1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. The market trends are influenced by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [4][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In the short - term, it's a volatile market with a positive spread between different contract months. Long PX and short SC, or long PX and short EB are recommended strategies. Cost - wise, geopolitical conflicts lead to a rebound in crude oil, supporting PX valuation. The recovery of polyester terminal demand drives up the valuation of the aromatic polyester chain [15]. - **PTA**: A positive spread between different contract months is recommended, along with long PTA and short SC. In terms of supply - demand, PTA supply decreases while demand increases, maintaining a de - stocking pattern. However, high processing fees lead to postponed maintenance of some devices, so a short - on - rallies strategy is suggested [15]. - **MEG**: It has a weak unilateral trend. Long PTA and short MEG is recommended. The supply of ethylene glycol will continue to increase, with easier restarts of coal - based and oil - based devices and sufficient imported sources, making it difficult to reduce port inventories [16]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move sideways. Its futures prices, trading volumes, and positions have changed, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The semi - steel tire industry faces production and sales pressure, while the full - steel tire industry maintains flexible production scheduling [17][18][20]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - With the rebound of crude oil, the synthetic rubber market has support for sideways movement. The cost of butadiene is stable, and the demand for butadiene from the synthetic rubber end increases. Although the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are neutral, the low valuation provides support [21][23]. 3.4 Asphalt - The asphalt market is expected to be strong and volatile due to the rebound of oil prices. The trading volume and positions of asphalt futures have changed, and the basis has increased. The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt enterprises has decreased, factory inventories have decreased slightly, and social inventories have increased slightly [24][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - The LLDPE market has a weak trend. The market price continues to fall, affected by factors such as the trade war, new production capacity, low maintenance volume, and weak demand [34][35]. 3.6 PP - The PP price has a slight decline, but the low - price transactions are good. The domestic PP market has a slight decline, with weak downstream demand and general trading sentiment [39][40]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term but will face pressure later. After the May Day holiday, the price has rebounded, but in the second quarter, it is in the off - season of demand. The supply may be affected by the profit situation of chlorine - consuming downstream industries [42][44]. 3.8 Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move sideways. The spot price of pulp has declined, the futures price has weakened, and the downstream demand is weak [46][48]. 3.9 Methanol - Methanol is under pressure and volatile. The spot price has declined, the port inventory has increased significantly, and in the medium - term, it is in a weak pattern of high production, high imports, high profits, and gradual inventory accumulation [50][53]. 3.10 Urea - The support at the lower level of urea has increased. The futures price has risen, and the production enterprises' inventory is expected to decline. The demand for top - dressing in Northeast China and summer fertilizers in Central China is being released, and the speculative behavior of traders has increased [55][57]. 3.11 Styrene - Styrene is expected to be weak and volatile. During the May Day holiday, crude oil and pure benzene prices have fallen. The supply of pure benzene increases while demand decreases, and the downstream negative feedback will gradually be transmitted to the styrene link [59][60]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The domestic soda ash market is stable and volatile, with some enterprises reducing production, and the downstream demand is tepid [62][63]. 3.13 LPG - For LPG, the cost support has strengthened, but the supply - demand relationship has weakened month - on - month. The futures price has changed, and the spreads have decreased. The operating rates of related industries such as PDH have declined [65][72]. 3.14 PVC - PVC is expected to be weak and volatile. After the holiday, the domestic PVC spot market is in a stalemate, with high supply, increased inventory, and weak expected demand [75][77]. 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has a weak opening during the day and is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has significantly corrected following crude oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market has temporarily stabilized [80]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in a low - level sideways movement, and a light - position reverse spread strategy between October and December contracts is recommended. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in relevant indices have changed, and the real - time freight rates of different carriers also vary [82].