Group 1 - The meeting held on August 19 focused on the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the importance of regulating competition for high-quality development [1] - Key actions proposed include strengthening industry regulation, managing project investments, and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1] - The meeting also highlighted the need to curb low-price competition, improve price monitoring mechanisms, and combat illegal practices such as selling below cost and false marketing [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has repeatedly mentioned the need to strengthen governance in key industries, including photovoltaics [2] - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved into a comprehensive policy system that includes supply-side reforms and market unification, with photovoltaics expected to benefit significantly [2] - The structural market dynamics are driven by the clearing of photovoltaic capacity, technological iterations, and the stabilization of profitability in agriculture, among other factors [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the stock market may experience intensified volatility after continuous gains, but the general direction is to go long on dips. The bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term, with interest rates generally trending downward in the long - term. [3][6] - Metal prices show different trends. Copper prices may be strongly volatile in the short - term, aluminum prices may fluctuate, zinc prices have a large downward risk, lead prices have a short - term decline risk, nickel prices have a callback pressure, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. [10][11][13] - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively repaired, and the prices of iron ore, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon all face certain uncertainties and are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment. [25][27][28] - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber prices should be observed neutrally, oil prices have a good left - hand layout opportunity, methanol prices are recommended to be observed, urea prices can be considered for long positions at low levels, and the prices of other chemical products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. [42][43][44] - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of live pigs, eggs, soybean meal, vegetable meal, oils, sugar, and cotton all have different trends and trading strategies, mainly affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies. [56][57][58] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - News: The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15; 152 energy - storage enterprises advocate against involution; the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission issue a joint statement on the market fluctuations of stablecoins; the US PPI in July increased significantly compared with the forecast and the previous value. [2] - Basis ratio of stock index futures: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different terms are given. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the market may be volatile in the short - term, but the general direction is to go long on dips. [3] Treasury Bond - Market: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. [4] - News: The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting and believes there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut; the UK's GDP in the second quarter increased better than expected. [4] - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan. [5][6] - Strategy: The economic data in the first half of the year was resilient, but the PMI data in July was lower than expected. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and the interest rate is expected to trend downward in the long - term, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. [6] Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 98.21. [7] - Market outlook: The US inflation data exceeded expectations, and the Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts were cautious, putting short - term pressure on precious metal prices. However, considering factors such as US debt interest payments and government intervention, the Fed is likely to implement further easing, and it is recommended to wait for price corrections to go long. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are given. [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the slowdown of the domestic equity market, the copper price first declined and then rebounded. The inventory and basis in the domestic and international markets changed. The copper price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with support from tight raw material supply and pressure from increased supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are given. [10] Aluminum - Market: Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the slowdown of domestic inventory accumulation, the aluminum price first declined and then rebounded. The inventory and basis in the domestic and international markets changed. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support from low domestic inventory and strong external demand, and pressure from weak downstream consumption and unstable trade situations. The reference operating ranges for domestic and LME aluminum are given. [11] Zinc - Market: The zinc price declined on Thursday. The zinc ore is in a loose supply situation, the domestic zinc ingot is in a surplus situation, and the LME market's structural disturbance is gradually receding. The zinc price still has a large downward risk. [12][13] Lead - Market: The lead price declined on Thursday. The lead ore inventory at ports increased in August, the production rates of primary and secondary lead increased, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased again. The downstream consumption is under pressure, and the short - term lead price has a certain decline risk. [14] Nickel - Market: The nickel price declined and adjusted on Thursday. Affected by factors such as the US PPI data and the market's interest rate cut expectations, the non - ferrous metal sector was under pressure. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron market sentiment improved, but the surplus pressure still existed. The refined nickel spot trading was still sluggish. The short - term nickel price may have a callback pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are given. [15] Tin - Market: The tin price declined and adjusted on August 15. