Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' economic outlook report predicts that by the end of this year, American consumers will feel the full impact of tariff policies, leading to significant political backlash from President Trump [2] - The effective tariff rate has surged from 3% at the beginning of the year to 18%, indicating a rapid acceleration in price transmission mechanisms as companies deplete their buffer inventories [2] - Economists warn that the current tariff increases are unprecedented since World War II, creating substantial uncertainty regarding cost transmission [2][3] Group 2 - The inflation transmission is not limited to goods but has also affected service sector input prices, with core service prices showing unexpected strength [3] - The "sticky price CPI" indicator compiled by the Cleveland Fed has reached an annualized growth rate of 3.8%, the highest since May 2024, significantly outpacing the more volatile food and energy prices [3] - Current tariff policies could potentially reduce U.S. GDP by 1% and increase inflation by 1% to 1.5%, with core CPI projected to reach 3.5% by year-end [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces dual pressures from rising inflation expectations and weak labor market signals, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining a wait-and-see approach until 2025 [4] - Retailers are adjusting pricing strategies in response to rising costs, and some companies are considering relocating production lines to avoid tariff risks [5] - The ongoing economic debate reflects a broader examination of the resilience of the U.S. economy amid global value chain restructuring and cost reallocation [5]

长期以来，市场期待的关税传导效应终于显现。六月，包括家电、服装及娱乐用品在内的核心商品价格出现上涨，这是自二月以来的首次增长。 美银强调，此次报告为关税成本向消费者转移提供了确凿证据。具体来看，家庭用品价格环比增长0.98%，创下自2022年1月以来的最大涨幅；服 装价格上涨0.43%；娱乐商品价格则上涨0.77%。与此同时，核心服务价格却呈现下降趋势，如酒店住宿与机票价格连续数月走低，反映出消费 需求的疲软。 巴克莱银行估计，美国的贸易加权有效关税率已达到14%至15%，远高于去年同期的2.5%，并预测约有50%的关税成本将最终反映在价格上，这 一预测与美联储的调查结果相吻合。 近期，关税的连锁反应逐渐浮出水面，为美国六月的消费者物价指数（CPI）数据增添了一抹复杂色彩。尽管表面数字显示增长略显疲态，但深 入剖析却揭示了数据背后的一系列关键结构性变迁。 六月份，核心CPI环比增长仅0.2%，这一数字略低于市场预期。然而，值得注意的是，核心商品价格出现了自二月以来的首次显著上扬，尤其是 家庭用品与服装等受关税直接影响的产品类别，价格攀升尤为明显。金融界的各大机构纷纷预测，核心个人消费支出平减指数（PCE）的表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The inflation effects of Trump's tariffs are becoming evident, with the latest data showing an acceleration in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June, indicating that tariff costs are being passed from businesses to consumers, potentially leading to stagflation in the U.S. economy [1][5][9] Economic Indicators - In June, the CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May, and a month-on-month rise of 0.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][6] - The "super core inflation," which excludes food, energy, and housing, increased by 0.12% month-on-month in June, significantly higher than the previous two months' increases of 0.01% and 0.07% [1][6] Tariff Impact - The tariffs introduced on April 2 have begun to affect prices, particularly in sectors like furniture and toys, which are sensitive to tariff changes [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs on inflation was initially muted due to inventory buffers, but as these buffers deplete, the inflationary effects will become more pronounced [6][9] Consumer and Business Costs - Goldman Sachs estimates that businesses will pass approximately 70% of the tariff costs onto consumers, with the remaining 30% absorbed by businesses and foreign exporters [7] - The annual inflation expectations among the public have risen to 4.9%, with long-term expectations reaching 3.9%, the highest since 1993 [8] Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. GDP growth is expected to slow significantly, with various institutions revising their forecasts downwards for 2025, indicating a potential growth rate of 1.3% to 1.7% [9][10] - The Federal Reserve may face constraints on its ability to lower interest rates due to rising inflation pressures, with the next potential rate cut not expected until September [9][10]

Core Insights - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a moderate increase, with a month-over-month rise of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, marking a four-month high [1][4] - Core CPI rose by 0.23% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, slightly below expectations [1][4] Inflation Dynamics - The automotive and travel sectors continue to exhibit weakness, contributing to a drag on inflation, while import prices are showing significant upward pressure attributed to tariffs [4][5] - Various imported goods, including home appliances and sports equipment, have seen price increases approaching or exceeding an annualized rate of 10% over the past three months [5] - The report indicates that as companies deplete their pre-stocked inventories and refrain from further profit margin compression, tariff-related price pressures are expected to intensify in the coming months [5] Sector Performance - Healthcare CPI increased by 0.5% in June, and clothing prices rose by 0.4%, reversing declines from May [5] - The travel industry remains weak, with accommodation prices falling short of expectations and airfares rising less than predicted based on high-frequency travel booking data [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious stance due to the structural divergence in inflation dynamics, with potential upward risks remaining [9] - The forecast for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for June is a month-over-month increase of 0.28%, with a year-over-year rise of 2.7% [9]

分析师：关税的传导效应目前仍较为温和 金十数据7月15日讯，加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场部的Katherine Judge表示，我们仍能看到关税上调 前的商品库存所产生的影响。"鉴于企业在关税实施前囤积了库存，且部分成本由利润吸收，关税的传 导效应目前仍较为温和。然而，这些库存正逐渐减少，我们预计未来关税的传导效应将会显现，这也会 使美联储暂时按兵不动。" ...

