证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-12-08投资咨询部 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8394，基差128，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8400附近区间震荡 每日观点 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Subsequently, entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8472, with a basis of 220, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral. Currently, shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Subsequently, entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8670, with a basis of 50, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral. Currently, shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Subsequently, entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10115, with a basis of 370, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,472, with a basis of 188, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. 3.1.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,690, with a basis of 38, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above. The supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,145, with a basis of 375, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [4]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Core View - The prices of oils and fats are in a consolidation phase with a neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic supply of oils and fats. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamental situation of oils and fats is neutral with stable import inventory [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamental situation of oils and fats. The main risk factor is the El Niño weather [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 118 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 58 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 56 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] Demand - No specific data or analysis on demand is provided in the given content except for the mention of demand-related items in the table of contents Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] - Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Other Factors - The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase [2][3][4] - Bullish factors include the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil tremor season [5] - Bearish factors include the relatively high historical price of oils and fats, continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oils and fats, weak macroeconomic conditions, and high expected production of related oils and fats [5]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which affects the export of new US soybeans and puts pressure on prices. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, with a B50 plan expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main risk factor is the El Nino weather [5]. Summary by Directory Daily Views - **Soybean Oil**: The MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1180000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. The futures price is below the 20-day moving average which is downward. The long positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil increases. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. On September 22, the port inventory was 580000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. The futures price is below the 20-day moving average which is downward. The long positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil increases. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The futures price is above the 20-day moving average which is upward. The long positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US soybean inventory-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a palm oil tremor season [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. Supply - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: No specific data analysis provided, only an indication of the topic [6]. - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 1180000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2]. - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: No specific data analysis other than historical inventory trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [9][10]. - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: No specific data analysis other than historical trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [11][12]. - **Palm Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 580000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 560000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4]. - **Rapeseed Inventory**: No specific data analysis other than historical inventory trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [21][22]. - **Domestic Total Edible Oil Inventory**: Historical inventory trends from 2015 - 2019 are shown in the graph [23][24]. Demand - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Historical consumption trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [13][14]. - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Historical consumption trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [15][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% MoM to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% MoM to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% MoM to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current monthly export data of Malaysian palm oil shows a 4% MoM increase, and as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8480, with a basis of 160, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons MoM and 11.7% YoY [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, but palm oil will enter the production - increase season, leading to an increase in supply [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8740, with a basis of 32, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons MoM and down 34.1% YoY [3] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, with an increase in palm oil supply as it enters the production - increase season [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10240, with a basis of 366, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons MoM and 3.2% YoY [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4] Recent利多and利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: Relevant information about soybean oil inventory is provided [6] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Information on soybean meal inventory [8] - **Soybean Pressing by Oil Mills**: Details about oil mills' soybean pressing [10] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: Information on palm oil inventory [17] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: Details about rapeseed oil inventory [19] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Information on rapeseed inventory [21] - **Total Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory**: Details about the total domestic inventory of oils and fats [23] Demand - Related - **Apparent Consumption of Soybean Oil**: Information on the apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] - **Apparent Consumption of Soybean Meal**: Details about the apparent consumption of soybean meal [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it will enter the production cut season, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8440, the basis is 158, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it will enter the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8710, the basis is 30, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it will enter the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10240, the basis is 360, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The inventory-to-sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Nino weather [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - As of September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1180000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - As of September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - As of September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Other supply aspects mentioned include soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [8][10][17] Demand - Demand aspects mentioned include the apparent consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal [12][14] Price Expectation - Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] - Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Market Analysis - For soybean oil, the basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, the inventory is increasing, the futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the long positions of the main contract are decreasing [2] - For palm oil, the basis shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, the inventory is increasing but the year - on - year decrease is significant, the futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the long positions of the main contract are increasing [3] - For rapeseed oil, the basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, the inventory is increasing, the futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the long positions of the main contract are increasing [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which has put pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. The overall assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8372, and the basis is 144, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. This is a bearish factor [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8714, and the basis is 24, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. This is a neutral factor [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%. This is a bullish factor [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above. Subsequently, as it enters the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9881, and the basis is 294, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. This is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 9800 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is also the palm oil tremor season [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of edible oils are relatively loose [5].

Report Overview - Analyst: Wang Mingwei [1] -从业资格号： F0283029 [1] - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 [1] - Date: 2025-11-07 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase. Entering the production cut season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. The basis is 92, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The commercial inventory on September 22 was 1.18 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. The short positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, but entering the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The basis is -32, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price. The port inventory on September 22 was 580,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil. The basis is 286, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The commercial inventory on September 22 was 560,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The long positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The inventory-to-sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] -利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are loose [5] Supply - Items include soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [6][8][10][17][19][21][23] Demand - Items include soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption [12][14]