Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the proximal supply decreased slightly this week, polyester开工 declined, inventory remained stable, basis weakened month - on - month, and spot processing fees dropped. PX domestic maintenance was implemented, overseas still had shutdowns, PXN strengthened month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits improved, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remained. In the future, downstream profits will improve, the further compression space of TA processing fees is limited when the inventory accumulation slope is not high, and the absolute price is expected to remain strong supported by PX [1]. - For MEG, the proximal domestic oil - based maintenance was implemented, the开工 decreased month - on - month, Iranian plants were restarting, port inventory decreased due to less arrival and improved shipment, downstream inventory levels increased, basis weakened month - on - month, and coal - based benefits slightly shrank. In the future, as Iranian and ethane supplies do not decrease, it will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage with the increase of domestic开工. With the current low inventory and not - low valuation, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the proximal Zhuocheng reduced production, Jixing had maintenance, the开工 dropped to 93.8%, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory slightly increased. On the demand side, the开工 of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory remained stable, finished product inventory continued to accumulate, benefits slightly improved, and staple fiber exports maintained a high growth rate. In the future, there are also production reduction plans for staple fiber, but the implementation of production reduction in the industry needs further follow - up as the inventory and benefit pressure are acceptable, and the processing fees are expected to remain weak [4]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low absolute level, but there was no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Data**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the price of POY fluctuated between 67.1 - 69.1, PX CFR fluctuated between 132 - 271, PTA internal spot price fluctuated between 4890 - 7075, etc. The daily average transaction basis of PTA spot was 2509(+124) [1]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials increased the load of its 3.6 - million - ton plant; Shandong Weilian's 2.5 - million - ton plant had maintenance; Hengli Dalian's 2.2 - million - ton plant restarted [1]. MEG - **Price and Index Data**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the external price of MEG was 850, the internal price fluctuated between 4328 - 4377, the profit was between - 870 - - 837, the total load was 67.2, and the port inventory was 54.5 [4]. - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Yueneng's 400,000 - ton single - line plant had maintenance; Anhui Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton plant restarted [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Data**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the spot price was around 6744, and the market basis was around 08 + 50. The short - fiber profit and pure - polyester yarn profit also changed during this period [4]. - **Device Changes**: Proximally, Zhuocheng reduced production, Jixing had maintenance, and the开工 dropped to 93.8% [4]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Index Data**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, and other types of rubber all changed. For example, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased from 1715 to 1705 [4]. - **Key Spreads**: The spreads such as US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber - NR09 - RU0, RU main contract - NR main contract, etc., also changed during this period [4]. Other Chemical Products - **Ethylene and Pure Benzene**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast) remained at 850, and the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased from 740 to 728 [8]. - **EPS, PS, ABS**: The prices of EPS (East China general material), PS (semi - transparent material), and ABS (0215A) all decreased to varying degrees during this period, and the domestic profits of these products also changed [8][9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report [1][2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team - Date: June 20, 2025 Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Report Core Views - **PTA**: Near - term TA开工 continues to rise, new devices stably increase loads, polyester开工 slightly declines, inventory accumulates, basis remains strong, and spot processing fees weaken. PX domestic开工 declines month - on - month, overseas continues to rise, PXN and structure continue to weaken. Bottleneck in bottle chips may drag down polyester load further. TA is entering the inventory accumulation stage, and opportunities to shrink processing fees on rallies should be noted [2]. - **MEG**: Near - term maintenance resumes,开工 rises significantly, port inventory slightly accumulates with stable arrivals, downstream stocking levels decline, basis weakens significantly, and oil - based benefits are compressed. The fastest port destocking stage is over, transitioning to a balanced and slightly accumulative stage. It is expected to be range - bound, and changes in Iranian imports should be noted [3]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term device operation is stable,开工 remains at 92.1%, sales improve month - on - month, and inventory decreases month - on - month. On the demand side,开工 of polyester yarn declines, raw material stocking increases, finished product inventory accumulates month - on - month, and benefits decline month - on - month. Supply reduction of staple fiber is limited, and benefits may recover due to the decline in polyester开工 caused by bottle chip production cuts. Downstream has no obvious improvement, and processing fees are expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to whether there are further production cuts in the industry [3]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: National explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level but does not show seasonal destocking. Thai cup rubber prices rebound due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. - **Styrene**: No overall view is summarized in the report, only data changes are presented. Group 4: Data Summary by Product PTA | Date | Crude Oil | Naphtha | PX CFR | PTA Domestic Spot | Naphtha Cracking Spread | PTA Processing Spread | PTA Balance Load | PTA Negative Load | Warehouse Receipts + Effective Forecast | TA Basis | Sales | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/13 | 74.2 | 621 | 854 | 5010 | 6975 | 76.39 | 233.0 | 343 | 67 | 85.6 | 83.0 | | 2025/06/16 | 73.2 | 624 | 862 | 5005 | 7030 | 87.35 | 238.0 | 297 | 118 | 85.6 | 83.0 | | 2025/06/17 | 76.5 | 626 | 880 | 5020 | 7030 | 65.25 | 254.0 | 209 | 98 | 85.6 | 83.0 | | 2025/06/18 | 76.7 | 633 | 888 | 5190 | 7130 | 70.92 | 255.0 | 333 | 25 | 85.6 | 83.0 | | 2025/06/19 | 78.9 | 643 | 904 | 5190 | 7120 | 64.66 | 261.0 | 247 | - 3 | 85.6 | 83.0 | | Change | 2.2 | 10 | 16 | 0 | - 10.00 | - 6.26 | 6.0 | - 86 | - 28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | [2] MEG | Date | Northeast Asia Ethylene | MEG FOB Price | MEG Domestic Price | MEG East China Price | MEG Forward Price | MEG Coal - based Profit | MEG Domestic Cash Flow (Ethylene) | MEG Total Load | Coal - based MEG Load | MEG Port Inventory | Non - coal - based Load | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/13 | 790 | 518 | 4400 | 4415 | 4395 | 414 | - 515 | 66.6 | 68.4 | 61.6 | 60 | | 2025/06/16 | 800 | 522 | 4426 | 4440 | 4423 | 414 | - 540 | 66.6 | 68.4 | 61.6 | 60 | | 2025/06/17 | 820 | 522 | 4446 | 4460 | 4445 | 414 | - 616 | 66.6 | 68.4 | 61.6 | 60 | | 2025/06/18 | 830 | 532 | 4529 | 4545 | 4530 | 414 | - 584 | 66.6 | 68.4 | 61.6 | 60 | | 2025/06/19 | 830 | 534 | 4585 | 4602 | 4588 | 414 | - 526 | 66.6 | 68.4 | 61.6 | 60 | | Change | 0 | 2 | 56 | 57 | 58.00 | 0.00 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [3] Polyester Staple Fiber | Date | 1.4D Cotton - type | Low - melting Point Staple Fiber | Primary Hollow | Imitation Large - diameter Chemical Fiber | Pure Polyester Yarn | Polyester - Cotton Yarn | Primary Staple Fiber Load | Recycled Cotton - type Load | Polyester Yarn Operation | Staple Fiber Profit | Pure Polyester Yarn Profit | Cotton - Polyester Staple | Viscose - Polyester Staple | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/13 | 6665 | 7355 | 7150 | 5850 | 12100 | 16500 | 92 | 49 | 67 | - 109 | - 15 | 7990 | 6085 | | 2025/06/16 | 6690 | 7355 | 7150 | 5850 | 12100 | 16500 | 92 | 49 | 67 | - 89 | 10 | 8005 | 6070 | | 2025/06/17 | 6710 | 7355 | 7150 | 5850 | 12100 | 16500 | 92 | 49 | 67 | - 88 | - 10 | 7980 | 6050 | | 2025/06/18 | 6835 | 7585 | 7280 | 5850 | 12100 | 16300 | 92 | 49 | 67 | - 136 | - 85 | 7895 | 5925 | | 2025/06/19 | 6890 | 7585 | 7280 | 5850 | 12100 | 16300 | 92 | 49 | 67 | - 100 | - 140 | 7800 | 5870 | | Daily Change | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | - 55 | - 95 | - 55 | [3] Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber | Date | US Dollar Thai Standard Spot | US Dollar Thai Mixed Spot | RMB Mixed Rubber | Shanghai Whole Milk | Shanghai 3L | Thai Latex | Thai Cup Rubber | Yunnan Latex | Hainan Latex | Butadiene Rubber | RU Main Contract | NR Main Contract | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/13 | 1685 | 1690 | 13720 | 13475 | 14950 | 56.8 | 47.1 | 13100 | 15000 | 11500 | 13875 | 12105 | | 2025/06/16 | 1695 | 1695 | 13750 | 13510 | 14900 | 56.8 | 47.5 | 13000 | 15000 | 11600 | 13910 | 12160 | | 2025/06/17 | 1695 | 1695 | 13740 | 13470 | 14950 | 57.0 | 47.2 | 13000 | 15100 | 11600 | 13870 | 12140 | | 2025/06/18 | 1715 | 1710 | 13850 | 13610 | 14900 | 57.5 | 47.7 | 13200 | 15100 | 11750 | 14010 | 12330 | | 2025/06/19 | 1715 | 1710 | 13860 | 13630 | 14800 | 57.8 | 48.3 | 13200 | 15400 | 11750 | 14030 | 12280 | | Daily Change | 0 | 0 | 10 | 20 | - 100 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 300 | 0 | 20 | - 50 | | Weekly Change | 45 | 45 | 320 | 445 | 50 | 1 | 2 | 100 | 400 | 350 | 445 | 350 | [3] Styrene | Date | Ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) | Pure Benzene (CFR China) | Pure Benzene (East China) | Hydrogenated Benzene (Shandong) | Styrene (CFR China) | Styrene (Jiangsu) | Styrene (South China) | EPS (East China General Material) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/13 | 790 | 782 | 6335 | 6350 | 945 | 8035 | 8140 | 8850 | | 2025/06/16 | 800 | 781 | 6315 | 6330 | 940 | 7920 | 8075 | 8850 | | 2025/06/17 | 810 | 775 | 6230 | 6235 | 925 | 7805 | 7950 | 8850 | | 2025/06/18 | 820 | 791 | 6360 | 6350 | 950 | 8010 | 8050 | 8850 | | 2025/06/19 | 820 | 791 | 6410 | 