Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the **U.S. economy** and its inflation dynamics, particularly focusing on the **Consumer Price Index (CPI)** and the impact of tariffs and trade relations with China. Key Points and Arguments 1. **CPI Trends**: In May, the core goods CPI experienced a month-on-month decline of -0.04%, indicating reduced upward pressure on prices, potentially due to prior inventory replenishment and recent easing of tariffs [1][4] 2. **Price Performance**: Prices for clothing and communication goods were notably weak, while wholesale prices continued to rise sharply, suggesting that wholesalers absorbed some tariff costs [4][5] 3. **Inflation in China-Dependent Products**: Prices for entertainment products, sports goods, and toys, which are heavily reliant on China, continued to rise, with toys showing a month-on-month inflation rate of 1.35% [6] 4. **Core Services and Rent**: Rent growth has slowed, but forward-looking indicators suggest limited downward space for future rent increases, indicating resilience in core service inflation [7] 5. **Trade War Implications**: The escalation of the trade war could lead to increased goods prices, potentially harming consumer purchasing power in services and discretionary spending [7] 6. **Market Reactions**: Current CPI data is stable, with no further escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, leading to a slight increase in interest rate cut expectations and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [8] 7. **Future Inflation Risks**: Energy prices have been a significant drag on inflation, with global manufacturing PMI showing weakness and OPEC+ discussions on production cuts affecting oil prices [3] 8. **Consumer Spending Concerns**: There are risks of weakened demand in consumer services related to travel and leisure, as prices in these sectors have been soft over the past two months [7] Additional Important Insights - **Tariff Impact on Prices**: The transmission of tariff costs to consumers is expected to take about 2 to 4 months, indicating a lag in the impact of tariffs on retail prices [5] - **Economic Resilience**: Despite the potential for rate cuts, the U.S. economy shows resilience, and the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and tax cuts continues to pose risks for interest rate volatility [2][8] - **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields will become clearer once the effects of tariffs and tax cuts are fully absorbed by the economy [2][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the U.S. was lower than expected, with overall CPI growth declining from 0.2% in April to 0.1% in May, and core CPI dropping from 0.24% to 0.13% [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet fully materialized, as companies have been absorbing costs and utilizing pre-purchased inventory to mitigate the effects of tariffs [1][2] - The market maintains expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice after September, despite the lower-than-expected inflation data [1][4] Group 2 - The analysis highlights that many retailers are selling goods purchased before the implementation of tariffs at lower prices, which temporarily alleviates inflationary pressures [2] - The core inflation year-on-year growth rate remained at 2.8%, indicating that inflation concerns have not dissipated, and a potential price increase may be observed in the coming months [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have increased, with the probability of a rate cut in September rising from 53.5% to 61.6% following the CPI data release [4][6] Group 3 - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with the one-year inflation expectation increasing to 6.6%, the highest since November 2023, driven by uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to adjust its inflation forecasts slightly upward in the upcoming June meeting, but may adopt a more hawkish stance due to stable labor market conditions [7][8] - Analysts believe that the current inflation data is a positive sign for the Federal Reserve, but they will likely wait for more data before making significant decisions regarding interest rates [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, stated that there has not yet been observed a transmission effect of tariffs in the price data [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Canada is closely monitoring price data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - Current economic indicators do not show significant changes attributed to tariff implementations [1] - The central bank remains vigilant regarding potential future impacts of tariffs on the economy [1]

Core Insights - The current market focus is on the narrative of tariff easing, with the upcoming CPI data expected to reflect the early effects of tariffs, although the majority of the impact may manifest in June and July [1][4] CPI Predictions - The U.S. April CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a decrease of -0.1% in March. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is also projected to increase by 0.3% [1][3] - Year-on-year, the April CPI is anticipated to remain at 2.4%, consistent with March, while the core CPI is also expected to hold steady at 2.4% [1][3] Tariff Impact Analysis - Deutsche Bank suggests that it may be too early to see the tariff price increases reflected in the April CPI, recommending close monitoring of categories with high import volumes such as clothing and household goods [2][4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% universal tariff could raise inflation by approximately 0.3 percentage points in the short term, with core inflation potentially rising to above 3% [3][4] Key Components of CPI - Goldman Sachs predicts that tariffs will exert moderate upward pressure on sensitive categories, contributing an additional 0.06 percentage points to core inflation, particularly affecting clothing (+0.8%), furniture (+0.3%), education (+0.4%), and communication (+0.3%) prices [3][4] - The report will include a semi-annual update on health insurance, with expectations of negative inflation for health insurance in the coming months [3] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - The inflation rebound driven by tariffs poses a challenge to the Federal Reserve's policy path, with officials indicating they will not lower interest rates until they perceive that tariff-induced inflation has peaked [6] - Market sentiment may become insensitive to CPI surprises due to the prevailing optimism regarding tariff easing, with any unexpected CPI data potentially being interpreted in a non-symmetrical manner [6][7]

金十数据5月13日讯，市场和美联储密切关注的美国CPI数据将于北京时间今晚20:30公布。机构指出，4 月通胀可能加速，关税传导效应或初现端倪。届时金银和汇市恐剧烈波动，点击查看更多前瞻... 相关链接 今晚20:30 CPI风暴来袭 ...