Core Insights - The average price of unleaded gasoline in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level since 2021, with some regions seeing prices below $3 per gallon [1][3] - Nearly 110 million Americans are expected to choose road travel during the holiday season [1][7] Price Trends - Current fuel prices have decreased by approximately 7% compared to a month ago and have plummeted about 43% from the peak in mid-2022, when prices approached $5 per gallon [6][12] - The drop in gasoline prices coincides with the peak travel season, with over 122 million Americans projected to travel at least 50 miles from home between December 20 and January 1, marking a historical high [7][12] Consumer Behavior - The decline in gasoline prices may alleviate some of the inflationary pressures faced by consumers in other areas during the holiday season [13] - A survey indicates that just over 40% of respondents plan to cut back on holiday spending this year, an increase of 6 percentage points from last year, with 46% attributing this to high prices of various goods [13] Regional Price Disparities - The nationwide drop in gasoline prices masks significant regional price differences, with states like Hawaii and California still exceeding $4 per gallon, while Oklahoma's prices are below $2.30 per gallon [13]

So, should investors still expect another strong year ahead. Well, joining us now is unlimited CEO and CIO Bob Elliot. Bob, it's great to have you on.Actually, want to start right there with that BFA survey. Um, because as Mike Sani has pointed out many times before, when you see this much optimism in a survey like this, it tends to be a contrarian a contrarian indicator. Your thoughts.>> Well, I one of my favorite parts about that survey is highlighting that essentially all bears are dead in the market. Uh ...

核心要点 美国消费者新闻与商业频道全美经济调查显示，今年圣诞季民众外出采购礼品时，通胀问题似乎正在冲 淡大家的节日喜悦。 该调查发现，商品价格高企已成为影响消费者开支金额与消费渠道的主要因素，这表明过去数年的通胀 压力，以及关税政策导致的进口商品价格上涨，正让消费者在结账时切实感受到压力。 这项针对全美 1000 名民众开展的调查（误差幅度为正负 3.1%）显示，商品价格高企不仅是美国人缩减 开支的首要原因，更首次成为部分民众增加开支的主因。 在计划缩减开支的人群中，46% 表示原因是商品价格过高，这一比例较 2024 年调查上升 10 个百分 点。更值得关注的是，在计划增加开支的人群中，36% 称涨价是他们多花钱的原因，较去年上升 11 个 百分点。过去六年里，大多数美国人表示增加开支是因为收入提高、经济形势向好；而缩减开支则是由 于收入减少或看衰经济。 美国消费者新闻与商业 频道全美经济调查 负责本次调查的民主党民调机构 —— 哈特研究公司合伙人杰伊・坎贝尔表示："近 70% 的受访者认为 当前物价水平更高，且物价对增支和减支两类人群的影响程度，均达到了前所未有的水平。" 民生成本问题显然正牵动着消费者的 ...