6400 | 955 | 8100 | 8100 | 8950 | | Daily Change | 0 | 0 | 50 | 50 | 5 | 90 | 50 | 100 | [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - For PTA, the near - term TA operation rate continues to rise, polyester operation rate slightly declines, inventory accumulates, basis remains strong, and spot processing fees weaken. PX domestic operation rate decreases month - on - month, overseas continues to rise, PXN and its structure continue to weaken. In the future, the contradiction in bottle - grade chips may drag down the polyester load, TA will enter the inventory accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting processing fees at high prices [2]. - For MEG, the near - term maintenance returns, the operation rate rises significantly, port inventory slightly accumulates, downstream stocking levels decline, and basis weakens. The fastest de - stocking stage at ports has passed, and it will transition to a balanced and slightly inventory - accumulating stage. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to changes in Iranian imports [7]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term device operation is stable, production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory decreases month - on - month. The downstream polyester yarn operation rate declines, raw material stocking increases, and finished product inventory accumulates month - on - month. It is expected that the processing fee will remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether there will be further production cuts in the industry [7]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal de - stocking. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [7]. - For styrene, the prices of some raw materials and products decline. The domestic profits of some products change, and attention should be paid to the market dynamics [11]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, crude oil rose by 3.3, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 18, PTA internal - market spot price rose by 15, while the naphtha cracking spread decreased by 22.10, and PTA processing fee dropped by 88 [2]. - **Device Changes**: The 1.5 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted [2]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the MEG internal - market price rose by 20, and the MEG coal - based profit remained unchanged, while the MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased by 76 [7]. - **Device Changes**: The 900,000 - ton device of Satellite was under maintenance, the 400,000 - ton device of Yankuang increased its load, and the 900,000 - ton device of Hengli restarted [7]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber rose by 20, short - fiber profit increased by 1, and pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 20 [7]. - **Operation Conditions**: The near - term device operation was stable at an operation rate of 92.1%, production and sales improved month - on - month, and inventory decreased month - on - month [7]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the price of Shanghai 3L rubber rose by 50, and the price of Hainan glue rose by 100 [7]. - **Market Conditions**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [7]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 11 to 17, 2025, the pure - benzene (East China) price decreased by 85, the styrene (CFR China) price dropped by 15, and EPS domestic profit increased by 115 [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For PTA, polyester production has declined, bottle - chip processing fees remain low, TA has sufficient maintenance in the first half of the year and new production plans, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the processing fees of far - month TA [1] - For MEG, there are unexpected device problems in the near term, oil - based supply is reduced more than expected while demand has short - term resilience, and port inventory is expected to decrease significantly. Attention should be paid to the phased positive spread opportunity [1] - For polyester staple fiber, the efficiency is low, the supply is high, and the downstream profit is under pressure. The fundamental situation is difficult to improve significantly, but the processing fees on the disk have been compressed to a low level and are expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to subsequent production reduction actions [1] - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory has slightly decreased, the absolute level is not high, the price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded slightly, and the current strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market data**: From May 19 - 23, 2025, the average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2509(+154). The price of crude oil changed by 0.4, PX CFR by - 3, etc. [1] - **Device changes**: Zhongtai's 1.2 million - ton device restarted, Tongkun's 3 million - ton device was under maintenance, and Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device restarted [1] - **Market situation**: PTA plant operation rate increased, polyester operation rate decreased from a high level, inventory continued to decline, basis strengthened, and spot processing fees decreased but remained at a relatively high level; domestic PX operation rate increased, there were unexpected overseas maintenance, PXN slightly decreased, and the isomerization and disproportionation benefits