Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 华福证券 策略点评报告：2026 年 2 月政治局会议精神学习点评 策略点评报告 2026 年 2 月 27 日 "十五五"蓝图绘就，宏观政策协同发力 投资要点： ➢ 事件：中共中央政治局2月27日召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四 届全国人民代表大会第四次会议审查的"十五五"规划纲要草案稿和审议 的《政府工作报告》稿。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议 ➢ 本次政治局会议作为"十四五"收官、"十五五"开局的关键节点会 议，确立了"十五五"时期作为基本实现社会主义现代化"夯实基础、全 面发力"的历史定位。会议通稿在宏观政策、内需体系、新质生产力及风 险防范等方面的表述极为积极。 ➢ 我们认为，"更加积极有为"是理解2026年乃至"十五五"前期政 策取向的关键词。会议强调的"实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策"并强化与改革举措的协同，意味着政策组合拳继续发力，旨在确 保"十五五"实现良好开局。 ➢ 对于资本市场而言，宏观环境的确定性将显著提升，结构性的投资机 会持续孕育。 ➢ 投资建议：继续密切关注国家重点进行战略推进的相关前沿科技领 华福证券 域。这些 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the report is the continuation of a "moderately loose" monetary policy, with a focus on structural tools aimed at expanding domestic demand as the top priority, while emphasizing coordination with fiscal policy for consistent macroeconomic policy orientation [1][5][7]. Economic Outlook - The report presents a more optimistic assessment of China's economic performance, stating that the economy is "continuously stable and improving with conditions and support," highlighting the solid foundation of manufacturing, resilient foreign trade, and risk resistance capabilities [2]. - New growth drivers are strengthening, creating a positive cycle from research to manufacturing, supported by strong policy measures [2]. - However, it also warns of persistent old issues and new challenges, including rising external risks and domestic supply-demand imbalances [2]. Inflation Trends - The report indicates positive changes in price levels, with CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, the highest since March 2023, and core CPI inflation remaining above 1% for four consecutive months [3]. Monetary Policy Stance - The monetary policy maintains a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on balancing short-term and long-term goals, supporting the real economy while ensuring the health of the banking system [5]. - The report suggests that the central bank may consider a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut based on liquidity conditions, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts [6]. Structural Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of using monetary and credit policies to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises, with a particular focus on expanding domestic demand [6][8]. Financial Market Management - The central bank addresses concerns about deposit "losses," indicating that liquidity remains stable when considering combined deposits and asset management products [9]. - The report highlights a more refined management of interest rates, with a focus on guiding short-term market rates around the central bank's policy rates [10]. Exchange Rate Policy - The report introduces a focus on managing exchange rate fluctuations to avoid rapid appreciation of the yuan, which could undermine export competitiveness and economic growth [16].

近日，2026年首期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉，已连续8个月保持不变。中国人民银行授权全国银 行间同业拆借中心公布，2026年1月20日LPR为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。 2026年，应不断增强宏观政策的协同性和集成效应，让政府资金、金融资源和社会资本形成合力，更精 准服务实体经济。董希淼认为，重点在于财政政策发挥"药引子"作用，通过贴息、担保等方式，为金融 资源进入特定领域降低风险、提供激励；货币政策发挥"灌溉渠"作用，金融机构用好财政政策提供的信 用支持和风险缓释，将资金精准"滴灌"到中小微企业、科技创新、提振消费等重点领域和薄弱环节。 目前，企业融资和居民信贷成本均保持低位运行。记者了解到，2018年下半年以来，人民银行累计10次 下调政策利率，还通过强化利率政策执行和监督，更好发挥存量政策效能，促进社会综合融资成本稳步 下行。2025年12月，新发放企业贷款加权平均利率和新发放个人住房贷款加权平均利率都在3.1%左 右，自2018年下半年以来分别下降了2.5个和2.6个百分点。 今年首次结构性"降息"也已落地。根据中国人民银行公告：自2026年1月19日起，下调再贷款、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2025, resulting in significant support for the real economy and a notable increase in social financing and loan balances [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Statistics - By the end of 2025, the total social financing stock reached 442.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [1]. - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 268.4 trillion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year [1]. - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.5%, significantly outpacing the nominal GDP growth rate [2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - The PBOC utilized various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy [2]. - The issuance of government bonds was accelerated, with a total issuance scale of 16 trillion yuan in 2025, net increasing by 6.6 trillion yuan [3]. - The PBOC's liquidity support through operations like reverse repos has stabilized market expectations and facilitated government bond issuance [3]. Group 3: Financing Structure - In 2025, the incremental social financing was 35.6 trillion yuan, with direct financing accounting for 46.9% of this total, marking a 7.8 percentage point increase compared to the last year of the 13th Five-Year Plan [4]. - The net financing from government bonds was 13.84 trillion yuan, and non-financial corporate bond financing reached 2.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a strong support for private enterprises [4]. - The balance of loans in the "Five Major Financial Articles" reached 107.7 trillion yuan, with significant growth in technology and green loans [6][7]. Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring a suitable monetary environment [8]. - There is still room for further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, as the average reserve requirement ratio stands at 6.3% [9]. - The PBOC aims to lower comprehensive financing costs for enterprises by promoting transparency in loan costs and optimizing the financing environment [9].

