Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, indicating a stable monetary policy environment despite previous expectations for a rate cut [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The LPR has remained stable for six consecutive months following a 25 basis point reduction in October 2024, reflecting a strong economic performance in the first quarter [1][4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has kept the 7-day reverse repurchase rate unchanged, which serves as the pricing basis for the LPR, contributing to the stability of the LPR [4]. - Financial indicators show reasonable growth, with social financing increasing by 8.4% year-on-year and RMB loans rising by 7.4%, indicating robust support for the real economy [4]. Group 2: External Influences and Future Expectations - External factors, such as the absence of the U.S. FOMC meeting in April and ongoing tariff impacts, may increase exchange rate pressures, leading to a cautious approach towards total rate cuts [5]. - Analysts expect a potential rate cut in the second quarter, with a possibility of a 30 basis point reduction, as conditions for monetary easing appear to be maturing [5][6]. - The focus on stabilizing the exchange rate may not significantly hinder monetary policy, allowing for potential adjustments in response to economic conditions [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for six consecutive months, indicating a stable monetary policy environment amid external pressures and a favorable domestic economic outlook [2]. Group 1: Loan Market and Interest Rates - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, with no changes from previous rates [2]. - The lack of adjustment in LPR is attributed to stable economic fundamentals and low social financing costs, reducing the urgency for policy rate cuts [2]. - Recent reductions in deposit rates by several banks aim to alleviate costs on the liability side, reflecting a cautious approach to adjusting LPR [2]. Group 2: Economic Policy and Market Conditions - The State Council has emphasized the need for increased counter-cyclical adjustments and support for the real estate market, suggesting a potential for monetary easing in the second quarter [3]. - The issuance of special government bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan and 500 billion yuan for central financial institutions is expected to signal strong fiscal spending in the second quarter [3]. - Analysts predict that if the supply of government bonds increases significantly, the PBOC may need to implement measures such as reverse repos or reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain liquidity [4]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - There is ample room for macroeconomic policy adjustments to address uncertainties in the external environment while ensuring reasonable domestic economic growth [4]. - The potential for coordinated monetary and fiscal policies is highlighted, with expectations that reserve requirement ratio cuts may occur before interest rate reductions [4].

4月21日，人民银行（下称"央行"）授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）。 其中，1年期LPR为3.1%，5年期以上LPR为3.6%，两个品种报价继续保持不变。目前，LPR已连续6个月"按 兵不动"。 LPR是贷款利率定价的主要参考基准。作为LPR定价基础的央行政策利率未做调整，LPR也缺乏调整动力。从 经济基本面看，一季度我国经济运行实现良好开局，且当前社会融资成本已处于历史低位，短期内降低政策利 率、引导LPR下降的紧迫性不强。受外部环境扰动，近期人民币汇率承压，美联储放缓降息节奏也导致中美利 差压力增大，进一步制约降息。 LPR报价加点由报价行共同决定。当前，商业银行净息差水平整体偏低，报价行缺乏调整LPR加点的意愿。4 月以来，多家银行已密集下调存款利率，缓解银行负债端成本。 当前，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，国内结构转型任务仍然较为繁重。随着财政部公布两类特别国债发行安排，释 放在二季度保持较强支出力度的信号，市场专家普遍认为二季度将是货币政策施策窗口期。 4月18日召开的国务院常务会议明确指出，要"加大逆周期调节力度"，"持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展"。 东方金诚首席宏观分析 ...

农业银行董秘刘清在2024年度业绩发布会上分析称，2024年存量房贷利率下调、LPR的调整等因素，让 信贷等资产收益率面临下行压力。 日前陆续公布的上市银行业绩报显示，2024年六大国有银行净息差普遍下降。 展望2025年，国有银行管理层亦普遍认为，净息差还将承压。面对2025年贷款市场报价利率（LPR）可 能再度下调、新发贷款利率持续走低的预期，国有银行已拉开一场资产负债"精细战"，优化资产久期、 加码高收益债券、争夺低成本存款成为破局关键词。 2024年净息差普降探因：LPR调整+债务置换压力 2024年业绩报数据显示，六大国有银行的净息差在2024年普遍较2023年有所下降，其中交通银行的净息 差变化最小，仅下降了0.01个百分点，其他银行的净息差下降幅度在0.14到0.19个百分点之间。 这一变化反映了在当前经济环境下，银行面临的息差压力依然存在，但整体变化趋势较为稳定。 "LPR的变动需平衡实体经济的融资成本、银行盈利能力和宏观风险防控三重目标。近年来存款利率传 导机制不断畅通，政策利率下调后，引导带动LPR跟随调整，降低社会融资成本。商业银行也将根据这 种趋势适时调整存款的挂牌利率，降低负债成本、 ...

3、十年国债期货主力合约刷新史高，已经把周三周四挖的坑都填回去了。注意这个是期货合约，一些现货的etf可能离史高还差几分钱。就像前面说的， 明年预期下调40-50bp，这样的背景下债市的价格很难靠人为打压。说实话债市目前最大的风险来自股市，一旦股市突然暴起狂牛，会有大量抛售债券转 投股市，9月底那一波已经证明了这个逻辑，a股不雄起的话，债牛无人能挡。 我来叻～帮大家把周末的事情捋一下。 1、首先是回溯一下周五，20日，12月份的LPR一如预期，没有任何变化。5年期的维持3.6%，1年期的3.1%。最近甚至有部分地方（比如广州）的银行上 调了房贷利率，从2.x%涨回到了3%，但这并非因为当地房市回暖反弹，而是因为银行的息差太小造成经营压力，被迫又往回调。在这种背景下LPR短期 很难继续下跌，需要一点时间来消化存贷的息差压力。 整个2024年LPR一共下调过3次，分别是2月份下调0.25%，7月份下调0.1%，10月份下调0.25%，另外银行还把前几年上浮比例的部分也取消了，这些在客 观上很大幅度降低了月供的压力。缓解了楼市的压力。 至于明年，我已经讲过好几遍了，大概是下调40-50bp的预期，诸位到时候就喜迎2 ...