Core Insights - Despite an uncertain economic outlook in the U.S., consumer enthusiasm for discounts led to a record number of shoppers during the Thanksgiving weekend [1][2] Group 1: Shopping Trends - Approximately 202.9 million U.S. consumers shopped from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, surpassing the NRF's previous forecast of 186.9 million and setting a new record since tracking began in 2017 [2][3] - The strong consumer turnout is seen as a positive indicator for the holiday shopping season, with 202.9 million shoppers exceeding the previous record of 200.4 million set in 2023 [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Promotions and discounts were key drivers for consumer shopping, with incentives such as free shipping and limited-time offers motivating purchases [4] - Even financially constrained households prioritize holiday spending by cutting back on other areas like entertainment and travel [5] Group 3: Shopping Channels - Both online and in-store shopping saw growth, with 129.5 million consumers shopping in physical stores (up 3%) and 134.9 million shopping online (up 9%) during the five-day period [6] - Adobe Analytics reported that online sales on Cyber Monday reached $14.25 billion, a 7.1% increase, with total online sales from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday amounting to $44.2 billion, up 7.7% [7] Group 4: Retail Outlook - The strong start to the holiday shopping season has led retailers to maintain an optimistic outlook for overall sales, with NRF predicting holiday sales between $1.1 trillion and $1.2 trillion, a year-over-year increase of 3.7% to 4.2% [8] - As of Cyber Monday, consumers indicated that approximately 53% of their holiday shopping was still pending, suggesting potential for continued spending [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the complexity of the U.S. economic situation, indicating strong consumer spending data but underlying concerns about demand and consumer behavior shifts [3][6]. Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - On "Cyber Monday" (December 1), U.S. online consumer spending is expected to reach $14.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, contributing to a total of $43.7 billion over the five days surrounding Thanksgiving [3]. - Salesforce reported a similar trend, with "Cyber Monday" sales reaching $13.4 billion, a year-on-year growth of approximately 4% [3]. - In-store sales on "Black Friday" increased by 4.1% compared to last year, according to Mastercard [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Discounts - Retailers have adopted aggressive discount strategies, with discount retailers emerging as the biggest winners this shopping season, attracting significant foot traffic [5]. - Major retailers like Walmart and Target have been more explicit in their discount promotions, indicating a shift in consumer sensitivity to prices, even among wealthier shoppers [5][10]. - Amazon has offered substantial discounts on high-value items, with reductions of 30%, 50%, and even 60% on various products [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Inflation - The increase in consumer spending is partly driven by rising prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing an inflation rate of 3% as of September [9]. - Retail volume growth has been low at approximately 0.3% year-to-date, indicating that higher prices are leading to a decrease in the quantity of goods purchased [9]. - Significant price increases were noted in categories affected by tariffs, with home goods prices rising by 24% during "Black Friday" [9]. Group 4: Income Disparities in Consumer Spending - There is a notable divergence in consumer behavior based on income levels, with high-income households continuing to spend robustly, while lower-income consumers are more selective and facing financial pressures [10]. - High-income consumers (earning $170,000 and above) have increased their spending by over 10% this year, contrasting with lower-income groups whose spending has fallen below pre-pandemic levels [9][10]. - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book indicates that middle and low-income consumers are increasingly seeking discounts and promotions due to financial strain [10].

Core Insights - The consumer discretionary sector has faced challenges in 2025, with a year-to-date gain of only 0.51%, marking it as the second-worst performing sector in the S&P 500, only behind consumer staples which is down 0.90% [3][4] - Holiday spending in the United States is projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, with estimates between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, representing a 3.7% increase from 2024 [4][6] - The VanEck Retail ETF (NASDAQ:RTH) has shown nearly 11% gain in 2025, outperforming the overall consumer discretionary sector, and provides exposure to major retail companies [5][6] Consumer Discretionary Sector Performance - The consumer discretionary sector has struggled due to tariffs, inflation, and a weak U.S. dollar, leading consumers to prioritize essential goods over discretionary spending [2][3] - The trends of underperformance are expected to continue into 2026, although the holiday season may present short-term opportunities for recovery [3][4] Holiday Spending Projections - The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that holiday spending will reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, marking a significant milestone in consumer spending [4][6] - This increase in holiday spending is anticipated to provide a potential boost to the consumer discretionary sector as the year ends [6] Investment Opportunities - The VanEck Retail ETF aims to replicate the performance of the MVIS® US Listed Retail 25 Index, which includes companies involved in various retail sectors [5] - The ETF's top holdings include major companies like Amazon, Walmart, and Costco, which together account for nearly 38% of the fund's portfolio, positioning it well for potential gains during the holiday season [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the vibrant consumption market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, indicating a strong economic recovery and consumer confidence [1] - The cross-regional movement of people reached 336 million during the first day of the holiday, and the box office exceeded 1 billion yuan on the fourth day, showcasing significant consumer activity [1] - New supply is creating new demand, with innovative tourism and cultural experiences being introduced across various regions, such as the "hot pot special train" in Chongqing and "watermelon lanterns" in Zhejiang [1] Group 2 - The holiday consumption reflects both the revitalization of traditional industries and the robust growth of emerging sectors, indicating a diverse and dynamic economic landscape [1] - Continuous emergence of new growth points in the domestic market is supported by numerous enterprises enhancing their supply chains and upgrading their industries [1] - Policies from central to local governments are effectively stimulating consumption, demonstrating a strategic approach to economic recovery [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of Shenzhen's consumer market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with significant growth in various sectors [1] Group 2 - Automotive sales revenue increased by 26.7% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles growing by 24.1% [1] - Jewelry sales revenue surged by 57.7% year-on-year, driven by rising gold prices and the traditional wedding season [1] - Cultural and artistic service sales revenue grew by 2.7% year-on-year, with performing arts services increasing by 3.9% [1] - Nightclub sales revenue experienced a remarkable increase of 6.2 times [1] - Sports service sales revenue saw a substantial growth of 113.3% year-on-year, fueled by high-profile sports events and the upcoming 15th National Games [1]