Core Insights - The Chinese bond market has expanded significantly, reaching a total scale of over 196 trillion yuan, solidifying its position as the second largest in the world [1] - The market has transitioned from a single-direction trend to a high-volatility environment, indicating a shift in investment strategies and market dynamics [3] - Innovative financial products and tools have emerged, particularly focusing on supporting the national strategy for technological self-reliance [5][6] Macroeconomic Background and Policy Framework - In 2025, macroeconomic policies demonstrated precise coordination and foresight, with a supportive monetary policy maintaining a moderately loose stance [2] - Local government bond issuance exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time, with new special bond issuance reaching 4.59 trillion yuan [2] Bond Yield Trends - The bond market experienced a paradigm shift from a trend-driven environment to a high-volatility market, characterized by a clear "return run" pattern in yields [3] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated between approximately 1.6% and 1.9% throughout the year, reflecting various economic pressures [3] Rate Bonds and Credit Bonds - The primary market saw a dual drive from rate bonds and credit bonds, with significant net financing for government bonds and a robust credit bond issuance [4] - The secondary market exhibited structural differentiation, with high-grade credit bonds performing well while lower-quality bonds faced pressure [4] Innovative Products and New Tools - 2025 marked a year of significant product innovation in the bond market, particularly with the launch of the "technology board" for bonds [5][6] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds surged, with 24 new technology bond ETFs launched, totaling over 273.7 billion yuan [6] Policy and Mechanism Upgrades - The year was recognized for optimizing bond market mechanisms, enhancing efficiency and resilience through various institutional reforms [8][9] - The opening of bond repurchase transactions to foreign institutional investors significantly improved liquidity and international appeal [8][10] Bond Market Opening - The bond market has entered a new phase of deep opening characterized by "rule co-construction," with 1,187 foreign institutions participating and holding approximately 3.61 trillion yuan in bonds [10] - The focus has shifted from mere investment access to providing a market infrastructure aligned with international standards [10] Conclusion - The bond market has played an irreplaceable role in supporting economic recovery and national strategic transformation, becoming more mature and resilient [11] - A clear vision for a modernized bond market that is structured, functional, transparent, and inclusive is emerging, poised to continue empowering high-quality economic development [11]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's recent meeting emphasizes the need for various departments to align their actions with the central government's economic work decisions, focusing on enhancing responsibility and urgency to ensure effective implementation of economic policies for the upcoming year [2][12]. Group 1: Economic Policy Implementation - The meeting highlighted the importance of cross-departmental collaboration to tackle significant tasks that have broad implications, ensuring a collective effort to promote economic development [2][8]. - Departments have already proposed numerous detailed measures to implement the central economic work meeting's decisions, showcasing characteristics such as specificity, collaboration, and proactive efforts [2][12]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aims to stabilize investment by planning major engineering projects and clarifying investment rules, while also enhancing the management of investment projects [4]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase the scale of central budget investments and optimize the use of local government special bonds to better leverage government investment [5]. - To boost consumption, the NDRC is focusing on practical measures such as optimizing policies for replacing old consumer goods and expanding service consumption [6][7]. Group 3: Policy Coordination - The meeting called for enhanced coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, with the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China both emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts to support domestic demand and innovation [9][10]. - The NDRC is tasked with developing regulations for a unified national market, which is essential for promoting fair competition and economic circulation [10]. Group 4: Education and Talent Development - The central economic work meeting introduced a plan for integrated development of education, technology, and talent, with the Ministry of Science and Technology focusing on policy coordination and resource integration [11]. - The Ministry of Education is set to advance the construction of interdisciplinary centers and improve the standards for top-tier universities to support the cultivation of new economic drivers [11]. Group 5: Forward-Looking Strategies - The meeting underscored the importance of proactive measures to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan, with various departments already drafting development plans across multiple sectors [12][13]. - The NDRC emphasized the need for policy continuity and early implementation to achieve a good start for the upcoming years [15].

