- The report introduces the "China Securities Multi-Asset Risk Parity Index (China Securities MARP)" as a representative of multi-asset portfolios, constructed using a risk parity approach to include stocks, bonds, and gold, aiming to enhance returns, reduce volatility, and optimize the Sharpe ratio[14][15] - The construction process of the China Securities MARP involves selecting multiple asset classes (e.g., stocks, bonds, gold) and applying a risk parity methodology to allocate weights such that each asset class contributes equally to the portfolio's overall risk. Historical data from 2015 onwards was used for backtesting[14][15] - The backtesting results of the China Securities MARP show improved returns, reduced volatility, and an optimized risk-return ratio compared to single-asset investments[14][15]

Core Insights - The public fund industry is poised for significant growth, particularly in the "fixed income +" sector, driven by a massive migration of deposits estimated at 50 trillion yuan [2][3] - The competition for "fixed income +" business is intensifying, with a consensus that the current scale of 3 trillion yuan is just the beginning, as institutions increase their investments [2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The total scale of "fixed income +" funds reached a historical peak of 3 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking a 9% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 56% year-on-year growth [2] - The second-tier bond funds saw significant expansion, with a scale of 1.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a 19% increase, primarily driven by new capital inflows from institutional investors [2][3] - The market is expected to see a continued rise in the popularity of "fixed income +" strategies, with a focus on dynamic adjustments based on market trends [3][10] Group 2: Company Performance - E Fund remains the leader in "fixed income +" management with a scale of 242.5 billion yuan, followed closely by Invesco Great Wall and Huatai-PB, with 231.9 billion yuan and 147.2 billion yuan respectively [5][6] - Several companies, including Yongying Fund, have entered the top 12 in "fixed income +" management scale, indicating a competitive landscape [4][6] - The top 15 fund companies have shown substantial growth in their "fixed income +" scales from 2021 to 2025, with notable increases in assets under management [5] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment is becoming more favorable for "fixed income +" products, with expectations of accelerated product approvals as high-interest deposits mature [7] - Fund companies are encouraged to actively engage in "fixed income +" strategies to capture migrating funds, with a focus on clear risk-return profiles to attract institutional investors [7][9] - The approval process for new products is becoming more refined, with faster pathways for higher-rated fund companies [7] Group 4: Strategic Developments - E Fund is evolving its strategy from fixed income enhancement to a multi-asset allocation model, aiming for comprehensive synergy in investment research [8] - Southern Fund has introduced the "优生优养计划" to emphasize product design and investor experience, with "fixed income +" and FOF as key components [9] - BlackRock is also focusing on "fixed income +" as a priority in its domestic fund strategy, leveraging its extensive multi-asset business framework [9]

Core Insights - Wintermute reports that from the end of 2024, the correlation between retail funds in cryptocurrency and U.S. stocks will shift from positive to negative, with record inflows into U.S. stocks while the cryptocurrency market remains cautious [1] - The market capitalization of altcoins is weakening alongside retail activity, indicating a decline in interest [1] - Data shows that the volatility of BTC/NDX is continuously decreasing, potentially falling below 2 times in the first half of 2025, which suggests easier capital switching between these asset classes due to tools like ETFs and cross-platform trading [1] - The report posits that retail activity in U.S. stocks has become an important leading indicator for the cryptocurrency market, necessitating a multi-asset allocation perspective for investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive outlook for China's capital market in 2025, highlighting its resilience and the successful completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. Group 1: Capital Market Development - In 2025, China's capital market achieved a historic milestone with the total market value of A-shares surpassing 100 trillion yuan, reflecting both scale and quality improvements [3]. - The "1+N" policy framework continues to be effectively implemented, enhancing the multi-tiered capital market system to support technological innovation and industrial upgrades [3]. Group 2: Company Strategy - The company views 2025 as a critical year for deepening its local presence and expanding its strategic layout in the Chinese market, adhering to the principle of "global vision, local wisdom" [3]. - The company has diversified its product line to include active equity, fixed income+, and enhanced index strategies, showcasing its expertise in quantitative fundamental investment and multi-asset allocation [3]. Group 3: Research and Investment Approach - The company is committed to enhancing its research capabilities by integrating global quantitative models with localized research, aiming to provide forward-looking strategies that align with the unique characteristics of the Chinese market [4]. - The company emphasizes a rigorous investment research process, strict risk budget management, and multi-dimensional drawdown control mechanisms to improve long-term returns while enhancing the investor experience [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The company expresses confidence in the long-term development of China's capital market, anticipating continued optimization of the policy environment and the release of vitality in private enterprises, which will benefit active equity investment strategies [4]. - The company believes that the capital market will maintain a stable and progressive approach under supportive macro policies and a moderately loose monetary environment, fostering new stability and growth momentum [4].

