Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PNBP policy implemented by the Indonesian government has increased the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia is being released rapidly, the output has rebounded significantly, and the nickel - iron price has dropped recently, weakening the support of raw material costs [2]. - Steel mills are facing increasing cost - price inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts. Additionally, domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and export demand pressure remaining, downstream players are adopting a wait - and - see, cautious and pessimistic attitude. The inventory reduction in the domestic market is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought about by subsequent production cuts [2]. - Technically, the position is decreasing. It is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 95 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,656 lots, a daily decrease of 2,214 lots; the position of the main contract is 87,766 lots, a daily decrease of 2,472 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,290 tons, a daily decrease of 120 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 100 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 95 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 120,150 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 950 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 905 yuan/nickel point, a daily decrease of 5 yuan/nickel point [2]. - The monthly chromium - iron output in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,900 tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - Trump postponed the reciprocal tariff suspension period to August 1st, and mentioned potential tariffs on the EU and India, as well as high - tariff threats on pharmaceuticals and unspecified semiconductor tariffs [2]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped to a five - month low, and concerns about layoffs eased; China's June passenger car retail sales reached a new high for the month, with new - energy vehicle retail sales increasing by 29.7% year - on - year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened due to the implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia and the planned nickel ore export ban in the Philippines, along with the release of nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia and the decline in nickel - iron prices. The supply pressure remains as steel mills maintain normal production and the 300 - series stainless steel production, despite cuts, is still at a historical high. Entering the traditional consumption off - season, the macro - market uncertainty increases, export demand is under pressure, and downstream shows a cautious attitude. The domestic inventory de - stocking is poor. Technically, with stable positions and cautious multi - and short - sides, and breaking through the MA10 pressure, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 55 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 92 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3,370 lots, an increase of 1,656 lots. The main contract position is 94,683 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,774 tons, a decrease of 121 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel output is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 619,400 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 246,000 units; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The US ADP employment in June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 people, the first negative growth since March 2023. The service industry lost 66,000 jobs in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan "two - major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative wholesale from January to June was 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [2].

不锈钢产业日报 2025-07-01 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12560 | -50 08-09月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 25 | -20 -1406 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -3142 | 3855 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 99607 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 111956 | -184 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13300 | -100 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9200 | 100 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 310 | 10 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月 ...

不锈钢产业日报 2025-06-17 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12480 | -70 07-08月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -10 | 10 5852 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -10513 | -10974 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 186878 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 117410 | -612 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13600 | -50 市场价:废 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12550 | 0 07-08月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -20 | 5 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | 461 | 1070 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 181026 | 680 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 118022 | -361 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13650 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9350 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 495 | -15 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.39 | 0.22 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 18746.54 | 10187.11 进口数量:镍铁(月,万吨) | 81. ...

Report Date - The report is dated June 12, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Report's Core View - The raw material cost support has weakened due to the implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia and the planned nickel ore export ban in the Philippines, along with the release of nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia and the decline in nickel - iron prices [2] - On the supply side, steel mills maintain normal production. Although they cut the production of 300 - series stainless steel, the supply is still at a historical high and the supply pressure remains [2] - On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, export demand pressure, and downstream caution towards high - priced goods. Domestic inventory de - stocking is poor [2] - Technically, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small short position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,585 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread is - 35 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 707 lots, an increase of 1027 lots; the main contract position is 181,372 lots, a decrease of 5791 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 118,985 tons, a decrease of 320 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 510 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 1100 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 18,746.54 tons, an increase of 10,187.11 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 816,900 tons, a decrease of 196,400 tons [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,900 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 945 yuan/nickel point, down 5 yuan [2] - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8243 million tons, a decrease of 77,500 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 611,400 tons, an increase of 5200 tons [2] - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, an increase of 48.3938 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,000 units, a decrease of 7200 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is - 14,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 12,000 units, a decrease of 1000 units [2] Industry News - In May, the US unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4% (market expectation: 2.5%), the unadjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.1% (market expectation: 0.2%), the unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8% (market expectation: 2.9%), and the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was 0.1% (market expectation: 0.3%) [2] - Chinese and US teams had in - depth exchanges and reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5 and the Geneva talks [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 不确定性增加，出口需求压力仍存，下游对高价货谨慎态度较重。国内库存去化表现不佳。技术面，关注M 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 A10压力，预计震荡调整。操作上，建议暂时观望。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 不锈钢产业日报 2025-06-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) -40 07-08月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12640 | -15 | 15 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) -1202 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | -1737 | 61030 | -1832 | | | 仓单数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened due to the implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia and the planned nickel ore export ban in the Philippines, along with the accelerated release of nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia and the decline in nickel - iron prices. The supply side maintains normal production, with steel mills cutting the production of 300 - series stainless steel, but the supply pressure still exists as the total output is at a historical high. The demand side enters the traditional off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, pressure on export demand, and a cautious attitude towards high - priced goods from downstream. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory. Technically, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,690 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 2,762 lots, down 197 lots; the main contract position is 68,854 lots, down 5,161 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 123,122 tons, down 1,269 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main contract basis is 550 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,700 metal tons, down 1,100 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 18,746.54 tons, up 10,187.11 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 816,900 tons, down 196,400 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 123,100 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 960 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8243 million tons, down 77,500 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 606,200 tons, down 21,000 tons; the monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 35,000 units, down 14,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 12,000 units, down 1,000 units; the monthly output of excavators is 26,000 units, down 7,200 units [2] Industry News - US President Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates; the ADP employment in the US in May increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000; the Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in US economic activity, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressure; the Indonesian government implemented the PNBP policy, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the Philippine government planned a nickel ore export ban from June 2025; the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%, and the cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated to be 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [2] Key Points to Focus On - No news on the day [2]