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end is still under raw material supply pressure in the short - term. The domestic demand is weak, and the overseas demand is strong. The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the reference operating ranges for domestic and LME tin are given. [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - Market: The spot index of lithium carbonate increased, and the futures price also increased slightly. The domestic production of lithium carbonate increased this week, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply improvement is the focus of the market, and it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can choose the right entry point. The reference operating range for the futures contract is given. [18] Alumina - Market: The alumina index declined on August 14. The domestic and overseas ore supply is disturbed, but the alumina production capacity is in an over - supply situation. It is recommended to short at high levels when the short - term market sentiment cools down. The reference operating range for the domestic futures contract is given, and factors such as warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies need to be concerned. [19] Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel futures price declined on Thursday. The spot prices in some markets also declined, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The social inventory decreased, and the market trading sentiment was not high. The stainless steel market is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. [20][21] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The futures contract of cast aluminum alloy declined on Thursday. The spot price was stable, and the downstream demand was mainly rigid. The inventory increased slightly. The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. [22] Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined on Thursday. The export volume decreased slightly this week, and the demand for rebar decreased significantly, while the demand for hot - rolled coil increased. The inventory of both is in a marginal increase state, and the steel price may decline if the demand cannot be effectively repaired. It is recommended to pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand and the support of cost. [24][25] Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore futures price declined on Thursday. The overseas iron ore shipment and arrival volume decreased, the iron water production increased slightly, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased significantly. The iron ore price may be adjusted slightly in the short - term, and the contradiction between high iron water production and weak terminal demand needs to be concerned. [26][27] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price of glass was stable, the inventory increased, and the market sentiment cooled down. The glass price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the long - term trend depends on factors such as anti - involution policies and real estate demand. [28] - Soda Ash: The spot price of soda ash increased slightly, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase space is limited. [29] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined on August 14. The market is affected by factors such as anti - involution and supply - side policies, and it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can choose the right opportunity. The manganese silicon industry is still in an over - supply situation, and the demand for ferrosilicon and the black sector may weaken in the future. [30][31][33] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of industrial silicon increased on Thursday. The supply is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the implementation of anti - involution policies needs to be concerned. [34][35] - Polysilicon: The futures price of polysilicon declined on Thursday. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory may accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the impact of warehouse receipts on the price needs to be concerned. [36][37] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: NR and RU fluctuated weakly. The long and short sides have different views. The operating rate of tire enterprises changed, and the inventory of natural rubber decreased. The rubber price has risen a lot in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct band - trading operations. [39][40][42] Crude Oil - Market: WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased, while INE crude oil price declined. The gasoline and diesel inventories in Singapore increased, and the fuel oil inventory decreased. The oil price is considered to be undervalued, and it is a good opportunity for left - hand layout. [43] Methanol - Market: The methanol futures price declined on August 14. The domestic production increased, the port inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak. The price is under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. [44] Urea - Market: The urea futures price declined on August 14. The domestic production increased, the demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizer and export, and the inventory is still at a medium - high level. The urea price is undervalued, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low levels. [45] Styrene - Market: The spot and futures prices of styrene declined, and the basis strengthened. The cost end has support, the BZN spread has room to repair, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate upward with the cost end. [46][47] PVC - Market: The PVC futures price declined on Thursday. The cost end decreased, the production increased, the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory increased. The fundamentals are poor, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] Ethylene Glycol - Market: The ethylene glycol futures price declined on Thursday. The supply decreased slightly, the downstream demand increased slightly, and the port inventory increased. The valuation is relatively high, and the price may decline in the short - term. [49] PTA - Market: The PTA futures price declined on Thursday. The supply may increase in August, the demand is about to end the off - season, and the inventory may accumulate. The PXN spread has upward momentum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long with PX when the peak season demand improves. [50][51] p - Xylene - Market: The p - xylene futures price declined on Thursday. The production increased, the downstream PTA short - term overhaul increased, and the inventory may decrease. The valuation has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long with crude oil in the peak season. [52] Polyethylene - Market: The polyethylene futures price declined. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance, the cost end has support, the inventory is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold short positions. [53] Polypropylene - Market: The polypropylene futures price declined. The production may increase due to the rebound of refining profit, the demand is in the off - season, and the cost end may dominate the market. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly with crude oil in July. [54] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: The domestic pig price fluctuated on Thursday. The market is stable, and the price is expected to be stable today. The current inventory release can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters, and it is recommended to go long on dips for medium - and long - term contracts, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity for far - month contracts. [56] Eggs - Market: The egg price was mostly stable on Thursday. The supply is large, and the price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term egg price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting after the price rebounds. [57] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market: The USDA's reduction of the soybean planting area has a positive impact, the import cost of soybeans has increased, the price of rapeseed meal has declined, and the price of soybean meal has increased slightly. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal surplus situation, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range and pay attention to factors such as supply pressure and Sino - US tariffs. [58][59] Oils - Market: The prices of the three major domestic oils declined on Thursday. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, Indonesia has distributed a large amount of biodiesel, and the import of Indian vegetable oil has changed. The oils are supported by policies and low inventory, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view the price fluctuation. [60][61][62] Sugar - Market: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The international sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic import supply will increase in the future, and the price is expected to decline. [63] Cotton - Market: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The USDA report is positive, and the Sino - US tariff suspension is beneficial to domestic cotton. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the short - term cotton price may fluctuate at a high level. [64][65][66]

Group 1: Report Overall Information - The report is the Black Building Materials Daily on August 15, 2025, covering various black building materials such as steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash [1] Group 2: Steel Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 109,055 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2382 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.636544 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 16,049 lots [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3432 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 78,386 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.291831 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 62,005 lots [2] Spot Market - The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2] - The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished products showed a weak and volatile trend. This week, the export volume declined slightly, and the overall export remained weak [3] - In terms of fundamentals, the demand for rebar decreased significantly this week, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation rate increased. For hot - rolled coils, demand rebounded significantly, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise marginally, steel mills' profit levels are good, and production remains high, but the demand side's ability to absorb is obviously insufficient [3] - With the Politburo meeting concluded and the "anti - involution" sentiment gradually cooling down, market sentiment has become more rational, and the futures price trend has started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not be able to maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Market - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 775.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.52% (-20.00), and the position changed by - 462 lots to 452,000 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 907,500 lots [5] Spot Market - The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 771 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.12 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.39% [5] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. On the shipment side, shipments from Australia continued to decline month - on - month due to mine maintenance, shipments from Brazil increased month - on - month, and shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly month - on - month [6] - In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron output according to Steel Union data was 2.4066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the utilization rate of the production capacity of previously restarted blast furnaces [6] - In terms of inventory, port inventories increased slightly, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased significantly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken this week, and the decline in rebar consumption data was obvious [6] - From a fundamental perspective, the current supply side is in the traditional shipment off - season for overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability rate of steel mills has started to decline after raw material prices reached a relatively high level. Due to the slight weakening of terminal demand, the short - term upward increase in pig iron may be limited [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Futures Market - On August 14, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.40% at 6050 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) continued to weaken, closing down 0.86% at 5744 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 156 yuan/ton [8] Market Analysis - From a daily - line perspective, the futures price of manganese silicon is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can still participate at the right time [9] - For ferrosilicon, the futures price is also above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. Similar to manganese silicon, investment positions are advised to wait and see, and hedging positions can participate as appropriate [9] - Since the Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1, the "anti - involution" trading has affected the market. As the sentiment of Supply - side 2.0 cools down, the market is squeezing out the over - valued part, driving prices down. Currently, sentiment still has a significant impact on the futures price [10] - In the short - term, it is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, and it is better to wait and see. However, hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10] - Fundamentally, the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed due to "anti - involution." For ferrosilicon, there has been no obvious change, and it is expected that in the future, there will be a marginal weakening of demand for manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector [11] Group 5: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Yesterday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by - 14,051 lots to 535,123 lots [13] - In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was 525 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was 275 yuan/ton [13] - The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not fundamentally changed. In August, the operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to increase, and downstream demand can provide some support, but new inventory pressure may occur [14] Polysilicon - Yesterday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 50,430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.68% (-860). The weighted contract position changed by - 4414 lots to 310,109 lots [15] - In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to SMM was 44.5 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was - 3430 yuan/ton [15] - In July, "anti - involution" and the expectation of a polysilicon industry capacity integration plan drove prices up rapidly. In August, polysilicon