音紧像胶呈报 图1 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/05 P 不 As 占 商品 POY 1 仓单+有 石脑油日 PX CFR PTA内盘现 PTA平衡 PTA加 PTA负 石脑油裂 聚酯毛利 50D/4 TA基美 日期 原油 PX加工美 产销 工差 效预报 台湾 न्ह 解价差 K 负荷 荷 8F Half 2025/1 5050 6440 60.8 530 894 84.83 364.0 342 -252 78.6 78.1 119054 -65 0.45 2/25 2025/1 116846 60.6 542 919 5175 6570 97.76 377.0 277 -233 78.2 72.5 -60 0.40 2/26 图H 2025/1 78.2 0.40 61.9 235 892 5065 6570 80.61 311 -146 78.1 114648 -65 357.0 2/29 2025/1 539 894 5100 355.0 342 -203 78.2 107482 -52 0.35 61.9 6545 84.76 78.1 2/30 2025/1 (图H 530 5095 90.3 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in the near - term, TA device runs stably, polyester load drops slightly, inventory decreases, and basis strengthens slightly. In the future, as the terminal weakens, polyester load may reach a turning point, and TA inventory will accumulate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider long - position opportunities at low prices in the long - run due to good PX prospects [2]. - For MEG, domestic oil - based units reduce load, and overseas units also cut production. The port inventory accumulates. In the future, after the valuation is compressed, production cuts increase, and the inventory accumulation narrows. However, considering new production capacity, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate decreases due to maintenance. Sales are stable, and inventory is stable. In the future, demand remains the same, but new production capacity is accelerating, and the downstream is entering the off - season. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, crude oil price dropped by 0.4 USD, PTA spot price decreased by 30 CNY, and polyester gross profit increased by 35 CNY. The PTA balance load decreased by 0.3%, and the basis increased by 3 CNY. The daily average basis of PTA spot trading for 2601 is - 22 [2]. - **Situation Analysis**: Near - term TA device runs stably, polyester load drops slightly, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fee weakens. In the future, as the terminal weakens, polyester load may reach a turning point, and TA inventory will accumulate, but the overall pressure is not large and the valuation is not high [2]. MEG - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, MEG outer - market price dropped by 2 USD, and MEG inner - market price decreased by 28 CNY. The coal - based MEG profit increased by 14.24 CNY, and the inner - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased by 26 CNY [2]. - **Situation Analysis**: Near - term domestic oil - based units reduce load, overseas units also cut production, the port inventory accumulates, and the basis weakens. In the future, after the valuation is compressed, production cuts increase, and the inventory accumulation narrows [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 50 CNY, and the profit of pure - polyester yarn increased by 50 CNY [2]. - **Situation Analysis**: Near - term the start - up rate decreases due to maintenance, sales are stable, and inventory is stable. In the future, demand remains the same, but new production capacity is accelerating, and the downstream is entering the off - season [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 5 USD, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by 40 CNY. The basis between mixed rubber and RU main contract decreased by 25 CNY [2]. - **Situation Analysis**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable. The main contradiction lies in stable inventory and rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 10 USD, and the price of EPS (East China ordinary material) remained unchanged. The domestic profit of styrene decreased by 87 CNY [2][5]. - **Situation Analysis**: No overall situation analysis provided in the report. Only data changes are presented.

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/10 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/1 2/03 62.7 562 848 4700 6485 102.63 286.0 143 30 78.9 73.7 133321 -35 0.40 2025/1 2/04 63.3 560 845 4690 6450 96.05 285.0 144 10 78.9 73.7 130935 -35 0.35 2025/1 2/05 63.8 564 838 4670 6445 96.21 274.0 162 43 79.0 73.7 131121 -33 0.45 2025/1 2/08 62.5 572 841 4650 6415 113.45 269.0 125 50 79.0 73.7 130653 -32 0.60 2025/1 2/09 61.9 563 832 4650 6415 113.45 269.0 1 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/08 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 63.2 568 849 4710 6460 104.46 281.0 143 -24 78.4 73.7 128729 -35 0.50 62.5 567 851 4720 6485 109.49 284.0 142 -1 78.4 73.7 131983 -35 0.50 62.7 562 848 4700 6485 102.63 286.0 143 30 78.9 73.7 133321 -35 0.40 63.3 560 845 4690 6450 96.05 285.0 144 10 78.9 73.7 130935 -35 0.35 63.8 564 838 4670 6445 96.21 274.0 162 43 79.0 73.7 131121 -33 0.45 变化 0.5 4 -7 -20 -5.00 0.16 -11.0 18 33 0.1 0.0 186 2 0.10 近端TA装置运行平稳，开工环比持稳，聚酯负荷 ...

