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宏观经济研究:2025年9月大类资产配置报告
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-28 09:20
Global Economic Overview - The US economy is in a recovery phase, with the S&P 500 index reaching new highs, while US Treasury yields remain stable[1] - The US has implemented a new round of tariffs, with a trade agreement framework reached with multiple countries, though key terms are yet to be executed[1] - Inflation risks coexist with a cooling labor market, leaving the Federal Reserve in a difficult position regarding monetary policy[1] Domestic Economic Conditions - The real estate sector in China continues to face contraction pressures, with the effectiveness of policies like "trade-in for new" diminishing[1] - Government policies in August leaned more towards fiscal measures rather than monetary easing, maintaining high real interest rates that suppress economic vitality[1] - The demand remains weak, with low price levels persisting in the domestic market[1] Asset Allocation Insights - International stock markets are the primary source of profit, benefiting from a weaker dollar and improved international trade conditions[1] - The report suggests a bullish outlook on copper prices and a hedging strategy with oil, while being bearish on international bond markets[1] - The global asset allocation index indicates a shift towards equities, particularly in non-US markets, as the dollar weakens[1] Risks and Challenges - Risks include domestic macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations, potential overseas economic recession, commodity price volatility, and unexpected shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy[2]
招商证券:基建正增速略收窄 关注财政发力与重大工程建设提速进展
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 07:05
Group 1 - The new regulations for existing PPP projects are expected to accelerate construction progress and alleviate operational debts for construction companies [1] - The cumulative growth rate of funds in place for fixed asset investment from January to July is 1.0%, showing improvement compared to previous months [1] - The growth rate of budgetary funds increased by 9.4% in the same period, indicating a positive trend in fiscal revenue [1] Group 2 - New signed orders in the construction industry are under pressure, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% in the first half of 2025 [2] - The cumulative investment in projects that have commenced construction from January to July reached 24.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.8% [2] Group 3 - The physical workload in key sectors such as energy, transportation, and water conservancy is showing marginal weakness, with production declines in cement, steel, glass, and asphalt [3] - The price of steel increased by 2.1% month-on-month, while cement and asphalt prices decreased [3] Group 4 - The growth rate of broad infrastructure investment from January to July is 7.3%, slightly slowing down compared to previous months [4] - Fixed asset investment completion reached 28.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [4] - Specific sectors like electricity and water supply are seeing significant investment growth, while transportation and water management are maintaining lower growth rates [4] Group 5 - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises with strong fundamentals and low valuations under a more proactive fiscal policy [5] - It highlights three paths for industry maturation: competition among existing players, regional investment opportunities, and the development of new productive forces [5] - Recommended companies for investment include China State Construction, China Railway, and China Communications Construction [5]
国债期货日报:股债调整,国债期货全线收涨-20250828
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 05:47
股债调整,国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面:(1)宏观政策:7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,依法依 规治理企业无序竞争,积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险,严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引;2025年8月1日, 财政部与税务总局发布公告称,自2025年8月8日起,对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券(包括8月8日后续发行的部分)仍享受免征增值税政策,直 至到期。(2)通胀:7月CPI同比持平。 资金面:(3)财政:2025年7月金融数据显示,M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%,剪刀差收窄至3.2%,表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升,但信贷派生效率偏弱,居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩,投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%,结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底,企业中长期融资需求依然低迷,大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局,后续走势取决于实体融资需求 修复及财政发行节奏。(4)央行:2025-08-27,央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了379 ...
财政政策持续发力 政府债券加快发行使用
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 09:02
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the acceleration of government bond issuance and utilization as part of a proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth [1][2][6] - As of August 26, 2023, the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds reached 996 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 76.6% [2][6] - Local government special bonds have been issued at a scale of 31,497.6 billion yuan, representing a 40% increase compared to the same period last year [6][7] Group 2 - The plan for 2025 includes issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long special government bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan from 2024, focusing on key areas [2] - The funds from ultra-long special government bonds are expected to support significant investments, including 1 trillion yuan in total investment driven by 188 billion yuan allocated for equipment updates [2][9] - The use of local government special bonds has expanded, with 28.2% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18.8% to transportation infrastructure, and 12.9% to land reserves [7][8] Group 3 - The issuance of local government special bonds is expected to stabilize and improve the real estate market by funding land reserves and the acquisition of existing properties [8][9] - The government is actively expanding the scope of special bond usage, including investments in government investment guidance funds [8][9] - Experts predict that the combined efforts of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds will significantly stimulate investment and support domestic demand [9][10]
国债期货日报:权益回调,国债期货大多收涨-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 08:03
国债期货日报 | 2025-08-27 权益回调,国债期货大多收涨 市场分析 宏观面:(1)宏观政策:7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,依法依 规治理企业无序竞争,积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险,严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引;2025年8月1日, 财政部与税务总局发布公告称,自2025年8月8日起,对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券(包括8月8日后续发行的部分)仍享受免征增值税政策,直 至到期。(2)通胀:7月CPI同比持平。 资金面:(3)财政:2025年上半年,全国财政运行总体平稳,支出扩张力度加大、收支结构持续优化。一般公共 预算收入达11.56万亿元,同比微降0.3%,其中税收收入占比超八成,尽管总体下降1.2%,但增值税、消费税、个 税等主要税种保持增长,显示税源恢复态势逐步确立。支出方面,一般公共预算支出14.13万亿元,同比增长3.4%, 聚焦社会保障、教育、科技、卫生等民生和发展重点领域。政府性基金预算支出同比大增30%,其中中央特别国债 和专项债资金加快投放带动基建投入;尽管土地出让收入 ...