is expected to increase production, and downstream silicon wafer production has increased to some extent, but silicon materials are likely to accumulate inventory. The price of downstream distributed components has increased and then回调, and whether the price increase chain in the industry can be smoothly transmitted to the end - user remains to be seen [16] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday, the spot price in Shahe was 1164 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price in Central China was 1120 yuan, also unchanged from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million weight boxes (+2.55%), and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [18] - After the Politburo meeting, market sentiment cooled down, and glass prices回调 significantly. Currently, the market sentiment has basically been digested. Glass production continues to increase, inventory pressure has increased, and downstream real - estate demand data has not improved significantly [18] - In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macro sentiment. If there are substantial policies in the real - estate sector, futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is needed for significant price increases [18] Soda Ash - The spot price was 1280 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons (0.94%) from Monday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 760,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.1338 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1100 tons [19] - The downstream float glass operating rate increased slightly, and the photovoltaic glass operating rate decreased and then stabilized. Downstream buyers are waiting and seeing, and procurement enthusiasm has slowed down. Soda ash production facilities are operating stably, and inventory pressure has increased, but heavy - soda ash inventory has decreased slightly [19] - In the short term, soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, under the "anti - involution" logic, supply - side and market sentiment will have a greater impact on prices, and the price center is expected to gradually rise, but the room for price increases will be limited due to the slow improvement of downstream demand [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, the current supply - side pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season of overseas mines. There is still demand support, but the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the short - term market is affected by emotions, and it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situation [10]. - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended that both long and short positions participate cautiously [16]. - For glass and soda ash, in the short term, both are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - emotions, and soda ash prices are affected by the supply - side and market emotions, but there are still contradictions in the supply - demand fundamentals [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3222 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.10%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3451 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-0.94%) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing this week, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks with an enlarged increase. Hot - rolled coil showed a decline in both supply and demand, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventory of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is increasing marginally, while the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 795.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.75% (-6.00), and the position increased by 8620 hands to 45.24 million hands [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. The daily average hot - metal output decreased slightly due to blast furnace maintenance. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased marginally [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Positions**: On August 13, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.59% at 6074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.45% at 5794 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term market is affected by emotions. The over - capacity pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and there may be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. Ferrosilicon has not changed significantly, and there is also a situation of marginal weakening of demand [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon was 8600 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.71% (-240). The weighted contract position increased by 6636 hands to 549,174 hands [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. In August, the production capacity is expected to increase, and the demand can provide some support, but new inventory pressure may occur [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon was 51,290 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.98% (-510). The weighted contract position decreased by 6830 hands to 314,523 hands [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, polysilicon production is expected to increase, and downstream silicon wafer production is also increasing, but the inventory is still at a high level. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 3.95% [18]. - **Market Outlook**: The price adjustment space is relatively limited in the short term, and it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, it follows macro - emotions [18]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1260 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day. As of August 11, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8762 million tons, an increase of 0.60% [19]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is becoming more rational, and the futures market trend is weakening. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - The influence of sentiment on the futures market is still significant, and prices will remain volatile. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short - term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [10]. - In the long - term, the prices of glass and soda ash are affected by the "anti - involution" logic, with their price centers expected to gradually rise, but their upside potential is limited due to weak demand [18][19]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,258 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.246%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1,197 tons, and the position decreased by 7,237 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,484 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (0.548%), with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 8,925 tons and the position increasing by 6,551 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by production restriction news, the cost side price rose, driving up the finished product price. The export volume declined slightly this week. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with social inventory accumulating for two consecutive weeks. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, with significant inventory accumulation. