Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and meal market is influenced by the US soybean oil, showing a strong trend, but pressure from South America remains. The domestic soybean meal demand is good, and inventory accumulation is expected. For sugar, the global supply increase expectation drags down the raw sugar price, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. The short - term trend of oils and fats is affected by geopolitical conflicts and may run strong, but there is a risk of high - level correction. The corn market has a tight domestic supply, and the futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The pig market still faces pressure due to relatively high inventory. The peanut market may decline due to the expected increase in planting area. The egg market may have a weak spot price in the short - term, and the far - month contracts may rise under certain conditions. The apple market is expected to have a slightly stronger and stable futures price in June. The cotton market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - to - long - term [3][11][19][27][31][35][44][48][56] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.26% to 1074 cents/bu, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.44% to 294.3 US dollars/short ton [2] - **Related Information**: As of June 15, EU 2024/25 soybean imports reached 13.58 million tons, up from 12.65 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 6.91 million tons, up from 5.45 million tons last year. As of June 12, US soybean export inspections were only 216,000 tons. From June 9 - 13, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso was 515.08 reais/ton. As of June 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%. Soybean inventory was 5.996 million tons, down 1.75% from last week and up 8.59% year - on - year; soybean meal inventory was 410,000 tons, up 7.19% from last week and down 58.79% year - on - year [2] - **Logic Analysis**: The US soybean market is strong, but South American pressure remains. Domestic demand for soybean meal is good, and inventory accumulation is expected [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, wait and buy at low points; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [6] Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar fell, with the main contract down 0.49 (2.89%) to 16.45 cents/lb [7] - **Important Information**: In the next 30 days, most sugarcane areas in Guangxi will have more precipitation, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. Brazilian hydrous ethanol prices are at an 8 - month low, and the average national alcohol - to - gasoline ratio is 67.7%. In May, Brazilian ethanol sales reached 2.99 billion liters. In the second half of May, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 47.843 million tons of sugarcane, up 5.47% year - on - year; sugar production was 2.951 million tons, up 8.86% year - on - year; ethanol production was down 3.12%. From April 2025 to June 1, the central - southern region cumulatively crushed 124.768 million tons of sugarcane, down 11.85% year - on - year; sugar production was 6.954 million tons, down 11.64% year - on - year; ethanol production was 5.74 billion liters, down 11.36% year - on - year. In the first two weeks of June, Brazil exported 1.53 million tons of sugar and molasses, down 12.8% year - on - year [8][9][10] - **Logic Analysis**: The raw sugar price is dragged down by the expected increase in global supply, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [11] - **Trading Strategy**: Passively follow the raw sugar price, expect short - term weakness, and sell high. For arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [12][13][14] Oils and Fats - **External Market**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price fell 0.89% to 54.69 cents/lb; the BMD palm oil main price rose 0.74% to 4096 ringgit/ton [16] - **Related Information**: Anec expects Brazilian soybean exports in June to reach 14.37 million tons. French 2025 winter rapeseed production is expected to reach 4.2 million tons, up 9.4% year - on - year. As of June 15, EU 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.74 million tons, down from 3.36 million tons last year; soybean imports were 13.58 million tons, up from 12.65 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 6.91 million tons, up from 5.45 million tons last year. On June 17, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 17,560 tons, down 55% from the previous trading day [17][18] - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affect the market. India's reduction of the crude palm oil tax may increase purchases. Domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, and the supply of rapeseed oil is in excess, but the bottom support is strong [19] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate strongly, but beware of high - level corrections. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Change**: The CBOT corn futures main contract rose 0.5% to 438.5 cents/bu [24] - **Important Information**: On the 17th, DDGS prices rose slightly. The wheat market price is rising, and the corn price is also rising, increasing the wheat's feed substitution advantage. As of June 12, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 1.135 million tons, up 119,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 300 tons, unchanged from last week; the imported sorghum was 433,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from last week; the imported barley was 333,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from last week. On June 16, the purchase price in the northern port was stable, and the corn price in the North China production area continued to rise [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The US corn sowing is accelerating, and the domestic supply is tight. The 07 corn futures fluctuate at a high level, and the basis narrows. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures will fluctuate at a high level [27] - **Trading Strategy**: For the external market, the 07 corn fluctuates at the bottom. Wait and see for the 07 corn. For arbitrage, operate the corn - starch spread, buy 09 starch and short 09 corn when the spread is low. Hold long corn and short 07 or 09 corn. For options, those with spot can consider selling high carefully [28][29] Pig - **Related Information**: The pig price is oscillating downward. As of June 17, the national 7 - kg piglet price was 443 yuan/head, down 12 yuan/head from June 13; the 15 - kg piglet price was 542 yuan/head, down 12 yuan/head from June 13; the 50 - kg sow price was 1619 yuan/head, unchanged from June 13. On June 17, the national average wholesale price of pork was 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.7% [31] - **Logic Analysis**: The market supply pressure is alleviated, but the inventory is still high, and the upward space of futures is limited [31] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term short operation. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [32] Peanut - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume of peanut oil mills is different, and the peanut oil price is strong, but there is room for negotiation. Peanut meal sales are weak. As of June 12, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 139,340 tons, down 5280 tons from last week; as of June 13, the peanut oil inventory was 39,930 tons, down 170 tons from last week [33][34] - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut spot trading is light. The expected increase in new - season planting area may lead to a price decline [35] - **Trading Strategy**: Short 10 - month peanuts at high prices. For arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell pk510 - C - 8800 options [36][37][38] Egg - **Important Information**: The main egg - producing area price rose 0.04 yuan/jin, and the main sales area price fell 0.1 yuan/jin. In May, the national laying hen inventory was 1.334 billion, up 0.11 billion from last month and 7.2% year - on - year. In May, the egg chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, down 4% month - on - month and up 1% year - on - year. In the week of June 13, the national main - producing area laying hen culling volume was 20.52 million, up 2.8% from the previous week. As of June 12, the average culling age was 512 days, down 3 days from the previous week. As of June 12, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 8194 tons, down 7.4% from last week. As of June 13, the average inventory in the production link was 1.03 days, up 0.09 days from last week; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, up 0.02 days from the previous week. As of June 12, the average weekly egg profit was - 0.47 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous week; on June 13, the expected laying hen breeding profit was 15.5 yuan/feather, down 1.09 yuan/jin from the previous week [41][42][43] - **Trading Logic**: The egg consumption is in the off - season, and the spot price may be weak. The far - month contracts may rise if the culling volume increases [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Build long positions in the 8 - and 9 - month far - month contracts in mid - to - late June. Short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts. For options, wait and see [44] Apple - **Important Information**: As of June 11, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 1.2746 million tons, down 107,400 tons from last week. In 2025, the cumulative apple export volume from January to March was 255,600 tons, up 9.5% year - on - year; the import volume was 13,300 tons, up 123.9% year - on - year. The apple price is stable, and the demand is in the off - season [46] - **Trading Logic**: The low inventory may support the price of early - maturing apples. The 10 - month futures price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in June [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Build long positions in the AP10 contract at low prices. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [49][50][51] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton rose, with the main contract rising 0.15 (0.22%) to 68.05 cents/lb [52] - **Important Information**: As of June 14, the Brazilian cotton harvesting progress was 2.8%, up 1.4 percentage points from last week. As of June 15, the US cotton planting rate was 85%, 4 percentage points slower than last year; the budding rate was 19%, 2 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 3%, the same as last year; the good - quality rate was 48%, 6 percentage points lower than last year. The cotton spot trading is generally cold, and the sales basis is firm [53][54][55] - **Trading Logic**: The current trading logic is mainly macro - oriented. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to decline [56] - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [57][58]

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has issued a notice regarding the expansion of the scope for qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs) to participate in commodity futures and options trading [1] Group 1: Expansion of QFII Participation - The notice outlines measures to enhance the participation of QFIIs in the trading of commodity futures and options [1] - This initiative aims to attract more foreign investment into the Chinese commodity market, thereby increasing market liquidity and depth [1] - The DCE emphasizes the importance of creating a more open and inclusive trading environment for international investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has issued a notice to expand the participation of qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs) in commodity futures and options trading, facilitating their engagement in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The notice allows banks qualified for margin deposit services to directly engage in margin deposit business