Core Insights - The report from "WeChat Pai" highlights that Changsha ranks as the tenth highest spending city in China, excluding the four major cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1][2]. Spending Trends - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday period, Changsha's total sales of goods and services reached 27 billion yuan, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the provincial average [2]. - The sales of goods amounted to 13.54 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, while service sales reached 13.47 billion yuan, growing by 11.2% [2]. Tourism and Visitor Statistics - The city welcomed approximately 10.8 million tourists during the 8-day holiday, reflecting a 13.39% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - Surrounding areas such as Changsha County and Liuyang City saw a 62% increase in visitor numbers, with rural tourism spots experiencing a 120% rise in homestay bookings [3]. New Business Developments - Over 130 new stores opened in Changsha during the holiday, and more than 20 events were organized for first exhibitions and showcases [4]. - The average daily foot traffic at duty-free shops exceeded 5,500 visitors, and the Changsha Fenshan Outlets became a popular destination for holiday shoppers [4]. Youth Engagement and Events - Youth-driven events such as the 7th Changsha City Coffee Festival attracted over 30,000 participants, indicating a vibrant youth consumer market [4]. - High-traffic activities like sports events, concerts, and anime exhibitions were held, with nearly 200 merchants collaborating on promotional activities that leveraged ticket sales for discounts [5]. Digital Engagement - The "Changsha Hot Players" campaign on Douyin (TikTok) generated over 100 million views, showcasing the significant role of youth consumption in driving market growth [5].

Group 1: Travel and Mobility - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday from October 1 to October 8, the total cross-regional mobility reached 2.432 billion trips, with a daily average of 304 million trips, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2% and a 30.8% increase compared to 2019 [2] - Self-driving travel saw a significant increase, with average passenger volume growth rates for non-commercial small cars, water transport, civil aviation, commercial highways, and railways at 7.1%, 4.2%, 3.4%, 2.9%, and 2.6% respectively compared to 2024 [3] - The civil aviation market experienced a 3.3% increase in daily average passenger flights compared to last year, with international flights recovering to 92.9% of 2019 levels, primarily focused on Southeast Asia and East Asia [5] Group 2: Consumer Spending - Overall consumer spending showed a moderate recovery, with average daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increasing by 4.5% year-on-year during the holiday [9] - Service consumption outperformed goods consumption, with service consumption growing by 7.6% compared to 3.9% for goods [9] - The number of payment transactions processed by UnionPay and other platforms increased by approximately 30%, with transaction amounts rising by about 16% during the holiday [9] Group 3: Tourism and Local Consumption - Domestic tourism saw 888 million trips, with total spending reaching 809 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.01% [13] - The average tourism spending per person was 911 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.55% year-on-year, but an improvement compared to earlier holidays [16] - Key scenic spots experienced significant visitor growth, with popular destinations like Huangshan and Emei Mountain seeing increases in visitor numbers and ticket revenue [22][23] Group 4: Local Consumption Trends - The restaurant sector showed stable performance, with key retail and catering enterprises reporting a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales during the holiday [25] - The film industry, however, faced challenges, with box office revenue for the National Day period at 1.835 billion yuan, a decline of 13% year-on-year [27] - The average ticket price for films decreased by 9.4%, indicating a soft performance in the cinema sector [31] Group 5: Summary and Structural Highlights - The overall consumption data during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday indicated steady growth, although some sectors showed a decline compared to the May Day holiday [32] - Key structural highlights include the rising popularity of self-driving travel, a strong recovery in international flight numbers, and improved tourism spending per capita compared to earlier holidays [32]