Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks reached important consensus, creating a 90 - day more relaxed trade window, which exceeded market expectations and triggered optimistic market sentiment. However, this optimism did not last, and trading volume and margin trading balance declined in the second half of the week. The confrontation over tariffs between the two countries may impact the market again after 90 days [2]. - In April, CPI increased slightly year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed. April's social financing data was mainly driven by government bond issuance, and new credit data was weak overall [2]. - Mid - week, the trading volume of 50ETF and 300ETF increased significantly, driving up the banking sector, possibly due to the allocation of state - owned funds. Overall, large - cap broad - based indexes outperformed small and mid - cap indexes this week [2]. - This week, the basis fluctuated little. The basis of IH and IF decreased slightly compared to last week, and the index trend was unclear. The basis of IC and IM decreased rapidly at the end of Friday, and the discount increased slightly compared to last week but remained at a historical low [2]. - The current volatility and discount are beneficial for over - the - counter products to increase coupon rates, and there may be short - term long - position increments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Environment - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks created a 90 - day more relaxed trade window, but the optimistic sentiment did not last. The confrontation over tariffs may impact the market again after 90 days [2]. - In April, CPI increased slightly year - on - year, PPI decline narrowed, social financing was mainly driven by government bond issuance, and new credit data was weak [2]. Market Performance - Mid - week, the trading volume of 50ETF and 300ETF increased significantly, driving up the banking sector. Large - cap broad - based indexes outperformed small and mid - cap indexes, with Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3400 points and then falling back [2]. Basis Situation - This week, the basis fluctuated little. IH and IF basis decreased slightly, IC and IM basis decreased rapidly at the end of Friday, and the discount increased slightly but remained at a historical low [2]. - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [3]. Recent Forecast Conclusion - The chart shows the real and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM over a period of time [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the overseas environment was stable with no unexpected risk events, while domestic consumption data was good, with the sales of key national retail and catering enterprises increasing by 6.3% year - on - year, and service consumption continuing to heat up [3] - The policy content at the State Council Information Office press conference during the week was not unexpected, but the implementation time was, and the policy coordination improved, which was an important support for market sentiment [3] - The reform plan for public funds may lead to a shift of funds to benchmark broad - based indexes and large - cap styles, and the incremental funds for large - cap varieties may further increase [3] - The Fed maintained the interest rate target unchanged, which was in line with market expectations [3] - After the holiday, the trading volume of the entire A - share market rebounded, and the index continued to fill the gap in April. The weekly gains of each broad - based index were around 2%. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index has filled the gap since April 3rd, while the other three indexes still have some distance to go [3] - It is expected that the probability of the basis spread narrowing in the future is relatively high, and it is advisable to temporarily shift positions to near - month contracts in May to wait for the low - cost window after the narrowing of the basis spread [3] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs This Week's Review - The overseas environment during the May Day holiday was stable, and domestic consumption data was good. The policy coordination improved, and the public fund reform plan was implemented. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged. The trading volume of the A - share market rebounded, and the index continued to fill the gap. The basis spread was relatively stable, and it is expected to narrow in the future [3] Recent Forecast Conclusions - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4]