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宏观经济周报:2026总量为结构让位-20251213
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-13 13:17
Economic Policy Shift - The focus of economic policy is shifting from "total growth" to "structural optimization" for 2026[1] - "High-quality development" is now prioritized over "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in policy statements[1] - The introduction of a national unified market regulation aims to enhance market efficiency and address "involution" competition[1] Investment and Consumption - Investment strategies will emphasize "new quality productivity," focusing on technology innovation, digitalization, and green upgrades[1] - The structure of demand is shifting from a single focus on consumption to a dual focus on consumption and investment[1] - Specific measures include increasing central budget investments and optimizing special bonds to stabilize investment[2] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.70% year-on-year[4] - Retail sales increased by 2.90% year-on-year, while exports rose by 5.90% year-on-year[4] - M2 money supply growth is at 8.00%[4] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The broad fiscal deficit is projected to be between 12.5 trillion and 13 trillion yuan for 2026, up from 11.86 trillion yuan in 2025[39] - Fiscal policy will maintain a high deficit rate, with special bonds and government bonds expected to increase[2] - Monetary policy will remain "moderately loose" but will focus on structural guidance and maintaining adequate liquidity[2]
人民日报评论员:结合实际,领会做好新形势下经济工作的规律性认识
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-13 13:02
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding and applying economic principles to guide effective governance and economic work in the new context, highlighting five essential strategies for economic development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Potential and Policy Support - The need to fully tap into economic potential by leveraging advantages such as a complete industrial system and a large market scale, transforming potential into driving force [3]. - The dual approach of policy support and reform innovation is crucial to address old problems and new challenges, enhancing the macroeconomic governance system while promoting high-quality development [3][4]. Group 2: Market and Government Roles - The balance between allowing market forces to play a decisive role in resource allocation and ensuring effective government intervention is essential for enhancing social vitality [3][5]. - Investment strategies should integrate both material and human capital, promoting mutual empowerment and coordination between the two [3]. Group 3: Addressing Economic Challenges - The article outlines the necessity of comprehensive measures to tackle intertwined cyclical, structural, and institutional issues in the economy, advocating for a combination of macro policy adjustments and deepening reforms [4][5]. - Specific measures include implementing more proactive macro policies and enhancing the effectiveness of existing policies to stabilize economic fluctuations [4][5]. Group 4: Strategic Focus for the Future - The 14th Five-Year Plan period is identified as a critical time for laying the foundation for socialist modernization, with a focus on understanding and applying the five essential strategies to achieve a strong start for economic work [5]. - The article calls for a systematic and problem-oriented approach to economic work, aiming to boost confidence and create a powerful synergy for high-quality development [5].
高端访谈丨新加坡学者:“十五五”规划聚焦高质量发展 非常英明
新加坡学者马凯硕日前在接受总台《高端访谈》专访时积极评价中国的五年规划。他高度评价中国发展 的长远眼光:"'十五五'规划聚焦高质量发展,我认为这非常英明。" 新加坡前常驻联合国代表 马凯硕:最早让我意识到中国具有长远眼光和战略思维的是亨利·基辛格(美 国前国务卿)。事实上,在我的《中国的选择》一书中,经他同意我引用了他说的话——"中国拥有全 面且长期的战略"。而五年规划正是这种长期战略思维的重要体现。 ...
人民日报评论员:结合实际,领会做好新形势下经济工作的规律性认识——论学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-12-13 12:05
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding and applying economic principles to guide effective governance and economic work in the new context, highlighting five essential strategies for economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Strategies - The five essential strategies include fully tapping economic potential, combining policy support with reform and innovation, balancing market freedom with effective regulation, integrating investments in physical and human capital, and strengthening internal capabilities to face external challenges [1][2][4]. - The focus on policy support and reform innovation is crucial for addressing both old and new challenges, enhancing macroeconomic governance, and promoting high-quality development [2][3]. Group 2: Policy and Reform Initiatives - Recent reforms and policies, such as the establishment of a unified national market and the implementation of the "Negative List for Market Access (2025 Edition)," have been effective in releasing market vitality and addressing economic pressures [3]. - The upcoming economic work will involve implementing proactive macro policies, enhancing policy foresight and coordination, and focusing on quality and efficiency improvements through integrated policy effects [4]. Group 3: Goals for the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical time for laying the foundation for socialist modernization, with a strong emphasis on understanding and applying the five essential strategies to achieve significant breakthroughs in strategic tasks related to Chinese-style modernization [4].