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 801.00 yuan/ton, up 1.52% (+12.00), with a position increase of 51,084 lots to 443,800 lots. The weighted position was 940,500 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 35.74 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.27% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data weakened slightly. The supply pressure is not significant, and demand support still exists [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.16% at 6,110 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.17% at 5,820 yuan/ton. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically [8][9]. - **Market Outlook**: The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon has not changed. Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may face weakening marginal demand. Attention should be paid to downstream demand and relevant policies [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8,840 yuan/ton, down 1.78% (-160). The spot price remained flat. The supply is expected to increase in August, and demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 51,800 yuan/ton, down 2.24% (-1,185). The spot price remained flat. In August, polysilicon is expected to increase production, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe and Central China decreased. The national inventory increased by 3.95% month - on - month. The market sentiment has cooled down. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, it depends on policies and demand [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory increased by 0.60%. The downstream is on the sidelines. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise, but the upside is limited [19].

黑色建材日报 2025-08-12 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3250 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 37 元/吨（1.151%）。当日注册仓单 95557 吨, 环比增加 579 吨。主力合约持仓量为 161.2625 万手，环比增加 515 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3340 元/吨, 环比增加 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3360 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3465 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 37 元/吨（1.079%）。 当日注册仓单 69461 吨, 环比减 少 1454 吨。主力合约持仓量为 137.5009 万手，环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, sentiment continues to significantly impact the market. Short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can choose appropriate times for hedging. The markets are currently in a state of disorderly and wide - range fluctuations. Although the current high - frequency data shows some resilience in demand, there is a risk of marginal weakening of demand in the future for both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and whether the state introduces relevant demand - supporting measures [15][95] 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week and 450 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; futures主力 (SM509) closes at 6064 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from last week and 440 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the basis is 76 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 1.25%, at a neutral historical level. The calculated immediate profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 246 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 226 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 446 yuan/ton. The calculated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia is 6066 yuan/ton, Ningxia 6026 yuan/ton, and Guangxi 6346 yuan/ton. Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output is 19.58 tons, up 0.5 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 4.80% lower than the same period last year. In July 2025, the output was 81.96 tons, up 6.73 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to July was 32.51 tons or 5.39% lower than the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar is 221.18 tons, up 10.12 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.39% lower than the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.12% higher than the same period last year. The calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 54.85 tons, down 0.75 tons from last week, still at a high level [14] - Strategy: Due to the current wide - range and irregular market fluctuations, investment positions are advised to wait and see, while hedging positions can still participate at appropriate times [15] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of August 7, 2025, the Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot market price is 5950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week and 450 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures主力 (SM509) closes at 6064 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from last week and 440 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the basis is 76 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 1.25%, at a neutral historical level [20] 3.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: As of August 7, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remains low. Inner Mongolia's profit is - 246 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan/ton from last week and down 15 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is - 226 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan/ton from last week and up 122 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Guangxi's is - 446 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from last week and up 114 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [25] - Cost: As of August 7, 2025, the main production area's electricity price remains stable. The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia (excluding depreciation) is 6066 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from last week and up 335 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is 6026 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from last week and up 228 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Guangxi's is 6346 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from last week and up 286 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [30] - Manganese ore import: In June, the manganese ore import volume was 268 tons, down 25.95 tons from the previous month and up 54.01 tons from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 1446 tons, a cumulative increase of 48.52 tons or 3.47% [33] - Manganese ore inventory: As of August 2, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 438.5 tons, down 11 tons from the previous period [36] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of August 7, 2025, Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output is 19.58 tons, up 0.5 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 4.80% lower than the same period last year. In July 2025, the output was 81.96 tons, up 6.73 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to July was 32.51 tons or 5.39% lower than the same period last year [44] - Demand: As of August 7, 2025, Steel Union's weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon is 12.52 tons, up 0.15 tons from last week. The weekly output of rebar is 221.18 tons, up 10.12 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.39% lower than the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.12% higher