Aptus Capital：鲍威尔将重申不急于降息，强调美联储的独立性 金十数据5月7日讯，Aptus Capital Advisors分析师约翰•卢克•泰纳表示，预计美联储主席鲍威尔将继续 维持此前基调，他可能会强调政策制定者需要看到更多数据，并不急于降息。泰纳表示，鉴于通胀仍高 于目标，经济看起来还不错，鲍威尔不会"在未来降息方面过于积极主动"。泰纳渴望听到有关关税的评 论，尤其是关税对价格的潜在影响。他说，在特朗普政府最近发表各种言论之后，鲍威尔可能会强调美 联储的独立性。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut short-term interest rates due to pressure from President Trump, which could damage its reputation and investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain short-term interest rates in the upcoming meetings, with potential cuts not anticipated until July, possibly by only 25 basis points [1] - Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and his potential appointment of Powell's successor are causing investor anxiety, leading to a sell-off of bonds by foreign investors [3] Group 2 - Inflation expectations are declining, with the five-year breakeven inflation rate dropping to 2.33%, down from over 2.6% in February [2] - Economic uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff measures has led to a significant downgrade in the Atlanta Fed's second-quarter growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.1% [3] - The current yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is approximately 4.33%, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at 6.76%, higher than last summer [3]

据金融界报道，皇家伦敦资产高级经济学家梅勒妮·贝克在研究报告中表示，仍预计美联储将于2025年实施两次降息，但降息时间不会早于下半年。她指 出："我们预计美联储会等到下半年再开启降息。"届时经济将出现更明确的放缓迹象。当前衰退风险已有所上升，全球及美国国内增长前景已然恶化。不 过，鉴于互征关税的暂停以及美国总统特朗普对市场压力作出回应的迹象，贝克目前仍属于"经济放缓"阵营，而非"经济衰退"阵营。 4月26日，策略师表示，目前市场想法与该行基本预测一致，即在今年余下时间内，关税将从目前公布的水平降低，而美联储将在今年进一步降息。然而， 由于贸易、经济及美联储政策的不确定性仍然高企，预期波动性也维持高企。不过，瑞银认为美国股市具有吸引力，目标年底续看5800点。瑞银目前的基本 预测是美联储今年将降息75至100个基点，但短期内，美联储的政策弹性似乎更加有限，因其必须在经济增长担忧与通胀复苏风险之间取得平衡。 美国康奈尔大学经济史学家尼古拉斯·穆尔德认为，相比于2017年特朗普首次挑起关税争端，中方此次准备更加充分，如今中方的承受力更强，也更有能力 应对这种升级的贸易战。商务部24日在回应美方"关税降温"说法时表示 ...

Group 1 - Trump criticized former President Biden's economic policies and rising egg prices during his first major speech outside Washington since taking office [1] - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, reiterating his call for interest rate cuts, despite Powell's insistence on the Fed's independence [3][5] - Wall Street warned that any attempt by Trump to replace Powell could lead to significant market turmoil, undermining trust in the Fed's decisions and potentially causing a drop in the dollar and a rise in yields [1][3] Group 2 - Trump's administration is reportedly considering candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, with Treasury Secretary Yellen indicating that interviews may begin in the fall [3] - The Fed's independence is legally protected, and Powell emphasized that government interference could lead to higher inflation and worse economic growth [3] - Trump's approach to economic policy appears to prioritize short-term political gains over sustainable economic growth, raising concerns among financial experts [5][6]

Group 1 - Concerns about the dollar's loss of safe-haven appeal are increasing among forex strategists, with predictions of further declines in the global reserve currency over the next year amid rising recession fears [1] - Since Trump's return to the White House, the dollar has fallen nearly 9% against a basket of major currencies, with investor sentiment negatively impacted by his inconsistent tariff policies [1] - A survey of 83 respondents revealed that over 55% expressed concerns about the dollar's safe-haven status, a significant increase from about one-third in the previous survey [1] Group 2 - Nearly 80% of strategists expect little change in the net short positions of the dollar in the CFTC by the end of May, indicating some potential for a dollar rebound [2] - The median forecast suggests the euro will rise to 1.14 against the dollar in six months and 1.16 in twelve months, marking the largest monthly adjustment since November 2010 [2] - Despite expectations of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, decision-makers have indicated they are not in a hurry to lower rates [2] Group 3 - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve could severely undermine the dollar's safe-haven status, with alternative currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting from the current situation [3] - The yen and Swiss franc have both risen nearly 10% this year, with economists predicting further increases of 2.8% and 0.4% respectively over the next twelve months [3]

美国哪些部门是"深层政府"？美联储，无疑首当其冲。特朗普原先的计划，是一边对他国加关税，一边说服美联储降息，这样对美国 国内经济的冲击会小一些。但现任美联储主席鲍威尔，硬挺着不降息，还在特朗普背后"捅刀"，说美国加征的关税，不像特朗普说的 那样是外国政府在承担，而是美国人民。特朗普闻言暴怒，威胁要解雇鲍威尔，但他这话才放出来24小时，又主动澄清，没有解雇鲍 威尔的想法。 据每日经济新闻报道，特朗普对美联储的独立性发起挑战，多次暗示可能将现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔免职。太和智库高级研究 员、中国现代国际关系研究院前副院长王在邦向《每日经济新闻》记者（简称每经记者）表示，特朗普宣称罢免鲍威尔，迅速向市场 传递一个美元要"完蛋"的信号，引起金融市场恐慌。美联储丧失独立性是推倒美元霸权的第一张多米诺骨牌，相当于投向美元信用的 一枚核弹。 近日有彭博社消息称，特朗普正在尝试通过对美国盟友施压，以达成对中国新能源领域的打压，减缓中国制造的扩张，最终将中国挤 出全球新能源的供应链。不出所料，特朗普手中的底牌还是关税威胁，他宣称，那些不顺从美国的国家，将会遭受美国的"二级关 税"。不得不说，这一招对于美国的贸易伙伴来说真是 ...

