Risk Management Strategies for $PUMP Token - Suggests a relatively stable hedging strategy for $PUMP, considering uncertainties post-launch [1] - Recommends a 2x margin (0.5x leverage) with an initial 30% short position, gradually increasing to 43% via TWAP [1] - Emphasizes that hedging is for value preservation, not profit locking, advising against excessive hedging due to complexity [1] - A 43% hedge aims to prevent losses if the price drops to 0.0033 [1] Challenges in $PUMP Token Trading - Some users experienced difficulties in executing trades on certain exchanges [1] - Issues reported include problems with KYC completion and balance display on the official website [1]

刚才调查了2小时，pump一开始缺失了不少视角。更改下观点。老外很fomo。老外顶着溢价开多，生怕打不到，套保可能是赚老外的钱？套保最怕项目方小池子开盘。如果打的很快，那盘前是会涨的。博弈点太多了，不过这2天盘前肯定不会裸空的。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, industrial silicon rose 5.45% and polysilicon rose 16.39%. Both have shown signs of fatigue, and it is expected that they may start to correct next week. The correction range of polysilicon is expected to be smaller than that of industrial silicon [7]. - For industrial silicon, the overall demand from its three major downstream industries continues to slow down. For polysilicon, the demand side still faces significant pressure, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging [7]. - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuate within the range of 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short term, within the range of 37500 - 42500, with a stop - loss range of 36500 - 43000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon rose 5.45% this week, driven by an anti - involution meeting. Polysilicon rose 16.39%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry. However, short - term polysilicon has entered an overheated state, and the market's upward momentum has gradually declined [7]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, the supply in the northwest remains stable, and the production cost in the southwest has decreased. The overall demand from downstream industries has slowed down. For polysilicon, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has weakened. It is expected that both may correct next week, with polysilicon's correction range being smaller [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should fluctuate within 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short term, within 37500 - 42500, with a stop - loss range of 36500 - 43000 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the price of industrial silicon rose, the spot price increased, and the basis weakened. As of July 11, 2025, the spot price was 8750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 335 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the futures price of polysilicon rebounded, the basis strengthened, and the spot price increased. As of July 11, 2025, the spot price was 46 yuan/kg, up 10 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was 4700 yuan/gram [17][19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: This week, the production and operating rate of industrial silicon increased. As of July 11, 2025, the national output was about 77,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 53.44% [21][22]. - **Cost**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the electricity price was adjusted downwards. During the wet season, the overall cost continued to decline [25]. - **Inventory**: This week, the warehouse receipts of industrial silicon decreased, the social inventory increased, and the overall inventory continued to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50,544 lots, a decrease of 1372 lots from last week, and the total social inventory was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons [30][34]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: The production and operating rate of organic silicon increased, the short - term profit was repaired, and the production continued. As of July 11, 2025, the weekly output was 44,800 tons, a decrease of 100 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 69.41%, an increase of 1.17% [36][40]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy increased, the inventory increased, and it was still in the stage of passive de - stocking. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will remain weak [48]. - **Silicon Wafer and Cell**: The prices of silicon wafers and cells decreased, which dragged down the demand for polysilicon and industrial silicon [55]. - **Polysilicon Cost and Production**: This week, the cost of polysilicon remained flat, and it is expected that the production will gradually decline. In June 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 92,160 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15% [62][64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel spot market is stable, while the futures market shows some resistance. The "anti - involution" rebound in futures prices has limited ability to drive up spot prices, and the basis has been rapidly compressed. There is an increasing probability of administrative production - limit interference in July - August. The market's expected and confidence have improved, which may help the spot market bottom out before the peak season [4]. - The sentiment in the coking coal and coke spot market is temporarily stable. The futures market has warmed up the spot market sentiment, and there are signs of a coke price increase. However, the overall fundamentals of carbon elements are weakening as coking coal supply recovers in July. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to a reduction in demand for the black industry rather than a contraction in supply [5][7]. - The short - term driving force for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is insufficient, and prices are mainly oscillating. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are currently acceptable, while the supply of silicomanganese is increasing, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [8]. - In the iron ore market, under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the spot price has followed the rise and the basis has rebounded. It is not recommended to short the black market in the short term. Steel mills' profits remain high, and the daily average hot metal in July is expected to remain at a high level [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On July 8, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3083 yuan/ton (-0.10%), HC2601 at 3200 yuan/ton (-0.03%), I2601 at 707 yuan/ton (0.07%), J2601 at 1470.50 yuan/ton (0.44%), and JM2601 at 891 yuan/ton (0.62%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3063 yuan/ton (-0.13%), HC2510 at 3191 yuan/ton (-0.06%), I2509 at 733 yuan/ton (0.14%), J2509 at 1424.50 yuan/ton (0.14%), and JM2509 at 843.50 yuan/ton (0.84%) [2]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and basis also had corresponding changes on July 8 [2]. Steel Industry - Steel spot is stable, and futures are slightly resistant. The "anti - involution" rebound has limited ability to drive up spot prices. There is a high probability of administrative production - limit interference in July - August. The market sentiment has improved, which may help the spot market bottom out before the peak season [4]. - The trading strategy is that the unilateral market turns to oscillation, and it is the time to enter the spot - futures positive arbitrage position as the basis approaches [4][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - Spot sentiment is stable, with a rising voice for coke price increases. The futures market has driven the spot market to warm up. However, the overall fundamentals of carbon elements are weakening as coking coal supply recovers in July. The "anti - involution" policy may reduce demand for the black industry [5][7]. - The trading strategy is to mainly observe and control risks on the unilateral market and pay attention to whether the previous high will be broken [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - The short - term driving force is insufficient, and prices are mainly oscillating. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are currently acceptable, while the supply of silicomanganese is increasing, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [8]. - The trading strategy is to hold long - call options [10]. Iron Ore Industry - Under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the spot price has followed the rise and the basis has rebounded. It is not recommended to short the black market in the short term. Steel mills' profits remain high, and the daily average hot metal in July is expected to remain at a high level [9]. - The trading strategy is to mainly observe the market [9].

【钢材】周末现货跟涨动能转弱 宏观层面近期都没有太多新增的风险,导致市场情绪还行的,资金愿意入场交易risk on,短暂利好风险资产。具体到行情 上,前一周市场波动放大,"反内卷"的导火线带来资金的跟随，期现正套以及前期反套被空单可能会带来短期现货成交 投机需求的放量,但现货反馈周二周三成交尚可,周四周五现货成交蓄力是跟不上的;倾向于若短期未看到实质性政策出 台,则对利润的利好影响及成材价格的独自利好并不能持续太久。期现维度,黑色板块品种的基差远期持续收缩,焦煤、焦 炭都出现期货升水,铁矿石期货接近平水,螺纹钢的基差通过近几日的反弹再度收缩了一波,卷、螺期价重回升水,利于集 现正套以及套保头寸的主动入场。周末观察现货跟涨的动能并不强劲,现货商不追涨。现货持货意愿不强,有利润快速兑现 以及高周转,感觉仍是市场的主流思路,暂不认为黑色行情进入反转状态。 胎年金属数据日报 | 2025/07/07 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宇慧 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the freight rate has likely been reached, as Maersk's freight rate for the first week of the second half of July remained unchanged, and MSC's freight rate for the second half of July also remained the same as the first half. It is necessary to monitor the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies, especially the PA Alliance [4]. - During the off - season, the EC2510 contract can be sold on rallies for hedging when the freight rate is falling [5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Analysis - **European Routes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 29 is 1780/2980; HPL's quotes vary for different shipping periods. MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also have their own price quotes [1]. - **US Routes**: Earlier, the supply and demand of the US routes both increased, and the supply recovered rapidly. The freight rates on the US East and West routes have fallen from their highs. The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 350,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, 359,000 TEU in July, and 299,000 TEU in August. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in week 29 is 1456/1820 (compared to 4296/5360 in the first half of June), and the Shanghai - New York price in week 28 is 3625 dollars/FEU (compared to 6410 dollars/FEU in the first half of June) [2]. II. Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical events such as the Israeli air strikes in Gaza, the situation of the cease - fire agreement draft, and the US and Iran's statements may have an impact on the shipping market, but the specific impact is not elaborated in detail [2]. III. Shipping Capacity - **European Routes**: The monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base ports was 261,900 TEU in July and 269,900 TEU in August. There were 8 blank sailings in July (5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 in August (both by the OA Alliance). The decrease in capacity in July was mainly due to the skipping of Shanghai ports by MSC's ALBATROS route from week 28 to week 31, with a reduction of about 15,000 TEU of allocated shipping capacity [3]. IV. Freight Rate Analysis - **European Routes**: The freight rate top has likely emerged. Historically, the Shanghai - European base port freight rate generally peaked around week 34. In 2024, it peaked in mid - July, and there is a strong game between the August contract expectations and reality. The delivery settlement price of the EC2508 contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th [4]. V. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of July 3, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 83,654 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 63,574 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 at 1325.20, EC2604 at 1174.20, EC2506 at 1310.00, EC2508 at 1883.50, EC2510 at 1367.90, and EC2512 at 1528.00 [5][6]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 27th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2030 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2578 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 4717 dollars/FEU. On July 1st, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2123.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1619.19 points [6]. VI. Container Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [7]. VII. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract [7].