Core Viewpoint - The public fund of funds (FOF) is undergoing a silent revolution, with significant growth in both market acceptance and product diversity, leading to a resurgence in investment opportunities and strategies [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The average return of public FOFs over the past year is 17.9%, with top products capturing over 90% of this return, and the market size expected to exceed 244.1 billion by the end of 2025 [6]. - In just over a month, 36 new FOFs were launched, with several products raising over 4 billion in their initial offerings, making FOFs the third-largest issuance category this year after mixed and index funds [9]. - The liquidity of new FOF products has significantly increased, with holding periods reduced to 3 or 6 months, reflecting a shift in investment strategy towards more diversified asset classes [10][11]. Group 2: Structural Changes - The recognition of FOFs by institutional investors has risen, with the proportion of institutional holdings increasing from 16.34% at the end of 2024 to 26.82% by the end of 2025, a notable increase of 10.48 percentage points [12]. - The growth in institutional investment is primarily driven by mixed-asset FOFs, which are expected to support a second growth curve for FOFs [13]. Group 3: Historical Context - FOFs in China began in 2017 but faced challenges during the 2018 bear market, leading to a lack of investor confidence due to poor performance and management practices [15][16]. - The recovery in the stock market in 2019 marked the beginning of a prosperous phase for FOFs, with significant growth in both the number and size of pension-related FOF products [17][18]. - By the end of 2021, the size of FOFs surged from 10.7 billion at the end of 2018 to 210 billion, representing a growth of 1862% [19]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for FOF management has shifted, with the concentration of top managers decreasing slightly, as new players emerge in the market [24][26]. - By the end of 2025, E Fund has become the largest FOF manager with 21.1 billion, surpassing previously dominant firms, indicating a significant shift in market preferences towards diversified and multi-strategy FOFs [25]. Group 5: Sales and Distribution Innovations - The sales model for FOFs is evolving, with banks like China Merchants Bank and China Construction Bank playing a crucial role in driving growth through innovative distribution strategies [27][28]. - The "TREE Long-term Plan" by China Merchants Bank and the "Dragon Profit Plan" by China Construction Bank have successfully launched multiple FOF products, significantly boosting the overall market size [28][30]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The public FOF sector is transitioning into a phase characterized by mature strategies, empowered channels, and diverse demand, with expectations for continued growth driven by institutional investment and evolving wealth management needs [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential surge in "fixed income +" products as a new destination for capital, driven by a significant amount of deposits maturing in 2026, amidst a low-interest-rate environment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Context - In 2026, approximately 75 trillion yuan of resident fixed-term deposits are expected to mature, with 67 trillion yuan being one year or longer, marking a 12% and 17% increase compared to 2025, respectively [2]. - The current weak consumer sentiment and limited real estate demand suggest that a substantial portion of these funds may flow into investment areas, indicating a market consensus on "deposit migration" [2][3]. Group 2: Growth of "Fixed Income +" Products - The "fixed income +" products have evolved over the past decade, adapting to investor needs and enhancing asset allocation and value discovery capabilities, positioning them for renewed popularity in 2026 [2][3]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to show marginal improvement, with a "restorative growth" pattern, leading to a low-risk appetite among bank depositors who prioritize capital preservation [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Support and Investor Education - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's 2025 action plan emphasizes the development of low-volatility and asset allocation products, which aligns with the investment strategies of many "fixed income +" products [3][4]. - Increased investor education and acceptance of "fixed income +" products are anticipated to further drive their adoption [3]. Group 4: Performance of "Fixed Income +" Products - By the end of 2025, the total market size of "fixed income +" funds reached a historical high of 2.735 trillion yuan, reflecting a growing trend in multi-asset allocation [4]. - Several "fixed income +" products from博时基金 (Bosera Fund) have shown strong performance, with notable returns exceeding their benchmarks, indicating effective asset management strategies [9][10]. Group 5: Investment Strategy and Team Expertise - 博时基金 emphasizes two core capabilities in its "fixed income +" product strategy: broad asset allocation and relative pricing ability, supported by a seasoned investment research team [5][8]. - The team is led by experienced professionals who