Group 1: Report Title and Authors - The report focuses on nickel and stainless steel, predicting a short - term wide - range oscillating trend [1] - The research team is the Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team, including Xia Yingying and Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The intraday Shanghai nickel bottomed out and oscillated. The news of Indonesia's quota increase to 3.2 billion tons needs verification, and the premium has increased. There is an expected increase in the supply of Philippine nickel ore, and the impact of the rainy season is gradually weakening. The nickel - iron price stabilized during the day. Some steel mills in China and Indonesia announced production cuts, mainly affecting the output of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel. The demand in the off - season is sluggish. The nickel salt in the new energy chain declined due to the nickel price. The external market corrected to some extent, and the subsequent trend of LME nickel should be monitored [3] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the Sino - US trade tariff agreement and the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025. Negative factors include the increasing supply of ore at the end of the Philippine rainy season, high stainless - steel inventory with no obvious improvement in demand, anti - dumping investigations by multiple stainless - steel trading countries, and the news of Indonesia's quota increase [4] Group 4: Price and Market Data Nickel - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.01% and a historical percentile of 2.8% [2] - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main contract, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 120,480 yuan/ton, 123,000 yuan/ton, 123,150 yuan/ton, and 123,370 yuan/ton respectively. The LME nickel 3M is 15,095 US dollars/ton. The trading volume increased by 14.07% to 181,192 lots, the open interest decreased by 3.91% to 102,540 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.78% to 22,170 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 29.8% to - 1,980 yuan/ton [2][5] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless - steel main contract, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 12,690 yuan/ton, 12,875 yuan/ton, 12,925 yuan/ton, and 12,735 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume decreased by 20.33% to 139,550 lots, the open interest decreased by 1.13% to 101,554 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1.25% to 131,555 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 21.47% to 990 yuan/ton [6] Group 5: Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 42,389 tons, a decrease of 1,762 tons; LME nickel inventory is 200,142 tons, a decrease of 720 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 973.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [7] Group 6: Management Strategies Inventory Management - When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory impairment, short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% [2] Procurement Management - When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about the rise in raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the futures market. Also, sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio determined by the procurement plan [2] Group 7: Graphical Information - There are graphs showing the trends of Shanghai nickel futures main contract closing price, LME nickel (3 - month) electronic - disk closing price, stainless - steel main contract closing price, nickel spot average price,上期所镍仓单库存 seasonality, Philippine red - laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price, production profit rate of nickel sulfate by different raw materials, battery - grade nickel sulfate premium over first - grade nickel beans, Chinese 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price, and Chinese 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil profit rate seasonality, etc. [8][10][12][13][15][17][21][22][23]

| 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.7-12.6 | 15.02% | 2.8% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 镍&不锈钢：基本面与宏观整体偏空 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | 理 | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 理 | 涨 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面提前采购锁 ...