bond market is under pressure from short - term factors, and there are different outlooks for different segments of the bond market [25][31] - The stock market is performing strongly, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks rising, and there are significant developments in related policies and corporate events [35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1] - Manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 49.7%, slightly up from the previous month [1] - Non - manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 50.5%, also slightly up [1] - Social financing scale in May 2025 was 22870 billion yuan, up from the previous year [1] - CPI in May 2025 was - 0.1% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous month [1] - PPI in May 2025 was - 3.3% year - on - year, down from the previous month [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment - Trump plans to impose tariffs on multiple countries and specific industries, which has affected the copper market [3][20] - Global gold ETFs had significant inflows in H1 2025, with North America being the main contributor [4][5] - Deutche Bank is optimistic about the platinum market in 2026 [5] 3.3 Financial News - The central bank conducted 690 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 8, resulting in a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan [15] - China and Hong Kong announced three measures to optimize the opening - up of the bond market [17] - Some rating companies may simplify credit rating reports [18] 3.4 Stock Market - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year [35] - The China Securities Association plans to revise the management method for the professional reputation information of the securities industry [36] - Northbound capital increased its holdings in some industries in Q2 2025 [36]

特朗普周二进一步扩大全球贸易战，宣布对进口铜征收50%关税，并表示长期以来威胁要征收的半导体和药品关税即将出台。他还表示，美国与欧盟和中国的贸易谈判进展良好，但表示“很可能”在两天内告诉欧盟对美出口的预期税率。特朗普也表示，将很快对药品征收高达200%的关税，但将给药企至少一年的时间，在关税生效前将供应链转移回美国。COMEX9月期铜合约最终收涨13%，创下最高收盘纪录，盘中涨超17%，创下37年以来最大盘中涨幅。在潜在进口关税威胁下，全球各地加快向美国运输铜，上个月LME可用库存规模一度降至相当于不足全球一天的使用量。 ...

Core Insights - Amazon's Prime Day sales performance has started poorly this year, with sales in the first four hours down nearly 14% compared to the same period last year [1] - The data from Momentum Commerce, which manages approximately $7 billion in sales for brands like Crocs and Beats, is seen as a barometer for consumer sentiment and the overall economic outlook in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The negative sentiment from investors regarding this year's Prime Day is reflected in the high-frequency data from Momentum, indicating a cautious shopping behavior among consumers [1] - On the day the data was released, Amazon's stock fell over 1.8%, marking the worst performance among the Magnificent 7 tech giants [1] Group 2 - Amazon's Prime Day this year runs from July 8 to July 11, extending the event to four days for the first time, which may complicate year-over-year sales comparisons [2] - The longer duration may lead consumers to wait for larger discounts rather than making immediate purchases as in previous years [2] - High tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are also seen as a factor contributing to the weak sales, affecting sellers' promotional capabilities [2] Group 3 - Key observations from this year's Prime Day include fewer discounts on Amazon's own devices like Echo, with essential goods driving promotions rather than tech products [2] - Grocery items are seeing larger discounts compared to electronics, and Apple is offering notable deals, such as AirPods 4 priced at $89, cheaper than last year's Black Friday promotions [2]

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Global Economy - Current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, and even with a trade agreement, it is unlikely that tariffs will decrease significantly [1] - Global growth tracking estimates a current annual rate of only 1.3%, which is at the 8th lowest percentile historically [1] - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data following tariff announcements, with a peak gap not seen in 27 years [1] Group 2: U.S. Dollar Dynamics - UBS is bearish on the dollar from a cyclical perspective but does not view this as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [2] - The current dollar sell-off lacks key elements that characterized past long-term declines, such as improved economic growth in other regions and reduced risk premiums [2] Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Initial impacts of tariffs are beginning to show in private sector data, but delays in transmission to official consumer price indices are expected [3] - Significant effects on CPI from tariffs are anticipated to manifest in July's data, which will be released in August [3] Group 4: Global Exporters' Response - Evidence of a "tariff rush" in Q1 indicates that trade volumes have not yet stabilized despite price increases [4] - There is little evidence that foreign exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering export prices, and the impact of dollar depreciation on their profits is noted [4] Group 5: U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Global Interest Rates - The majority of changes in budget deficits stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with no fundamental changes expected post-election [6] - Concerns about supply issues persist, but historically, demand fluctuations have been more significant than supply [6] Group 6: Capital Flows from the U.S. - There is a widely accepted view that foreign investors are reducing exposure to U.S. assets, supported by April's international capital flow data [7] - The ongoing decline of the dollar suggests that foreign exchange hedging may be a driving factor behind this trend [7] Group 7: U.S. vs. European Stock Markets - U.S. stock markets typically perform better during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is primarily driven by the U.S. economy [8] - Comparisons reveal that U.S. valuations are exceptionally high while European markets appear relatively cheap [8] Group 8: "One Big Beautiful" Act's Economic Impact - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to increase deficits before 2026, with a total reduction of $0.4 trillion over ten years [8] - The act is expected to provide a boost of approximately 45 basis points to economic growth by 2026 [8] Group 9: Central Banks' Response to Tariff Escalation - Central banks have shifted their views due to the absence of retaliatory measures and dollar depreciation, with expectations of 1-3 policy rate cuts [9] - The current situation is viewed as simpler than a "stagflation" scenario, allowing for potential easing policies [9]

特朗普还表示，应该把这项新研究给"太迟先生"美联储主席鲍威尔看看。特朗普称鲍威尔几个月来 一直在抱怨根本不存在的通胀，拒绝采取正确的行动。特朗普表示，现在是时候降息了。 此外，特朗普还在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，经济顾问委员会（CEA）的一项新研究发 现，关税对通胀毫无影响。事实上，研究表明进口价格实际上正在下降。特朗普表示，假新闻和所 谓的"专家"又错了，关税正在让美国"繁荣"，大量新工厂、新工作岗位和数万亿美元的投资涌入美 国。 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间8日在内阁会议发表讲话。 特朗普8日当天再次表示，美 联储主席鲍威尔应立即辞职。 ...