for QFIIs, with a total of 15 banks eligible [1]. - Futures companies must manage the trading permissions and ensure compliance with the regulations for QFIIs, including the opening of accounts and suitability management [1][2]. Group 2: Risk Management and Compliance - ZCE emphasizes the importance of risk management and the need for futures companies to guide QFIIs on trading, settlement, and related risks to ensure orderly participation in the market [2]. - All relevant entities are required to prepare for QFIIs' participation in commodity futures and options trading, enhancing risk control measures to maintain market stability [2]. Group 3: Designated Banks for Margin Deposits - A list of banks qualified for margin deposit services for domestic clients includes major banks such as Bank of Communications, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank among others [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has issued a notice regarding the expansion of the scope for qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs) to participate in commodity futures and options trading [1] Group 1 - The notice aims to enhance the participation of QFIIs in the trading of commodity futures and options, which is expected to increase market liquidity and attract more foreign investment [1] - The ZCE outlines specific measures to facilitate the inclusion of more foreign investors, thereby broadening the trading base and improving market efficiency [1] - This initiative is part of a broader strategy to integrate China's commodity markets with global markets, promoting international collaboration and investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has issued a notice to further expand the participation of Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs) in commodity futures and options trading [1] Group 1 - The notice aims to enhance the scope of QFIIs' involvement in the trading of commodity futures and options [1] - This initiative is part of a broader effort to attract more foreign investment into China's commodity markets [1] - The expansion is expected to improve market liquidity and promote the internationalization of China's futures market [1]

Group 1 - Five Below Inc's stock is currently down 1.2% to $124.92 following disappointing retail sales data for May, but it has a 22.9% gain over the past nine months and recently reached a 52-week high of $137.30 on June 5, with a support level at $120 [1] - The stock's recent peak coincides with low implied volatility, indicated by a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 46%, which is in the 14th percentile of its annual range; historically, after similar occurrences, the stock has risen 67% of the time one month later, averaging a 5% increase [2] - Short interest in Five Below has decreased by 31.3% in the most recent reporting period, although it still represents 6.2% of the stock's available float, suggesting potential for further upward movement if short sellers continue to exit [3] Group 2 - The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is high at 95 out of 100, indicating that the stock has historically exceeded volatility expectations, which may benefit options buyers looking to capitalize on future price movements [4]

Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints - The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation has reached a framework consensus, but there is no incremental information. The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. The increase in US inflation is less than expected, supporting the Fed to cut interest rates earlier, and the Middle East geopolitical tensions drive up the price of gold. The container shipping index is in a shock consolidation. The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound oscillation. The coking coal and coke market expectations are improving. The prices of various energy - chemical and agricultural products show different trends [2] Summary by Variety Financial - **Stock Index**: The index has stable support below and pressure to break through above. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. It is recommended to sell the put options of the CSI 1000 Index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect the premium [2] - **Treasury Bond**: The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. In the short - term, it is advisable to allocate long positions on dips. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract. If there is no sudden change in the trade negotiation this week, Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate strongly. Currently, 1.6% is the downward resistance level of the 10 - year bond interest rate [2] - **Precious Metal**: Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. Do the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options to earn time value. Consider going long on the main contract on dips. Be cautious about the flow of speculative funds in silver and the "killing decline" caused by long - position profit - taking [2] Black - **Steel**: The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline range of apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on finished products and short on raw materials [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change of terminal demand [2] - **Coking Coal**: The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, the coal mine start - up has declined from a high level, and the spot has signs of stabilizing. It is recommended to go long on JM2509 on dips [2] - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented. The futures price has a rebound expectation. It is recommended to go long on J2509 on dips [2] - **Silicon Iron**: It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5300 - 5400 [2] - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure still exists. It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5700 - 5800 [2] Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The domestic spot trading has weakened, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract reference range is 77000 - 80000 [2] - **Zinc**: The mine - end resumption of production provides incremental supply, and the zinc price oscillates weakly [2] - **Nickel**: The afternoon sentiment improved, and the price rose slightly. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2] - **Stainless Steel**: After the price limit was partially restored, the price turned red, but the fundamental contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The main contract reference range is 12400 - 13000 [2] - **Tin**: Due to the slow recovery of supply and the warming of macro - sentiment, the tin price continues to rise. It is recommended to adopt a short - term long - bias strategy [2] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks are rising. The short - term oil price is likely to continue the strong - bias oscillation trend. Pay attention to the opportunity of monthly spread expansion [2] - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand has not improved. The downward pressure on the price remains. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The support level of the main contract is adjusted to 1620 - 1640. Consider the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [2] - **PX**: The cost side is strong, and the supply - demand situation is good. It has support at 6400 - 6500 in the short - term. Do short - term long operations; mainly do short - term reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2] - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, but the cost side is strong. It is in a stalemate oscillation. Operate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term; mainly do reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 when it is high [2] - **Short - fiber**: Under the expectation of factory production cuts, the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; expand the processing fee on the PF disk when it is low [2] - **Bottle Chip**: In the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production cuts for bottle chips, and the processing fee is bottom - seeking. It follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA. The processing fee on the main PF disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower edge of the range [2] - **Ethanol**: The short - term demand is weak, but the supply - demand structure of MEG is still good. It is expected to oscillate in the range. Oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400 for EG09 in the short - term; pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 on dips [2] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The short - term raw materials and benzene ethylene destocking support the price. Pay attention to the medium - term contradiction. Wait and see in the short - term, and consider high - short operations in the medium - term when there is a raw material resonance opportunity [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand expectation is not good, the spot price has回调, and the near - month support is insufficient. Exit the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage. Wait and see for unilateral operations [2] - **PVC**: The short - term contradiction has not further intensified, and the macro - disturbance has increased. The price is in a low - level consolidation. Wait and see in the short - term, and maintain a high - short strategy for medium - and long - term participation [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR follows the commodity price fluctuation. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2] - **LLDPE**: The spot price and basis change little, and the trading volume is moderate [2] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Oscillate weakly and go short on rallies [2] - **Methanol**: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it oscillates [2] Agricultural - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: During the Sino - US trade negotiation, the price runs strongly [2] - **Pig**: The demand is weak due to the hot weather, but the rising feed price boosts the price. Pay attention to the performance around 13500 [2] - **Corn**: The upward momentum weakens, and it oscillates at a high level. Oscillate around 2380 in the short - term [2] - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the concern about production, it falls inertia - ally. It may test the support at 7800 in the short - term [2] - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. Do short - selling on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. Do short - selling on rebounds [2] - **Egg**: There is a risk that the spot price may weaken again. Do short - selling on the rebound of the 07 contract and hold the short position [2] - **Apple**: The price in the sales area is stable, and the transaction is priced according to quality. The main contract runs around 7500 [2] - **Jujube**: The market price runs weakly and stably. It runs around 8900 in the short - term [2] - **Peanut**: The market price oscillates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2] - **Soda Ash**: The over - supply logic continues. Maintain the high - short strategy on rebounds. Hold the high - level short position and do the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: Affected by the cold - repair news, the price fluctuates repeatedly. Wait and see in the short - term [2] - **Rubber**: The driving force is limited, and the rubber price oscillates. Adopt a high - short strategy when it rebounds above 14000 [2] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rises, and the futures - spot price gradually converges. The polysilicon futures price stabilizes and rebounds. Hold the short position cautiously or close the position first [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the news, the price rises, but the fundamental logic remains unchanged. Observe the performance around 62,000 first [2]