锚定新目标 奋力开新局——2025年中央经济工作会议侧记
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-13 11:49
新华社北京12月13日电题:锚定新目标奋力开新局——2025年中央经济工作会议侧记 新华社记者赵超、韩洁 一切伟大成就都是接续奋斗的结果,一切伟大事业都需要在继往开来中推进。 "十四五"即将圆满收官、"十五五"正待开启序幕之际,中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 习近平总书记在会上发表重要讲话,总结2025年经济工作,分析当前经济形势,部署2026年经济工作, 驾驭中国经济航船破浪前行。 锚定"十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标,确保"十五五"开好局、起好步,以习近平同志为核心的党中 央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、勇往直前,奋力书写中国经济的崭新篇章。 信心与定力:"我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展" 2025年,中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年。 今年以来,国际环境变乱交织,我国发展经历转型调整的挑战,经济稳定运行压力有所上升。 面对国内外形势深刻复杂的变化,全党全国勠力同心、奋力拼搏,坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质 量发展,经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 "我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展,展现强大韧性和活力。"10日第一次全体会议上,习近平总书记对 今年经济工作作出全面总结。 这是 ...
乘势而上实现“十五五”良好开局——论贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-12-13 11:44
朝着2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的目标迈进,"十五五"时期要夯实基础、全面发力,做好经济工作 意义重大。习近平总书记出席中央经济工作会议并发表重要讲话,全面总结"十四五"规划收官之年经济 工作,深刻分析当前经济形势,系统部署"十五五"开局之年经济工作,为"十五五"时期乘势而上迈好第 一步定向领航。 乘势而上,我们有高质量发展的坚实基础。 2025年,面对外部压力加大和内部困难较多的复杂局面,构建新发展格局、发展新质生产力等战略先手 棋的效果逐步显现,我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展,继续展现出强大韧性和活力。在"十四五"这5 年,我们有效应对各种冲击挑战,经济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、制度、外交等软实力明显提升, 经济增速继续领跑全球主要经济体,中国式现代化迈出新的坚实步伐。这是以习近平同志为核心的党中 央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏的结果,充分彰显了"两个确立"的决定性意义。 乘势而上,我们对机遇与挑战有着深刻洞察。 经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少,外部环境变化影响加深,国内供强需弱矛盾突出,重点领域风险 隐患较多——摆在我们面前的大多是发展中、转型中的问题,经过努力是可以解决的。我国经 ...
新华全媒头条丨锚定新目标 奋力开新局 ——2025年中央经济工作会议侧记
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-13 09:18
锚定"十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标,确保"十五五"开好局、起好步,以习近平同志为核心 的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、勇往直前,奋力书写中国经济的崭新篇章。 信心与定力:"我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展" 2025年,中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年。 今年以来,国际环境变乱交织,我国发展经历转型调整的挑战,经济稳定运行压力有所上升。 面对国内外形势深刻复杂的变化,全党全国勠力同心、奋力拼搏,坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推 动高质量发展,经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 新华社北京12月13日电 题:锚定新目标 奋力开新局——2025年中央经济工作会议侧记 新华社记者赵超、韩洁 一切伟大成就都是接续奋斗的结果,一切伟大事业都需要在继往开来中推进。 "十四五"即将圆满收官、"十五五"正待开启序幕之际,中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京 举行。 习近平总书记在会上发表重要讲话,总结2025年经济工作,分析当前经济形势,部署2026年经济 工作,驾驭中国经济航船破浪前行。 "我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展,展现强大韧性和活力。"10日第一次全体会议上,习近平总 书记对今年经济工作作出全面总结。 ...
