2025 年 06 月 17 日 行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 谢文迪 S0350522110004 xiewd@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 一个民间预测指标如何成为资产价格的"隐形推 手"？ ——钢铁与大宗商品行业专题研究 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | | 2025/06/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 钢铁 | | -1.9% | -8.7% | 7.6% | | 沪深 | 300 | -0.4% | -3.3% | 9.4% | 相关报告 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：海外贸易拉锯+美联 储鹰声为主线，国内政策主动作为（无评级）*钢 铁*谢文迪》——2025-05-13 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：美国关税加码，全球 资产"震颤"（无评级）*钢铁*谢文迪》—— 2025-04-15 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：关税风险支撑溢价， 铜金最为受益（无评级）*钢铁*谢文迪》—— 2025-03-24 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：会议落地黑色情绪回 落，关税高悬有色价格走高（无评级）* ...

核 心 观 点 临近年中，财政政策效力已初步显现，但收入相比于预算目标仍有距离。那么，财政收支当前究竟处于怎 样的水平？政府融资的节奏和结构如何？后续还会有增量政策么？ 收支目标能完成么？ 一般公共预算收入方面 ，前4个月全国一般公共预算收入增速不及预算目，不过呈逐 月改善的态势，收入进度略低于近五年同期平均进度。今年财政收入端的修复主要缘于税收的改善，4月 税收同比增速年内单月首次转正，不过主要贡献是波动较大的个人所得税，修复持续性还有待观察。 一般 公共预算支出方面 ，1-4月一般公共预算支出同比增长已超目标，进度创2020年以来同期新高，一是国债 发行节奏前置形成的支出效应，二是收入端对于狭义财政支出的拖累减弱。结构上民生类支出明显强于基 建类支出，反映财政对于消费的支持强于投资。 政府性基金收支方面， 收入进度处于历年同期较低水 平，不过4月土地出让收入已有改善迹象；支出端来看，1-4 月政府性基金预算支出增速已较接近预算目 标，强于收入端。 政府融资快还是慢？ 今年1-4月，狭义赤字规模创历史同期新高，进度远高于近五年同期平均水平；广义 赤字的使用进度高于狭义赤字，不过仅略快于近五年同期平均水平，前 ...

证书:S1320524070001 证书:S1320523020004 投资要点： 财政发力进度跟踪（20250616） [Table_Author] 陈国文 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:chenguowen@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 06 月 16 日 一般公共预算支出完成进度较快，印证财政政策总体保持积极。2025 年 一般公共预算支出的目标额度为 29.7 万亿元，截止 4 月份，一般公共 预算支出规模达到 9.358 万亿元，较全年目标额度的完成进度达到 31.5%。五年维度看，高于同期值水平。 赤字使用进度处于同期高位。2025 年赤字规模目标为 5.66 万亿元。截 止 4 月份，赤字规模已使用金额为 12965 亿元，剩余 43635 亿元，赤字 使用进度达到 22.9%。当前赤字使用进度处于季节性低位，但五年维度 看，仍处于同期高位水平。如果考虑调入资金及使用结转结余预算数， 则赤字使用进度为 16.8%。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 国债发行进度相对较快，额度空间仍较大。2024 年国债余 ...

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus forecast of 5.7%[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations and up 1.3 percentage points from April[10] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7% from January to May, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous period[18] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to May rose by 8.5% year-on-year, while real estate investment fell by 10.7%[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate new construction area was 22.8%, with completed area down by 17.3%[22] - High-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.5% in industrial added value from January to May[6] Policy Implications - The importance of stabilizing domestic demand is emphasized, especially with external uncertainties remaining high[30] - Active fiscal policies are being accelerated, with government bond financing continuing to grow significantly[30] - The government is focusing on measures to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumer spending[30] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation and a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the necessity of strengthening fiscal support to translate policy measures into tangible benefits for the public [1][2] - The recent policy document outlines various measures aimed at addressing the most pressing livelihood issues faced by the populace, including employment, pension, education, and basic living security [1][2] - The government aims to ensure sustainable fiscal support for people's livelihoods while maintaining a balance between economic development and financial capacity [4][5] Group 2 - The fiscal policy is directed towards optimizing expenditure structures and enhancing financial guarantees for basic livelihood sectors such as education, health, and social security [3][4] - Significant increases in budget allocations for education, social security, and employment are projected, with nearly 4.5 trillion yuan allocated for these sectors by 2025, reflecting a growth of 6.1% and 5.9% respectively [2] - The government is committed to improving the minimum standards for pensions and public health funding, which will enhance the public's sense of well-being and security [4][5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 15 年 月 日 当前为何要重视建筑央企港股投资机会？ 央企港股估值极低，A/H 价差大，股息率具备较强吸引力 。截至 2024/6/13，中国中铁、中国铁建、中国交通建设的 H 股 PE（ TTM）均小 于 4 倍；中国中铁、中国铁建、中国交通建设、中国中冶、中国能源建设 PB（ MRQ）均小于 0.4 倍，建筑央企港股估值处于极低位置。从 A 股与 H 股的价差看，两地上市的中国中铁、中国铁建、中国交通建设、中国中冶、 中国能源建设 5 家公司 A/H 价差平均为 86% 所有两地上市公司 A/H 价 差平均为 73%），其中中国中冶、中国能源建设 A/H 价差超过 100%。从 股息率看，我们统计的 7 家建筑央企 见表 1）H 股的平均股息率 TTM） 为 5.16%，其中中国中铁、中国铁建、中国交通建设、中石化炼化工程 H 股股息率 TTM）均高于 5%，具备较强吸引力。 对保险等长周期资金来说，建筑央企港股配置性价比凸显。监管政策积极 引导中长期资金入市，证监会等六部委印发《关于推动中长期资金入市工 作的实施方案》，预计增量中长 ...

