Macroeconomic Insights - November inflation data shows CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, meeting expectations, while month-on-month decreased by 0.1%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year. PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected -2%, but increased by 0.1% month-on-month [5][7]. - The IMF projects China's economy to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 [7]. - The bond market continued its recovery, with long-term government bonds showing significant improvement. The main contract for 30-year government bonds rose by 0.3% [7]. Equity Market Analysis - The market exhibited a rebound after a dip, indicating strong support at lower levels. The computing hardware sector was pivotal in driving the index's recovery, and its core stocks will be crucial for future observations [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce's promotion of the "Fat Donglai model" focuses on the lower-tier market, indicating a shift in retail competition towards refined operations, personalized services, and deep digital integration for high-quality development [10]. - Hainan's free trade port's full island closure and its 14th Five-Year Plan mark a new phase of higher-level openness. Short-term investment prospects include consumer return and policy benefits, while medium-term focuses on modern service industries and unique industrial clusters [10].

【财经要闻】 1、据新华社，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰12月9日晚在京会见世界贸易组织总干事伊维 拉。何立峰表示，中方坚定支持以世界贸易组织为核心的多边贸易体制，反对单边主义、保护主义。中 国将积极参与世界贸易组织改革，持续推动贸易和投资自由化便利化，与各方一道维护开放、稳定、可 预期的国际贸易环境。 2、据智通财经，12月10日，财政部官网公布《关于2025年到期续作特别国债（一期和二期）发行工作 有关事宜的通知》（《通知》）。《通知》明确，财政部拟发行2025年到期续作特别国债（一期）、 （二期）（以下分别称第一期、第二期，统称两期国债），发行日期为2025年12月12日，其中，第一期 为10年期固定利率附息债，第二期为15年期固定利率附息债，第一期发行面值4000亿元，第二期发行面 值3500亿元。"2025年到期续作的7500亿元特别国债将在全国银行间债券市场面向有关银行定向发行， 期限品种包括10年期4000亿元、15年期3500亿元。"财政部有关负责人表示，发行过程不涉及社会投资 者，个人投资者不能购买。2025年到期续作特别国债是原特别国债的等额滚动发行，仍与原有资产负债 相对应，不 ...

关于2025年到期续作特别国债（一期和二期） 发行工作有关事宜的通知 财债〔2025〕10号 中央国债登记结算有限责任公司、中国证券登记结算有限责任公司、中国外汇交易中心、上海证券交易 所、深圳证券交易所、有关银行： 财政部拟发行2025年到期续作特别国债（一期）、（二期）（以下分别称第一期、第二期，统称两期国 债）。现就本次发行工作有关事宜通知如下： 收款人名称：中华人民共和国财政部 （一）发行日期。2025年12月12日。 （二）发行方式。面向境内有关银行定向发行，中国人民银行将面向有关银行开展公开市场操作。 三、发行款缴纳 有关银行于2025年12月12日将发行款缴入财政部指定账户。 一、债券要素 （一）品种。第一期为10年期固定利率附息债，第二期为15年期固定利率附息债。 （二）发行数量。第一期发行面值4000亿元，第二期发行面值3500亿元。 （三）票面利率。两期国债票面利率均为发行日前一至五个工作日（含第一和第五个工作日）中国国债 收益率曲线中，同期限国债收益率算术平均值（四舍五入计算到0.01%）。 （四）本息兑付日期。两期国债均于2025年12月12日开始计息，每半年支付一次利息，付息日为每年 ...

人民财讯12月10日电，财政部拟发行2025年到期续作特别国债(一期)、(二期)(以下分别称第一期、第二 期，统称两期国债)。第一期为10年期固定利率附息债，第二期为15年期固定利率附息债。第一期发行 面值4000亿元，第二期发行面值3500亿元。两期国债票面利率均为发行日前一至五个工作日(含第一和 第五个工作日)中国国债收益率曲线中，同期限国债收益率算术平均值(四舍五入计算到0.01%)。两期国 债均于2025年12月12日开始计息，每半年支付一次利息，付息日为每年6月12日(节假日顺延，下同)和 12月12日；第一期于2035年12月12日偿还本金并支付最后一次利息，第二期于2040年12月12日偿还本金 并支付最后一次利息。发行日期为2025年12月12日。 ...