focus on balancing risks and returns, utilizing a comprehensive approach to asset management that includes both fixed income and equity investments [6][7][8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the psychological challenges of investing in the stock market, particularly in the context of the A-share market, which is characterized by cycles of bull and bear markets [4][6][10] - It emphasizes the importance of managing psychological stress during market downturns, suggesting that the experience of enduring a bear market can be more painful than the financial losses themselves [8][13][27] - The author expresses skepticism about the notion of a long-term bull market, preferring to adopt a cautious approach that prioritizes mental well-being over maximizing returns [14][15][22] Group 2 - The concept of "fish tail" market conditions is introduced, indicating that while there may still be opportunities for profit, the risks and difficulties of timing the market increase significantly as one approaches market peaks [10][11][12] - The article critiques the linear extrapolation of long-term investment returns, arguing that the reality of enduring market volatility over decades can be psychologically taxing [16][18][21] - It highlights the importance of diversifying investments across multiple asset classes to mitigate the psychological burden of market fluctuations and to enhance overall investment experience [23][25][27] Group 3 - The author introduces the "Ulcer Index" as a measure of the psychological impact of drawdowns in investments, emphasizing that managing the duration and magnitude of losses is crucial for investor well-being [27] - The article concludes with a reminder that preserving capital and maintaining a sense of agency during market downturns is more valuable than chasing short-term gains [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming maturity of a significant amount of residential time deposits in 2026, estimated at approximately 75 trillion yuan, is expected to drive funds towards "fixed income +" products, as traditional deposit rates decline below 1% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Context - In 2026, a large volume of three-year and five-year time deposits will be repriced, with an estimated 67 trillion yuan of one-year and above deposits maturing, which is higher than the market's estimate of around 50 trillion yuan [1]. - The growth in maturing deposits compared to 2025 is projected to be 12% for all deposits and 17% for one-year and above deposits, translating to an increase of 8 trillion yuan and 10 trillion yuan respectively [1]. - The current weak consumer sentiment and limited real estate demand suggest that a significant portion of these funds may flow into investment areas, indicating a market consensus on "deposit migration" [1]. Group 2: Product Development - The "fixed income +" products have evolved over more than a decade, entering a new stage of development characterized by improved asset allocation and value discovery capabilities [1]. - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to show marginal improvement, with a "recovery growth" pattern, leading to a low-risk appetite among bank depositors who prioritize capital safety and stable returns [1][2]. Group 3: Regulatory Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued a plan to support the development of various fund products, emphasizing the creation of low-volatility and asset allocation products to meet diverse investor needs [2]. Group 4: Fund Performance - As of the end of 2025, the total market size of "fixed income +" funds reached a historical high of 2.735 trillion yuan, reflecting a growing acceptance among investors [3]. - Several "fixed income +" products from Bosera Fund have shown strong performance, with specific funds achieving notable net value growth rates significantly above their respective benchmarks [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ETFs have significant allocation tool attributes and have become one of the most highly - regarded and fastest - growing fund types in recent years. The domestic ETF institutional system has been continuously improved, and the first batch of stock - bond constant ETFs is expected to be launched soon [1]. - Stock - bond constant ETFs can standardize and passivize the "fixed - income +" strategy, with high strategy transparency, strong investment discipline, low comprehensive costs, and high trading efficiency. They are expected to become an important supplement in the multi - asset allocation field [2]. - Overseas, the BlackRock iShares Core Allocation series is a benchmark product. It has achieved remarkable scale expansion and good performance, providing a reference for the development of domestic products [3]. - The launch of stock - bond constant ETFs may have a structural impact on the bond market, and fund companies and investors should take corresponding measures [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 System Improvement and Product Launch - **ETF Basic System Optimization**: Since 2022, a series of policies have been introduced to optimize the ETF system, including promoting product innovation, shortening the waiting period for fund development, establishing a fast - approval channel, guiding long - term funds to enter the market, and optimizing the registration process and sales fee arrangements [8][9]. - **Policy Guidance for Stock - Bond Constant Products**: In 2025, relevant policies explicitly proposed to research and launch multi - asset ETFs, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange put forward the development direction of "serving new - quality productivity through stock - bond combination". Meanwhile, multiple stock - bond constant ratio indexes have been released [11]. 