巴尔金称，尽管从历史标准来看失业率仍处于低位，但政策制定者正密切关注双重使命的两个方面，力 求在控制通胀的同时推动就业增长。"眼下招聘活动热度低迷，没有人愿意看到劳动力市场进一步恶 化；而通胀水平持续高于目标值已近五年，也没有人希望高通胀预期就此固化。这是一种微妙的平 衡。"这位里士满联储行长预计，减税与放宽监管举措将在今年拉动经济增长；同时，随着政府停摆结 束后官方数据恢复发布，政策制定者将在未来数月内对经济状况形成更清晰的认知。他表示："我期待 在未来数周，随着可靠明晰的经济数据陆续出炉，我们能深入研判、掌握更多信息。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell centers around the rising costs of the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation, which has escalated from an initial budget of $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, highlighting a broader power struggle over U.S. economic policy and monetary independence [1][3]. Group 1: Renovation Costs and Economic Policy - Trump has criticized the Federal Reserve's renovation costs, claiming they are excessive, while he himself has increased the budget for a new White House banquet hall from $200 million to $400 million [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve attributes the cost overruns to unforeseen circumstances such as asbestos contamination and higher-than-expected groundwater levels [3]. - Trump believes that high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve hinder economic growth and increase corporate financing costs, while Powell maintains that high rates are necessary to address inflation and employment [3][5]. Group 2: Legal and Institutional Challenges - Trump faces significant legal hurdles in attempting to dismiss Powell, as the Federal Reserve Act protects the chairman from being removed without just cause, which includes gross negligence [5]. - The Supreme Court has historically upheld the independence of the Federal Reserve, making it difficult for the president to remove the chairman based solely on policy disagreements [5]. - Trump's previous attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve include the dismissal of a board member, which was later overturned by a federal appeals court [5]. Group 3: Potential Candidates for Federal Reserve Leadership - The list of potential candidates to succeed Powell includes Kevin Hassett, who supports interest rate cuts, and Kevin Warsh, who is seen as more hawkish regarding inflation control [6]. - Other candidates mentioned are current Federal Reserve board members and executives from major financial institutions [6]. Group 4: Historical Context and Implications - Historical precedents show that presidential pressure on the Federal Reserve can lead to negative economic outcomes, such as the inflation crisis of the 1970s [9]. - Current economic conditions, including rising tariffs and their impact on prices, complicate the situation, with predictions of short-term price increases due to Trump's trade policies [9]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining trust in the U.S. dollar, and any successful intervention in monetary policy could lead to a loss of confidence among investors and accelerate de-dollarization globally [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari indicated that there is room for the Federal Reserve to lower short-term benchmark interest rates in the near term, although he did not provide a specific timeline for policy easing [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is experiencing a cooling process, but Kashkari does not predict an economic recession [1] - There are sufficient reasons to believe that the current economic slowdown will continue and evolve in a moderate manner [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - Kashkari estimates the neutral federal funds rate to be around 3%, suggesting that there is potential for rate decreases in the coming years [1] - His statements support market expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate a loosening cycle [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Challenges - Current monetary policy faces complex challenges, with inflation levels still above target despite a decline [1] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, including slowing job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1] - Kashkari emphasized the need for careful balancing between controlling inflation and maintaining full employment [1] Group 4: Economic Data and Market Expectations - Recent economic data indicates a weakening growth momentum in the U.S., particularly with significant contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - This has heightened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may start lowering interest rates in the upcoming September or November meetings [1]

大家好，今天我们直接上干货：美联储的权力游戏又双叒叕上演了！ 你以为美国总统只忙着打选战？不，特朗普的"兴趣爱好"多着呢。比如，这两天他又把目光锁定在老朋友——美联储主席鲍威尔身上， 想"请"他离开。不过这回，有人站出来泼了他一盆冷水，这位不是别人，正是财政部长贝森特。 根据20号媒体的爆料，贝森特亲自对特朗普说："现在经济表现良好，市场也挺支持你这套政策，在这个节点上罢免鲍威尔，不仅没必要， 还可能带来反效果。"这话一出口，相当于给特朗普的"行动计划"踩了一脚刹车。 而且贝森特还补了一句非常关键的话：你想要的不是降息吗？人家美联储都在暗示年底要降两次息了，这不正往你希望的方向走着呢？你再 动他，这剧情是不是演得有点多余？ 实际上，特朗普的顾问团也很清楚，这事真动起来，麻烦一堆。比如说，如果罢免了鲍威尔，副主席Jefferson会临时接手，而他是拜登提名 的、还是鲍威尔的亲密战友。这算哪门子换人？而且参议院八月通常休会，没人能保证接替人选能及时获批。搞不好就陷入领导层真空，市 场直接跳水，谁担得起这个后果？ 这么一来，特朗普团队干脆琢磨另一条路：不直接罢免，咱就等，等到明年有空缺名额再慢慢布局。而且现在顾问团 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：我们将完成控制通胀的任务。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：FOMC不适合置评关税问题。美联储的工作是控制通胀。 ...

欧洲央行管委内格尔：我们在控制通胀方面的任务已接近完成，但请相信，我们将采取一切必要措施。 ...