Core Viewpoint - Hapag-Lloyd continues its operations in the Strait of Hormuz without interruption while closely monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East [1] Group 1 - The company emphasizes that its operations in the Strait of Hormuz are ongoing and will not be disrupted [1] - There is a strong focus on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, indicating potential risks and considerations for future operations [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly focusing on the military actions of Israel against Iran and their implications for the oil market and global economy [1][4][19]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Military Actions and Geopolitical Tensions** - Israel's military actions target Iran's nuclear facilities, missile technology, and regional influence, aiming to curb Iran's nuclear capabilities and missile development [1][2][5]. - The recent attacks have heightened tensions in the Middle East, causing oil prices to spike above $80 per barrel due to concerns over supply chain security [1][4]. 2. **Economic Impact on Iran** - Iran is facing severe economic challenges, including currency devaluation, rising prices, and unemployment, which the Raisi government believes can be alleviated by improving relations with the U.S. [7][8]. - The internal division in Iran regarding nuclear policy reflects a broader struggle between hardliners and moderates, complicating the country's response to external pressures [9][10][11]. 3. **International Reactions and Future Implications** - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) condemned Iran for violating non-proliferation agreements, which Iran attributes to the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal [12]. - The U.S. is adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping to leverage Israel's actions to pressure Iran, but this may backfire and escalate tensions further [13][20]. 4. **Potential for Escalation** - The conflict may lead to continued retaliatory actions from Iran, including drone and missile strikes, particularly if Israel targets Iranian nuclear facilities [17][21]. - The lack of effective dialogue mechanisms increases the risk of prolonged conflict, with both sides potentially engaging in further military actions [22][27]. 5. **Impact on Global Oil Market** - The ongoing conflict poses a threat to global energy markets, with potential disruptions to shipping routes and increased volatility in oil prices [19][25]. - Despite the tensions, Israel has not targeted Iran's energy infrastructure directly, focusing instead on nuclear and military sites, which may limit immediate impacts on commodity prices [25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Strategic Timing of Attacks** - Israel's military actions were strategically timed to coincide with significant religious observances and upcoming negotiations, aiming to disrupt diplomatic efforts [3]. 2. **Regional Dynamics** - The conflict is not only a bilateral issue but also affects broader regional dynamics, with implications for U.S. relations with other Middle Eastern countries and the potential for increased instability [4][18][27]. 3. **Long-term Economic Consequences for Iran** - The economic situation in Iran is exacerbated by external sanctions and internal mismanagement, leading to a critical juncture where the government must decide on its approach to international relations [7][8][9]. 4. **Potential for Broader Conflict** - The situation could escalate into a wider regional conflict, particularly if Iran perceives a direct threat to its sovereignty or national security [14][27]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the intricate relationship between military actions, economic implications, and geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent has a chance to challenge $85 per barrel in the third quarter (an upward revision of $5 per barrel from last week), but in the medium to long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices, and Brent may test $50 per barrel within the year [6]. - In the short - term, due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the risk premium can be freely hyped. Fundamentally, OPEC+'s month - on - month production increase is lower than market expectations, and there are still positive factors such as a significant contraction in Iranian crude oil supply under US sanctions, low absolute inventory levels in major regions excluding floating storage, and a slowdown in the growth of US shale oil supply. Coupled with the positive sentiment from the China - US presidential call, oil prices may continue to rebound [6]. - If OPEC+ effectively implements production increases, the medium - to - long - term oversupply pressure in the crude oil market will increase. Combined with the uncertainty of the trade war, there may be a deeper decline within the year [6]. - The strategy is to hold long - only positions and take profits as appropriate, and also take profits on positive spreads as appropriate [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio drops from a high level [12]. - Overseas inflation continues to decline, and China - US "trade" relations ease [18]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing rebounds [19]. 3.2 Supply - **Country - specific supply situations**: - In Venezuela, due to intensified US sanctions, PDVSA's sour crude production is difficult to maintain. Chevron's export capacity is terminated, and there is an oversupply situation [7]. - Kazakhstan's production in May exceeded the target, mainly due to the increased production capacity of the Tengiz oil field led by Chevron and the failure of the government's negotiation on production cuts with operators [7]. - Iraq is a key country for compensatory production cuts. If the Israel - Iran conflict escalates, it may limit Iraq's crude oil exports to the Asia - Pacific market [7]. - The UAE's Adnoc reduces Murban crude oil export forecasts, which has affected its premium compared to other Middle Eastern varieties [7]. - Saudi Arabia's production in May increased slightly but was still below the target. It is expected to be the main driving force for OPEC+ production increases in the coming months [7]. - Russia's actual available idle production capacity is limited due to sanctions, and it questioned accelerating production increases at the May OPEC+ meeting [7]. - The US EIA predicts that US crude oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but will decline in 2026. Drilling activities are decreasing, and capital expenditure by shale oil companies is being cut [8]. - Iran's May crude oil production reached the highest level since August 2018, but it faces the threat of supply interruption due to the Israel - Iran conflict [8]. - **OPEC+ production strategies**: - OPEC+ shifted to a market - share strategy in 2025, accelerating the lifting of the additional 2.2 million barrels per day production cut plan agreed at the end of 2023. The production target increase has accelerated from 137,000 barrels per day to 411,000 barrels per day [8]. - There are differences among OPEC+ members regarding production increases. Russia and Oman questioned the collective decision in May, but the decision was advanced [8]. - Most OPEC+ countries are approaching their effective production capacity, and differences in production capacity assessment are a future challenge [8]. 3.3 Demand - **Asia**: - China's crude oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be around 0.8%, with a daily demand of 16.23 million barrels. Saudi Aramco's supply to China in July is slightly lower than in June, and state - owned refineries' demand for Saudi crude has increased while private refineries' demand has decreased [10]. - India's overall oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be 170,000 barrels per day on average, contributing significantly to global demand growth. Its oil product consumption in May increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. - Japan, South Korea, and Indian refineries will receive their "usual quantities" of Saudi crude in July, and the demand is affected by prices [10]. - **America**: - The US's crude oil imports from Iran may have decreased significantly in May, but overall imports remain strong due to large - scale inventory replenishment. The refinery utilization rate in the US Gulf Coast region reached a high this year [10]. - **Europe**: - At least three European buyers will receive their "full contractual volumes" in July, but one has reduced demand due to price increases. Aramco has raised the July formula price, and European local crude has a price advantage [10]. - **Africa**: - The domestic demand of Nigeria has been fluctuating. The Dangote refinery is diversifying its crude oil sources and reducing its dependence on domestic grades. Some market participants expect European demand to rebound in May [10]. 3.4 Inventory - US commercial inventories are declining, and inventories in the Cushing area are stabilizing but are significantly lower than historical averages [61]. - Refining margins are oscillating strongly [63]. - European crude oil inventories are rebounding, while diesel and gasoline inventories are decreasing [65]. - Domestic refined oil margins are recovering [68]. 3.5 Price and Spreads - The North American basis has a slight rebound [72]. - The month - spread has rebounded [73]. - SC is weaker than the overseas market, the month - spread has declined, and the valuation is at a low level [74]. - The net long - position has stabilized [76].