3.2 Characteristics of Stock - Bond Constant Indexes and ETF Products - **Product Introduction**: Stock - bond constant ETFs are passive exchange - traded funds that allocate stocks and bonds in a preset fixed ratio. They achieve disciplined multi - asset allocation by tracking standardized indexes and use a rebalancing mechanism to maintain the target ratio. They have advantages such as high strategy transparency, strong investment discipline, low comprehensive costs, and high trading efficiency [2][13]. - **Stock - Bond Constant Indexes**: The domestic stock - bond constant ratio index system has a multi - level layout, covering different risk preferences. It provides a basis for the diversified and differentiated issuance of stock - bond constant ETFs [16]. 3.3 Overseas Experience: BlackRock iShares Series - **Product Introduction**: The BlackRock iShares Core Allocation series uses four standardized stock - bond ratios to cover the full risk spectrum, corresponding to different risk - preference customer groups [20]. - **Architecture Design**: It adopts a pure ETF - FOF architecture, with the mother ETF investing in iShares' core stock and bond ETFs, achieving high - transparency global asset allocation [23]. - **Cost Advantage**: The series has a unified net fee rate of 15bp, benefiting from scale effects, internal cooperation, and a passive management model [31]. - **Performance**: From November 2008 to the end of 2025, different - ratio products showed clear gradients in annualized returns, with higher stock ratios corresponding to higher returns [32]. - **Scale Change**: The average asset size of the series expanded from $49 million in 2008 to $8.35 billion in 2025, with the scale being affected by the underlying asset market [33]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Impact on the Bond Market**: In the short term, stock - bond constant ETFs have a limited and local impact on the bond market. In the long term, they may lead to the re - allocation of some fixed - income funds, having a structural impact on the bond market [37]. - **Experience for Fund Companies**: Fund companies should focus on the first - mover advantage, select mature underlying indexes, and control cost rates [38]. - **Attraction for Investors**: In the low - interest - rate era, stock - bond constant ETFs can supplement the returns of traditional fixed - income products, have lower costs, and high strategy transparency, allowing investors to choose asset combinations according to their risk preferences [40].

Core Insights - The asset management industry in China is projected to reach a total scale of 184.53 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a growth of 13.1% compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Industry Growth and Structure - The asset management industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on quality and detailed management, influenced by regulatory policies and market changes [2] - By the end of 2025, the breakdown of the asset management industry includes: bank wealth management at 33.29 trillion yuan, public funds at 37.71 trillion yuan, private funds at 22.15 trillion yuan, pension funds at 6.85 trillion yuan, private asset management by securities firms at 12.30 trillion yuan, insurance fund utilization at 37.46 trillion yuan, and trust assets at 32.43 trillion yuan [2] - The number of bank wealth management products reached 46,300 by the end of 2025, marking a 14.89% increase from the beginning of the year [3] Group 2: Performance of Funds - In 2025, public fund indices showed significant performance variation, with stock fund indices achieving an annualized return of 27.84%, and actively managed stock funds reaching 33.58% [4] - The number of private securities investment fund managers decreased to 7,531, while the number of funds dropped to 80,390, although the total management scale increased by 35.8% to 7.1 trillion yuan [4] - The trust industry is experiencing a notable shift towards standardized products, with the number of standard trust products increasing by 46.93% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Insurance Asset Management - The balance of funds utilized in insurance asset management is steadily increasing, with stock investment scales for life insurance and property insurance companies growing by 50.47% and 30.28% respectively [5] Group 4: Technological Integration - The report highlights the integration of artificial intelligence in asset management, with firms like BlackRock utilizing smart investment research platforms and risk control systems to enhance decision-making [6] - The dual focus on wealth management and asset management is becoming a significant development direction for the industry, with expectations for a key transformation period over the next five years [6]