Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost of stainless steel has decreased due to the decline in ferronickel prices, while the supply pressure is expected to increase as stainless steel mills are likely to increase production. However, the demand is weak, resulting in a slight increase in the national stainless - steel social inventory. Technically, the market shows a bearish atmosphere, and it is recommended to wait and see, with previous short positions exiting on dips and attention paid to the MA30 pressure [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,425 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 12 - 01 month contract spread is - 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,058 lots, down 1,632 lots; the main contract position is 36,512 lots, down 1,909 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 71,436 tons, down 299 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SS main contract basis is 570 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 211,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, down 10 yuan. The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, up 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 570,800 tons, down 10,000 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, up 4,000 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is - 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 26,200 units, up 1,000 units [2] Industry News - The US private - sector payroll positions decreased by an average of 11,250 per week in the four weeks ending October 25, with a total reduction of 45,000 in the month, the largest monthly decline since March 2023. The US small - business confidence index dropped to a six - month low in October. In the raw material end, the Philippines is entering the rainy season with lower nickel ore grades, causing a tight raw material inventory for domestic ferronickel plants, but the high - level production of Indonesian ferronickel and expected increase in its return to China lead to a significant decline in ferronickel prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply; Indonesian ferronickel production remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, ferronickel prices have dropped significantly, leading to a decline in raw material costs [2]. - On the supply side, steel mills' production profits have been restored. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and expectations of infrastructure and real - estate demand, stainless steel mills are expected to increase production, increasing supply pressure [2]. - On the demand side, the peak season for downstream demand is not prosperous. Market procurement willingness is low, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. Therefore, the national stainless steel social inventory shows a narrow increase [2]. - Technically, open interest increases while prices fall, indicating increased divergence between bulls and bears. There is a downward channel trend, and attention should be paid to the support at the 12,400 level. It is recommended to hold previous short positions or wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,590 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the spread between the December - January contracts is - 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 9,539 lots, down 1,821 lots; the open interest of the main contract is 68,420 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 72,462 tons, down 838 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 430 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 211,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,500 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, down 5 yuan [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, up 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 580,800 tons, up 4,100 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 45.399 million square meters, up 5.59799 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, up 4,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, down 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, up 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In October, the US ADP employment increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025, higher than the market expectation of 28,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in October was 52.4, the highest since February 2025 [2]. - The State Council will adjust the additional tariff measures on US - originated imported goods from 13:01 on November 10, 2025. The 24% additional tariff rate on US goods will be suspended for one year, and the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [2]. - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, in October, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The penetration rate of new - energy retail sales in the passenger car market was 58.7% [2]. - Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council, attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and delivered a keynote speech, stating that China will focus on high - quality development and promote high - level opening - up [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply; the growth of nickel - iron production in Indonesia has slowed down, and domestic production has gradually declined. Recently, the price of nickel - iron has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs [2]. - On the supply side, the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, but with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, the demand from infrastructure and real estate is gradually increasing, and the production schedule of stainless - steel mills has still increased [2]. - On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up. Coupled with the positive fiscal investment policies in China, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market procurement demand is resilient, and the domestic inventory continues to decline [2]. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted. Both long and short positions are trading cautiously. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 12,900. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan; the price difference between the November - December contracts is 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,766 lots, a decrease of 8,314 lots; the position of the main contract is 100,253 lots, a decrease of 14,871 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 73,896 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 576,700 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters [2]. - The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly production of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level China - US interactions [2]. - From January to September, the profits of large - scale equipment manufacturing industries increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all large - scale industrial enterprises, driving the profit growth of all large - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points; the leading role of high - tech manufacturing industries was obvious, with the profits of large - scale high - tech manufacturing industries increasing by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August [2]. - According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, the ratio of the US government's total debt to GDP will soar by more than 20 percentage points from the current level, reaching 143.4%, breaking the post - pandemic historical record [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. The growth of nickel - iron production in Indonesia has slowed, and domestic production is gradually declining. Recently, the price of nickel - iron has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. On the supply side, although the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, infrastructure and real - estate demand are gradually increasing, and the production schedule of stainless - steel mills is still increasing. On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up, combined with favorable domestic fiscal investment policies. Anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, market procurement demand is resilient, and domestic inventories continue to decline. Technically, with a decrease in positions and a price increase, the short - selling sentiment has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see or hold previous long positions [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,815 yuan/ton, with a change of 5. The 11 - 12 - month contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, a change of - 29,055. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6,452 lots, an increase of 1,130. The position volume of the main contract is 115,124 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 73,896 tons, a decrease of 299 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120. The total monthly output of nickel - iron is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 123,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 150. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 5. The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 [2] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 576,700 tons, a decrease of 6,900. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million. The monthly output of excavators is 27,600, an increase of 2,900. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,700, an increase of 6,900. The monthly output of small tractors is 9,000, a decrease of 1,000 [2] 6. Industry News - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, reaching a basic consensus on important economic and trade issues. The US September CPI data was released, and the market has fully digested the expectation of two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining time of the year [2] 7. Key Points of Concern - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restrictions increase the cost of nickel resource supply, the growth of Indonesian ferronickel production slows down, and domestic production gradually declines. Recently, the price of ferronickel has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. On the supply side, although the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season and the gradual increase in infrastructure and real - estate demand, the production schedule of stainless - steel mills still increases. On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up, combined with the favorable fiscal investment policies in China, and anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. Market procurement demand is resilient, and domestic inventories continue to decline. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or hold previous long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45; the price difference between the October - November contracts is 495 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 110. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 10,699 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 630; the position volume of the main contract is 179,530 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,802. The warehouse receipt quantity is 74,376 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 121 [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of 304 scrap stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,250 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the SS main contract is 505 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 70 [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with an increase of 211,200 tons. The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,100 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 935 yuan/nickel point, with a decrease of 5 yuan/nickel point. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 583,600 tons, with an increase of 200 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, with an increase of 55.9799 million square meters. The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 267,000 units; the monthly production of excavators is 6,900 units, with an increase of 2,900 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The US President Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded that there was no information to provide for the time being. The Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao had video talks with EU officials on issues such as export control and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles, and also talked with the Dutch economic minister about issues such as Nexperia. A Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The cost support from raw materials has strengthened as the price of ferronickel has rebounded from a low level recently. The production profit of steel mills has improved, and with the easing of infrastructure and real - estate demand, the confidence of stainless - steel mills is relatively strong, and it is expected that the production schedule of steel mills will increase. On the demand side, although the downstream is entering the traditional off - season, infrastructure construction is expected to speed up in October. With the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the backlog of orders has been released. The domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, with differences in long - short trading. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go long with a light position on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,895 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton; the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts is - 125 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 7,775 lots, an increase of 3,492 lots. The position of the main contract is 116,704 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 88,233 tons, a decrease of 775 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of the SS main contract is 475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel output is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 24,426.84 tons, a decrease of 13,807.17 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 874,100 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 558,800 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 398,010,100 square meters, an increase of 45,950,100 square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 27,600 units, an increase of 2,900 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,700 units, an increase of 6,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said that the valuation of the US stock market is quite high, and reiterated the dual challenges of rising inflation and falling employment, without clearly stating whether to cut interest rates in October. The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in September hit a two - month low, and the preliminary values of the service PMI and composite PMI both hit three - month lows, but all were above the 50 boom - bust line. The growth has slowed down from the recent peak in July, and enterprises reduced their recruitment scale in September. There are more and more signs of weakening demand, which weakens the pricing power of enterprises, implies squeezed profit margins, and is conducive to the tendency of inflation. On the raw - material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources; the growth of Indonesian ferronickel production has slowed down, and the domestic production has gradually declined [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, though the production profit of steel mills has improved notably due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively small rise in raw material costs, and the steel production in August is expected to increase [2]. - As the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies. Anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, leading to an increase in market purchasing willingness and the release of previously accumulated orders. Meanwhile, holders are more willing to sell, the domestic market is in a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable [2]. - Technically, the position is stable while the price is adjusting, with differences between long and short positions. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [2]. 3. Directory Summaries Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,910 yuan/ton, with a 50 - yuan increase; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 125 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan increase; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,880 lots, with a 3,480 - lot increase; the main contract position is 130,017 lots, with a 1,168 - lot decrease; the warehouse receipt quantity is 89,377 tons, with a 355 - ton decrease [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main contract basis is 510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, with a 1,120 - ton increase; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,000 metal tons, with a 200 - metal - ton decrease; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, with a 21,018.74 - ton increase; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 835,900 tons, with a 205,500 - ton decrease; the SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, with a 50 - yuan decrease; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, with a 26,900 - ton decrease [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless steel production is 1.7379 million tons, with a 39,800 - ton increase; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 558,800 tons, with a 5,200 - ton decrease; the monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a 29,500 - ton decrease [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, with a 4.84168 million - square - meter increase; the monthly excavator production is 24,700 units, with a 2,100 - unit decrease; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, with a 1,900 - unit decrease; the monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, unchanged [2]. Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari thinks it is appropriate to cut rates twice more this year [2]. - ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target but uncertainties remain; ECB Governing Council member Scicluna believes the current interest rate level is appropriate and the central bank can handle downside risks; Governing Council member Stournaras thinks the current interest rate is in a good balance and no further easing is needed [2]. - On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, but the production capacity of Indonesian ferronickel is accelerating its release, and production has rebounded significantly [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly due to the rise in steel prices and the weak increase in raw material costs, and it is expected that the steel mill output will increase in August [2] - At the end of the traditional consumption off - season for downstream products, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is optimistically expected. Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, the anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, the market purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously积压 orders have been released [2] - The willingness of inventory holders to sell goods is relatively high, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable [2] - Technically, the position volume decreases and the price corrects, with differences in long - short trading. Attention should be paid to the support of the lower MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, or go long lightly on dips [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,799 lots, an increase of 44 lots; the main contract position volume is 127,750 lots, a decrease of 3,036 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 95,265 tons, a decrease of 480 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, an increase of 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, a decrease of 205,500 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 269,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 564,000 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, an increase of 48,416,800 square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 24,700 units, a decrease of 2,100 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, a decrease of 1,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, unchanged [2] Industry News - Retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for the third consecutive month. The growth was mainly due to back - to - school shopping, with outstanding performances in online retail, clothing, and sports goods sales [2] - After inflation adjustment, real retail sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month. Despite economic challenges, supported by salary growth and the stock market wealth effect, US consumer spending remains strong [2] - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia is accelerating its release, and the output is expected to rebound significantly. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, weakening the raw material cost support [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support of raw materials has weakened due to the significant decline in ferronickel prices recently, despite the increased supply cost of nickel resources caused by the PNBP policy in Indonesia [2]. - Steel mills' production profits have improved significantly, and it is expected that the steel production in August will increase due to rising steel prices and weak increases in raw material costs [2]. - At the end of the traditional off - season for downstream consumption, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". With the support of domestic fiscal investment policies, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, market purchasing willingness has recovered, and the inventory in the domestic market is decreasing while the spot premium remains stable [2]. - Technically, there is an increase in positions and price adjustments, with differences between long and short positions. Attention should be paid to the support of MA5. It is recommended to wait and see for now or go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,070 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts is - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 15,039 lots, an increase of 1,759 lots; the position of the main contract is 133,829 lots, an increase of 7,543 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 96,349 tons, a decrease of 600 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 350 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, an increase of 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 835,900 tons, a decrease of 205,500 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 123,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 564,000 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters [2]. - The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, a decrease of 1,900 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 24,700 units, a decrease of 2,100 units; the monthly production of excavators is 10,000 units, a decrease of 2,100 units [2]. Industry News - In August 2025, the new RMB loans were 59 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31 billion yuan; the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 460 billion yuan; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.0%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8% [2]. - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year, and also in January, April, and July 2026. There is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week [2].

Report Overview - The report is titled "Nickel & Stainless Steel: Upward Movement Affected by Indonesian Riot and Strike Sentiment" and is a risk management daily report on September 1st, compiled by the New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team of Nanhua [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was strong, mainly affected by the weekend riots in Indonesia, which increased the uncertainty sentiment on the supply side. The stainless steel also showed strength, with spot prices generally rising and inventory being reduced. The market is expected to have upward momentum as it approaches the peak season in September and October [4]. - Macro - level factors such as the September interest - rate cut expectation and the movement of the US dollar index should be continuously monitored. The ongoing riots and strikes in Indonesia are disturbing market sentiment, and the subsequent development needs attention [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, strategies include selling Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and selling call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, strategies include buying Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, selling put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buying out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: Similar to nickel, when the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices for future production procurement, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts), sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - side**: In Indonesia, the first - phase benchmark price in September is expected to be slightly lowered, but the premium remains firm. In the Philippines, there was rainfall in some mining areas during the week, and there is an overall rainfall expectation in September, with limited impact. Nickel iron prices remained firm, and the supply side continued to hold up prices [4]. - **Demand - side**: In the new energy sector, salt factories are relatively strong, the MHP market is in short supply, and new energy vehicle sales are continuously strong. Stainless steel is approaching the peak season in September and October, with demand recovering and having upward momentum [4]. Macro and Market Sentiment - Macro - level factors include the September interest - rate cut expectation and the movement of the US dollar index. The riots and strikes in Indonesia are disturbing market sentiment, although there is no actual impact reported from the industrial park yet [5]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase stainless steel demand, there is an increased expectation of a September interest - rate cut, and the riots in Indonesia are disturbing market sentiment [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, the seasonal inventory of nickel ore is rising, there are still Sino - US tariff disturbances, and South Korea plans to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [6]. Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 123,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,750 yuan/ton or 1%. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,405 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 105 US dollars/ton or 0.61% [7]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,470 tons, a decrease of 1,402 tons compared to the previous period. The LME nickel inventory is 209,844 tons, an increase of 300 tons. The stainless steel social inventory is 928,800 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons [11][12].