在累计降息超过1个百分点后，美联储官员如今正在纠结降息该何时止步，并且发现分歧达到了前所未 有的程度。 过去一年左右，关于利率最终应降至何种水平的看法，美联储官员们的分歧达到了至少2012年以来的最 高水平（2012年美联储官员开始公布相关估算）。这一分歧导致了一场异常公开的争论：下周是否应再 次降息，以及后续政策该如何推进。 美联储主席鲍威尔承认，利率制定委员会内部对两大政策目标（物价稳定与充分就业）的优先级存 在"强烈分歧"。核心问题在于：政策制定者是否应该为经济再添一把力以支撑就业市场，还是应该踩下 刹车——因为通胀仍高于目标，且关税可能进一步推高通胀。 近期美联储官员的言论也印证了这一点。费城联储主席安娜·保尔森（Anna Paulson）11月20日解释称， 通胀上升与失业风险并存，且利率可能已接近中性水平，这让她在12月会议前持谨慎态度。 "在货币政策方面必须谨慎行事，"她说，"每一次降息都会让我们更接近一个临界点——政策将从轻微 抑制经济活动，转向开始刺激经济。" 中性利率也被称为"r*"（r-star）——源于模型中代表它的数学符号，或自然利率（natural rate）。它无 法直接观测，只 ...

日本央行审议委员野口旭：几乎无法精准确定中性利率。核心通胀能否持续稳步迈向2%目标，完全取 决于工资上涨的动能能否持续，并向中小企业和地方经济扩散。如果经济活动和物价的发展与央行的预 期相符，央行将逐步调整货币宽松程度。要使通胀保持足够的可持续性和稳定性，需要的是需求的稳定 扩张以及伴随而来的名义工资的持续增长。 ...

You say we're on hold, but does that also include December. Because that's not what Stuart Pohl just told us. He thought maybe making for a smooth transition to the next Fed chair would call for maybe a cut.Absolutely. And good morning. No high conviction here that they go ahead and December.I thought the whole hawkish narrative from the Fed a week or two ago was a little bit silly given the situation that we're witnessing in the labour market figures, whilst they argue that they're kind of flying blind abo ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the official cash rate (OCR) down to 2.25%, in response to rising inflation and a weak labor market [1][3]. Monetary Policy - The RBNZ's decision to lower the OCR is influenced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 3% in Q3, which is at the upper limit of the official target range of 1%-3% [1]. - The RBNZ expects inflation to decline to around 2% by mid-2026, indicating a long-term outlook on inflation management [1]. - Since August 2024, the RBNZ has cut rates eight times, totaling a reduction of 300 basis points, which is significantly higher than the 150 basis points cut by the Federal Reserve [5]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains weak, with a rising unemployment rate that reached 5.3% in Q3, surpassing the 5% threshold for full employment [3]. - The RBNZ's rationale for the rate cut mirrors that of the Federal Reserve, focusing on the challenges within the labor market [3]. Interest Rate Context - The current cash rate of 2.25% is close to the neutral rate estimates of the Federal Reserve (2.5%-3.0%) and the European Central Bank (1.75%-2.25%), suggesting limited room for further significant rate adjustments [5]. - The RBNZ has not explicitly defined its neutral rate range, but the current rate is seen as supportive and stimulative for the economy [5]. Technical Analysis - The NZD/USD currency pair is in a medium-term bearish trend, with significant support levels identified around 0.5500, which has historically been a rebound point [7]. - The current market price of 0.5675 is close to this long-term support level, indicating potential for a significant rebound [7].

文/冉学东 米兰主张通过一系列50个基点的降息，尽快将利率降至中性水平。他明确指出失业率攀升是货币政策过 紧的直接结果。 金融市场不在于实体经济到底如何，而是人们认为将会如何，就是预期会如何。预期决定市场走势。 美国最新公布的数据显示出，通胀预期还是比较混沌。美国9月批发商品价格环比上涨0.9%，其中60% 的涨幅归因于汽油成本上升。剔除食品和能源价格后，PPI同比上涨2.6%，为 2024 年7月以来最温和的 涨幅。 但是最新出台的美国9月零售销售表现不及预期，环比增幅收窄至0.2%，不仅低于0.4%的市场预期，也 较8月0.6%的增速明显放缓。更值得关注的是，美国9月零售销售（除汽车与汽油）环比增0.1%，远低 于预期增长0.3%的水平，显示消费者支出动能正在减弱。 尽管经通胀调整后的实际零售额已实现连续12个月同比增长，显示消费需求仍具韧性，但核心零售销售 （剔除汽车、汽油等类别）环比增0.1%，且未经季节调整的数据显示零售销售出现显著下滑，表明内 生消费动能正在减弱。 正是在以上数据基础上，11月25日，美联储理事米兰在接受媒体采访时表示，美国经济需要大幅降息， 现行货币政策"阻碍了经济发展"，并将失 ...