视频丨国际人士表示中国高质量发展表现出色 为世界经济注入稳定性
0:00 新加坡国立大学商学院治理与永续发展研究所所长 卢耀群:尽管全球面临不确定性带来的逆风,但中国经济的表现依然十分出色,中国注重高质量发展, 推动经济向新向优转型,实现各领域稳定增长,为新一阶段的发展奠定了坚实基础,可以看到中国下一阶段发展的重点包括创新、科技、消费等,这将为中 国人民带来更高品质的生活,也有助于增进全球人民的福祉。 英国48家集团俱乐部主席 杰克·佩里:中国是可再生能源领域的引领者,大力发展风力发电、太阳能发电、并在氢能等领域积极投入,中国领导人目光长 远,表面看"十五五"规划是对未来五年的规划,事实上不止于此,中国着眼于更长远的未来,从中国对新能源、量子科技、人工智能等领域的重视可以看 出,中国对世界未来发展方向的敏锐洞察力。 国际人士指出,面对复杂的国际环境,中国坚持推进经济高质量发展表现出色,为世界经济注入宝贵的稳定性和确定性。 德国黑森州欧洲及国际事务司前司长 国际问题专家 博喜文:是的,我们已经看到中国在"十四五"时期实现显著的增长,完成了既定的目标,其主要推动力 来自于中国大力推进的高质量发展,这是非常具有前瞻性的,发展的势头也将延续到"十五五"期间。 国际人士表示,中国不 ...
观察·中国经济韧性获得广泛认可 解码中国经济底色与底气
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-12-13 08:15
中国2026年将继续实施"更加积极的财政政策"和"适度宽松的货币政策"。文章称,清晰有力的宏观调控政策、科技产业充沛的创新 活力、空间广阔的超大规模市场、配备完善的产业体系,共同筑牢高质量发展的基础,也有效支撑了信心、提高了预期。消费是扩 大内需、畅通循环的关键,中国经济向"内"发力,从长远看是充分激活自身优势和潜力的必然。 英国《金融时报》:重心向创新端倾斜 央视网消息:2025年的中央经济工作会议成为媒体高度关注的焦点。中国经济的底色与底气是什么?抗压能力和内生动力带来哪些 确定性? 美国彭博社:中国经济韧性获得广泛认可 彭博社分析认为,会议明确透露出2026年将持续推出相关经济促进政策,始终坚持稳中求进的工作总基调,这一信号凸显中国将坚 定保障经济长期增长目标。中国经济在2025年已展现出强大的抗压能力和内生动力。在面对美国关税壁垒时,中国通过积极开拓多 元化出口市场,进一步印证了经济发展的强劲增长势头。国际组织看好中国经济,近日,接连上调增速预期。 香港大公网:宏观政策更加积极 2026年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年,中国将着力推进高质量增长,创新、现代服务业、人工智能以及绿色转型将成为新的增长引 擎 ...
好评中国|锚定高质量发展,奋力实现“十五五”良好开局
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-12-13 07:45
Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, is crucial for setting the direction for China's economic work in 2026 and ensuring a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] - The conference emphasizes the importance of unity in thought, consensus, and confidence to navigate the complexities of the current economic landscape and achieve high-quality development [2][3] Economic Strategy - The conference outlines a series of strategic deployments focused on stabilizing and advancing economic growth, with a priority on domestic demand and building a strong domestic market [3] - Key tasks include boosting consumption, optimizing investment, fostering innovation, and addressing risks in real estate and local debt [3][4] Leadership and Governance - Strengthening the Party's comprehensive leadership over economic work is highlighted as essential for overcoming challenges and achieving targets [4] - The need for a correct performance view that prioritizes people's well-being and practical results is emphasized, along with avoiding bureaucratic tendencies [4] Future Outlook - The conference sets a clear roadmap for 2026, aiming for a robust start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" and a commitment to high-quality development [5] - A call for collective effort and determination to overcome obstacles and achieve economic goals is made, reinforcing the vision for a modern socialist country [5]