Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed by China has led to a rally in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations has an impact on the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The main logical focus is on the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The current main risk is the El Niño weather [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 126, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [5]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 76, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [7]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7]. Supply and Demand Aspects - **Supply**: Includes aspects such as imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12][14][19][22][24][26]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports an increase in biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. Soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400, palm oil P2509 in the range of 8600 - 9000, and rapeseed oil OI2509 in the range of 9300 - 9700 [3][5][6] Summary by Directory Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that Malaysia's palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8360, with a basis of 168, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [3] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. The current export data has increased, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season [5] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 100, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [5] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [5] - Expectation: Palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [5] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. The current export data has increased, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season [6] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [6] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [6] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [7] -利空: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [7] Supply and Demand - Supply: It includes imports of soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12] - Demand: It includes the apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is relatively high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China have led to the rise of rapeseed products, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8320, with a basis of 200, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main positions**: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have increased [3]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [3]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production reduction, and the subsequent supply will increase [3][5][6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [5]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [5]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of the palm oil main contract have decreased [5]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production reduction, and the subsequent supply will increase [3][5][6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9550, with a basis of 144, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [6]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [6]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season [7]. - **Negative factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7].

Report Information - Report Name: Grease Morning Report - Date: July 24, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of fats and oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of fats and oils is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of fats and oils are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations have eased, affecting the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Specific Analysis of Different Oils Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% MoM to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% MoM to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% MoM to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% MoM increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8300, with a basis of 226, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons MoM and 11.7% YoY. It is bearish. - Disk: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is bullish. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the subsequent palm oil supply will increase. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9060, with a basis of 66, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons MoM and 34.1% YoY. It is bullish. - Disk: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the subsequent palm oil supply will increase. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 144, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons MoM and 3.2% YoY. It is bearish. - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is currently the palm oil production cut season [5] -利空: The prices of fats and oils are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of fats and oils is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related fats and oils is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of fats and oils are relatively loose [5] Supply and Demand Indicators - Supply indicators include import soybean inventory [6], soybean oil inventory [8], soybean meal inventory [10], oil mill soybean crushing [12], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [20], rapeseed inventory [22], and domestic total fat and oil inventory [24] - Demand indicator: The apparent consumption of soybean oil [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Ship survey agencies show that Malaysia's palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month - on - month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8300, with a basis of 224, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [3] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results with less - than - expected production cuts, and subsequent supply is expected to increase [5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 74, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the palm oil main contract have decreased [5] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [5] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results with less - than - expected production cuts, and subsequent supply is expected to increase [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 123, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [6] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have decreased [6] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production - reduction season [7] - **Negative Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [7]

证券代码：839979 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8254，基差260，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：7月4日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝上。中性 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓和宏观 层面影响市场。豆油Y2509：7800-8200附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 油脂早报 2025-07-15投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low, and demand is weak. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have a macro - level impact on the market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 162 tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 149 tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 183 tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8194, with a basis of 248, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 88 tons, an increase of 2 tons from the previous 86 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7700 - 8100 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8828, with a basis of 184, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 38 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from the previous value of 39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1 ton and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8450 - 8850 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9745, with a basis of 147, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 65 tons, an increase of 2 tons from the previous value of 63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-07-08投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8100，基差206，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：6月2日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝上。中性 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲 软。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓 和宏观 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but international biodiesel profits are low and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian canola has led to a rise in the canola sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, affecting the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in March, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,264, with a basis of 270, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,800 - 8,200 [2] Daily Viewpoints - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,744, with a basis of 266, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: On June 2, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700 [3] Daily Viewpoints - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,775, with a basis of 156, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Imported soybean inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [6] - Soybean oil inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [7] - Soybean meal inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [9] - Oil mill soybean crushing: Not described in detail, only mentioned [11] - Palm oil inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [19] - Rapeseed inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [21] - Total domestic oils and fats inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [23] Demand - Soybean oil apparent consumption: Not described in detail, only mentioned [13] - Soybean meal apparent consumption: Not described in detail, only mentioned [15]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-07-03投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8224，基差252，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：6月2日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空增。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关 ...