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熊园:年度策略——2026年政策展望
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-26 05:41
Core Viewpoint - The report outlines an optimistic economic outlook for 2026, emphasizing a proactive and expansionary policy stance to ensure a strong start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" with a GDP growth target around 5% [1][4][41] Policy Perspective - The main policy tone for 2026 is set to be positive and expansionary, with a focus on ensuring a good start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][4] - Key strategies include promoting domestic demand, stabilizing real estate, and planning new major infrastructure projects [1][5] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated in 2026 [2][12] - It is projected that there may be 1-2 reserve requirement ratio cuts of 50-100 basis points and 1-2 interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points [12][15] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is anticipated to be proactive and expansionary, with a projected fiscal deficit rate around 4% and special bonds reaching approximately 5 trillion [2][30] - The total fiscal expenditure is expected to reach 43 trillion, reflecting an increase of 1.13 trillion year-on-year [30][29] Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2026 is likely to remain around 5%, with quarterly growth rates projected at 5.2%, 5.0%, 5.1%, and 4.9% respectively [4][41] - Inflation is expected to remain low, with a projected annual deflation index of around 0.1% [4] Investment Focus - The focus will be on expanding domestic demand, particularly through consumer spending, real estate stabilization, and infrastructure investment [5][29] - Specific measures to boost consumption include extending the "old-for-new" policy and enhancing service consumption [5][29] Structural Reforms - Structural reforms will continue to be emphasized, particularly in enhancing the quality of life and addressing demographic challenges [8][41] - The government aims to optimize the allocation of resources towards human investment and social welfare [8][29] Key Events Timeline - A series of important economic meetings and reports are scheduled throughout 2026, including the Central Economic Work Conference and the National People's Congress [3][4]
大力提振消费 夯实发展根基
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-11-21 01:32
Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes boosting consumption as a key driver for sustainable economic growth and improving the quality of life for citizens, especially in the context of a complex global economic environment and domestic economic transformation [1] Group 1: Implementation of Consumption Boosting Actions - The government will implement targeted actions to stimulate consumption through a combination of policies aimed at enhancing market vitality [2] - Focus on increasing employment and income, particularly for key groups such as recent graduates and migrant workers, to enhance consumer capacity [2] - Increase public service spending in areas like education and healthcare to reduce the financial burden on residents, encouraging them to spend more [2] Group 2: Development of International Consumption Centers - The plan includes cultivating international consumption center cities to attract global quality consumption resources and enhance the national image [3] - Improvement of urban consumption infrastructure and introduction of international brands to meet consumer demand for global products [3] - Expansion of inbound consumption by optimizing the environment for international tourists, including simplifying visa processes and enhancing payment options [3] Group 3: Direct Consumer Benefits through Inclusive Policies - The government will increase funding for consumer welfare initiatives, such as issuing consumption vouchers and providing subsidies for upgrading old products [4] - Policies will target high-demand sectors like dining and tourism to stimulate market recovery [4] - Removal of unreasonable restrictions on consumption, such as easing car purchase limits, to unleash consumer potential [4] Group 4: Strengthening Consumer Rights Protection - Enhancing consumer rights protection is crucial for boosting consumption, with plans to improve legislation and market regulation [5] - Establishing efficient complaint resolution mechanisms to lower the cost of consumer rights protection [6] - Promoting consumer education to foster informed and responsible consumption behaviors [6]
8000万元消费券撬动5倍消费力 湖南邀请更多商户参与
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-20 12:59
长沙晚报掌上长沙11月20日讯(全媒体记者 刘捷萍)今日,记者从省商务厅获悉,自2025年"乐享湖南· 湘当有惠"消费券发放活动启动以来,财政资金投入与居民消费热情形成良性互动,已累计发放消费券 超8000万元,资金撬动比例高达1:5,有效激发了市场潜力。活动已吸引超过600万人次消费者踊跃参 与,为市场注入了强劲动力。 省商务厅相关负责人介绍,"乐享湖南·湘当有惠"活动是提振消费、惠企利民的重要举措。希望尚未报 名的广大商户,特别是餐饮、加油、家政、美容美发等领域的经营者,能抓住此次机遇,携手为湖南消 费者提供更优质的服务,共同推动全省服务消费提质升级。 参与本次活动的商户将获得多重收益。不仅能直接享受政府消费券带来的额外客流和销售额提升,还能 获得合作平台(支付宝、云闪付、美团、抖音)提供的线上流量支持和宣传曝光,实现"政府补贴+平 台引流"的叠加效应。活动组织方将持续优化服务,为报名商户提供便捷的流程和专属客服支持,让核 销程序更加顺畅。 报名通道持续开放,操作简便。商户可根据自身所属行业,通过支付宝、云闪付、美团、抖音四大平台 指定的线上渠道进行报名。商户可随时报名,报名将持续至最后一轮活动(最后一轮 ...