瑞银:美联储政治化恐引发三重经济风险
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 22:05
Core Viewpoint - UBS indicates that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole displayed a "classic Powell style," signaling an increased probability of a rate cut in September to counteract the drag from trade tariffs, but lacking a mid-term policy framework for an economy facing structural changes [1] Group 1 - The market welcomed the hints of a rate cut, but UBS believes the core message is essentially "data-dependent rhetoric wrapped in fancy language" [1] - UBS pointed out that Powell did not provide a stronger defense of the Federal Reserve's independence, which may lead to potential political influences from Trump on the Fed [1] Group 2 - Potential consequences of a politicized Federal Reserve include: 1) Reignition of inflation uncertainty 2) An increase in actual borrowing costs by an entire percentage point 3) Ripple effects on fiscal policy, corporate investment, housing affordability, household savings, and speculative activities [1]
2025年7月财政数据点评:7月财政收入端有所改善,支出端继续发力
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-08-25 05:52
Revenue Insights - In July 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, improving from a decline of -0.3% in June[1] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% in July, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.0%, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%[5] - The cumulative general public budget revenue from January to July showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of -0.3% previously[7] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in July rose by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from May[8] - Cumulative expenditure from January to July grew by 3.4%, slightly below the average progress of 54.4% over the past five years, completing 54.1% of the annual budget[9] Government Fund Performance - In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, although this was a decrease of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Government fund expenditure in July surged by 42.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown of 36.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - From January to July, government fund expenditure grew by 31.7%, significantly outpacing the revenue growth due to accelerated issuance of local government special bonds, totaling 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[11]
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-8-25)-20250825
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 04:47
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Bullish with Volatility [2] - Rebar and Coiled Steel: Volatile [2] - Glass: Bullish with Volatility [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - SSE 50 Index: Bullish [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 5 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 10 - Year Treasury Bond: Downward [3] - Gold: Bullish with Volatility [3] - Silver: Bullish with Volatility [3] - Pulp: Consolidating [4] - Logs: Range - bound Volatility [4] - Soybean Oil: Bullish with Volatility [4] - Palm Oil: Bullish with Volatility [4] - Rapeseed Oil: Bullish with Volatility [4] - Soybean Meal: Volatile [4] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile [4] - No. 2 Soybeans: Volatile [4] - No. 1 Soybeans: Bearish with Volatility [4] - Live Pigs: Bearish with Volatility [6] - Rubber: Volatile [8] - PX: Hold for Observation [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Hold for Observation [8] - PR: Hold for Observation [8] - PF: Bullish with Volatility [8] Core Views - The short - term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations. However, Powell signaled a potential interest rate cut, providing support for commodities [2] - The expected blast furnace production restrictions in China have been temporarily disproven, so the impact on iron ore demand is minimal. The iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2] - Affected by a coal mine accident in Fujian and the initial success of anti - cut - throat competition, coking coal and coke prices rose sharply overnight. The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow, and coal prices are supported in the short term [2] - The steel market's supply - demand contradiction has intensified. With the approaching traditional peak season, the spot demand for rebar remains weak, and the futures price is looking for support after a significant adjustment [2] - The glass market's supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly in the short term. The market is subject to many sentiment disturbances, and the real demand needs to be further observed [2] - The stock index market has seen capital inflows into semiconductor, computer hardware, and financial sectors, while capital has flowed out of aviation and gas sectors. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][3] - The bond market has shown weak trends due to market interest rate fluctuations. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position [3] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The current logic driving the gold price increase remains valid, and gold is expected to be bullish with volatility [3] - The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate [4] - The log market has relatively small supply pressure and increasing demand for stocking up by processing plants. The price is expected to move within a range [4] - The oil market has positive demand prospects. The demand for biofuels is increasing, and the inventory of palm oil is lower than expected. The oil market is expected to be bullish with volatility [4] - The meal market is affected by factors such as the adjustment of soybean planting area, weather conditions, and import policies. The market is expected to be volatile [4] - The live pig market has an increasing supply and weak consumption demand due to high - temperature weather. The price is expected to be bearish with volatility [6] - The natural rubber market has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, but the gap is narrowing. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [8] - The PX market is affected by the uncertainty of ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the reduction of old production capacity in South Korea. The price is relatively strong [8] - The PTA market's supply - demand situation has improved, and the price mainly follows cost fluctuations [8] - The MEG market has increasing supply pressure, but low inventory supports the price [8] - The PR and PF markets have relatively stable short - term supply - demand structures, but the market's expectations for future demand are cautious [8] Summaries by Categories Metals - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments have increased significantly on a环比 basis, and the arrival volume has also rebounded. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure under high port clearance. The terminal demand is weak, but steel mills have little motivation to cut production actively. The price is expected to be volatile [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by a coal mine accident and anti - cut - throat competition, the prices rose sharply overnight. The recovery of coal mines in production areas is slow, and downstream enterprises'开工 rates remain high. The price is expected to be bullish with volatility [2] - **Rebar and Coiled Steel**: The steel mill's production restrictions in Tangshan are less than expected. The overall demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction has intensified. The price is expected to be volatile [2] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and its de - fiat currency attribute is becoming more prominent. The market's risk - aversion demand still exists, and the price is expected to be bullish with volatility [3] Financial Futures - **Stock Indices**: The market's bullish sentiment is rising due to policies such as large - scale equipment updates and promoting sports consumption. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][3] - **Bonds**: The bond market trends are weak due to market interest rate fluctuations. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position [3] Industrial Products - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is in the off - season. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate [4] - **Logs**: The supply pressure is relatively small, and the demand for stocking up by processing plants is increasing. The price is expected to move within a range [4] - **Rubber**: The supply - demand gap in the natural rubber market is narrowing. With the expected improvement in supply and relatively stable demand, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [8] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The PX price is relatively strong due to supply - demand and production capacity factors. The PTA price follows cost fluctuations, the MEG price is supported by low inventory, and the PR and PF markets have stable short - term supply - demand but cautious demand expectations [8] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Meals**: The demand for oils is positive due to biofuel demand and lower - than - expected palm oil inventory. The meal market is affected by planting area, weather, and import policies, and is expected to be volatile [4] - **Live Pigs**: The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is weak due to high - temperature weather. The price is expected to be bearish with volatility [6]
央行今日开展6000亿元MLF操作 8月净投放规模显著扩大
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-08-25 02:10
"监管层在引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度,持续注入中期流动性,体现了货币政策与财政政策之 间的协调配合。"业内人士对智通财经记者表示,8月净投放规模持续扩大背后也受反内卷牵动市场预 期,以及股市走强等因素影响。"近期中长端市场利率普遍上行,银行体系流动性有所收紧。" 8月央行净投放规模扩大 支持银行体系流动性 今日,央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作,期限为1年期。考虑到 截至8月22日,央行还开展了3000亿买断式逆回购净投放,这意味着8月中期流动性净投放总额达6000 亿,相当于上月的2倍,为2025年2月以来最大规模净投放。 今日央行开展6000亿元MLF操作,期限为1年期。这也是央行连续第6个月加量续作,同时本月央行MLF 净投放达到3000亿。在5月降准释放长期流动性10000亿之后,近三个月中期流动性持续处于净投放状 态,且8月净投放规模显著扩大。 进入月底,流动性摩擦再升级,市场认为波动较往年同期或更为明显,除了月末或出现季节性趋紧之 外,仍需关注非季节性因素的影响,比如股债联动效应对资金的分流和情绪的压制。 一位债券投资员对智通财经记者表示,尽管股市强劲但债 ...
整治“内卷”稳收入 财政政策着力“投资于人”
证券时报· 2025-08-25 00:35
Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy for the second half of the year will continue to follow a theme of "more proactive, more precise, and more sustainable" measures aimed at boosting consumption and investing in human capital [1][10]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Direction - Recent actions by fiscal authorities indicate a shift towards "investing in people," with a focus on enhancing tax fairness and addressing "involution" in competition [1][3]. - The increase in public budget revenue in July, the highest year-to-date, is attributed to the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, which have improved corporate profits and tax revenues [3][4]. - The restoration of VAT on interest from government bonds aims to create a fairer tax environment and guide funds towards credit bond markets [3][4]. Group 2: Investment in Human Capital - There has been a noticeable increase in public budget expenditures on social security, health, and cultural sectors, reflecting a clear shift towards "investing in people" [6][7]. - New fiscal policies, including direct subsidies for childcare and support for personal consumption loans, are designed to alleviate the financial burden on families and stimulate consumer demand [7][8]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools, with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan, is expected to boost infrastructure investment by approximately 2 percentage points this year [8]. Group 3: Future Measures - Experts anticipate that the fiscal policy will implement additional measures to alleviate employment pressure among youth and enhance social security systems [10][11]. - Future fiscal strategies may include providing financial subsidies for consumer spending in areas such as green appliances and education, as well as promoting tourism and elderly care services [11].