Core Insights - The U.S. inflation is showing signs of rising again after months of stagnation, driven by increasing import costs and the upcoming release of key economic data, including the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales report [1][5] - Analysts expect the June core CPI to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, marking the largest increase in five months, with a year-over-year increase projected at 2.9%, the first rebound since January [3][4] - The impact of tariffs on domestic prices is a critical concern, as the market seeks to understand how these policies are affecting inflation [3][5] Inflation and Pricing Dynamics - The core CPI's expected increase reflects potential tariff transmission effects, particularly in goods like appliances and furniture, while service prices remain weak [3][4] - The current labor market shows signs of cooling, with slower wage growth making consumers more sensitive to price changes, complicating retailers' decisions on passing costs to consumers [4][5] - The interplay between consumer resilience and pricing pressure is crucial for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, especially with the next policy meeting approaching [4][5] Retail Sales and Economic Growth - Following the CPI data, the U.S. Commerce Department will release June retail sales data, which is expected to show a slight rebound after two months of decline [5] - Weak consumer spending momentum aligns with a cooling job market, and lackluster retail performance could support the narrative of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy [5] - The upcoming CPI and retail sales data will provide a comprehensive view of the U.S. economy's current state, balancing rising inflation pressures against slowing growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that weaker transmission effects of tariffs could impact monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The potential impact of tariffs on monetary policy is highlighted, suggesting that if the transmission effects are weak, it may lead to adjustments in policy decisions [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the **U.S. economy** and its inflation dynamics, particularly focusing on the **Consumer Price Index (CPI)** and the impact of tariffs and trade relations with China. Key Points and Arguments 1. **CPI Trends**: In May, the core goods CPI experienced a month-on-month decline of -0.04%, indicating reduced upward pressure on prices, potentially due to prior inventory replenishment and recent easing of tariffs [1][4] 2. **Price Performance**: Prices for clothing and communication goods were notably weak, while wholesale prices continued to rise sharply, suggesting that wholesalers absorbed some tariff costs [4][5] 3. **Inflation in China-Dependent Products**: Prices for entertainment products, sports goods, and toys, which are heavily reliant on China, continued to rise, with toys showing a month-on-month inflation rate of 1.35% [6] 4. **Core Services and Rent**: Rent growth has slowed, but forward-looking indicators suggest limited downward space for future rent increases, indicating resilience in core service inflation [7] 5. **Trade War Implications**: The escalation of the trade war could lead to increased goods prices, potentially harming consumer purchasing power in services and discretionary spending [7] 6. **Market Reactions**: Current CPI data is stable, with no further escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, leading to a slight increase in interest rate cut expectations and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [8] 7. **Future Inflation Risks**: Energy prices have been a significant drag on inflation, with global manufacturing PMI showing weakness and OPEC+ discussions on production cuts affecting oil prices [3] 8. **Consumer Spending Concerns**: There are risks of weakened demand in consumer services related to travel and leisure, as prices in these sectors have been soft over the past two months [7] Additional Important Insights - **Tariff Impact on Prices**: The transmission of tariff costs to consumers is expected to take about 2 to 4 months, indicating a lag in the impact of tariffs on retail prices [5] - **Economic Resilience**: Despite the potential for rate cuts, the U.S. economy shows resilience, and the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and tax cuts continues to pose risks for interest rate volatility [2][8] - **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields will become clearer once the effects of tariffs and tax cuts are fully absorbed by the economy [2][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the U.S. was lower than expected, with overall CPI growth declining from 0.2% in April to 0.1% in May, and core CPI dropping from 0.24% to 0.13% [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet fully materialized, as companies have been absorbing costs and utilizing pre-purchased inventory to mitigate the effects of tariffs [1][2] - The market maintains expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice after September, despite the lower-than-expected inflation data [1][4] Group 2 - The analysis highlights that many retailers are selling goods purchased before the implementation of tariffs at lower prices, which temporarily alleviates inflationary pressures [2] - The core inflation year-on-year growth rate remained at 2.8%, indicating that inflation concerns have not dissipated, and a potential price increase may be observed in the coming months [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have increased, with the probability of a rate cut in September rising from 53.5% to 61.6% following the CPI data release [4][6] Group 3 - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with the one-year inflation expectation increasing to 6.6%, the highest since November 2023, driven by uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to adjust its inflation forecasts slightly upward in the upcoming June meeting, but may adopt a more hawkish stance due to stable labor market conditions [7][8] - Analysts believe that the current inflation data is a positive sign for the Federal Reserve, but they will likely wait for more data before making significant decisions regarding interest rates [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, stated that there has not yet been observed a transmission effect of tariffs in the price data [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Canada is closely monitoring price data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - Current economic indicators do not show significant changes attributed to tariff implementations [1] - The central bank remains vigilant regarding potential future impacts of tariffs on the economy [1]