"随着新增国债发行所带来的影响逐步减弱，地方债尤其是新增专项债的发行有望在二季度提速。"中国 首席经济学家论坛理事长连平表示，截至4月下旬，各地已披露二季度计划发行的地方债规模超过2.2万 亿元，其中专项债计划发行1.2万亿元。 5月7日，福建省在中央国债登记结算有限公司再发行新增政府专项债券200亿元。按照"资金跟着项目 走"的原则，本批债券将全部用于在建项目，确保尽快形成实物工作量，更好发挥对扩投资、稳增长的 积极作用。 中国证券报记者梳理发现，5月以来，新增专项债发行节奏加快。专家认为，在2024年地方政府专项债 券项目筛选工作完成基础上，后续新增专项债发行使用进度将提速，1万亿元超长期特别国债也将适时 启动发行，形成资金滚动接续局面，以支持基建投资平稳增长，尽早形成实物工作量。 专项债发行加快 除福建外，5月6日至10日，广东、山东、吉林等地已发行或将发行新增专项债规模合计921.27亿元，超 过4月的发行规模。 前期，受增发国债资金在一季度使用等因素影响，新增专项债发行进度偏慢。近日，国家发展改革委联 合财政部完成2024年地方政府专项债券项目的筛选工作，共筛选通过专项债券项目约3.8万个、2024 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance of China issued new government bonds today, specifically a 50-year special bond [1] - The weighted average winning bid rate for the newly issued long-term bond is 2.1% [1] - This winning bid rate has increased by approximately 19 basis points compared to the record low set during the issuance of the same maturity bond in February [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue a second tranche of the 2025 ultra-long special government bonds, which will be a 30-year fixed-rate bond [1] - The total amount for competitive bidding is set at 71 billion yuan, with no additional bidding from Class A members [1] - The coupon rate for this issuance is the same as the previously issued bonds of the same maturity, which is 1.88% [1] - The bidding time is scheduled for May 21, 2025, from 10:35 AM to 11:35 AM [1]

考虑到二季度经济运行可能受到外部冲击影响，市场对于央行在二季度"择机降准降息"的预期持续升 温。随着财政部明确将于4月24日启动1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元中央金融机构注资特别国债 发行工作，释放在二季度保持较强支出力度的信号后，市场专家认为未来降准或早于降息落地。 ...