Economic Policy Shift - The focus of economic policy is shifting from "total growth" to "structural optimization" for 2026[1] - "High-quality development" is now prioritized over "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in policy statements[1] - The introduction of a national unified market regulation aims to enhance market efficiency and address "involution" competition[1] Investment and Consumption - Investment strategies will emphasize "new quality productivity," focusing on technology innovation, digitalization, and green upgrades[1] - The structure of demand is shifting from a single focus on consumption to a dual focus on consumption and investment[1] - Specific measures include increasing central budget investments and optimizing special bonds to stabilize investment[2] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.70% year-on-year[4] - Retail sales increased by 2.90% year-on-year, while exports rose by 5.90% year-on-year[4] - M2 money supply growth is at 8.00%[4] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The broad fiscal deficit is projected to be between 12.5 trillion and 13 trillion yuan for 2026, up from 11.86 trillion yuan in 2025[39] - Fiscal policy will maintain a high deficit rate, with special bonds and government bonds expected to increase[2] - Monetary policy will remain "moderately loose" but will focus on structural guidance and maintaining adequate liquidity[2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025-2026 China Economic Annual Conference highlighted the significance of this year in the context of China's modernization process, with expectations of achieving major economic and social development goals [2][5]. Economic Performance - China's economic output is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, reflecting a robust performance that exceeds expectations [4][5]. - Many institutions forecast a GDP growth rate of around 5% for the year, positioning China as the largest engine of global economic growth [5]. Trade and Policy - The conference emphasized the need to expand both exports and imports, promoting sustainable foreign trade development [7][8]. - There is a focus on enhancing service exports and developing digital and green trade [8]. Income and Economic Growth - The government aims to synchronize the growth of residents' income with economic growth, implementing proactive fiscal policies and maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment [9]. - Policies will include maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while ensuring the stability of the RMB exchange rate [9]. Consumption and Market Dynamics - The "old for new" consumption policy has spurred rapid sales growth in related goods, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles nearing 60% [11]. - There is a plan to implement actions to boost consumption and increase the supply of quality goods and services [11]. Green Development - The conference underscored the importance of green development as a foundation for high-quality growth, with plans to accelerate the construction of a new energy system and expand the application of green electricity [12]. Education and Employment - There is a need to increase the supply of ordinary high school places and improve undergraduate enrollment in quality universities to adapt to changes in the school-age population [13]. - Employment policies will focus on stabilizing job opportunities for key groups, including college graduates and migrant workers [13]. Corporate Environment - The government will continue to address issues related to overdue payments to enterprises and enhance the regulatory environment to foster fair competition [14].

Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of financial support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, indicating a clear direction for financial work in 2026 [1] - The conference highlighted the need for macroeconomic policies to focus on both existing and new policies, enhancing the effectiveness and consistency of macro policy orientation [1][2] - Analysts noted that the emphasis on "cross-cycle adjustment" suggests that macro policy formulation will prioritize long-term economic development rather than short-term stimulus effects [1][2] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The conference called for a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, with an expected increase in new government debt to around 12.5 trillion yuan for 2026 [2] - It was stated that the monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2][3] - The emphasis on maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate at a reasonable level was also noted as part of the monetary policy considerations [2] Group 3: Focus on Inflation and Prices - The conference acknowledged a heightened focus on price levels, with a commitment to promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [3] - Analysts expect potential simultaneous cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates in early 2026, although the extent of these cuts may be limited [3][4] - The need for a balanced approach to fiscal deficits and total debt levels was reiterated, indicating a cautious stance on monetary easing [3][4] Group 4: Key Economic Tasks - The conference identified eight key tasks for economic work in 2026, with a primary focus on domestic demand and building a strong domestic market [6] - Specific measures to boost consumption include implementing special actions to stimulate consumption and expanding the supply of quality goods and services [6][7] - Investment strategies will involve increasing central budget investments and optimizing the use of local government special bonds to stimulate private investment [6][7] Group 5: Financial Sector Reforms - The conference outlined the need for structural reforms in the financial sector, particularly focusing on enhancing the competitiveness of small and medium-sized financial institutions [7][8] - There is a push for the consolidation and restructuring of rural small and medium banks to improve their adaptability and competitiveness in serving local economies [8] - The emphasis on creating a distinctive financial service system for technological innovation indicates a strategic direction for financial institutions to better support industry development [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of financial support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, indicating a clear direction for financial work in 2026 [1][3]. Financial Policy Direction - The conference highlights the need for a proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, while optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and addressing local fiscal difficulties [5][6]. - It is projected that the new government debt scale for 2026 may increase to approximately 12.5 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate maintained at around 4.0%, reflecting an increase of about 200 billion yuan from the previous year [6]. Monetary Policy Approach - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with flexible use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [6][7]. - The emphasis on price levels has increased, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in November, indicating a potential for further monetary easing [6]. Key Economic Tasks - The conference identifies eight key tasks for economic work, with a focus on domestic demand as the primary driver for economic growth in 2026 [10]. - Specific actions include implementing measures to boost consumption, such as increasing funding for consumption from 300 billion yuan to 500 billion yuan, and expanding support for service consumption [11]. Investment and Innovation - The conference aims to stabilize investment by increasing central budget investment and optimizing the use of special bonds, which is expected to enhance market expectations and restore overall investment willingness [11]. - Emphasis is placed on innovation-driven growth, with a focus on developing a technology finance system that supports technological innovation and industry development [12]. Financial Institution Reform - The conference calls for deepening the reform of small and medium financial institutions to enhance their competitiveness and mitigate risks, which is a crucial part of the financial supply-side structural reform [12][13]. - Specific measures include promoting mergers and restructuring of rural small and medium banks to improve their service adaptability and competitiveness [13].