新指南新在哪?平台反垄断新指南发布:AI定价、生态封禁等八大场景划出合规红线
3 6 Ke· 2025-11-20 07:33
2025年的"双十一"刚刚结束,国家市场监督管理总局就在11月16日发布了《互联网平台反垄断合规指南 (征求意见稿)》(以下简称《新指南》),意见反馈截止日期为2025年11月29日。 《新指南》与今年8月发布的《互联网平台价格行为规则》(以下简称《价格规则》)构成了中国平台 经济监管不断深化的"组合拳",既有协同聚焦,更有层级上的突破。而与2021年的《国务院反垄断委员 会关于平台经济领域的反垄断指南》(以下简称《2021年指南》)相比,《新指南》在深度、广度和精 度上实现了显著升级,尤其对"双十一"期间暴露出的新型竞争问题发出了明确警示。 一、监管定位之辨:《新指南》与《价格规则》的协同与分层 理解《新指南》的新意,首先需厘清其与《价格规则》的关系。二者在规范价格行为上形成合力,但定 位和层级截然不同,形成从普遍规范到重点风险防控的立体监管体系。 从规范的目标来说,《价格规则》规范所有经营者的"普遍法",而《新指南》针对市场力量的"重点 法"。 《价格规则》核心目标是维护基础价格秩序,适用于所有平台和平台内经营者,聚焦于明码标价、促销 透明、禁止价格欺诈等底线要求。它确保价格竞争的基本公平和透明度。《新指 ...
深圳南山发布产业政策 “6+6”Pro max版
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-11-19 10:30
11月18日,南山区举办政策推介会,介绍《南山区支持产业发展"六个券"行动方案》(下称"六个券") 与《南山区支持创新创业"六个一"行动方案2.0版》(下称"六个一"2.0)方案有关情况。 两个政策的出发点都回归到一对最简单的问题:企业需要什么?南山能做些什么?南山区副区长李志娜 在推介会上回答了这一问题:"要让企业更好地把握当下的结构性机遇,在产业升级、科技创新、绿色 转型的赛道中,用好用足政策工具,在企业端降成本,优产品,提效能,转赛道,从而实现逆周期上 扬。""六个一"2.0,是送给每一位自然人的成长礼物,从"欢迎一个人"到"闯出一片天",南山为创业梦 想的助力再次升级;"六个券",则是为法人发展备下的资源锦囊,在企业发展的每一个关键环节提供精 准护航,共同形成"对自然人"与"对法人"双轮驱动、闭环赋能的政策新生态。 "引"力更强,"六个一 "2.0 三大维度再加码 引才,求贤若渴;留才,更用心长久。正是这份紧迫感与诚意,驱动南山在一年内推动"六个一"政策再 升级。此次推出的2.0版,具体围绕"政策延续、服务升温、信心传递"三大维度全面加码,为自然人在 南山创新创业提供量身定制的支持,让更多创业者在南山 ...
