Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The joint issuance of the "Opinions on Deeply Promoting the Comprehensive Reform Pilot in Shenzhen to Deepen Reform and Innovation and Expand Opening - up" by the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council may prompt Hong Kong - listed tech giants to list in A - shares, trigger the rapid inclusion rules of several A - share broad - based indices, and promote index - level market trends while enhancing the "new economy" and "new technology" content of the indices for long - term upward expectations [2] - The China - US trade representatives reached an agreement framework in London, canceling some additional tariffs and reciprocal counter - tariffs, but the impact on the index level was not significant [2] - The US May PPI had a mild increase, core inflation was better than expected, and the labor market cooled, leading the market to resume the expectation of two Fed rate cuts this year [2] - Recent south - bound capital flow has boosted the Hong Kong stock market, while the A - share market has been mainly volatile, with a slight increase in daily average trading volume to about 1.3 trillion yuan per day and a slow return of margin trading, with the margin balance rising above 1.8 trillion yuan this week [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3400 points and pulled back on Friday, resulting in a negative weekly line. All broad - based indices declined slightly, with the decline ranging from 0.2% to 0.8% for the four scale indices from SSE 50 to CSI 1000, and CSI 1000 having a larger decline [2] - Affected by short - term risk - aversion sentiment and news, the non - ferrous and energy sectors rose significantly [2] - This week, the basis of each variety remained stable. IH switched from premium to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM remained around 10% and 15% respectively, with little change in the term structure. The annualized cost of near - month contracts was low, and near - end hedging could be maintained [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Forecast Conclusion - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4] Weekly Review - The A - share market was mainly volatile this week, with daily average trading volume slightly increasing to about 1.3 trillion yuan per day, and the margin balance rising above 1.8 trillion yuan [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3400 points and pulled back on Friday, and all broad - based indices declined slightly, with the decline of the four scale indices from SSE 50 to CSI 1000 ranging from 0.2% to 0.8%, and CSI 1000 having a larger decline [2] - The non - ferrous and energy sectors rose significantly due to short - term risk - aversion sentiment and news [2] - This week, the basis of each variety remained stable. IH switched from premium to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM remained around 10% and 15% respectively, with little change in the term structure [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The reduction of the 5 - month LPR by 10bp and domestic banks' cuts in deposit rates may lead to a shift of deposits, potentially lowering yields of other currency and fixed - income products and increasing the activity of equity investment [2] - The IPO rhythm of technology companies is expected to significantly increase, and the increased supply of new stocks may siphon off funds from small - cap stocks, constraining their gains. Meanwhile, long - term investment reform pilots and the arrival of insurance funds' off - balance - sheet private equity funds may support the performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks, with the market style likely to continue favoring large - cap over small - cap stocks [2] - The trading volume of the entire A - share market has not improved, and the index is still in a volatile trend. The basis of IH and IF remains flat compared to last week, while the discounts of IC and IM have further widened due to the stock game in small - cap stocks, but the discounts are expected to converge [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IM will strengthen next week, while the basis of IC will weaken [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Market Policy Impact - The 5 - month LPR was cut by 10bp, and domestic banks reduced deposit rates, with the one - year fixed - deposit rate falling below 1%. This may cause a shift of deposits, affecting the yields of other products and increasing equity investment activity [2] - The press conference mentioned deepening the IPO system reform for innovation and entrepreneurship and supporting the listing of technology companies, which will increase the supply of new stocks and may impact small - cap stocks. Long - term investment reform pilots and the arrival of insurance funds' off - balance - sheet private equity funds may support large - cap blue - chip stocks [2] Market Performance - The daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was slightly over one trillion, and the index was in a volatile trend. On Friday, there were large sell - offs in index ETFs, causing a rapid decline in broad - based indices. The weekly lines of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 turned down, and the CSI 500 and 1000 fell by over 1% [2] Basis Situation - The basis of IH and IF remained at the same level as last week, while the discounts of IC and IM widened due to the small - cap stock game. The widening of single - day discounts for a long time may be due to speculative hedging. With the increasing congestion in small - cap stocks, the discounts are expected to converge [2] Basis Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IM will strengthen next week, while the basis of IC will weaken [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks reached important consensus, creating a 90 - day more relaxed trade window, which exceeded market expectations and triggered optimistic market sentiment. However, this optimism did not last, and trading volume and margin trading balance declined in the second half of the week. The confrontation over tariffs between the two countries may impact the market again after 90 days [2]. - In April, CPI increased slightly year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed. April's social financing data was mainly driven by government bond issuance, and new credit data was weak overall [2]. - Mid - week, the trading volume of 50ETF and 300ETF increased significantly, driving up the banking sector, possibly due to the allocation of state - owned funds. Overall, large - cap broad - based indexes outperformed small and mid - cap indexes this week [2]. - This week, the basis fluctuated little. The basis of IH and IF decreased slightly compared to last week, and the index trend was unclear. The basis of IC and IM decreased rapidly at the end of Friday, and the discount increased slightly compared to last week but remained at a historical low [2]. - The current volatility and discount are beneficial for over - the - counter products to increase coupon rates, and there may be short - term long - position increments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Environment - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks created a 90 - day more relaxed trade window, but the optimistic sentiment did not last. The confrontation over tariffs may impact the market again after 90 days [2]. - In April, CPI increased slightly year - on - year, PPI decline narrowed, social financing was mainly driven by government bond issuance, and new credit data was weak [2]. Market Performance - Mid - week, the trading volume of 50ETF and 300ETF increased significantly, driving up the banking sector. Large - cap broad - based indexes outperformed small and mid - cap indexes, with Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3400 points and then falling back [2]. Basis Situation - This week, the basis fluctuated little. IH and IF basis decreased slightly, IC and IM basis decreased rapidly at the end of Friday, and the discount increased slightly but remained at a historical low [2]. - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [3]. Recent Forecast Conclusion - The chart shows the real and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM over a period of time [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the overseas environment was stable with no unexpected risk events, while domestic consumption data was good, with the sales of key national retail and catering enterprises increasing by 6.3% year - on - year, and service consumption continuing to heat up [3] - The policy content at the State Council Information Office press conference during the week was not unexpected, but the implementation time was, and the policy coordination improved, which was an important support for market sentiment [3] - The reform plan for public funds may lead to a shift of funds to benchmark broad - based indexes and large - cap styles, and the incremental funds for large - cap varieties may further increase [3] - The Fed maintained the interest rate target unchanged, which was in line with market expectations [3] - After the holiday, the trading volume of the entire A - share market rebounded, and the index continued to fill the gap in April. The weekly gains of each broad - based index were around 2%. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index has filled the gap since April 3rd, while the other three indexes still have some distance to go [3] - It is expected that the probability of the basis spread narrowing in the future is relatively high, and it is advisable to temporarily shift positions to near - month contracts in May to wait for the low - cost window after the narrowing of the basis spread [3] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs This Week's Review - The overseas environment during the May Day holiday was stable, and domestic consumption data was good. The policy coordination improved, and the public fund reform plan was implemented. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged. The trading volume of the A - share market rebounded, and the index continued to fill the gap. The basis spread was relatively stable, and it is expected to narrow in the future [3] Recent Forecast Conclusions - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4]