法国总统马克龙与美国总统特朗普在加拿大讨论关税、中东局势等问题。 ...

Group 1 - The Israeli Defense Forces reported that alarms sounded in the southern Golan region following the infiltration of an aircraft [1]

据伊朗国家媒体：伊朗革命卫队呼吁特拉维夫居民尽快撤离。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 ...

金十数据6月16日讯，中东和欧洲的官员说，伊朗一直在紧急发出信号，表示它寻求结束敌对状态，恢 复有关其核项目的谈判，并通过阿拉伯中间人向以色列和美国发出了信息。这些官员说，在以色列猛烈 的空袭中，德黑兰对阿拉伯官员说，只要美国不加入空袭，他们愿意重返谈判桌。他们还向以色列传递 了信息，称控制暴力符合双方的利益。但是，由于以色列的战机能够自由飞越伊朗首都，而伊朗的反击 造成的损失又微乎其微，以色列领导人在采取更多行动摧毁伊朗的核设施、进一步削弱伊朗"神权政 府"对权力的控制之前，它没有什么动力停止攻击。 （华尔街日报） 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 美媒："遭受重创"的伊朗希望与以色列缓和敌对关系 ...

金十数据6月16日讯，一位地区外交官表示，伊朗告诉阿曼和卡塔尔，在伊朗城市继续受到以色列的攻 击之际，以及直到德黑兰的回应完成之前，它不会与美国进行谈判。这位外交官表示，媒体报道称伊朗 要求阿曼和卡塔尔与美国进行斡旋，以确保与以色列停火并重启核谈判，这是"不准确的"。 （CNN） 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 伊朗在完成对以色列的报复之前，不会与美国谈判 ...

Report Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Core Viewpoints - US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation push up US soybean prices, increasing import costs. In China, ample soybean supply and high - level oil mill operations lead to rising bean - meal inventory. With the increase in import costs, bean - meal spot prices stabilize, and market trading volume drops significantly. In the short term, the bean - meal market is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation situation with a likely oscillatory trend [17] - For the pig market, the supply side has a normal slaughter rhythm and decreasing average slaughter weight, with increasing medium - term supply pressure. The demand side is in a seasonal off - peak, with weak consumption unable to support prices. Although the pig futures price rebounds in the short term due to policies and feed price hikes, weak demand restricts the spot price increase, and the basis weakens rapidly, potentially limiting the upside of the futures market. Pig prices are expected to oscillate [17] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - DCE bean - meal main contract 2509 rose 0.13% to 3045 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. Coastal oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. DCE pig main contract 2509 fell 0.07% to 13780 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 2.44% to 1069 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - On June 13, in the US Midwest agricultural main production areas, the western region will have scattered to widespread scattered showers until Sunday. Before Saturday, the southern region's temperature is near to above normal, and the northern region's temperature is below normal, then above normal from Sunday to Monday. The eastern region will have scattered showers until Sunday and scattered to widespread scattered showers on Monday. Before Saturday, the temperature is near to above normal, near normal on Sunday, and near to above normal on Monday. Rainfall in the southern part of the US Midwest has decreased since the middle of this week [4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From June 7 to 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%, 28,600 tons lower than expected [5] - On June 16, the import cost of US soybeans was 4603 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3812 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan/ton; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3669 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [5] - On June 13, the total bean - meal sales of major oil mills in China were 97,300 tons, a decrease of 570,600 tons from the previous day. Spot sales were 69,300 tons, an increase of 4400 tons, and far - month basis sales were 28,000 tons, a decrease of 575,000 tons. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 64.82%, a decrease of 1.34% from the previous day [5] - As of June 12, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina in the 2024/25 season was 95%, up from 91% the previous week and lower than 97% in the same period last year [5] - As of the week of June 11, the rapeseed planting rate in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 99.73%, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week [6] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs decreased. On June 12, the average weight of slaughtered pigs was 125.76 kg/head, a decrease of 0.24 kg/head from the previous week. Farmers' bearish expectations led to active weight - loss slaughter, and the proportion of standard pigs purchased by slaughterhouses increased [6] - On June 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 120 yuan/head, a decrease of 23 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was 127 yuan/head, a decrease of 9 yuan/head. Due to weak demand and increased supply, both types of profits decreased [6] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year, 1.3 percentage points faster than the previous month. From January to May, service retail sales increased by 5.2%, 0.1 percentage point faster than from January to April [6] - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The unemployment rate of the main employment population remained stable, and the youth unemployment rate decreased for three consecutive months [7] - In May, China's new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, and new RMB deposits were nearly 2.18 trillion yuan. At the end of May, M2 increased by 7.9% year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [7] 4. Data Charts - The report includes charts of bean - meal, rapeseed - meal, and pig prices, as well as their basis and inventory data [10][12][14][15] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For bean - meal, short - term trends are oscillatory due to the combination of high domestic supply and increasing import costs [17] - For pigs, prices are expected to oscillate due to the contradiction between supply pressure and weak demand [17]