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> 市场空头氛围弥漫，商品大面积下挫；黑色系及广期所品种领跌，工业硅大跌4%，玻璃、焦煤跌近 4%，纯碱大跌3%，多晶硅、焦炭、硅铁、碳酸锂、PVC大跌2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)↑ | | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅2509 | 7765 | -4.31% | | 玻璃2509 | 979 | -3.83% | | 焦煤2509 | 809.5 | -3.92% | | 纯碱2509 | 1163 | -3.00% | | 多昌硅2508 | 32570 | -2.78% | | 佳炭2509 | 1385.0 | -2.70% | | PVC2509 | 4817 | -2.17% | | 氧化铝2509 | 2927 | -2.01% | | 硅铁2509 | 5272 | -2.01% | | 碳酸锂2509 | 61460 | -1.95% | | 对二甲苯2509 | 6734 | -1.35% | | 铁矿石2509 | 708.5 | -1.32% | | 沪锌2508 | 22145 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Industrial silicon - Interval operation, upstream sell - hedge on rallies; Polysilicon - Neutral [2][8] - Inter - month spread: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Cross - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices are relatively strong, affected by the rising sentiment of coking coal and the news of production cuts by a leading northwest enterprise. However, with increasing supply and high inventory, the rebound space is limited [1][2]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded, but the fundamentals are weak with high inventory, increasing supply after southwest restart, and possible decline in consumption. The market is easily affected by capital sentiment and policy disturbances [3][6]. Market Analysis - Industrial Silicon - On June 26, 2025, the main contract 2509 of industrial silicon futures opened at 7600 yuan/ton and closed at 7720 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 321342 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 27 was 53234 lots, a decrease of 29 lots from the previous day [1]. - Spot prices remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1]. - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas on June 26 was 54.2 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from the previous week. The inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 12.8 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons, and that in social delivery warehouses was 41.4 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton, and the price was temporarily stable, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [1]. Market Analysis - Polysilicon - On June 26, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures rebounded significantly, opening at 30745 yuan/ton and closing at 31715 yuan/ton, a 3.46% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 77132 lots, and the trading volume was 225035 lots [3]. - Spot prices remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, with the polysilicon inventory at 27.00 tons, a 3.05% increase, and the silicon wafer inventory at 20.11GW, a 7.30% increase. The weekly polysilicon output was 23600.00 tons, a decrease of 3.67%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.44GW, an increase of 4.10% [3]. Market Analysis - Silicon Wafer and Battery - Silicon wafer prices: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 0.87 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.23 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.02 yuan/piece [5]. - Battery prices: High - efficiency PERC182 battery was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Factors to Monitor - The resumption of production and new capacity commissioning in the northwest and southwest regions [4]. - Changes in the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises [4]. - Policy disturbances [4]. - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment [4]. - The operating rate of silicone enterprises [4]. - The impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [8]. - The impact of futures listing on the spot market [8]. - The impact of capital sentiment [8]. - The impact of policy disturbances [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has weakened again. There is no bright spot in the off - season demand, and there is no strong rebound driver for the black sector. The basis of steel is in a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there is still room for the basis to shrink. The off - season may see the basis repaired through weaker spot prices [4]. - The coking coal spot has continued to recover, and the futures have rebounded again. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke have improved, but the futures have been under pressure due to factors such as the alleviation of geopolitical conflicts and the previous over - pricing of the rebound expectations. The industry clients are advised to actively participate in selling hedging [5][6]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices have strengthened slightly due to environmental protection disturbances in Wuhai. The supply and demand of silicon - iron are acceptable in the short term, while the supply of manganese - silicon has increased, and the price is under pressure [6]. - The iron ore spot price has continued to fall to narrow the basis. The iron ore shipment is gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight destocking to a slight stocking stage. It is recommended to focus on short - selling steel unilaterally and for the industry clients to actively participate in selling hedging for coking coal and coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On June 25, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2978 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan, - 0.30%), HC2601 at 3099 yuan/ton (- 6 yuan, - 0.19%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2976 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan, - 0.33%), HC2510 at 3098 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan, - 0.26%), etc. The cross - month spreads, spreads/price ratios/profits also had corresponding changes [2]. Spot Market - **Steel**: The spot prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou螺纹 were 3050 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), 3130 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), and 3140 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively on June 25. The prices of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou热卷 were 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), 3190 yuan/ton, and 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts for coking coal, the downstream