Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restrictions increase the cost of nickel resource supply, the growth of Indonesian ferronickel production slows down, and domestic production gradually declines. Recently, the price of ferronickel has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. On the supply side, although the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season and the gradual increase in infrastructure and real - estate demand, the production schedule of stainless - steel mills still increases. On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up, combined with the favorable fiscal investment policies in China, and anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. Market procurement demand is resilient, and domestic inventories continue to decline. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or hold previous long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45; the price difference between the October - November contracts is 495 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 110. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 10,699 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 630; the position volume of the main contract is 179,530 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,802. The warehouse receipt quantity is 74,376 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 121 [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of 304 scrap stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,250 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the SS main contract is 505 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 70 [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with an increase of 211,200 tons. The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,100 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 935 yuan/nickel point, with a decrease of 5 yuan/nickel point. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 583,600 tons, with an increase of 200 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, with an increase of 55.9799 million square meters. The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 267,000 units; the monthly production of excavators is 6,900 units, with an increase of 2,900 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The US President Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded that there was no information to provide for the time being. The Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao had video talks with EU officials on issues such as export control and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles, and also talked with the Dutch economic minister about issues such as Nexperia. A Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The cost support from raw materials has strengthened as the price of ferronickel has rebounded from a low level recently. The production profit of steel mills has improved, and with the easing of infrastructure and real - estate demand, the confidence of stainless - steel mills is relatively strong, and it is expected that the production schedule of steel mills will increase. On the demand side, although the downstream is entering the traditional off - season, infrastructure construction is expected to speed up in October. With the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the backlog of orders has been released. The domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, with differences in long - short trading. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go long with a light position on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,895 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton; the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts is - 125 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 7,775 lots, an increase of 3,492 lots. The position of the main contract is 116,704 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 88,233 tons, a decrease of 775 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of the SS main contract is 475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel output is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 24,426.84 tons, a decrease of 13,807.17 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 874,100 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 558,800 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 398,010,100 square meters, an increase of 45,950,100 square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 27,600 units, an increase of 2,900 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,700 units, an increase of 6,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said that the valuation of the US stock market is quite high, and reiterated the dual challenges of rising inflation and falling employment, without clearly stating whether to cut interest rates in October. The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in September hit a two - month low, and the preliminary values of the service PMI and composite PMI both hit three - month lows, but all were above the 50 boom - bust line. The growth has slowed down from the recent peak in July, and enterprises reduced their recruitment scale in September. There are more and more signs of weakening demand, which weakens the pricing power of enterprises, implies squeezed profit margins, and is conducive to the tendency of inflation. On the raw - material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources; the growth of Indonesian ferronickel production has slowed down, and the domestic production has gradually declined [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, though the production profit of steel mills has improved notably due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively small rise in raw material costs, and the steel production in August is expected to increase [2]. - As the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies. Anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, leading to an increase in market purchasing willingness and the release of previously accumulated orders. Meanwhile, holders are more willing to sell, the domestic market is in a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable [2]. - Technically, the position is stable while the price is adjusting, with differences between long and short positions. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [2]. 3. Directory Summaries Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,910 yuan/ton, with a 50 - yuan increase; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 125 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan increase; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,880 lots, with a 3,480 - lot increase; the main contract position is 130,017 lots, with a 1,168 - lot decrease; the warehouse receipt quantity is 89,377 tons, with a 355 - ton decrease [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main contract basis is 510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, with a 1,120 - ton increase; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,000 metal tons, with a 200 - metal - ton decrease; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, with a 21,018.74 - ton increase; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 835,900 tons, with a 205,500 - ton decrease; the SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, with a 50 - yuan decrease; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, with a 26,900 - ton decrease [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless steel production is 1.7379 million tons, with a 39,800 - ton increase; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 558,800 tons, with a 5,200 - ton decrease; the monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a 29,500 - ton decrease [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, with a 4.84168 million - square - meter increase; the monthly excavator production is 24,700 units, with a 2,100 - unit decrease; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, with a 1,900 - unit decrease; the monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, unchanged [2]. Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari thinks it is appropriate to cut rates twice more this year [2]. - ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target but uncertainties remain; ECB Governing Council member Scicluna believes the current interest rate level is appropriate and the central bank can handle downside risks; Governing Council member Stournaras thinks the current interest rate is in a good balance and no further easing is needed [2]. - On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, but the production capacity of Indonesian ferronickel is accelerating its release, and production has rebounded significantly [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly due to the rise in steel prices and the weak increase in raw material costs, and it is expected that the steel mill output will increase in August [2] - At the end of the traditional consumption off - season for downstream products, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is optimistically expected. Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, the anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, the market purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously积压 orders have been released [2] - The willingness of inventory holders to sell goods is relatively high, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable [2] - Technically, the position volume decreases and the price corrects, with differences in long - short trading. Attention should be paid to the support of the lower MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, or go long lightly on dips [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,799 lots, an increase of 44 lots; the main contract position volume is 127,750 lots, a decrease of 3,036 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 95,265 tons, a decrease of 480 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, an increase of 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, a decrease of 205,500 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 269,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 564,000 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, an increase of 48,416,800 square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 24,700 units, a decrease of 2,100 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, a decrease of 1,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, unchanged [2] Industry News - Retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for the third consecutive month. The growth was mainly due to back - to - school shopping, with outstanding performances in online retail, clothing, and sports goods sales [2] - After inflation adjustment, real retail sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month. Despite economic challenges, supported by salary growth and the stock market wealth effect, US consumer spending remains strong [2] - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia is accelerating its release, and the output is expected to rebound significantly. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, weakening the raw material cost support [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support of raw materials has weakened due to the significant decline in ferronickel prices recently, despite the increased supply cost of nickel resources caused by the PNBP policy in Indonesia [2]. - Steel mills' production profits have improved significantly, and it is expected that the steel production in August will increase due to rising steel prices and weak increases in raw material costs [2]. - At the end of the traditional off - season for downstream consumption, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". With the support of domestic fiscal investment policies, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, market purchasing willingness has recovered, and the inventory in the domestic market is decreasing while the spot premium remains stable [2]. - Technically, there is an increase in positions and price adjustments, with differences between long and short positions. Attention should be paid to the support of MA5. It is recommended to wait and see for now or go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,070 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts is - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 15,039 lots, an increase of 1,759 lots; the position of the main contract is 133,829 lots, an increase of 7,543 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 96,349 tons, a decrease of 600 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 350 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, an increase of 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 835,900 tons, a decrease of 205,500 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 123,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 564,000 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters [2]. - The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, a decrease of 1,900 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 24,700 units, a decrease of 2,100 units; the monthly production of excavators is 10,000 units, a decrease of 2,100 units [2]. Industry News - In August 2025, the new RMB loans were 59 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31 billion yuan; the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 460 billion yuan; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.0%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8% [2]. - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year, and also in January, April, and July 2026. There is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week [2].

Report Overview - The report is titled "Nickel & Stainless Steel: Upward Movement Affected by Indonesian Riot and Strike Sentiment" and is a risk management daily report on September 1st, compiled by the New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team of Nanhua [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was strong, mainly affected by the weekend riots in Indonesia, which increased the uncertainty sentiment on the supply side. The stainless steel also showed strength, with spot prices generally rising and inventory being reduced. The market is expected to have upward momentum as it approaches the peak season in September and October [4]. - Macro - level factors such as the September interest - rate cut expectation and the movement of the US dollar index should be continuously monitored. The ongoing riots and strikes in Indonesia are disturbing market sentiment, and the subsequent development needs attention [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, strategies include selling Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and selling call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, strategies include buying Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, selling put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buying out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: Similar to nickel, when the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices for future production procurement, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts), sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - side**: In Indonesia, the first - phase benchmark price in September is expected to be slightly lowered, but the premium remains firm. In the Philippines, there was rainfall in some mining areas during the week, and there is an overall rainfall expectation in September, with limited impact. Nickel iron prices remained firm, and the supply side continued to hold up prices [4]. - **Demand - side**: In the new energy sector, salt factories are relatively strong, the MHP market is in short supply, and new energy vehicle sales are continuously strong. Stainless steel is approaching the peak season in September and October, with demand recovering and having upward momentum [4]. Macro and Market Sentiment - Macro - level factors include the September interest - rate cut expectation and the movement of the US dollar index. The riots and strikes in Indonesia are disturbing market sentiment, although there is no actual impact reported from the industrial park yet [5]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase stainless steel demand, there is an increased expectation of a September interest - rate cut, and the riots in Indonesia are disturbing market sentiment [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, the seasonal inventory of nickel ore is rising, there are still Sino - US tariff disturbances, and South Korea plans to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [6]. Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 123,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,750 yuan/ton or 1%. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,405 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 105 US dollars/ton or 0.61% [7]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,470 tons, a decrease of 1,402 tons compared to the previous period. The LME nickel inventory is 209,844 tons, an increase of 300 tons. The stainless steel social inventory is 928,800 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons [11][12].