市场今日普涨吸引了众多目光，可鲜有人留意美联储的重磅消息。这一新动态会否成为市场的关键转折 点？下文将展开详细解读。特别提醒大家，文章结尾部分提炼了核心观点，建议重点研读、深刻记忆。 一，紧急向世界传声 美联储利率决议前夕，素有 "新美联储通讯社" 之称的媒体发声表态。 该文章在美联储会议召开前一日发布，释放的信号不容乐观。此前，华尔街众多投行已将美联储 6 月降 息预期延后至 7 月。 文章核心观点明确：当前并非降息的合适时机。 这一表态既是面向市场，也是对川普的回应。美联储试图借此彰显独立性，同时又不得不正视贸易正策 对通胀走势的关键作用，这与川普施压美联储降息的当下局势形成呼应。 换个角度思考，当下美元正处于下行周期，这使得汇率波动压力显著缓解。在美联储维持利率不变的情 况下，我国货币政策保持稳健，反而为人民币资产跨境回流创造有利条件，因此无需过度担忧市场变 化。 精明的投资者往往能够敏锐捕捉这一趋势，提前布局市场。值得关注的是，当前市场上涨的关键在于是 否有新增资金入场。然而，判断增量资金的动向并非易事，许多投资者习惯在股价上涨后才确认资金流 入，却难以在上涨初期做出准确判断。特别是在股价剧烈波动的情 ...

Group 1 - Trump's recent statements regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have sparked significant debate, highlighting the complex political and economic dynamics at play [1][3] - The ongoing tension between Trump and Powell is exacerbated by Trump's criticism of Powell's cautious monetary policy, which contrasts with Trump's desire for interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy [3] - Trump's remarks have led to market anxiety, with concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for political interference in monetary policy [3] Group 2 - Trump defended several controversial policies during the interview, including the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, while expressing frustration with judicial rulings that require due process [4] - Trump's belief in the effectiveness of his tariff policies is evident, as he claims that companies are gradually relocating production facilities back to the U.S., despite the negative impact on domestic businesses and consumers [4] - The discussion around Trump's potential third term candidacy has evolved, with him indicating a preference to pass the presidency to capable Republican successors after his current term [4]

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio's visit to Vietnam and the Philippines aims to strengthen security cooperation amid concerns over China's maritime activities and U.S. tariff policies [1] - The visit is seen as a move to enhance Japan's military and political influence in Southeast Asia, particularly in the context of U.S. military deployments in the region [1] - Japan is deepening defense cooperation with Vietnam and the Philippines through military agreements and aid, reflecting a strategic alignment with U.S. interests in countering China [1] Group 2 - Russian President Putin announced a 72-hour ceasefire during the Victory Day celebrations, which is perceived as a demonstration of Russia's control over the Eastern Ukraine battlefield [5] - Ukrainian President Zelensky criticized the ceasefire as a political maneuver, calling for a comprehensive and unconditional ceasefire lasting at least 30 days [5] - This marks the third ceasefire announcement by Russia this year, highlighting ongoing tensions and the complexities of the conflict [5] Group 3 - Former U.S. President Trump criticized President Biden and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell during a rally, emphasizing dissatisfaction with economic policies and rising prices [7] - Trump's remarks reflect ongoing tensions between the executive branch and the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding interest rate policies [7] - Analysts suggest that Trump's criticisms may be an attempt to shift blame for economic challenges from government actions to the Federal Reserve [7]

如今，在美国新一届政府加征关税举措负面影响持续发酵的局面下，继续维持利率可能加剧经济放缓， 甚至触发衰退，转向宽松则可能重燃通胀之火。站在岔路口的美联储"按兵不动"之举看似审慎，却也难 逃回避责任、以拖待变的嫌疑。在滞胀阴云逐渐笼罩美国经济的2025年，这种犹豫不决不仅会错失政策 调整的黄金窗口，更可能将美国经济推入"硬着陆"的深渊。 （文章来源：经济日报） 经济数据的矛盾性进一步压缩了美联储政策调整的空间。一段时间以来，美国经济呈现出罕见的自相矛 盾特征：一方面，消费支出与股市表现显露一定韧性，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）偶尔闪现复苏信 号；另一方面，就业市场已现疲态，失业率悄然攀升，商业投资意愿持续低迷。这种状态下，美联储无 论是将数据波动简单归结为短期扰动，还是明确经济步入下行通道，都无法令市场信服。因此美联储的 决策者选择了等待，以确认更清晰的经济轨迹浮现后再做决策。 在美国新一届政府的持续压力下，美联储坚持暂缓降息也有维护"独立性"形象与市场信誉的考虑。近年 来，从误判通胀导致激进加息，到应对经济放缓时的政策反复，美联储的决策权威已遭受多重冲击。分 析认为，面对新一届美国政府的公开喊话与舆论压力，美 ...