1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coking coal and coke futures market. Speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, tightening the spot liquidity. Coal enterprises have raised prices, pressuring coking profits. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. - This week, iron ore prices rebounded strongly, shrinking the immediate steel profits, but the steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little intention to voluntarily reduce hot metal production, resulting in strong procurement demand for coking coal and coke. - In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the long - term, the sharp rise in furnace materials poses a potential threat to steel mill profitability, and high hot metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined significantly, and inventory accumulation in Tangshan has accelerated, which may trigger a negative feedback mechanism. - In terms of operations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal and coke. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 850 - 1130, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. - **Coke**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1450 - 1650, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13%. [3] 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For inventory hedging, when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging ratio is 25% when entering the market at 1650 - 1700 and 50% at 1700 - 1750. [3] 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Decrease in Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased by 897 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 293 tons, coking coal decreased by 500 hands, and silicon manganese decreased by 1177 sheets. - **Increase in Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron increased by 200 sheets. - **No Change in Inventory**: The inventory of iron ore and coke remained unchanged. [3] 3.4 Core Contradiction - Short - term: The combination of speculative and rigid demand supports the prices of coking coal and coke, and the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. - Long - term: The strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits, and high hot metal production may not last. Steel billet export and inventory issues may trigger negative feedback. [4] 3.5利多解读 - The "Supply - side 2.0" has affected market sentiment, creating a positive market outlook. - Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a per - ton profit of over 100, and hot metal production in July is unlikely to decrease. - There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. [5] 3.6利空解读 - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production ahead of schedule. - The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. - The shipment of imported coal has increased, leading to greater pressure on future arrivals at ports. [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - **Coking Coal**: The spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads have shown various changes. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread decreased by 0.5 compared to the previous day and 6.5 compared to the previous week. - **Coke**: Similar price, basis, and spread changes are observed. The coke 09 - 01 spread decreased by 6 compared to the previous day and 7 compared to the previous week. - **Other Ratios**: The coking profit, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio also changed. [6]

Group 1 - The steel industry is experiencing a significant price increase in coking coal and coke, driven by macroeconomic narratives and government initiatives to combat "involution" in the sector [1][4] - The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has emphasized the need to control capacity and eliminate backward production capacity to prevent overcapacity risks in the steel industry [1][2] - Coking coal imports increased by 23.31% month-on-month in June, reaching 9.10842 million tons, although this represents a nearly 8% year-on-year decline [1] Group 2 - The operating rate of coking coal mines has risen to 85.5%, reflecting a recovery in production as safety and environmental checks ease [2] - The market for coking coal remains strong, with a notable increase in inventory levels among independent coking enterprises, which rose by 5.21% to 8.9235 million tons [2] - The sentiment in the market is resilient, with downstream steel and coke enterprises actively replenishing their coal inventories [2][3] Group 3 - Futures market expectations are bullish for both coking coal and coke, with analysts predicting continued price increases due to strong demand and limited supply recovery [3][4] - The first round of price increases for coke has been implemented, and there are expectations for a second round as coking enterprises seek to improve profitability [4][5] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with speculation and rigid demand providing effective support for coking coal and coke prices [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the double - coking futures market may continue to fluctuate strongly. The warm macro - atmosphere, speculative demand, and strong rigid demand support the prices. However, in the medium - to - long term, the strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits, and high hot metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders are declining, and inventory accumulation may trigger a negative feedback mechanism. - For trading operations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal and coke. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range forecast is 800 - 980, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 32.68%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 63.89% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range forecast is 1400 - 1600, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.33%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 48.97% [3]. Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For inventory hedging when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging tool is J2509, the selling direction is recommended. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 1550 - 1600 and 50% when the entry range is 1600 - 1650 [3]. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Decrease in Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of rebar decreased by 7169 tons to 87431 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1754 tons to 60747 tons, coking coal decreased by 1100 hands to 500 hands, and ferrosilicon manganese decreased by 3441 sheets to 79931 sheets compared with the previous day [3]. - **No Change in Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of iron ore remained at 3000 hands, coke remained at 760 hands, and ferrosilicon remained at 21950 sheets [3]. Core Contradictions - **Short - term Positive Factors**: The warm macro - atmosphere leads to a strong rebound in the double - coking futures market. Speculative demand enters the market, tightening spot liquidity and causing coal enterprises to raise prices. The second round of price increases by coking plants next week is likely to be implemented. Steel mills' demand for coking coal and coke procurement is strong, and both speculative and rigid demand support prices [4]. - **Medium - to - long - term Negative Factors**: The strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits. High hot - metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders are declining, and inventory accumulation may trigger a negative feedback mechanism [4]. Bullish Interpretations - Supply - side 2.0 disrupts market sentiment, creating a positive market outlook. - Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100 yuan, and hot - metal production is unlikely to decrease in July. - There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. [4] Bearish Interpretations - Coal mines in Shanxi have复产 unexpectedly. - The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. - The shipment of imported coal is increasing, and the subsequent arrival pressure is rising. [5] Double - Coking Futures and Spot Price Data - **Coking Coal**: There are differences in the cost of coking coal warehouse receipts and basis for different varieties. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 878 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis is - 48.5 yuan/ton. The prices of various coking coal varieties have different daily and weekly changes [5]. - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, there are differences in the cost of coke warehouse receipts and basis for different varieties. The current spot prices of coke in different regions also show certain changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke is 1030 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Related Ratios**: The current values of the coking profit ratio, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio are 73, 0.517, 2.073, and 1.619 respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [5].

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/07/09 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 严志妮：Z0022076 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 780-900 | 31.17% | 60.79% | | 焦炭 | 1350-1500 | 23.97% | 44.10% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存套保 | 焦炭盘面大幅升水现货，交割利润可观 | 多 | 做空J2509 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1425-1450 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1450-1500 | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | ...

双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 780-900 | 31.00% | 60.43% | | 焦炭 | 1350-1500 | 24.12% | 44.76% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存套保 | 焦炭盘面大幅升水现货，交割利润可观 | 多 | 做空J2509 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1425-1450 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1450-1500 | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/07/07 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 严志妮：Z0022076 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 | | ...