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【广发金工】均线情绪修复
Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 1.89% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.22%. The large-cap value index rose by 0.10%, and the large-cap growth index fell by 0.16%. The Shanghai 50 Index declined by 0.46%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 dropped by 0.74%. The non-ferrous metals and oil & petrochemical sectors performed well, whereas household appliances and food & beverage sectors lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium. Historical extreme bottoms have shown this data to be at two standard deviations above the mean, with notable peaks in 2012, 2018, and 2020. As of April 26, 2022, the risk premium reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it rose to 4.08%. The latest reading on January 19, 2024, was 4.11%, marking the fifth instance since 2016 exceeding 4%. As of June 13, 2025, the indicator was at 3.83%, with the two standard deviation boundary at 4.75% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of June 13, 2025, the CSI All Index's P/E TTM percentile was at 54%. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices were at 62% and 52%, respectively. The ChiNext Index was close to 13%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices were at 30% and 22%. The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index indicates a bear market every three years, followed by a bull market. Historical declines ranged from 40% to 45%, with the current adjustment starting in Q1 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - Over the last five trading days, ETF funds saw an outflow of 17 billion yuan, while margin financing increased by approximately 9.4 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 1.3392 trillion yuan [2]. Neural Network Analysis - A convolutional neural network (CNN) was utilized to model price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes. The latest recommended themes include non-ferrous metals and banking sectors [9].
【广发金工】宏观视角看好权益资产
Market Performance - The recent five trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.36%, the ChiNext Index by 1.40%, and the large-cap value index by 0.16%, while the large-cap growth index fell by 2.71%. The Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 1.22%, whereas the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 0.94%. Sectors such as environmental protection and biomedicine performed well, while automotive and electrical equipment lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, defined as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Index (EP) minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically significant levels. For instance, on April 26, 2022, the risk premium reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it was 4.08%. As of January 19, 2024, the indicator stood at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4%. As of May 30, 2025, the indicator was at 3.90%, with the two-standard deviation boundary set at 4.75% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of May 30, 2025, the CSI All Index's PETTM was at the 50th percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 61% and 48%, respectively. The ChiNext Index was close to 11%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were at 30% and 32%. The ChiNext Index's valuation style is relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index indicates a cyclical pattern of bear markets every three years, followed by bull markets. Historical declines ranged from 40% to 45%, with the current adjustment starting in the first quarter of 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 8.5 billion yuan, with margin trading increasing by approximately 720 million yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 10.687 billion yuan [4]. AI and Machine Learning Applications - The use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for modeling price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes. The latest focus is on sectors such as banking [3][10].
【广发金工】ETF资金流出
Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 1.10% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.38%. The large-cap value and growth indices rose by 1.45% and 1.60%, respectively. The Shanghai 50 Index rose by 1.22%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 increased by 0.16%. The beauty and personal care sector, along with non-bank financials, performed well, while the computer and defense industries lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium. Historical extreme bottoms have shown this data at two standard deviations above the mean, with notable instances in 2012, 2018, and 2020. As of April 26, 2022, the risk premium reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it was 4.08%. The latest reading on January 19, 2024, was 4.11%, marking the fifth instance since 2016 exceeding 4%. As of May 16, 2025, the indicator was at 3.86%, with the two standard deviation boundary at 4.76% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of May 16, 2025, the CSI All Index's PETTM percentile is at 52%. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices are at 62% and 50%, respectively, while the ChiNext Index is close to 11%. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are at 31% and 33%, indicating that the ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical levels [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index shows a pattern of bear markets occurring every three years, followed by bull markets. The last bear market began in Q1 2021, with previous declines ranging from 40% to 45%. The current adjustment appears to have sufficient time and space, suggesting a potential upward cycle from the bottom [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 34.1 billion yuan, while margin financing decreased by approximately 600 million yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 1.2317 trillion yuan [3]. AI and Machine Learning Applications - The report discusses the use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to model price and volume data, aiming to predict future prices. The learned features are mapped to industry themes, with a current focus on banking [6].
【广发金工】市场震荡调整(20250427)
广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日,科创50指数跌0.40%,创业板指涨1.74%,大盘价值跌0.30%,大盘成长涨0.89%,上证50跌0.33%,国证2000代表的小盘涨2.38%,汽车、 美容护理市场表现靠前,食品饮料、房地产表现靠后。 风险溢价,中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率,权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比,历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域,比如2012/2018/2020年(疫情突发),2022/04/26达到4.17%,2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%,市场迅速反弹,2024/01/19指标4.11%,自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/04/25指标3.99%,两倍标准差边界为4.75%。 估值水平,截至2025/04/25,中证全指PETTM分位数48%,上证50与沪深300分别为60%、46%, ...
