当地时间2月13日， 俄罗斯中央银行宣布，将基准利率从16%下调至15.5%，这是俄 央行连续第六次降息 。 俄央行发布的声明称，俄罗斯经济继续回归平衡增长轨道。受一次性因素影响，1月份通胀出 现显著加速，但随着该因素消退，通胀将恢复放缓。整体上，去年11月至今年1月的物价上涨 符合央行预期。 俄央行将2026年通胀预期上调至4.5%至5.5%，但预计下半年通胀将 "接近4%"。俄央行还 预计2027年通胀将回归目标水平，目前，年化通胀率为6.3%。此外，对2026年平均基准利 率的预测区间为13.5%至14.5%。 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 央行等四部门联合发布！ 丨 黄金、白银大涨！ 丨 6月降息概率飙升！深夜，美国重磅通胀数据 公布 丨 宁德时代被纳入！港股，重大调整！ 丨 688209在互动平台"自问自答"，被 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpectedly strong employment data for January does not imply that policymakers should pause further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - Fed Governor Milan suggests that planned supply-side reforms, such as reducing business regulations, will facilitate continued rate cuts [1] - Expectations of a slowdown in housing inflation are seen as a factor that could support further reductions in the benchmark interest rate [1] - Since joining the Federal Reserve Board in September, Milan has consistently opposed the majority view at policy meetings, advocating for larger rate cuts than other officials are willing to support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpectedly strong performance of January employment data does not imply that policymakers should pause further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - Milan indicated that planned supply-side reforms, such as reducing business regulations, along with expectations of a slowdown in housing inflation, will clear the way for policymakers to continue lowering the benchmark interest rate [1] - Since joining the Federal Reserve Board in September, Milan has opposed the majority view at every policy meeting, advocating for a larger rate cut than other officials are prepared to support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Central Bank's monetary policy committee (Copom) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate (Selic) at 15%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting at this level and the highest since July 2006. The financial market had widely anticipated this outcome, with expectations for a potential interest rate cut in the next meeting [1]. Group 1 - The Selic rate remains unchanged at 15% [1] - This decision reflects the highest interest rate level since July 2006 [1] - The market anticipates the Central Bank may initiate a rate-cutting cycle in the upcoming meeting [1]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月11日｜路透社的一项经济学家调查显示，美联储将在鲍威尔5月任期结束前维持基准利率不 变，但在6月会立即降息。同时，受访者担心其继任者凯文·沃什领导下的政策风险可能过于宽松。超过 70%的经济学家(主要来自银行和金融机构)表示，他们担心鲍威尔离任后美联储的独立性将受到严重侵 蚀。 ...

（原标题：南非储备银行维持基准利率不变） 《南非每日商报》1月29日报道称，南非储备银行29日宣布，将基准政策利率维持在6.75%不变。 南非储备银行行长康亚戈（Lesetja Kganyago）表示，当前国内风险上升，全球政治秩序出现不确定 性，同时央行独立性也面临新的挑战。他指出，需重点关注电价上涨以及食品通胀风险，尤其是受口蹄 疫影响的肉类价格。该决定是在货币政策委员会（MPC）2026年首次会议后作出的。 储备银行下调了2026年通胀预期，由3.5%降至3.3%，主要得益于兰特走强和油价假设下调。数据 显示，2025年平均通胀率为3.2%，为2004年以来最低，处于3%通胀目标区间内。储备银行预计通胀已 于去年12月见顶，未来将逐步回落。 储备银行同时指出，若兰特进一步走强、油价下行，通胀可能短暂降至2.3%，为年内提前降息创 造条件；反之，若外部环境恶化，利率可能在短期内维持不变。市场人士认为，储备银行正采取审慎立 场，以巩固新的3%通胀目标。 ...

每经AI快讯，2月6日，印度央行将基准利率维持在5.25%不变，符合市场预期。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.64% to 4,075.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 1.44% to 13,592.71 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.55% to 3,260.28 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.19 trillion yuan [6][11] - In the Asia-Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.14% to 26,885.24 points, while the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 0.88% to 53,818.04 points. The KOSPI Index in South Korea decreased by 3.86% to 5,163.57 points [11] - European markets saw declines, with the FTSE 100 down by 0.9% to 10,309.22 points, the DAX 30 down by 0.93% to 24,373.06 points, and the CAC 40 down by 0.29% to 8,238.17 points [11] - In the US market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.2% to 48,908.72 points, the Nasdaq dropped by 1.59% to 22,540.59 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 1.23% to 6,798.4 points [11] International News - The Iranian Foreign Minister, Amir-Abdollahian, arrived in Oman to attend nuclear negotiations with the US delegation, focusing solely on nuclear issues [10] - The European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause since June of the previous year, without signaling future policy direction [10] - The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, with four out of nine monetary policy committee members voting for a 25 basis point cut, indicating a dovish stance [10] Domestic News - The 2026 National Service Consumption and Trade Work Conference emphasized the shift from goods consumption to service consumption, aiming to cultivate new growth points in service consumption and support service exports [12] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that China's service trade import and export total reached 80,823.1 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with a notable growth in travel services [12] - A joint initiative by the National Internet Information Office and eleven other departments introduced 14 measures to enhance digital service convenience for foreign personnel entering China [12] - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration issued a notice on zero tariffs for imported goods consumed by residents in Hainan Free Trade Port [12] Important Announcements - Nanmin Group plans to invest 30 million USD to acquire a 10% stake in Eagle Valley Gold [13] - Huisheng Biotechnology is investing 1 billion yuan to establish a synthetic biology manufacturing project in Xinjiang [13] - TBEA's subsidiary won a coal exploration right for 2.705 billion yuan [13]

每经AI快讯，2月5日，英国央行维持基准利率在3.75%不变，符合市场预期。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储理事丽莎·库克表示，美联储必须在近期将通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维 护其信誉至关重要。 "除非我看到更强劲的证据表明通胀正持续回落至目标水平，否则这将继续是我的关注焦点——当然， 前提是劳动力市场未出现意外变化。"库克在为周三迈阿密一场活动准备的讲稿中如此表示。 美联储决策层上周将基准利率维持在3.5%至3.75%区间不变，此前在2025年底已连续三次降息。按兵不 动的同时，官员们上调了对经济和劳动力市场的评估，并释放出暂无进一步降息紧迫性的信号。 沃什此前曾表示美联储有降息空间，理由是他相信生产率提升能在不推高通胀的情况下促进经济增长。 库克称她支持上周维持利率不变的决定，因她目前认为"风险偏向于通胀上行"。她与近期多位发表谨慎 言论的决策者立场一致——通胀率已连续数年高于美联储2%的目标。 "在经历近五年高于目标的通胀后，我们亟需通过重返通胀放缓轨道、并在相对较近的未来达成目标， 以捍卫我们的公信力。"库克强调。 她指出劳动力市场活力不足"可能使其易受下行冲击"，但仍形容市场"大致处于平衡状态"，并表示12月 微降的失业率已显现企稳迹象。 "总体来看，经济前景不确定性仍处高位，但 ...