Market Overview - US stock market showed a mixed performance with the Dow Jones increasing by 664.18 points (1.43%) to close at 47112.45, while the Nasdaq rose by 153.59 points (0.67%) to 23025.59, and the S&P 500 gained 60.76 points (0.91%) to finish at 6765.88 [1] - European stock indices also saw gains, with Germany's DAX30 up by 213.90 points (0.92%) to 23467.00, the UK's FTSE 100 rising by 78.49 points (0.82%) to 9613.40, and France's CAC40 increasing by 66.13 points (0.83%) to 8025.80 [2] Commodity Prices - Crude oil prices fell, with NY light crude for January delivery down by $0.89 to $57.95 per barrel (1.51% drop), and Brent crude for January delivery also down by $0.89 to $62.48 per barrel (1.4% drop) [2] - Gold prices slightly decreased by 0.08% to $4130.78 [4] Economic Indicators - US retail sales for September grew by 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, following a revised growth of 0.6% in August. Core retail sales, excluding autos, gas, building materials, and food services, fell by 0.1% [5] - The US consumer confidence index dropped by 6.8 points to 88.7, marking the largest decline in seven months, attributed to concerns over the labor market and economic conditions [6] Company News - Dell Technologies (DELL.US) provided an optimistic outlook for Q4, driven by strong AI server sales, projecting AI server revenue for FY2026 to reach $25 billion, up from a previous estimate of $20 billion. Overall revenue expectations for FY2026 were raised to between $111.2 billion and $112.2 billion [8] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) asserted its GPU technology remains a generation ahead of Google's AI chips, despite a 3% drop in its stock price amid concerns over competition from Google [9] - Walmart (WMT.US) is testing advertising features in its AI shopping assistant, Sparky, aiming to commercialize the chat experience and maintain its retail dominance [10] Regulatory Developments - The FDIC has moved to relax capital requirements for major US banks, which is expected to benefit institutions like Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs, as they navigate regulatory pressures stemming from the 2008 financial crisis [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing significant internal divisions regarding potential interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell's decision-making power becoming more concentrated as disagreements among committee members reach unprecedented levels [2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Powell may consider two options to address the divisions: one is to lower interest rates as the market expects, signaling a higher threshold for future cuts; the other is to maintain current rates and reassess in January, which could prolong public disagreements [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates twice this year, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4%, with a potential third cut in December aligning with Powell's plan to approach neutral rates [4][5]. - Recent comments from key allies of Powell indicate support for further rate adjustments, with market expectations for a December cut rising significantly [5][6]. Group 2: Internal Divisions and Concerns - The current divisions reflect deeper economic contradictions, with stagnant job growth and persistent inflation, indicating a potential "stagflation" scenario [3][4]. - Several voting members have expressed concerns about the pace of rate cuts, fearing that inflation pressures may be escalating, particularly in service prices, suggesting a need for more restrictive policies [6][7]. - The shift in stance from previously supportive members, such as Boston Fed President Collins, highlights the growing hesitance regarding further rate cuts amid stable demand and slightly favorable financial conditions [6][7].

Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations[4] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% in September[4] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%[4] Group 2: Wage Growth and Job Quality - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month in September, down from 0.4% in August[4] - The quality of non-farm data is questioned, as the response rate for the survey was 80.2%, significantly above historical averages, indicating higher reliability[4][18] Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a December rate cut fluctuated, with probabilities rising to nearly 70% following dovish comments from Fed officials[6][8] - The FOMC's internal division on rate cuts shows a support-to-opposition ratio of approximately 4:5[7] Group 4: Broader Economic Indicators - High-frequency ADP data showed weakness in October, while initial jobless claims remained stable, suggesting mixed signals in the labor market[5][26] - The U.S. government announced a trade framework to lower food tariffs, while Japan proposed a fiscal stimulus plan worth 21.3 trillion yen[8]

宏观经济点评 滞后的非农数据或增加美联储 12 月降息不确定性 宏观研究团队 ——美国 9 月非农就业数据点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 9 月非农就业数据。新增非农就业 11.9 万，失业率为 4.4%，平 均时薪同比增长 3.8%，均高于市场预期。 新增非农就业与失业率同时上行， 8 月数据再度下修为负 1. 新增非农就业超预期上行，但 8 月新增就业再度下修为负 9 月美国新增非农就业 11.9 万人，较 8 月份初值（2.2 万）提升较多，且大幅高 于市场预期的 5.1 万。7-8 月新增非农就业累计下修 3.3 万，且 8 月份新增非农 在修订后转负，与 6 月数据一致，较为罕见。趋势上看，近 3 个月平均新增就 业 6.2 万人，较 7-8 月有一定程度提升。9 月非农就业数据的较大幅上行，与 8 月数据差别较大，显示美国劳动力市场的波动有所放大。考虑到本次数据 ...

美联储哈马克：我们现在的利率差不多处于中性水平。 来源：滚动播报 ...