than the same period last year. In June 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber was 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and down 842 tons from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber was 509 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 772 tons or 1.49% [61] 3.5 Inventory - Explicit inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 54.85 tons, down 0.75 tons from last week, still at a high level. Among them, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises under Steel Union's caliber is 16.15 tons, down 0.25 tons from the previous period [69][72] - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days from the previous month, and the steel mill inventory available days decreased significantly, at a historical low [75] 3.6 Graphical Trend - In July, the manganese silicon futures price continued the oscillating rebound trend since June. After the middle of the month, the price accelerated upwards and then entered a disorderly wide - range oscillation stage, with a monthly amplitude of 848 yuan/ton or 15.18% and a final increase of 330 yuan/ton or 5.84%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. The daily K - line is loose and disorderly. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the support around the rebound trend line and 5850 yuan/ton, and the resistance around the previous high of 6436 yuan/ton (for the weighted index). It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times [80] Ferrosilicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: The daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.12% higher than the same period last year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 47.46 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.92 tons or 5.80%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.25 tons or 10.11%. The calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.90 tons, down 0.17 tons from the previous period, and the inventory level remains at a high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week and up 650 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures主力 contract (SF509) closes at 5834 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan/ton from last week and up 564 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the basis is 166 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.77%, at a relatively high historical level. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week and up 227 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is 43 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week and up 397 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Qinghai's is 135 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week and up 637 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month. The calculated production cost in the main production areas remains basically stable. Steel Union's weekly ferrosilicon output is 10.91 tons, up 0.47 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 0.17% higher than the same period last year. In July 2025, the ferrosilicon output is 44.67 tons, up 3.26 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to July is 0.56 tons or 0.18% lower than the same period last year [94] - Strategy: Due to the wide - range and irregular market fluctuations, it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. In the future, ferrosilicon and the entire black sector may face a marginal weakening of demand. Pay attention to changes in downstream terminal demand and whether the state introduces relevant demand - supporting measures [95] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of August 7, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week and up 650 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures主力 contract (SF509) closes at 5834 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan/ton from last week and up 564 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the basis is 166 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.77%, at a relatively high historical level [100] 3.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: As of August 7, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week and up 227 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is 43 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week and up 397 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Qinghai's is 135 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week and up 637 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [105] - Cost: As of August 7, 2025, the electricity price in the main production areas remains stable. The calculated production cost in the main production areas remains basically stable. The cost in Inner Mongolia is 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week and up 123 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week and down 97 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Qinghai's is 5265 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week and down 337 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [111] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of August 7, 2025, Steel Union's weekly ferrosilicon output is 10.91 tons, up 0.47 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 0.17% higher than the same period last year. In July 2025, the ferrosilicon output is 44.67 tons, up 3.26 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to July is 0.56 tons or 0.18% lower than the same period last year [116] - Demand: As of August 7, 2025, the daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.12% higher than the same period last year. In June 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and down 842 tons from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 509 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 772 tons or 1.49%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 47.46 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.92 tons or 5.80%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.25 tons or 10.11% [125] 3.5 Inventory - Explicit inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.90 tons, down 0.17 tons from the previous period, and the inventory level remains at a high level in the same period [139] - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of ferrosilicon in steel mills is 14.25 days, down 1.13 days from the previous month, and the steel mill raw material inventory decreased significantly, at a historical low [142] 3.6 Graphical Trend - In July, the ferrosilicon futures price continued the oscillating rebound trend since June. After the middle of the month, the price accelerated upwards and then entered a disorderly wide - range oscillation stage, with a monthly amplitude of 1112 yuan/ton or 21.27% and a final increase of 420 yuan/ton or 7.85%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. The daily K - line is loose and disorderly. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the support around 5600 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton, and the resistance around the previous high of 6340 yuan/ton (for the weighted index). It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times [148]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamental situation of the black building materials market remains weak, and the futures price may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand repair rhythm and the cost - side support for the finished product price need to be focused on [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment is released, the market capital divergence increases, and the price is expected to gradually move closer to the real fundamentals. It is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize the opportunity according to their own situation [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3203 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day, with a registered warehouse receipt of 85034 tons and a main contract position of 1.760703 million lots, down 55323 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3401 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.324%), with a registered warehouse receipt of 57174 tons and a main contract position of 1.45476 million lots, up 20824 lots [2]. - **Market Situation**: The rebar speculative demand decreased significantly with the price decline, resulting in inventory accumulation; the hot - rolled coil demand increased slightly, the output rose rapidly, and the inventory increased slightly. The current inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 0.51% (+ 4.00), with a position change of - 9550 lots to 410,000 lots. The weighted position was 943,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.81 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.02% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to rise, the FMG shipment volume increased significantly, the Brazilian shipment volume decreased slightly, and the non - mainstream country shipment volume dropped to a low level this year. The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 1st, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.27% at 5962 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.25% at 5682 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Situation**: Last week, the prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fluctuated widely. It is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. Fundamentally, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are facing the problems of over - capacity, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8500 yuan/ton, down 2.97% (- 260), with a position change of - 18592 lots to 194340 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2509) closed at 49200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% (+ 70), with a position change of - 16227 lots to 110762 lots [13][14]. - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon still has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand. After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price may weaken. Polysilicon prices are affected by industry capacity integration expectations and enterprise price - holding strategies, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 22 yuan to 1245 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased by 3.87% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1240 yuan, with a slight increase in inventory [17][18]. - **Market Situation**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, the double - coke futures have strongly rebounded, speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, spot liquidity has tightened, coal enterprises have raised prices, and coking profits are under pressure. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. This week, iron ore has strongly rebounded, squeezing immediate steel profits, but steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little willingness to cut pig iron production, and the procurement demand for coal and coke is strong. Speculative and rigid demand support the double - coke futures and spot prices. The market's expectation of Supply - side 2.0 is intensifying, and the short - term futures may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long term, the sharp rise in furnace materials threatens steel mills' profitability, high pig iron production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined, and inventory accumulation is accelerating. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity of coal and coke [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - Coke Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 1030 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1350 - 1800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. Double - Coke Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For the arbitrage scenario of inter - month spread, with no spot exposure, it is recommended to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread (jm2509&jm2601), sell at the suggested entry range of (- 40, - 30) [3]. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On July 23, 2025, compared with July 22, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of rebar remained unchanged at 86,534 tons; hot - rolled coil decreased by 598 tons to 58,951 tons; iron ore decreased by 200 lots to 3,100 lots; coking coal decreased by 500 lots to 0 lots; coke remained unchanged at 760 lots; ferrosilicon remained unchanged at 22,150 sheets; and ferromanganese decreased by 523 sheets to 77,972 sheets [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Supply - side 2.0 has disturbed market sentiment, and the market has a good bullish atmosphere. Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100, and it is difficult to reduce pig iron production in the off - season. There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. Coking plants are suffering serious losses and there is still an expectation of price increases [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production beyond expectations. The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. The shipment of imported coal has increased, and the subsequent port - arrival pressure is increasing [6]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - A large amount of data on coal and coke futures and spot prices, including basis, cost, price differences between different contracts, and various profit data, are provided. For example, on July 23, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian No. 5) was 1008 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 128.0 yuan/ton; the immediate coking profit was - 19 yuan/ton [6][7][8]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-23 氧化铝的仓单博弈仍在继续 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20940元/吨，较上一交易日上涨50元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌40元/吨至50元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20750元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下 跌50元/吨至-120元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20910元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌25元/吨至45元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-22日沪铝主力合约开于20850元/吨，收于20900元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨155元/ 吨，涨幅0.75%，最高价达20955元/吨，最低价达到20790元/吨。全天交易日成交153418手，较上一交易日减 少67236手，全天交易日持仓330897手，较上一交易日增加13990手。 库存方面，截止2025-07-21，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存49.8万吨。截止2025-07-22，LME铝库存438450 吨，较前一交易日增加4025吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-22 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3225元/吨，山东价格录得3 ...