Summary of FOMC Statement Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change, which aligns with market expectations [1] Interest Rate Decision - There was a notable division in the voting, with members Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [2] Inflation Outlook - The FOMC did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [3] Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high [4] Powell's Press Conference Insights - Current policy stance is considered favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, and future decisions will rely on incoming data [5] - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-over-year in June, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5%; most long-term inflation expectations align with the Fed's target [6] - The economy is viewed as being in a stable position, although indicators suggest a slowdown in growth; the large infrastructure bill is not seen as particularly stimulative [7] - The labor market remains balanced, but there are evident downside risks [8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with 30% to 40% of core inflation attributed to tariffs; it is considered premature to assess the full impact of tariffs [9] - The dissenting members are expected to clarify their positions in the coming days, with both advocating for a rate cut [10] Market Reaction - Following the statement, market volatility was minimal; however, during Powell's remarks, gold prices dropped by $50, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.38% and the 2-year yield approaching 4% [11] - U.S. stock markets faced downward pressure, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000 per coin [12]

Group 1 - The Brazilian central bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 15% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 15% [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects the bank's strategy to control inflation and stabilize the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, citing economic fluctuations due to trade issues and tariffs [1] Economic Growth and Forecast - Canada experienced strong economic growth in the first quarter due to preemptive exports related to tariff issues, but the GDP is expected to decline by approximately 1.5% in the second quarter [1] - The decline is attributed to a sharp reversal in exports following the initial surge and decreased demand for Canadian goods from the U.S. due to tariff threats [1] - Economic indicators suggest an increasing surplus in the Canadian economy since January [1] Trade Policy and Economic Outlook - Despite recent clarity in U.S. trade policies, the unpredictability of U.S. trade actions and ongoing trade negotiations remain a concern [1] - The Bank of Canada forecasts that under current tariff conditions, economic growth will rebound to about 1% in the second half of the year, with continued economic weakness expected until 2026 [1] - A quicker rebound in economic growth is anticipated if tariff issues are alleviated, while an escalation of these issues could lead to continued economic contraction within the year [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of Canada previously lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in March and has kept it unchanged in April and June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, citing economic fluctuations due to trade issues and tariffs [1] Economic Performance - Canada experienced strong economic growth in the first quarter due to preemptive exports related to tariff issues, but the GDP is expected to decline by approximately 1.5% in the second quarter [1] - The decline is attributed to a sharp reversal in exports following the initial surge and decreased demand for Canadian goods from the U.S. due to tariff threats [1] - Economic indicators suggest an increasing surplus in the Canadian economy since January [1] Trade Policy and Forecast - Despite recent clarity in U.S. trade policies, the unpredictability of U.S. trade actions and ongoing trade negotiations remain a concern, with new industry tariff threats persisting [1] - The Bank of Canada forecasts that under current tariff conditions, economic growth will rebound to about 1% in the second half of the year, supported by stabilizing exports and gradual increases in household spending [1] - However, economic weakness is expected to continue until 2026, with potential for faster growth if tariff issues are resolved or further contraction if they escalate [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of Canada previously lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in March, maintaining this rate in April and June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18%, marking the second rate cut since June 2023, aligning with market expectations [1][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - On July 25, the Central Bank of Russia announced a reduction of the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18%, which was anticipated by the market [1]. - This decision follows a previous rate cut in June, where the rate was reduced by 100 basis points [5]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - The Central Bank's statement indicated that inflation pressures are decreasing faster than expected, with the seasonally adjusted annualized price growth rate dropping from 8.2% in Q1 to 4.8% in Q2, and core inflation falling from 8.8% to 4.5% [4]. - The bank projects inflation to decline to 6.0% - 7.0% by 2025 and return to the target level of 4.0% in 2026 [4]. - Despite the downward trend in inflation, long-term inflation expectations remain high, posing a risk to sustainable inflation reduction [4]. External Environment and Economic Predictions - The Central Bank has revised its oil price forecast for 2025 and 2026 down to $55 per barrel, citing trade frictions among major economies and increased supply from OPEC+ [4]. - Consequently, the bank has also slightly lowered its forecasts for exports and current account surplus for the next two years [4]. Currency and Monetary Policy - The statement highlighted that the ruble's exchange rate is influenced by both current account flows and capital account factors, with high interest rates maintaining the attractiveness of ruble assets [5]. - The Central Bank aims to ensure that inflation sustainably returns to 4% by maintaining a tight monetary policy when necessary [5]. Future Rate Expectations - Analysts predict that the Central Bank will continue to gradually lower the benchmark interest rate by 100 to 200 basis points at each policy meeting, targeting a rate of 14% by the end of the year [6].

利比里亚央行将基准利率维持在17.25%。 ...

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据媒体22日援引知情人士透露，日本央行行长植田和男领导的政策委员会可能会在下周的会议上决定，将基准利率维持在0.5%不变。官员们认 为，首相石破茂近期的选举失利，对央行逐步加息的政策立场影响甚微。 日本央行倾向于在下周四（31日）的政策会议上维持基准利率不变，尽管其渐进加息的总体立场未变，但官员们希望在采取下一步行动前，观察 美日贸易谈判以及国内政局变化可能带来的财政政策影响。 静待贸易谈判与财政政策明朗化 日本央行官员认为，在经济前景符合预期的情况下，继续提高基准利率是合适的，但当前需要更多时间来评估外部和内部的不确定性。 据央视新闻，特朗普日前致信日本领导人，称将从8月1日起对从日本进口商品征收25%的关税。知情人士称，美日贸易谈判仍在进行之际，日本 央行需要分析最终协议对经济的潜在冲击。不过，央行官员认为这不会显著改变其经济展望，因为他们在5月份的最新展望报告中已预见到经济将 出现暂时停滞。 尽管石破茂领导的执政联盟在上议院选举中失去多数席位，但这并未立即改变日本央行的政策轨迹。然而，选举结果可能带来的连锁反应，尤其 是政府财政政策的走向，正成为央行关注的焦点。 知情人士称，日本央行决定暂缓加息的主要考 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate next week, indicating that the upcoming elections will have little impact on its monetary policy stance [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan plans to observe the effects of trade negotiations before making any decisions on interest rate hikes [1] - There is a concern that significant fiscal easing could lead to upward risks in prices [1]