Report Information - Report Name: Stainless Steel Industry Daily Report 2025-08-20 [1] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently. The production profit of steel mills has improved notably due to the increase in steel prices and the weaker increase in raw material costs. Steel mill output is expected to increase in August. At the demand end, as the traditional off - season for downstream consumption nears its end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, leading to a recovery in market purchasing willingness and the release of previously积压 orders. Meanwhile, holders have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, with the decline in positions and prices, the bullish sentiment has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see for now. [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,820 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts is - 65 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,184 lots, an increase of 4,045 lots. The position of the main contract is 135,764 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 119,769 tons, a decrease of 2,334 tons. [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the SS main contract is 400 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 120,900 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units. - In August, the LPR quotes remained unchanged: the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3%. [2] Industry News - At the raw material end, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy issuance restrictions have increased the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the ferronickel production capacity in Indonesia has accelerated its release, and the output has rebounded significantly. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have further regulated the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curbed low - price disorderly competition. - On August 18, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in New Delhi. They had positive, constructive, and forward - looking discussions on bilateral, regional, and international issues of common concern and reached 10 achievements. [2] Key Points to Focus On - No key news today. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The raw material cost support has weakened as the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply and raises costs, but the rapid release of Indonesian ferronickel production capacity has led to a significant rebound in output and a notable decline in ferronickel prices recently [2]. - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, the steel output is expected to increase in August [2]. - At the end of the traditional off - season for downstream consumption, with the optimistic expectation of the peak season from September to October and the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, the market purchasing willingness has recovered, and the backlog of orders has been released. Recently, steel prices have risen, and downstream buyers are mainly purchasing on - demand. The domestic inventory reduction has slowed down, and the spot premium has remained stable [2]. - Technically, with the increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract was 13,225 yuan/ton, a change of 240 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts was - 80 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 17,378 lots, an increase of 4,398 lots; the position of the main contract was 135,260 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity was 103,036 tons, an increase of 53 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi was 13,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi was 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract was 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output was 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel was 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price was 122,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide was 920 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output was 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 592,900 tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume was 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators was 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors was 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, turning from a 0.1% decline in June. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as in June [2]. - The US and Russia are seeking a cease - fire agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which will consolidate Russia's controlled territory. Zelensky stated that he firmly rejects territorial concessions, and an agreement without Ukraine's participation will be an "invalid plan" [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the significant decline in ferronickel prices recently, despite the increased cost of nickel resources from the Indonesian government's PNBP policy and the accelerated release of Indonesian ferronickel production [2]. - On the supply side, steel mills are facing increased cost - inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board, leading to greater production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may also help alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and pressure on export demand. Downstream buyers are hesitant and less willing to accept high - priced goods, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [2]. - Domestic stainless steel inventory has entered the destocking cycle, and the decline in inventory has accelerated with continuous production cuts [2]. - Technically, the position volume has decreased, and both bulls and bears are cautious. Attention should be paid to the support level at 12,800. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small long position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,925 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 24,777 lots, a decrease of 1,719 lots. The main contract position volume is 87,475 lots, a decrease of 1,864 lots [2]. - The stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity is 102,925 tons, a decrease of 61 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 245 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel production is 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation remains a concern [2]. - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax [2]. - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the release of resources, increasing the cost of nickel supply. However, the production of Indonesian ferronickel has rebounded significantly [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The PNBP policy of the Indonesian government restricts the issuance and raises the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia is being released rapidly, and the production has rebounded significantly. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped, weakening the raw material cost support [2]. - Steel mills are facing increasing cost - price inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may alleviate the over - supply situation, and stainless - steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - In the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty and export demand pressure, downstream buyers are cautious, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic stainless - steel inventory has entered a destocking cycle, and the inventory decline is accelerating as production cuts continue [2]. - Technically, the positions are decreasing, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price has fallen below the MA10 support. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on stainless steel and short on nickel [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,805 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 23,761 lots, an increase of 6,549 lots; the main contract position is 94,448 lots, a decrease of 8,202 lots [2]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity is 103,234 tons, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The SS main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, down 1,800 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,700 tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, deciding to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in Beijing in October. The meeting analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work for the second half of the year [2]. - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings. Two voting members support interest - rate cuts, and Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut [2]. - The US private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average [2].