瞄准创新创业“人”与“法人” 深圳南山双策齐发
21世纪经济报道记者 陈思琦 深圳报道 11月18日,深圳南山区举行政策推介会,两大政策《南山区支持产业发展"六个券"行动方案》(下 称"六个券")《南山区支持创新创业"六个一"行动方案2.0版》(下称"六个一"2.0)同时发布。 21世纪经济报道记者现场获悉,两份政策面向不同"人":"六个一"2.0为自然人在南山区创新创业提供 量身定制的支持;"六个券"则聚焦"法人",覆盖企业研发、采购、生产、推广、消费、出海六大核心环 节。 作为"广东经济第一区",南山区2024年GDP超9500亿元,连续12年居广东省区(县)第一。今年前三季 度,南山GDP达7428.12亿元,同比增长5.8%,朝着"万亿城区"目标稳步迈进。 "要让企业更好地把握当下的结构性机遇,在产业升级、科技创新、绿色转型的赛道中,用好用足政策 工具,在企业端降成本,优产品,提效能,转赛道,从而实现逆周期上扬。"南山区副区长李志娜表 示。 三大维度加码"六个一" 今年3月,《南山区支持创新创业"六个一"行动方案》印发,从"一个人""一间房""一张桌""一笔钱""一 场景""一条龙"六个方面推出15条创新举措,直击青年人才、初创企业住房、融资、场景 ...
“券”力十足,“引”力更强,南山 “六个券”+“六个一 ”2.0双策齐发!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-19 04:55
Core Insights - The article discusses the launch of two new policy initiatives in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, aimed at supporting industrial development and innovation, namely the "Six Coupons" and the upgraded "Six Ones" 2.0 program. These initiatives are designed to address the needs of enterprises and enhance their capabilities in the face of structural opportunities in industrial upgrading, technological innovation, and green transformation [1][10]. Group 1: "Six Ones" 2.0 Program - The "Six Ones" 2.0 program focuses on three dimensions: policy continuity, enhanced services, and confidence building, providing tailored support for entrepreneurs in Nanshan [3]. - The program lowers entry barriers by relaxing requirements related to age, education, and company establishment for key industry talents and entrepreneurial teams, aiming to benefit more innovators [3][5]. - Previous data indicates that 13,515 university students received a 520 yuan experience coupon, while 1,351 graduates received up to 50,000 yuan in living subsidies, and 74 key industry talents received up to 400,000 yuan in funding [3]. Group 2: "Six Coupons" Initiative - The "Six Coupons" initiative offers six specialized subsidy tools: model coupons, interest subsidies, technology transformation coupons, traffic coupons, insurance coupons, and consumption coupons, designed to support enterprises throughout their development cycle [6][8]. - The model coupon provides up to 1 million yuan for AI innovation applications, covering 50% of the actual investment in AI products [6]. - Interest subsidies for technology companies can cover up to 50% of loan interest, with a maximum of 500,000 yuan per year for individual companies [6][8]. Group 3: Expanded Support and Services - The "Six Ones" 2.0 program now includes support for high-tech enterprises with subsidies up to 1 million yuan and increased backing for open-source ecosystem development, with comprehensive subsidies up to 10 million yuan [5]. - The "Moli Ying" AI ecosystem community has expanded from 50,000 square meters to 100,000 square meters, providing additional support for outstanding graduate enterprises [5]. - The "Ai Nanshan" platform offers a one-stop service for enterprises, integrating over 2,000 services to support businesses from establishment to growth [10][12]. Group 4: Consumer Engagement and Market Activation - The consumption coupon initiative collaborates with platforms like JD.com and Douyin to stimulate consumer spending across various sectors, benefiting over 3 million consumers this year [9]. - The ongoing "Nanshan Year-End Gift" campaign is expected to further boost sales in the automotive and retail sectors, enhancing market vitality [9]. Group 5: Policy Alignment and Strategic Goals - The policies are aligned with national strategies to enhance new productive forces and promote consumption, aiming to create a robust support system for enterprises during economic downturns [12]. - The initiatives are designed to stimulate market vitality and integrate innovation, industry, and talent development, contributing to Shenzhen's goal of becoming a leading modern innovation city [12][14].
