（原标题：连平：下阶段财政政策和货币政策应协同发力促内需｜全球财经连线） 南方财经记者郭晓洁 庞成 实习生李宜馨 横琴报道 其次，美国关税政策和产业政策的不确定性依然较高。在上半年，特朗普政府的关税政策不断推进，对 全球经济产生了重要影响，但其最终走向仍未明确。目前，美国联邦巡回上诉法院已对其关税权限提出 质疑，若美国最高法院支持这一观点，将对后续的关税战产生重大影响。在关税战持续的同时，美国在 产业链、供应链、价值链上对中国的打压也未曾停歇，中美之间的博弈仍将长期存在。然而，从另一方 面来看，这种外部压力也可能在一定程度上促使中国加快科技自立自强的步伐，逐步构建起更为完整、 更具自主性的产业体系。 第三个重要的不确定性因素是美联储的货币政策。去年美联储降息100个基点，而今年由于关税战等因 素引发美联储对通胀走势的重新判断。当前通胀虽有上升，但整体幅度低于预期，而就业状况明显弱于 预期。因此，美联储很有可能在9月重启降息进程，年底前可能继续下调利率，甚至在2026年还会有进 一步降息的动作。若降息落地，将使全球流动性变得更加充裕，部分资本可能会外流并流入包括中国在 内的新兴市场，进而缩小中美之间的利差。但与 ...

季节因素影响导致信贷数据波动 对于如何看待近期的信贷数据，业内人士分析称，贷款增量存在季节特征，对月度贷款数据要综合 分析。 如年初"开门红"的时候贷款就会增长较旺，而7月份则是明显的信贷"小月"。同时，部分银行工作 人员在业绩考核压力下，倾向于将半年末前后的信贷投放前置到6月份完成，这也对7月份贷款数据带来 一定扰动。 "实际上，我国6、7月份信贷数据波动，与金融机构上半年报表披露和实体企业结算窗口期有很大 关系。"一位业内人士解释，一方面，6月份恰逢金融机构半年报披露，部分机构会出现短期调整信贷投 放节奏、拉高6月份数据的情况，这种"冲时点"的做法在以往年份也常常出现，从经营的角度看有一定 的内在逻辑。另一方面，6月份也是企业半年期经营结算的重要时间窗口，大量企业面临货款回收、债 务偿还、资金清算等刚性需求，这种阶段性的资金流动高峰也会反映在信贷数据上。对此，业内人士认 为，观察6、7月份金融数据时，可考虑将两个月的数据合并起来综合分析，剔除季节性和外部冲击因素 的扰动。 8月13日，中国人民银行发布7月份金融统计数据。总体来看，主要金融指标继续高于经济增速，金 融对实体经济支持力度比较大。7月末，社会融 ...

Group 1: Macro Policy Insights - The macro policy focuses on capital replenishment for financial institutions, with monetary policy aimed at reducing overall financing costs and stabilizing bank interest margins [1] - Coordinated policies are expected to enhance consumption momentum and support high-quality economic operation and safety [1] - The implementation of a comprehensive policy package is anticipated to release economic vitality and boost market confidence, creating investment opportunities across various financial sub-sectors [1] Group 2: Banking Sector Outlook - Current monetary policy indicates stable interest margin expectations, with risk mitigation policies aiding in the improvement of bank credit risks [2] - The banking sector is expected to see a slight recovery in growth rates for 2025, with narrowing declines in interest margins and stable asset quality [2] - Overall, listed banks are projected to experience slight improvements in revenue and profit growth year-on-year [2] Group 3: Securities Market Developments - The acceleration of the implementation plan for promoting long-term capital market entry is a key aspect of capital market reforms since September 2024 [3] - The reforms aim to enhance the willingness of long-term capital to enter the market, stabilize returns, and expand the base of long-term funds [3] - Long-term capital is expected to play a significant role in the healthy development of the capital market [3] Group 4: Insurance Sector Trends - The insurance market is experiencing a rebalancing of supply and demand, with a shift towards a slow bull market [4] - Supply-side adjustments are leading to a concentration of life insurance business among leading companies, while demand is shifting towards fixed-income-like products [4] - Leading insurance companies are adopting differentiated competitive strategies to leverage their strengths in the market [4] Group 5: Investment Strategies - For banks, absolute return potential is expected, with a positive credit issuance strategy and stable asset pricing anticipated for Q1 2025 [5] - In the securities sector, long-term positioning around supply-side reforms and strong fundamentals is recommended, particularly for undervalued stocks [5] - The insurance sector is expected to enter a prolonged low-interest-rate phase, with opportunities for growth among leading companies [5]