Core Insights - The survey conducted by the New York Federal Reserve indicates that U.S. consumer inflation expectations remained stable in November, while views on employment prospects improved [2][4]. Group 1: Inflation Expectations - Consumers' inflation expectations for the next year held steady at 3.2%, while expectations for the next three and five years remained at 3% [5]. - The expectation of unemployment likelihood decreased to 13.8%, marking the lowest level this year [5]. Group 2: Labor Market Sentiment - There is an overall increase in consumer optimism regarding the labor market compared to the previous month, with a reduced likelihood of rising unemployment in the next year [5]. - Consumers believe that if they become unemployed, the chances of finding a new job are greater [5]. Group 3: Personal Financial Situation - A higher percentage of households reported a deterioration in their personal financial situation, with 39% indicating their current financial status is worse than a year ago, the highest level in two years [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of silver prices and the expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, highlighting a potential rate cut in December and its implications for the silver market. Group 1: Silver Price Analysis - As of December 8, the spot silver price is trading at $58.50 per ounce, with a daily range between $57.52 and $58.61 [1] - The silver trading strategies indicate that the price remains above the 200-hour EMA, which is positioned at $56.30, providing bullish support [4] - The MACD has turned negative, suggesting a buildup of downward momentum, while the RSI is at 50.82, indicating a neutral stance [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Nomura Securities has revised its expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, citing sufficient dovish signals for a "risk management-style rate cut" [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 86.2%, with a 13.8% chance of maintaining the current rate [3] - Key upcoming data to watch includes consumer inflation expectations and weekly jobless claims, which may influence the Fed's decision [3]

密歇根大学12月消费者信心指数初值升至53.3，高于52的预期及前值51；预期指数升至55，同样高于 51.2的预期及前值51。 近期美国劳动力市场数据呈现分化：11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，远低于增加5000人的预期(10月修 正后为增加4.7万人)；挑战者裁员数据从15.31万人降至7.13万人；初请失业金人数降至19.1万人，低于 22万人的预期及前值21.8万人。 据CME美联储观察工具显示，市场预计美联储在12月9-10日货币政策会议上降息25个基点的概率约为 87%。 地缘政治方面，俄乌和平谈判进展缓慢仍是市场焦点。克里姆林宫称近期与美国特使的会谈"令人鼓 舞"，但核心领土争端仍未解决，不确定性持续高企，为黄金等避险资产提供支撑。 【最新黄金行情解析】 摘要今日周六，黄金市场休市。周五(12月5日)美盘时段，现货黄金小幅走高，政策前景维持明确鸽派 基调。美国最新经济数据显示核心PCE通胀企稳、消费者通胀预期回落，进一步强化了市场对美联储下 周降息的预期，现货黄金尾盘报收4197.83美元/盎司，日线下跌0.21%，周线下跌0.74%。 今日周六，黄金市场休市。周五(12月5日)美盘时段，现货 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve reports an increase in U.S. consumer inflation expectations for July, attributed to an improved inflation outlook [1] Summary by Categories Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.09% in July, up from the previous value of 3.02% [1] - Three-year inflation expectations remained stable at 3% [1] - Five-year inflation expectations increased to 2.9%, marking the highest level since February [1] Consumer Sentiment - Consumers exhibit a stronger willingness to voluntarily leave their jobs [1] - There is increased confidence among consumers regarding their ability to find employment within the next three months [1]

Market Overview - The US dollar index declined by 0.155%, closing at 98.46, influenced by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller and a decrease in consumer inflation expectations [1][2] - Spot gold prices rose, reaching a high of $3361.2 per ounce, and ultimately closing up 0.34% at $3350.4 per ounce, benefiting from the weakening dollar and US Treasury yields [1][2] - Spot silver also experienced a three-day increase, closing up 0.14% at $38.2 per ounce [1][2] Key Developments - EU representatives are expected to hold a meeting this week to formulate responses to a potential no-deal scenario with US President Donald Trump, as the August 1 deadline approaches [3] - Trump's stance in tariff negotiations is perceived to be increasingly hardline, with no significant progress reported since last week's talks in Washington [3] - Negotiations are set to continue over the next two weeks [3] Trading Insights - For international gold, support levels are noted at $3341 or $3334, while resistance levels are at $3365 or $3385 [4] - For spot silver, support is identified at $38.00 or $37.80, with resistance at $38.40 or $38.65 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May fell slightly below expectations, with year-on-year CPI rising from 2.3% to 2.4%, while core CPI remained steady at 2.8% [1] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, lower than both the expected and previous value of 0.2%, and core CPI also rose by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.2% [1] - Factors contributing to the CPI's lower-than-expected performance include a decline in energy prices, a continued drop in automobile prices, and a slowdown in rent and super core services price increases [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the futures market pricing in an average of 1.97 rate cuts for the year, and the probability of a first cut in September rising from 50.9% to 61.3% [2] - The effective tariff rate in the US has decreased to 7.07%, significantly lower than the estimated 13-20% by overseas institutions, potentially due to tax avoidance measures [3] - The first sale rule allows importers to calculate tariffs based on the first sale price, which may mitigate the impact of increased tariffs [3] Group 3 - Concerns about inflation due to tariffs remain, with the potential for upward inflation risks unless tariffs are continuously suspended or canceled [5] - Consumer inflation expectations in the US have surged, with one-year and five-year expectations at near 45-year and 25-year highs, respectively [5] - Despite a significant number of brands and retail executives anticipating negative consumer reactions to price increases, a majority still plan to raise prices [6]

Group 1 - The median consumer inflation expectation in South Korea for May has dropped to its lowest level since January 2022 [1] - The consumer confidence index in South Korea for May recorded a value of 101.8, marking the highest level since October 2024 [1]