P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/11/ 12 62.7 584 825 4590 6580 124.34 241.0 127 179 78.3 75.7 113382 -78 0.35 2025/11/ 13 63.0 569 826 4565 6570 107.14 257.0 106 197 78.3 75.7 113382 -77 0.40 2025/11/ 14 64.4 577 832 4635 6570 105.02 255.0 142 124 77.5 75.7 114594 -77 0.70 2025/11/ 17 64.2 571 831 4615 6590 100.66 260.0 122 161 77.5 75.7 114594 -74 0.45 2025/11/ 18 64.9 569 827 4610 6585 100.66 258.0 137 170 77.5 75.7 1145 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - end TA partial device load reduction, start - up slightly decreased, polyester load increased month - on - month, inventory slightly accumulated, basis strengthened month - on - month, and spot processing fee slightly repaired. With the subsequent low processing fee for a long time and better terminal data, the processing fee center may gradually repair [2]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based restarted, load increased month - on - month, overseas partial devices restarted, port inventory decreased month - on - month at the beginning of next week, but the arrival forecast increased during the week, basis weakened month - on - month, and coal - based benefits and price ratios decreased. In the long - term, it is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage with a bearish pattern, but there may be partial negative feedback on the supply side after the weakening of coal - based benefits and price ratios [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end Fujian Shanli restarted, start - up increased, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory remained stable. With the overall inapparent improvement in the benefits and start - up of the polyester yarn end, high export growth of staple fiber itself, and high start - up due to good spot benefits, the overall inventory pressure is limited, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the spread and the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low absolute level, and the Thai cup - lump rubber price remained stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Commodity PTA - Price data: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, crude oil decreased from $64.9 to $64.4, PTA internal - market spot decreased from 4535 to 4520, and polyester POY 150D/48F increased from 6415 to 6515. The PTA processing fee increased from 119 to 94, and polyester gross profit increased from - 3 to 160 [2]. - Device change: Shandong Weilian's 2.5 - million - ton device reduced load [2]. MEG - Price data: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740, MEG external - market price decreased from 490 to 471, and MEG internal - market price decreased from 4152 to 4002. MEG coal - based profit decreased from - 171 to - 286 [2]. - Device change: Tongliao's 300,000 - ton device restarted [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price data: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6440 to 6395, and short - fiber profit decreased from 154 to 132 [2]. - Device change: Fujian Shanli restarted, and the start - up increased to 96.8% [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Price data: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the US - dollar Thai standard spot decreased from 1865 to 1800, and the Shanghai whole - latex decreased from 14925 to 14175 [2]. - Key indicators: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the Thai cup - lump rubber price remained stable with rainfall affecting tapping [2]. Styrene - Price data: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 740, pure benzene (CFR China) remained at 681, and styrene (CFR China) decreased from 800 to 780. EPS domestic profit increased from 275 to 395 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - For PTA, near - term partial device load reduction leads to a slight decline in TA开工, while polyester load rises, inventory accumulates slightly, and the basis strengthens. PX domestic operation recovers, overseas maintenance occurs, and PXN expands. TA's low processing fees have persisted for a long time, and with better terminal data, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - For MEG, domestic oil - based restart causes the load to rise, overseas devices restart, and port inventory decreases at the beginning of the week but is expected to rise later. The long - term pattern is bearish, but there may be negative feedback on the supply side, and attention should be paid to coal - based cost support [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the restart of Fujian Shanli increases the start - up rate, sales decline, and inventory remains stable. The overall inventory pressure is limited, and attention should be paid to opportunities to expand spreads and warehouse receipt situations [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, the price of Thai cup rubber is stable, and the rain affects tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Data Changes**: From Oct 28 to Nov 03, crude oil changed by - 0.2, PTA spot price increased by 25, and polyester price increased by 100. The inventory increased by 5802, and the basis remained unchanged. PTA spot average daily transaction basis is 2601(-73), and Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million - ton device reduced its load [2]. - **Outlook**: TA low processing fees have lasted long, and terminal data improvement supports polyester start - up. With limited far - month production, the processing fee center may recover [2]. MEG - **Data Changes**: From Oct 28 to Nov 03, Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, MEG prices decreased, and MEG coal - based profit decreased by 38. The Tongliao 300,000 - ton device restarted [3]. - **Outlook**: The EG inventory is in a continuous accumulation stage, and the long - term pattern is bearish. But there may be negative feedback