4月21日，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新一期贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）。 其中，1年期LPR为3.1%，5年期以上LPR为3.6%，两个品种报价继续保持不变。目前，LPR已连续6个 月"按兵不动"。 LPR是贷款利率定价的主要参考基准。作为LPR定价基础的央行政策利率未做调整，LPR也缺乏调整动 力。从经济基本面看，一季度我国经济运行实现良好开局，且当前社会融资成本已处于历史低位，短期内 降低政策利率、引导LPR下降的紧迫性不强。受外部环境扰动，近期人民币汇率承压，美联储放缓降息节 奏也导致中美利差压力增大，进一步制约降息。 LPR报价加点由报价行共同决定。当前，商业银行净息差水平整体偏低,报价行缺乏调整LPR加点的意愿。 4月以来，多家银行已密集下调存款利率，缓解银行负债端成本。 当前，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，国内结构转型任务仍然较为繁重。随着财政部公布两类特别国债发行安 排，释放在二季度保持较强支出力度的信号，市场专家普遍认为二季度将是货币政策施策窗口期。 4月18日召开的国务院常务会议明确指出，要"加大逆周期调节力度"，"持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发 展"。东方金诚首席宏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Q2 2025 national debt issuance plan is unusual, with multiple - maturity ordinary national debts breaking the regular issuance pattern, likely to make way for special national debts. We can infer the issuance method and rhythm of special national debts from these irregular arrangements [8]. Summary by Catalog 1. Issuance Method of Capital - Injection Special National Debts: Higher Probability of Public Issuance - **Clue 1: Limited Single - Issue Scale of Capital - Injection Special National Debts, Low Necessity for Directed Issuance** - Historically, the issuance methods of special national debts have evolved from "directed issuance" in 1998 to "directed issuance + public issuance" in 2007 and then to "public issuance" since 2020. Since 2020, only the roll - over of some large - scale special national debts at maturity has used the directed method, while new special national debts have all been publicly issued [10]. - The current "directed capital injection" by the Ministry of Finance into the four major banks refers to directed stock subscription, not "directed issuance" at the bond issuance end. The first - batch special national debt scale is 50 billion yuan, with the Ministry of Finance injecting capital into four banks through stock subscription. If publicly issued, the single - issue scale of 12.5 billion yuan is less than the current 17 - billion - yuan scale of key - maturity national debts, and the pressure on institutional underwriting is not large. Also, since mid - March, the issuance price of large - state - owned and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit has declined, indicating reduced pressure on large banks' liability ends [11][13]. - **Clue 2: The Ministry of Finance Mentions Promoting Capital Supplement Work According to the "Market - Oriented" Principle** - Since 2020, the issuance of special national debts has often mentioned using the "market - oriented method". In 2025, the Ministry of Finance also emphasized the "market - oriented" principle for the current capital - injection special national debts, so they are likely to be publicly issued [16]. - **Clue 3: 5 - 7y Key - Maturity Ordinary National Debts "Make Way" for Corresponding - Maturity Capital - Injection Special National Debts** - The irregular arrangement of 5 - 7y ordinary national debts in Q2 shows an obvious feature of "making way" for 5 - 7y capital - injection special national debts. When 4 additional 5 - 7y capital - injection special national debts are issued, 4 issues of 5 - 7y ordinary national debts are reduced, and the time points can be corresponding. If it were a directed issuance, this arrangement would be unnecessary [19]. 2. When Will the Ultra - Long - Term Special National Debts Be Issued: Higher Probability in May - **Clue 1: The Ministry of Finance Mentions that the Issuance Arrangement of Ultra - Long - Term Special National Debts Will Be Announced Separately, with a High Probability of Issuance in Q2** - Similar to 2024, the Q2 2025 national debt issuance plan also mentions that the issuance arrangement of ultra - long - term special national debts will be announced separately, which may indicate an upcoming issuance in Q2. In 2024, the ultra - long - term special national debts started to be issued in May [20]. - **Clue 2: The Issuance of Ultra - Long - Term Ordinary National Debts Will Be Suspended from May, Likely to Make Way for the Issuance of Ultra - Long - Term Special National Debts** - In 2024, the ultra - long - term ordinary national debts clearly made way for ultra - long - term special national debts. The issuance of ultra - long - term ordinary national debts was suspended when the ultra - long - term special national debts started to be issued in May 2024 and resumed in December 2024 after the special national debts were fully issued. In the Q2 2025 national debt issuance plan, the issuance of 30y and 50y ultra - long - term ordinary national debts will be suspended from May, which may be a signal for the start of ultra - long - term special national debt issuance [22][23]. 3. Outlook on the Subsequent Supply Rhythm of Government Bonds - **National Debts** - In Q2, the net financing may be 1.9 trillion yuan, including 1.1 trillion yuan of ordinary national debts and 800 billion yuan of special national debts. Due to the maturity pressure in April, the net financing is 120 billion yuan, and it may rise to 700 billion yuan and 1 trillion yuan in May and June respectively. In the third and fourth quarters, the net financing of national debts will be 2.3 trillion yuan and 1 trillion yuan respectively [2][24]. - **Local Debts** - In Q2, the net financing may be 1.8 trillion yuan, with new special bonds being 1.3 trillion yuan. The net financing in the third and fourth quarters may be 2 trillion yuan and 700 billion yuan respectively. In Q2, referring to the local debt issuance plan, the net financing in April - May is around 700 billion yuan, and it will decline to 470 billion yuan in June. In the second half of the year, referring to historical issuance progress, the peak of local debt net financing may be in August, with single - month net financing approaching 1 trillion yuan [27]. - **Government Bonds** - Pay attention to the supply pressure from May to June and from August to September. In Q2, the net financing is 3.7 trillion yuan, with less pressure in April and rising to 1.4 - 1.5 trillion yuan in May - June. In the third quarter, the net financing may reach 4.3 trillion yuan, and the supply pressure from August to September may be relatively large, with single - month net financing ranging from 1.4 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan. In the fourth quarter, government bond issuance may enter a slack season, with net financing dropping to 1.7 trillion yuan [3].