【广发金工】市场缩量调整(20250420)
广发金融工程研究· 2025-04-20 07:30
Market Performance - The recent 5 trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.31%, the ChiNext Index by 0.64%, while large-cap value stocks rose by 2.62% and large-cap growth stocks fell by 0.24% [1] - The banking and real estate sectors performed well, while defense, military, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds, has reached historical extremes, with values exceeding 4% on multiple occasions since 2016 [1] - As of April 18, 2025, the risk premium stood at 4.05%, with the two-standard deviation boundary at 4.74% [1] Valuation Levels - As of April 18, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's TTM PE percentile is at 47%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 60% and 45% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index is relatively undervalued at close to 9% [2] - The long-term view of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear and bull markets every three years, with the current adjustment phase starting in Q1 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last 5 trading days, ETF inflows totaled 24.3 billion yuan, while margin trading decreased by approximately 3.4 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1,076.1 billion yuan across the two markets [3] AI and Data Analysis - The use of convolutional neural networks to model price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes, indicating a focus on sectors such as banking and securities as of April 18, 2025 [2][8]
【广发金工】市场缩量调整(20250420)
广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日,科创50指数跌0.31%,创业板指跌0.64%,大盘价值涨2.62%,大盘成长跌0.24%,上证50涨1.45%,国证2000代表的小盘涨0.05%,银行、 房地产市场表现靠前,国防军工、农林牧渔表现靠后。 风险溢价,中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率,权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比,历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域,比如2012/2018/2020年(疫情突发),2022/04/26达到4.17%,2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%,市场迅速反弹,2024/01/19指标4.11%,自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/04/18指标4.05%,两倍标准差边界为4.74%。 估值水平,截至2025/04/18,中证全指PETTM分位数47%,上证50与沪深300分别为60%、45%, ...
【广发金工】ETF资金大幅流入(20250413)
广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日,科创50指数跌0.63%,创业板指跌6.73%,大盘价值跌2.61%,大盘成长跌3.37%,上证50跌1.60%,国证2000代表的小盘跌6.29%,农林牧 渔、商贸零售市场表现靠前,电力设备、通信表现靠后。 风险溢价,中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率,权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比,历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域,比如2012/2018/2020年(疫情突发),2022/04/26达到4.17%,2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%,市场迅速反弹,2024/01/19指标4.11%,自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/04/11指标4.09%,两倍标准差边界为4.73%。 估值水平,截至2025/04/11,中证全指PETTM分位数45%,上证50与沪深300分别为56%、43%,创业板指接近9%,中证500与中证1000 ...
【广发金工】ETF资金大幅流入(20250413)
广发金融工程研究· 2025-04-13 06:41
Market Performance - The recent five trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.63%, the ChiNext Index drop by 6.73%, and the large-cap value index decrease by 2.61% [1] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, along with retail trade, performed well, while the power equipment and telecommunications sectors lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically high levels, reaching 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.11% on January 19, 2024 [1] - As of April 11, 2025, the risk premium stands at 4.09%, with the two-standard deviation boundary at 4.73% [1] Valuation Levels - As of April 11, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's PE TTM percentile is at 45%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 56% and 43% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index is at a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2] - The long-term view of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear and bull markets every three years, with the current adjustment phase starting in Q1 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 206.9 billion yuan, while margin financing decreased by approximately 98.3 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.5742 trillion yuan [3] AI and Machine Learning Insights - The use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for modeling price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes, indicating a focus on sectors like securities as of April 11, 2025 [7][2]
【广发金工】AI识图关注红利低波(20250330)
广发金融工程研究· 2025-03-30 04:51
Market Performance - The recent 5 trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index drop by 1.12%, while the large-cap value index rose by 0.28% and the large-cap growth index increased by 0.04% [1] - The healthcare and agriculture sectors performed well, whereas the computer and defense industries lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium, which has historically reached extreme levels at two standard deviations above the mean during significant market bottoms [1] - As of January 19, 2024, the risk premium indicator was at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4% [1] Valuation Levels - As of March 28, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's PE TTM percentile was at 53%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 58% and 48% respectively, while the ChiNext Index was close to 14% [2] - The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical averages [2] Long-term Market Trends - The Shenzhen 100 Index has experienced bear markets approximately every three years, followed by bull markets, with declines ranging from 40% to 45% [2] - The current adjustment cycle, which began in Q1 2021, appears to have sufficient time and space for a potential upward trend [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last 5 trading days, ETF inflows totaled 16.2 billion yuan, while margin financing decreased by approximately 24.8 billion yuan [3] - The average daily trading volume across both markets was 1.2346 trillion yuan [3] Thematic Investment Focus - As of March 28, 2025, the recommended investment themes include construction materials and low-volatility dividend stocks [2][8]
重磅!AlexNet源代码已开源
半导体芯闻· 2025-03-24 10:20
如果您希望可以时常见面,欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源:内容来自计算机历史博物馆(CHM),谢谢。 计算机历史博物馆(CHM)与Google合作,发布了AlexNet 的源代码。AlexNet 是一个神经网 络,于 2012 年开启了当今流行的 AI 方法。该源代码可在CHM 的 GitHub 页面上以开源形式获 取。 什么是 AlexNet? AlexNet 是 一 个 人 工 神 经 网 络 , 用 于 识 别 照 片 内 容 。 它 由 当 时 的 多 伦 多 大 学 研 究 生 Alex Krizhevsky 和 Ilya Sutskever 以及他们的导师 Geoffrey Hinton 于 2012 年开发。 深度学习的起源 杰弗里·辛顿被认为是"深度学习"之父之一。深度学习是一种使用神经网络的人工智能,也是当今 主流人工智能的基础。上世纪 50 年代末,康奈尔大学研究员弗兰克·罗森布拉特首次构建了简单 的三层神经网络,其中只有一层自适应权重,但人们发现这种网络存在局限性。人们需要具有多层 自适应权重的网络,但没有很好的方法来训练它们。到 20 世纪 70 年代初,神经网络已被人工智 能研究人员普遍拒绝。 ...