Group 1: U.S. Military Movements - The U.S. has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East, with the "Nimitz" aircraft carrier heading to the Malacca Strait and dozens of refueling aircraft deployed from the U.S. mainland towards Europe [2][6] - At least 30 U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft have been reported crossing the Atlantic Ocean, marking an unprecedented scale of deployment [3][8] - The "Nimitz" carrier strike group has diverted from the South China Sea and is expected to join the "Carl Vinson" carrier in the Arabian Sea to support Israel [7] Group 2: Iran-Russia Relations - Russia has begun evacuating its citizens from Iran due to the escalating conflict, with 238 individuals successfully evacuated through land routes [10][11] - The Russian embassy in Iran has suspended consular services amid the ongoing military actions, and the Russian government has advised against travel to Iran and Israel [15][13] Group 3: Ongoing Israel-Iran Conflict - The conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, with Iran launching new missile attacks on Israel, resulting in casualties [22][23] - Israel has conducted multiple military operations against Iranian targets, claiming to have intercepted numerous missile and drone attacks from Iran [24][25] - Both Iranian and Israeli leaders have issued warnings regarding the potential for further military escalation, with Iran stating it will respond decisively to any aggression [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military facilities have disrupted the fragile balance in the Middle East, leading to significant fluctuations in global oil prices, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 14% and Brent crude oil over 13% in response to the events [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Market - The Middle East is a critical region for global energy, with the EIA reporting that by February 2025, the region's daily crude oil production will exceed 28.4 million barrels, accounting for 34.5% of global output [1]. - Saudi Arabia ranks third globally in oil production at 9.07 million barrels per day, representing 11% of the world's total [1]. - Iraq and Iran follow, with production levels of 4.33 million barrels per day (5.3% of global output) and 4.27 million barrels per day (5.2% of global output), respectively [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Reactions - Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has declared that Israel's actions will face "severe punishment" and has put the country on high alert for potential retaliation [2]. - Market reactions indicate that Iran's response has been less aggressive than expected, with oil prices retracting to around 6% gains after the initial spike [2]. - Analysts suggest that the Israeli strikes serve more as a strategic deterrent rather than the onset of a full-scale war, although any escalation involving direct attacks on oil infrastructure could significantly impact oil supply [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the I2509 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The Middle - East situation is tense as on June 14, two refineries in Iran's southern Bushehr province were attacked by Israel, the first direct strike on Iran's energy infrastructure by Israel. The supply and demand situation shows that the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore have declined this period, while domestic port inventories have increased. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and the daily average hot metal output have continued to decline, weakening the support for iron ore demand. However, the tense Middle - East situation makes the market worry that Iran's iron ore production may be affected, which supports the short - term market. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to conduct intraday short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 704.50 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the position volume is 685,492 hands, down 10,148 hands. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 29.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 37,842 hands, down 7,590 hands. The DCE warehouse receipt is 2,700 hands, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 is 94.2 dollars/ton, up 0.04 dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 782 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 761 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 677 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 56 yuan, unchanged. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 94.60 dollars/ton, down 0.35 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.56, down 0.02. The estimated import cost is 782 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is 3,352.70 million tons, down 157.70 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,517.50 million tons, down 156.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports is 13,933.14 million tons, up 106.45 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,798.68 million tons, up 108.50 million tons [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of iron ore is 9,813.10 million tons, down 500.90 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 38.98 million tons, up 0.50 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 61.42%, up 0.23%. The inventory of iron concentrate in 266 mines is 58.33 million tons, down 4.46 million tons. The BDI index is 1,968.00, up 64.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 26.26 dollars/ton, up 1.45 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.97 dollars/ton, up 1.26 dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.39%, down 0.15%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.56%, down 0.07%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.38%, down 0.36%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.96%, down 0.16%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.33%, up 1.46%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, down 0.51% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From June 9 to June 15, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,352.7 million tons, down 157.7 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,842.1 million tons, with Australia's shipment volume of 2,059.3 million tons, down 110.6 million tons (1,797.1 million tons to China, down 94.9 million tons) and Brazil's shipment volume of 782.8 million tons, up 33.2 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,517.5 million tons, down 156.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,384.5 million tons, down 224.8 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,219.0 million tons, down 164.6 million tons [2].

订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 伊朗外交部发言人：伊朗遭美制武器袭击 金十数据6月16日讯，伊朗外交部发言人强调美国与以色列政权合谋袭击伊朗，称犹太政权已使用美国 武器实施侵略行为。在周一的例行新闻发布会上，伊朗外交部发言人称，犹太复国主义政权使用美国提 供的各种武器袭击了伊朗，这使德黑兰和华盛顿之间的谈判进程变得毫无意义。他强调作为联合国安理 会成员的美国，需要承认对伊朗实施了侵略行为。 ...