信贷同比延续少增。 5月份新增人民币贷款6200亿元，同比少增额收窄至3300亿元。其中，居民部门贷款新增540亿元，同比由多减转为少增217亿元，短期贷款减 少208亿元、中长期贷款增加746亿元，从同比变化来看，居民短贷同比多减额略降至451亿元，中长贷同多增额收窄至232亿元。企业部门贷款增加5300亿元，主要 由中长贷和短贷贡献，票据融资较弱，同比少增额降至2100亿元，从分项来看，企业短贷增加1100亿元，同比由多减转为多增2300亿元，企业中长贷增加3300亿 元，同比少增额继续扩大至1700亿元，票据融资规模增加746亿元，同比少增2826亿元 。 报 告 正 文 有效融资需求暂显不足。 5月社融同比保持多增，除了政府债融资保持较高规模以外，低利率带动企业债券融资好转。不过，5月信贷依然偏弱，一方面化债对于企 业贷款的替代效应仍然存在，关税政策也继续影响着企业的融资意愿，反映在企业短期贷款和票据融资整体走弱；另一方面，实体部门融资需求仍然偏弱，降息后 居民的加杠杆意愿尚未有明显增强，财政政策有待加力提效 。 财政资金拨付提振M1。 5月M1增速反弹，一是主要受到去年同期整顿存款"手工补息"带来的 ...

中国人民银行6月13日发布数据显示，5月金融数据与实体经济运行情况合理匹配， 5月社会融资规模、 M2和人民币贷款增速均明显高于名义GDP增速 。 业内专家表示，总体来看，金融总量继续合理增长，支持实体经济力度保持稳固。财政、产业等宏观政 策也靠前发力、更加积极有为，与货币政策形成更强合力，推动经济持续回稳向好。 数据速览： 5月末，广义货币（M2）余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9% "5月份这部分'活钱'的增速明显加快，体现近期发布的一揽子金融支持措施有效提振了市场信心，投 资、消费等经济活动有回暖提升的迹象。"这位专家说。 5月末，狭义货币（M1）余额108.91万亿元，同比增长2.3% 5月末，社会融资规模存量426.16万亿元，同比增长8.7% 前5个月，社会融资规模增量18.63万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元 前5个月，人民币贷款增加10.68万亿元 政府债券拉动社融较快增长 数据显示，5月，社会融资规模增量为2.29万亿元，同比多增2247亿元，主要是受到政府债券和企业债 券等直接融资的拉动。 业内专家分析，政府债券是拉动社会融资规模较快增长的最主要因素。进入二季度，在特殊再融资债发 行 ...

Core Insights - The World Bank's latest economic report indicates that China's GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by policy support that enhances consumer spending and a recovery in housing sales in major cities [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - Strengthening consumer spending is identified as crucial for maintaining economic growth amid external and domestic challenges [1] - Increased public investment and targeted support for residents are expected to bolster economic growth through more proactive fiscal policies [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments are responding significantly to policy support, with rapid growth in infrastructure investment observed in the first four months of 2025 due to accelerated bond issuance and fund allocation by the government [1] - Manufacturing investment is also maintaining robust growth, aided by policies related to large-scale equipment upgrades and targeted support for key industries [1]

Group 1 - The issuance of refinancing special bonds by local governments has reached nearly 2 trillion yuan, with several provinces completing their annual issuance tasks ahead of schedule [1][3] - Experts believe that the early issuance of refinancing special bonds highlights a clear direction of proactive fiscal policy, providing more fiscal space for local economic stability [2][6] - As of June 11, the total issuance of refinancing special bonds by local governments has reached 19,281.24 billion yuan, with additional plans from Shandong, Yunnan, and Beijing bringing the total to 20,300 billion yuan [3][7] Group 2 - Jiangsu Province leads in issuance with 2,781.42 billion yuan, followed by Shandong, Beijing, Yunnan, and others, all exceeding 1,000 billion yuan [4][5] - The majority of the refinancing special bonds issued this year are long-term, with 73.21% of the 224 bonds having a maturity of at least 10 years [6] - The interest rates for refinancing special bonds are generally low, with 30-year bonds ranging from 1.90% to 2.35% [6] Group 3 - The National People's Congress has approved an increase of 60,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits to replace hidden debts, with 20,000 billion yuan allocated annually from 2024 to 2026 [7][8] - The government work report emphasizes the need to balance debt resolution with development quality and fiscal sustainability [8] - The shift in local debt management from risk prevention to a dual focus on risk prevention and development promotion is noted as a significant change in strategy [8]