洪泽:文商旅体联动,激发消费新动能
Xin Hua Ri Bao· 2025-11-17 22:55
Core Insights - The "Hui Ju Hong Ze · An Xin Le Gou" regional consumption brand in Hongze District is driving a vibrant consumer market by integrating cultural, commercial, tourism, and sports resources [1] Group 1: Consumption Growth Strategies - The implementation of large consumption coupons, such as "1500 minus 200" and "3000 minus 300," has led to significant consumer engagement, resulting in over 300 transactions and more than 1 million yuan in sales [2] - A total of 20 million yuan was invested in consumption vouchers, resulting in over 500 million yuan in consumer spending, achieving a leverage ratio exceeding 25 times [2] - The accommodation sector saw a remarkable return on investment, with hotel occupancy rates reaching 90% during the National Day holiday [2] Group 2: Event-Driven Consumer Engagement - The "Cultural Arts Week" and "Hong BA" basketball league events attracted significant public participation, enhancing the local consumer experience through cash vouchers and promotional activities [3] - The integration of cultural and sports events with commercial promotions has created a mutually beneficial environment, driving both event attendance and retail sales [3] Group 3: Innovative Consumption Mechanisms - The introduction of a "Cultural Tourism to Commercial Conversion" mechanism allows consumers to exchange receipts for discounts at local businesses, effectively creating a closed-loop consumption cycle [4] - This initiative has generated over 800,000 yuan in related consumption during the National Day holiday, extending the consumer reach and increasing purchase frequency [4] - The district plans to continue innovating consumption models and organizing seasonal shopping festivals to sustain economic growth [4]
“京”喜出发,“长”享冰雪 长春冰雪旅游(北京)推介会圆满举行
Sou Hu Wang· 2025-11-17 04:23
初冬的北京寒意渐浓,一场来自北国春城的粉雪,裹挟着长春人与生俱来的热情和奔放,扑面而来! 11月15日,"京"喜出发,"长"享冰雪——长春冰雪旅游(北京)推介会在北京京都信苑饭店盛大启幕。来 自长春市和北京市两地政府领导,行业主管部门负责人,中国旅游协会、中国旅行社协会、中国旅游景 区协会负责人,抖音集团相关领导,长春及北京、天津、河北等地区的旅行商、行业协会代表,国家级 和北京市56家权威媒体代表等150余人齐聚一堂,共商冰雪产业发展,共促区域文旅合作。 现场与会嘉宾纷纷表示,长春的冰雪资源与北京的文化底蕴、市场优势高度互补。此次推介会不仅是冰 雪产品的展示,更是南北文旅对话的桥梁,期待通过两地合作,让更多北京及京津冀市民走进长春,感 受冰雪魅力。 两地对话:冰雪"冷资源"联动京津冀"热市场" 作为连续多年全国"冰雪旅游十佳城市",新雪季长春市将以"一心两园六场"为核心,构建全域冰雪旅游 新版图。 长春市委副书记、市长顾刚在致辞中表示,"当前,长春市正下决心将文旅消费打造成为新的支柱产 业,冬季冰雪无疑是重中之重。今年新雪季,我们将突出'四时俱好、冬雪长春''学滑雪到长春'主题, 统筹推进产品提升、服务优化 ...
多地密集部署 护航四季度经济稳增长
Group 1 - The core focus of the recent economic work deployment across various regions is to boost consumption and accelerate major project investments to achieve annual economic targets [1][2] - Experts indicate that the targeted and coordinated policy efforts in key areas such as consumption and effective investment are expected to support steady economic growth in the fourth quarter, aiming for a 5% annual growth target [2][3] Group 2 - Multiple regions have introduced measures to stimulate consumption, including the issuance of consumption vouchers and support for key consumption sectors, with a focus on the service industry [3][4] - Specific initiatives include Sichuan's distribution of consumption vouchers from October 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026, and Hunan's issuance of 100 million yuan in consumption vouchers, with 65% allocated to the catering sector [3][4] Group 3 - Local governments are prioritizing investment in key projects to bolster economic stability, with significant investments planned in transportation, water conservancy, energy, and industrial sectors [5][6] - For instance, Beijing plans to promote urban renewal projects with a total investment of no less than 200 billion yuan by the end of the year, while Hunan aims to exceed its annual investment targets for key projects [6][7] Group 4 - The introduction of new policy financial tools, amounting to 500 billion yuan, is aimed at supplementing project capital, particularly for projects that are about to start or are currently underway [6][7] - These financial tools are expected to play a significant role in stimulating infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter, enhancing the overall investment landscape [7]