replenished the raw materials appropriately. The port trade quasi - first - grade coke was quoted at 1140 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), and the coking coal price index was 937.1 (+ 0.6). The Mongolian coal market had more inquiries, and the border trade enterprises had a strong willingness to hold prices [5]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: The steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and no strong rebound driver. The basis is in a futures - discount - to - spot structure, and there is a possibility of the basis being repaired through weaker spot prices [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal spot is improving, and the futures have rebounded. However, the futures may be under pressure due to factors such as the potential increase in supply and the previous over - pricing of the rebound expectations. The industry clients are advised to actively participate in selling hedging [5][6]. - **Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon**: The prices have strengthened slightly due to environmental protection disturbances in Wuhai. The short - term supply and demand of silicon - iron are acceptable, while the supply of manganese - silicon has increased, and the price is under pressure [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price has continued to fall to narrow the basis. The shipment is increasing, and the port inventory has shifted to a slight stocking stage. It is recommended to focus on short - selling steel unilaterally [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 07 main contract decreased by 2093 lots, closing at 806.5, down 1.47%, while the 09 contract increased by 867 lots, closing at 794.5, down 0.69%. The 7 - 9 month spread dropped to 12. The main spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable, and delivery profits emerged in Jiangsu and Lanshan, opening the spot - futures arbitrage window [3]. - 100 new warehouse receipts from Jiangsu Huihong (Taicang Xinhai Port) were added, with a total of 513 warehouse receipts. The rising futures price created hedging profit margins, stimulating new warehouse receipt generation. With only 4 trading days left until delivery, the capital game is intense [3]. - The lowest deliverable warehouse receipt cost is anchored in Chongqing's 6 - meter medium - A logs, with a delivery cost of about 770 yuan/cubic meter. There is also a nearly risk - free arbitrage space, and it's possible that new ships will be sent to Chongqing for delivery [3]. - The current price also shows hedging profits in Jiangsu and Shandong. Given the off - season demand and difficult spot sales, the arbitrage window will stimulate more hedging demand [3]. - It is recommended that industrial customers seize this hedging opportunity, while non - industrial customers should stay on the sidelines to avoid risks caused by low liquidity and large price fluctuations near the delivery date [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high log imports and inventory, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2507) at a 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 800 - 785, and buy put options (lg2507P775) at a 25% ratio with an entry range of 9.5 - 14. They can also buy put options and sell call options (lg2507C800) at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 4.5 - 7.5 to reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2507) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 750 - 800. They can also sell put options (lg2507P750) at a 75% ratio with an entry range of 5.5 - 12 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price [2]. Core Contradictions - The 07 main contract decreased by 2093 lots, closing at 806.5, down 1.47%, and the 09 contract increased by 867 lots, closing at 794.5, down 0.69%. The 7 - 9 month spread dropped to 12. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable, and the spot - futures arbitrage window opened [3]. - 100 new warehouse receipts were added, with a total of 513. The rising futures price led to hedging profits and new warehouse receipt generation. With 4 days left until delivery, the capital game is intense [3]. - The lowest deliverable warehouse receipt cost is about 770 yuan/cubic meter in Chongqing. There is an arbitrage space, and new ships may be sent to Chongqing for delivery. Hedging profits also exist in Jiangsu and Shandong, which will stimulate more hedging demand [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Industrial customers are advised to focus on this hedging opportunity, while non - industrial customers should stay on the sidelines to avoid risks caused by low liquidity and large price fluctuations near the delivery date [4]. Spot and Basis - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis (after conversion) of various log specifications at different ports on June 24, 2025. The basis (after conversion) is calculated as the spot price after an 8% volume increase minus the main contract price plus or minus the premium/discount [8]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 169 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [9]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the port inventory in China was 335 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10 and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The port inventories in Shandong and Jiangsu also had corresponding changes [9]. - **Demand**: As of June 20, 2025, the daily average log outbound volume from ports was 6.36 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 and a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. The daily average outbound volumes in Shandong and Jiangsu also increased [9]. - **Profit**: As of June 27, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 46 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1, and the spruce import profit was - 77 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [9]. Log Month - Spread Structure - The report presents the closing prices of different log futures contracts (lg07m.dce, lg09m.dce, lg11m.dce) on the current day, the previous day, and the previous week [11]. Spot Price Seasonality - The report shows the seasonal trends of spot prices for different log specifications at different ports from 2022 - 2025 [12][15][17]