on the supply side after the decline of coal - based benefits, and attention should be paid to coal - based cost support [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: From Oct 28 to Nov 03, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 15, and short - fiber profit decreased by 24. The start - up rate of Fujian Shanli increased to 96.8% [3]. - **Outlook**: The overall inventory pressure is limited, the disk processing fee is not high, and attention should be paid to opportunities to expand spreads and warehouse receipt situations [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Data Changes**: From Oct 28 to Nov 03, the price of US - dollar Thai standard decreased by 45, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 285. The national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable [3]. - **Outlook**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see due to stable inventory and rain - affected tapping [3]. Styrene - **Data Changes**: From Oct 28 to Nov 03, ethylene remained unchanged, pure benzene in East China increased by 70, and styrene CFR China decreased by 5. EPS domestic profit increased by 30, and PS domestic profit increased by 29 [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: The low processing fee for TA has persisted for a long time, and the improvement in terminal data supports the continuation of polyester operation. With limited new capacity coming online in the far - month, the processing fee center may gradually recover [3]. - **MEG**: EG has entered a continuous inventory accumulation phase due to high existing capacity and new plant commissioning. However, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side after the weakening of coal - based efficiency and price ratio. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling put options near the coal - based cost [9]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The operation of staple fiber plants is stable, and inventory is decreasing. Given the limited overall inventory pressure, low processing fees on the futures market, high export volume, and good spot efficiency, attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding spreads on dips and the situation of warehouse receipts [9]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: The national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable. The current strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the price of crude oil increased by $0.1, PTA spot price increased by 85 yuan/ton, PX processing margin increased by $3/ton, and PTA processing margin increased by 87 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased by 6,246, and the basis increased by 6 yuan/ton [2]. - **Device Changes**: Dushan Energy's 3 - million - ton plant started production. Near - term, some TA plants restarted, and the operating rate continued to rise [3]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the MEG outer - market price decreased by $1/ton, the inner - market price decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by $5/ton [9]. - **Device Changes**: Fujian Refining's 400,000 - ton plant restarted. Near - term, domestic oil - based plants had planned maintenance and some unexpected situations, resulting in a decline in the operating rate [9]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the profit of staple fiber decreased by 8 yuan/ton [9]. - **Device and Operation Changes**: The operating rate of staple fiber plants remained at 94%, and the operating rate of recycled cotton - type plants remained at 51%. The sales - to - production ratio improved, and inventory continued to decrease [9]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased by $20/ton, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 225 yuan/ton, and the price of RU main contract decreased by 225 yuan/ton [9]. - **Related Index Changes**: The difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract increased by 145 yuan/ton, and the difference between US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber and NR main contract remained unchanged [9]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene decreased by $14/ton, and the price of styrene decreased by $10/ton. The domestic profit of styrene increased by 108 yuan/ton, and the domestic profit of EPS increased by 80 yuan/ton [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - For PTA, the low processing fee has persisted for a long time, and the improvement in terminal data supports the continuation of polyester operation. With limited future production capacity, the processing fee center may gradually recover [3][4]. - For MEG, the inventory is accumulating, but there may be negative feedback on the supply side due to the weakening of coal - based efficiency and comparison. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling put options near the coal - based cost [8]. - For polyester staple fiber, the overall efficiency and operation of polyester yarn have not improved significantly. With high exports and good spot efficiency, the inventory pressure is limited. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the spread at low prices and the situation of warehouse receipts [8]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable. The current strategy is to wait and see [8]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Data Changes**: From October 23 - 29, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by $0.5, PTA internal - market spot price increased by $110, and the PTA processing fee increased by $117. The PTA balance load and PTA load remained stable at 80.6% and 78.8% respectively, and the inventory (warehouse receipts + valid forecasts) increased by 5,666 [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Dushan Energy's 3 million - ton device was put into production. The operation of proximal TA devices restarted, and the polyester load remained stable. The basis was weak, and the spot processing fee decreased again. The domestic operation of PX increased, and the PXN spread decreased [3]. MEG - **Price and Data Changes**: From October 23 - 29, 2025, the MEG internal - market price decreased by $21, and the coal - based MEG profit decreased by $170. The total MEG load and coal - based MEG load remained stable at 73.3% and 82.2% respectively, and the port inventory remained at 523,000 tons [8]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Fulian's 400,000 - ton device restarted. The domestic oil - based maintenance was implemented, and the load decreased. The overseas operation was stable, and the port inventory increased slightly. The basis strengthened, and the coal - based efficiency and comparison rebounded [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Data Changes**: From October 23 - 29, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained stable at $6,440, and the short - fiber profit remained at $154. The production and sales ratio improved, and the inventory continued to decline [8]. - **Device and Market Situation**: The proximal device operation was stable, and the operation rate remained at 94.3%. The operation of polyester yarn remained stable, the raw material inventory increased, and the finished - product inventory decreased, with slightly weakened efficiency [8]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price and Data Changes**: From October 23 - 29, 2025, the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by $115, and the price of RU main contract increased by $380. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber increased by $2.9, and the price of Yunnan glue increased by $500 [8]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber remained stable. Rain affected rubber tapping [8]. Styrene - **Price and Data Changes**: From October 23 - 29, 2025, the price of ethylene decreased by $30, the price of pure benzene decreased by $87, and the price of styrene increased by $5. The domestic profit of styrene increased by $46, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by $15 [11].

Group 1: PTA - The price of PTA spot decreased from 4440 on October 13, 2025, to 4340 on October 17, 2025, with a change of -15. The average daily trading basis was 2601(-85). Yisheng New Materials increased the load of its 3.6 million - ton PTA plant. Near - term, some PTA plants increased their loads, and the start - up rate increased slightly. The polyester load remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated, the basis weakened, and the spot processing fee remained low. PX domestic start - up rate declined, some overseas maintenance was implemented, PXN widened, disproportionation and isomerization benefits were stable, and the US - Asia aromatics price difference widened. In the future, polyester has no unexpected performance, TA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, but the current low processing fee has lasted for a long time. Pay attention to additional maintenance. With limited far - month production capacity expansion, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. Group 2: MEG - The price of MEG domestic market decreased from 4171 on October 13, 2025, to 4115 on October 17, 2025. Shell's 400,000 - ton MEG plant was under maintenance. Near - term, domestic MEG plants had a mix of maintenance restarts, and the load still increased slightly. Overseas maintenance was implemented, arrivals were stable but shipments were weak. Port inventory continued to accumulate slightly at the beginning of next week, the basis was stable, and coal - based MEG profits and price ratios further shrank. In the future, EG's existing start - up rate has returned to a relatively high level, and with the commissioning of new plants, it will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage. However, after the weakening of coal - based profits and price ratios, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side. Also, the coal price has strengthened recently. Pay attention to the selling put options near the coal - based cost [2]. Group 3: Polyester Staple Fiber - The price of 1.4D cotton - type polyester staple fiber decreased from 6410 on October 13, 2025, to 6370 on October 17, 2025. The spot price was around 6301, and the market basis was around 11 + 40. Near - term, the plant operation was stable, the start - up rate remained at 94.3%, sales improved month - on - month, and inventory decreased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn increased slightly, both raw material and finished product inventories decreased, and the efficiency improved slightly. In the future, the start - up rate and finished product inventory of polyester yarn have not increased significantly overall. The export of staple fiber itself has maintained high growth. With acceptable spot efficiency, the high start - up rate will be maintained, and the overall inventory pressure is limited. The processing fee on the futures market is not high. Pay attention to the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. Group 4: Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - The price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased from 1805 on October 13, 2025, to 1815 on October 17, 2025. The main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low absolute level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber remains stable, while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Group 5: Styrene - The price of styrene in the domestic market decreased from 6705 on October 13, 2025, to 6495 on October 17, 2025. The price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained stable at 785 during this period. The domestic profit of styrene remained at - 453 [2][7].