weakened slightly, while the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia increased [1] MEG - **Market data**: From May 19 - 23, 2025, the negotiation price was around 4515 - 4532, and the basis was around 09(+110) [1] - **Device changes**: Sanjiang's 1 million - ton device restarted [1] - **Market situation**: The domestic oil - based operation rate decreased slightly, coal - based devices had both maintenance and restart, the operation rate decreased slightly, port inventory continued to decline due to less arrival, downstream inventory levels decreased, basis strengthened, and profits continued to increase [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market data**: The spot price was around 6571, and the market basis was around 06 - 20 [1] - **Device changes**: Fujian Jinlun was under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased to 93.2% [1] - **Market situation**: Production and sales decreased month - on - month, inventory increased slightly, the operation rate of the polyester yarn end increased, raw material inventory decreased, finished product inventory increased month - on - month, and efficiency continued to weaken [1] Natural Rubber - **Market data**: From May 1 - 2, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber such as 20 - number rubber, US - dollar Thai mixed rubber, etc. showed different degrees of change [1] - **Market situation**: The national explicit inventory slightly decreased, the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded slightly, and the current strategy is to wait and see [1] Other Chemical Products (Ethylene, Pure Benzene, etc.) - **Market data**: From May 19 - 23, 2025, the prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, etc. changed to different extents, and the domestic profits of ABS, EPS, PS, etc. also changed [1] - **Market situation**: The prices and profits of various chemical products fluctuated, and the operation rates of EPS, ABS, and PS also showed different trends [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA start - up has declined, polyester start - up has increased, inventory has decreased month - on - month, the basis has strengthened, and the spot processing fee has decreased month - on - month but remains at a relatively high level. Consider shorting the far - month TA processing fee [2]. - For MEG, the near - term domestic coal - based restart and oil - based maintenance have kept the start - up stable. The port inventory has decreased slightly, the downstream inventory level has decreased slightly, the basis has strengthened, and the profitability has improved month - on - month. Pay attention to the dynamics of ethane - based plants [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up has increased to 94.1%, sales have improved month - on - month, and inventory has remained stable. The downstream fundamentals are expected to be under pressure, but the futures processing fee has been compressed to a relatively low level, so it is expected to remain weak [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the main contradictions are the low absolute level of national explicit inventory, a slight rebound in the price of Thai cup lump rubber, and the storage purchase. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. Group 3: Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From April 30 to May 9, the price of PTA spot increased by 100, the spot processing fee decreased by 7.0, and the polyester gross profit decreased by 23. The basis increased by 30, and the sales - to - production ratio increased by 0.15 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Taihua's 1.5 million - ton plant was under maintenance, Honggang's 2.5 million - ton plant was under maintenance, and Tongkun Jiatong's 3 million - ton plant restarted [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From April 30 to May 9, the MEG domestic price increased by 39, the coal - based profit increased by 75.96, and the domestic cash flow (ethylene) increased by 38 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Shanghai Petrochemical's 380,000 - ton plant restarted, Guizhou Qianxi's 300,000 - ton plant was under maintenance, and CNOOC Shell's 400,000 - ton plant was under maintenance [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From April 30 to May 9, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 25, the short - fiber profit decreased by 73, and the pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 25 [3]. - **Device Changes**: No device maintenance was reported. The start - up rate increased to 94.1% [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 9, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased by 15, the price of US - dollar Thai mixed rubber decreased by 20, and the price of RMB mixed rubber decreased by 70 [3]. - **Related Ratios and Profits**: The difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract increased by 20, the difference between US - dollar Thai standard rubber and NR main contract increased by 4, and the Thai standard rubber processing profit decreased by 4 [3]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 9, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) decreased by 5, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 5 [5]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic styrene profit increased by 44, the EPS domestic profit decreased by 70, and the PS domestic profit decreased by 69 [5].