Group 1 - The 14th National People's Congress (NPC) is set to open at 9 AM today in Beijing, with Premier Li Qiang delivering the government work report [2] - The NPC spokesperson highlighted the rise of companies like DeepSeek as evidence of China's innovative and inclusive approach to technological development [3] - The Ministry of Commerce has placed 15 US entities, including Lidos, on an export control list, indicating ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations [6] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai has repurchased 822,200 shares at a cost of 1.2 billion yuan [9] - SF Holding has repurchased 20.77 million shares for 758 million yuan [9] - The company Jiangnan Yifan's board members and shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 4% [9] Group 3 - Ningbo Port reported a container throughput of 3.35 million TEUs in February, a year-on-year increase of 11% [10] - The North Bay Port achieved a cargo throughput of 23.98 million tons in February, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.56% [10] - Hainan Huatie's subsidiary signed a 3.69 billion yuan computing power service agreement [10] Group 4 - Long-term demand for computing power remains strong, with leading cloud service providers benefiting from enhanced resource utilization [12] - The trend of decreasing model usage costs and improving model performance is expected to drive further AI application scenarios [12] - Private cloud solutions are anticipated to maintain investment value due to the demand for localized AI model deployment [12]

Group 1 - The Spring Festival this year showed characteristics of a significant return home, with passenger turnover volume in January 2025 increasing by 17.6% year-on-year [1][8] - The congestion index in 39 cities recorded 1.80 as of February 28, indicating a 102.0% increase compared to the average of the last two weeks before the festival [9] - The subway passenger volume in the last week of February was 97.1% of the average from the two weeks prior to the festival [9] Group 2 - The industrial sector's operating rates showed mixed results year-on-year, with significant increases in steel and automotive sectors [2][10] - As of February 27-28, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 2.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2][10] - The operating rate for styrene increased by 18.1 percentage points year-on-year, while PVC and PTA saw declines of 2.2 and 3.9 percentage points respectively [2][11] Group 3 - Construction site resumption rates and labor utilization rates remain below last year's levels, but funding availability has improved year-on-year [3][12] - As of February 27, the resumption rate for 13,532 construction sites was 64.6%, and the labor utilization rate was 61.7% [3][12] - The cement dispatch rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points, indicating a recovery in physical workload [3][12] Group 4 - The new visa-free policy has led to a significant increase in international flight operations, with a 24.6% year-on-year increase in average daily international flights in February [4][14] - Inbound tourism generated substantial consumption, with 13.19 million inbound tourists in 2024, a 60.8% increase from 2023, and total consumption reaching $94.2 billion, up 77.8% [4][14] Group 5 - The film box office and audience numbers have significantly rebounded, with a 63.3% increase in average daily box office revenue and a 57.9% increase in average daily audience numbers in January-February [5][15] - The box office for the Spring Festival reached a record high of 9.507 billion yuan, a 16.6% increase year-on-year [5][15] Group 6 - The real estate market showed signs of recovery, with a 35.6% year-on-year increase in average daily transaction area in 30 major cities in February [6][16] - The average daily transaction area reached 37.1 million square meters in the last week of February, close to the average of November last year [6][16] Group 7 - Automotive sales showed a mixed performance, with a 4% year-on-year decline in retail sales as of February 23, but a significant 77% increase in new energy vehicle sales [7][17] - The wholesale volume of passenger vehicles increased by 60% year-on-year in February [7][17] Group 8 - Home appliance sales maintained relatively high growth rates, with online sales of air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators showing significant year-on-year increases [8][18] - The offline sales of these appliances also demonstrated strong growth, indicating sustained demand supported by favorable policies [8][18] Group 9 - Container throughput continued to rise, with a 19.8% year-on-year increase in February, reflecting stable export conditions [9][19] - The overall cargo throughput at domestic ports also showed a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [9][19] Group 10 - The industrial price index has shown fluctuations but remains near the high point since October, with a 1.9% increase from the end of January [10][20] - The prices of energy and building materials have slightly decreased, while prices for non-ferrous metals and chemicals have increased [10][20]

宏观 证券研究报告 2 月 PMI 反映复工复产节奏正常推进 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 03 日 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（2 月第 4 周） [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] 2 [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E 正文目录 | 一、 市场宏观变量回顾 3 | | --- | | 二、 上周宏观事件分析 4 | | 2.1 2 月 PMI 反映复工复产节奏正常推进，出口保持稳定 4 | | 三、当周关注 6 | 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 市场有风险 入市需谨慎 - 1 - GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数 ...