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategy of Matthew Kidman, a senior fund manager at Centennial Asset Management, who has increased cash holdings in response to market volatility and is cautiously optimistic about future investments [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Kidman raised the cash position of the Level 18 fund to 30% during a period of high market volatility, marking a potential market peak [1]. - Due to concerns over U.S. trade policies, he further increased cash holdings to 50% and shifted focus to large-cap stocks like Coles, Telstra, and AGL Energy for safety [3]. - The fund's flexibility allows for significant adjustments in cash positions, which Kidman views as a competitive advantage [3]. Group 2: Performance and Returns - The Level 18 fund achieved a return of 11.4% over the past year, outperforming the Australian stock accumulation index (2.2%) and small-cap index (1.3% decline) [5]. - Since its inception in 2012, the fund has averaged a net return of 12.2%, surpassing its benchmark of 9.4% [5]. - Recent successful investments include companies like Generation Development Group, RPM Global, and Zip, with notable performances from Bega Cheese, Codan, and ClearView Wealth in March [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Kidman is optimistic about the potential for a trade agreement between the Trump administration and major partners, which could prevent a global recession [5]. - He anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates up to five times this year, stimulating household spending and benefiting consumer stocks [5]. - The fund is focusing on retail stocks and local businesses on the East Coast, which are less affected by U.S. tariffs and more favored by investors [6]. Group 4: Caution and Risks - Kidman remains cautious about the economic situation in Victoria, expressing concerns over the state's fiscal challenges and lack of consumer confidence [6]. - He warns of the potential for a significant downturn if a trade agreement is not reached, which could lead to a 25% to 35% decline in corporate earnings and a 30% drop in the stock market from peak levels [6]. Group 5: Background of Matthew Kidman - Kidman transitioned from journalism to investment management, starting his career at Wilson Asset Management before co-founding Centennial Asset Management [3][7]. - The fund initially managed only its own capital, gradually expanding to external investors, and currently manages approximately AUD 230 million, with a cap expected at AUD 300 million [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend - strength ratings for individual commodities: - PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, PP, methanol, urea, LPG, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, short - fiber, and bottle - chip trend strengths are rated 0 (neutral) [10][11][13][17][20][21][30][39][56][60][64][74][80][87][89][91] - LLDPE,烧碱,苯乙烯, PVC trend strengths are rated - 1 (weakly bearish) [35][46][65][85] - 纯碱 trend strength is rated 1 (weakly bullish) [72] 2. Report's Core View - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical commodities, including market fundamentals, price trends, and trading strategies. It considers factors such as supply - demand relationships, plant maintenance, trade policies, and cost changes to evaluate the short - and medium - term trends of each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Low processing fees lead to more overseas plant maintenance, and Asian PX operating rate drops to 68.6%. May is a de - stocking period, and new plants are expected to be put into operation in June, with processing fees likely to expand. Strategy: long PX short SC [10] - **PTA**: Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Sino - US tariff easing improves terminal demand expectations, and polyester sales improve. However, PTA and PX plant maintenance is concentrated, and the basis and spread are at a high level. Strategy: long PTA short MEG, avoid chasing the basis and spread [11] - **MEG**: Long PTA short MEG. The number of warehouse receipts is small, and there may be a positive spread arbitrage in the delivery month. Pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread for the far - month contracts [11] Rubber - It is expected to trade sideways. The trading volume and open interest of rubber futures decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. The supply and demand fundamentals are relatively stable [12][13][14][15] Synthetic Rubber - It will oscillate in a pattern with limited drivers. The cost of butadiene is expected to support the price, and the supply of butadiene is expected to increase. The demand for synthetic rubber has increased, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The current fundamentals have a neutral impact on synthetic rubber [17][18][20] Asphalt - De - stocking continues, and crude oil prices decline slightly. The weekly production of domestic asphalt decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased. The trend is neutral [21][30][31] LLDPE - Short - term oscillation, long - term pressure. Trade wars and new capacity additions bring supply - demand imbalances, and the demand for downstream products is weak. Strategy: bearish on polyethylene profit [32][33][34] PP - Prices oscillate, and trading volume is average. The increase in PP futures has a limited impact on the spot market, and downstream pre - holiday stocking has ended. The trend is neutral [38][39] 烧碱 - The medium - term trend is weak. Trade wars and seasonal factors affect demand, and the supply side has high operating rates. Strategy: short 06 and 07 contracts, 6 - 9 reverse spread [41][43][44] Paper Pulp - It is expected to oscillate weakly. The price of paper pulp futures decreased, and the market is divided. The port inventory is high, and the market sentiment is bearish. Strategy: pay attention to port de - stocking and South American policies [47][48][49] Logs - Weakly oscillate. The trading volume and open interest of log futures decreased, and the expected arrival of coniferous logs decreased. The trend is neutral [51][53][55] Methanol - Oscillate. The spot price of methanol is weak, and the port inventory decreased last week. Geopolitical issues and MTO operating rates affect the medium - term trend [56][57][59] Urea - Factories promote sales before the holiday, and trading volume improves. Pay attention to the sustainability of the improvement. The inventory of urea enterprises increased, and the futures price rebounded after the spot price stabilized [62][63][64] Styrene - Weakly oscillate. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand decreases. The downstream demand for styrene has resilience, but the terminal default risk is increasing [65][66][69] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The operation of soda ash plants is stable, and downstream demand is stable. The market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [70][72] LPG - As the delivery approaches, the structure continues to strengthen. The prices of LPG futures increased, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased. The trend is neutral [74][80][81] PVC - Weakly oscillate. The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is limited. High production and high inventory structures are difficult to change in the short term [84][85] Fuel Oil - Weakly oscillate, and short - term fluctuations narrow. Low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil in the short term, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils rebounds slightly [87] Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Short - fiber and bottle - chip are expected to rebound following raw materials. For bottle - chip, short the processing fees on rallies. The trading volume of short - fiber futures increased, and the sales of polyester bottle - chip plants improved [89][90]

① 近期美股遭遇迅猛回调，此次跨越 16 个交易日的调整是美股历史上最快的下跌行情之一 （过去 75 年只发生过 6 次）。此轮暴跌源于特朗普关税政策的不确定性、疲软经济数据及市场 恐慌情绪升温。 ② 历史经验显示，极端下跌行情多由政策冲击（如关税）或系统性风险（如金融危机）触发， 但恐慌后往往孕育反弹机遇。2025 的特朗普关税，与 2018 年贸易战引发的市场震荡高度相 似。 ③ RockFlow 投研团队认为，投资者可以采取多空策略（反向ETF）、波动率对冲（VIX相关工 具）及"小熊保险"等组合拳，同时利用"抄底宝"捕捉超跌优质资产。投资本质上是一种乐观的 行为。我们仍然保持长期乐观。 RockFlow 本文共3517字， 阅读需约13分钟 划重点 过去一个月，美股迎来迅猛回调，市值蒸发逾 4 万亿美元，继 2024 年 11 月特朗普当选总统后美股取得的涨幅全部化为乌有，投资者对令人担忧的 市场迹象保持警惕。 本篇文章，RockFlow 投研团队将带你深入探究特朗普上任以来美股为何经历如此剧烈的下跌，以及参考美股的总统行情表现，当下是否是一个抄 底的好时机。最后，我们将为你分享四种有效的波动市场应对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid decline in the US stock market, characterized as one of the fastest in history, is primarily driven by uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies, weak economic data, and heightened market panic. The market has lost over $4 trillion in value, erasing gains made since Trump's election in November 2024 [2][3][24]. Group 1: Causes of the Market Decline - The S&P 500 index officially dropped over 10% as of March 13, marking a significant adjustment within just 16 trading days, one of the fastest declines recorded [7][24]. - Historical patterns indicate that extreme downturns are often triggered by policy shocks or systemic risks, with the current situation resembling the market turbulence seen during the 2018 trade war [24]. - Key factors contributing to the current market turmoil include: 1. Trump's frequent references to tariff policies, which have increased corporate costs and heightened trade uncertainties, threatening economic growth [8][9]. 2. Weak economic indicators since February, showing a slowdown in growth, rising inflation pressures, and declining consumer confidence [8][9]. 3. Deteriorating market sentiment, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index dropping to 21, indicating extreme fear among investors [9]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - Since 1950, there have been 40 instances where the S&P 500 index has corrected by more than 10%, with only six of these occurring within 20 days, highlighting the severity of the current situation [7][8]. - The article draws parallels between the current market conditions and previous downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, which were also marked by significant policy and economic uncertainties [8][9]. Group 3: Strategies for Navigating Market Volatility - The RockFlow research team suggests several strategies for investors to navigate the current volatility: 1. Implementing long-short strategies using inverse ETFs to capitalize on market reversals [17]. 2. Utilizing volatility strategies to take advantage of increased market fluctuations, particularly through VIX-related instruments [19]. 3. Employing "small bear insurance" by purchasing put options to hedge against short-term declines while maintaining long-term positions [21][23]. 4. Utilizing "bottom-fishing" tools to identify and invest in undervalued assets during market downturns [24].