Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are driven by coal costs with a slightly lifted price center, and the supply - demand structure has marginally weakened with no prominent overall contradictions. Attention should be paid to pre - parade production restrictions [3]. - Coking coal and coke futures have strengthened, with far - month contracts hitting the daily limit. However, regulatory risks increase after the far - month contracts hit the limit again, and short - term capital games dominate [4]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are supported by the "anti - involution" logic, but market sentiment may fluctuate, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory [5]. - After the relevant meetings, the iron ore sector has seen sharp fluctuations. Although there is an expected supply increase in the second half of the year, the 01 contract still has upward potential after adjustment [6]. Summary by Categories Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts on August 5th**: RB2601 closed at 3306.00 yuan/ton, up 56.00 yuan (1.72%); HC2601 at 3462.00 yuan/ton, up 66.00 yuan (1.94%); I2601 at 778.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan (1.83%); J2601 at 1708.00 yuan/ton, up 67.00 yuan (4.08%); JM2605 at 1233.00 yuan/ton, up 91.00 yuan (7.97%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts on August 5th**: RB2510 closed at 3233.00 yuan/ton, up 44.00 yuan (1.38%); HC2510 at 3457.00 yuan/ton, up 64.00 yuan (1.89%); I2509 at 798.50 yuan/ton, up 9.50 yuan (1.20%); J2509 at 1634.50 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan (3.16%); JM2601 at 1182.00 yuan/ton, up 76.50 yuan (6.92%) [1]. - **Spread and Ratio on August 5th**: The spread between RB2510 - 2601 was - 73.00 yuan/ton; the spread between HC2510 - 2601 was - 5.00 yuan/ton; the coil - to - rebar spread was 224.00 yuan/ton; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.05; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.38; the rebar surface profit was 40.48 yuan/ton; the coking surface profit was 62.44 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - **Steel on August 5th**: Shanghai rebar was 3370.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3310.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3370.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3460.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3500.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3460.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [1]. - **Other Materials on August 5th**: Tangshan billet was 3080.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; PB fines at Rizhao Port were 776.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan; Super Special fines at Qingdao Port were 650.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1150.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port (ex - warehouse) was 1480.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Basis on August 5th**: The basis of HC main contract was 3.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; the basis of RB main contract was 137.00 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan; the basis of I main contract was 3.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; the basis of J main contract was - 8.10 yuan/ton, down 19.50 yuan; the basis of JM main contract was - 2.00 yuan/ton, down 41.00 yuan [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Steel**: Focus on the support of EAF valley - electricity cost for single - side trading, and there are partial profit - taking opportunities for spreads [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Buy on dips [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The support for the 01 contract is still valid, and there is an upward opportunity after adjustment [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market shows signs of stabilizing. The recent decline in steel prices was mainly affected by the drop in coking coal prices. In the off - season, the supply and demand of steel are basically balanced, with a small increase in inventory. Steel prices rose in July, and inventory shifted from steel mills to traders. Steel mills have over - sold recently, and forward orders have been received for 20 - 30 days later. In the short term, steel inventory pressure is low, and as demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, steel prices are expected to be supported. The main risk is the interference from the expected supply of coking coal. It is recommended to take a long - biased approach on price pullbacks and lightly test long positions at the current level [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend. Globally, the iron ore shipping volume decreased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. Based on recent shipping data, the average future arrival volume is expected to decline. On the demand side, steel mills' profit margins are at a relatively high level, with a slight increase in maintenance volume and a slight decline in molten iron production, which remains at around 240,000 tons per day. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and the short - term resilience of molten iron is maintained. Terminal demand shows a strong performance during the off - season but weakens month - on - month. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' equity ore inventory increased month - on - month. In the future, molten iron production in August will remain high, with an average expected to be around 236,000 tons per day. The improvement in steel mills' profits will support raw materials, and there is a seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries, and there are expectations of production restrictions for Hebei steel mills before the September 3rd parade, which may lead to an increase in steel prices and iron ore prices will follow. It is recommended to go long on dips for single - side trading and long iron ore and short steel for arbitrage [4]. Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with significant price fluctuations recently. The fifth round of coke price increase was officially implemented, and port trade quotes remained stable. On the supply side, coal mine复产 is below expectations, and although coking production restrictions have been lifted, production is difficult to increase due to some enterprises' losses. On the demand side, blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly from a high level, and downstream demand provides support. It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline slightly in August. In terms of inventory, coking plants' inventory continued to decrease, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mills' inventory decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. As steel mills increase inventory replenishment at low prices, it is beneficial for future coke price increases. There is room for hedging due to the premium of coke futures over the spot. In August, there are positive drivers from production restrictions in Shanxi and Hebei for coking and steel industries. There are expectations of a sixth - round price increase in the short term. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage, while being cautious of increased market volatility [5]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with significant price fluctuations. The spot auction prices were stable with a slight upward trend, Mongolian coal quotes stabilized, and large - mine long - term contract prices increased. On the supply side, coal mine operations decreased month - on - month. Due to good sales, coal mines mainly held firm on prices, and the market remained in short supply. In terms of imported coal, Mongolian coal prices stabilized this week after following the futures decline last week, and downstream users continued to replenish inventory. On the demand side, coking operations remained stable, and downstream blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly from a high level, with continuous downstream inventory replenishment demand. In August, molten iron production is expected to remain at around 236,000 tons per day. In terms of inventory, coal mines continued to rapidly reduce inventory, ports and borders also saw inventory reduction, and downstream actively replenished inventory, with the overall inventory at a medium level. Although the spot fundamentals are under pressure due to the futures market, there are still expectations of coal mine production restrictions in August. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage, while being cautious of increased market volatility [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - For rebar, spot prices in East China, North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price in South China remained unchanged. Futures contract prices generally increased slightly. For hot - rolled coils, spot prices in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton, North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and South China remained unchanged. Futures contract prices also increased [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 2.6 to 242.6 tons, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.5 to 867.4 tons, a 0.1% increase. Rebar production decreased by 0.9 to 211.1 tons, a 0.4% decrease, with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 2.6 to 26.6 tons (a 10.9% increase) and converter production decreasing by 3.5 to 184.5 tons (a 1.9% decrease). Hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.3 to 322.8 tons, a 1.7% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 15.4 to 1351.9 tons, a 1.2% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 7.6 to 546.3 tons, a 1.4% increase. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.8 to 348.0 tons, an 0.8% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.3 to 11.0 tons, a 27.0% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 16.1 to 852.0 tons, a 1.9% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 13.2 to 203.4 tons, a 6.1% decrease. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 4.8 to 320.0 tons, a 1.5% increase [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, with the 09 - contract basis of some powders decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.5 to - 48.0, a 3.0% increase, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 to 24.5, a 5.8% decrease, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - Spot prices at Rizhao Port for various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume increased by 267.3 to 2507.8 tons, an 11.9% increase. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8 tons, a 4.3% decrease. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 tons, an 8.0% increase [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7 tons, a 0.6% decrease. The weekly average daily shipping volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.4 to 302.7 tons, a 3.9% decrease. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5 tons, a 3.0% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4 tons, a 3.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.3 to 13657.9 tons, a 0.2% decrease. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.9 to 9012.1 tons, a 1.4% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 21.0 days [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased. Coke futures contract prices also increased, and the basis decreased. The coking profit decreased [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 to 64.8 tons, a 0.3% increase, while the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 47.0 tons, a 0.4% decrease [5]. Demand - The weekly molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7 tons, a 0.64% decrease [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 2.8 to 915.4 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 6.5 to 73.6 tons, an 8.14% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 13.3 to 626.7 tons, a 2.14% decrease. The port inventory increased by 17.0 to 215.1 tons, an 8.6% increase [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.8 to - 4.8 tons, a 15.84% increase [5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Coking coal futures contract prices increased, and the basis changed. The coal mine profit increased [5]. Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs FOB price remained unchanged, the Jingtang Port Australian main coking coal ex - warehouse price remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 6.0 to 721 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease [5]. Supply - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 6.4 to 868.7 tons, a 0.7% increase, and the clean coal production increased by 3.1 to 444.1 tons, a 0.7% increase [5]. Demand - The weekly coking production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 to 64.8 tons, a 0.3% increase, and the weekly coking production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 47.0 tons, a 0.4% decrease [5]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory decreased by 13.9 to 118.8 tons, a 10.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.4 to 992.7 tons, a 0.74% increase. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.3 to 803.8 tons, a 0.5% increase. The port inventory decreased by 10.2 to 282.1 tons, a 3.5% decrease [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the energy and chemical commodities market on July 15, 2025, showed a trend of fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy adjustments [1][2][5]. - Crude oil prices dropped on Monday. Trump's statement on the Russia - Ukraine issue led to a price decline. Although Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025, the market is still cautious about future policies [1]. - For fuel oil, the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. The LU - FU spread reached a high for the year, but the medium - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil still exists [1][2]. - The asphalt market's short - term supply decreased, and although the rainy weather affected the terminal construction, the actual demand still had support. It will fluctuate with the cost of crude oil [2]. - In the polyester market, the production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to recover, and the inventory of PTA may accumulate, putting pressure on prices [2][4]. - The import of rubber increased year - on - year, and with the gradual realization of production and rigid demand from downstream tires, rubber prices are under pressure [4]. - For methanol, the load of Iranian plants has recovered, and downstream profits have improved. The price will return to a fluctuating trend [4]. - The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [5]. - The PVC market price declined, and the corporate start - up rate decreased. Although demand has not improved significantly, the market's upward rebound space is limited [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the prices of WTI, Brent, and SC2508 all declined. Trump's statement on the Russia - Ukraine issue was seen as a negative signal. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025. The price will fluctuate, and future policies need to be monitored [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Monday. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. It will follow the cost of crude oil and fluctuate. The LU - FU spread has widened, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt rose on Monday. The adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It will fluctuate with the cost of crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX rose on Monday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to recover, and the inventory of PTA may accumulate, putting pressure on prices [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber remained unchanged, and the price of NR decreased. The import of rubber increased year - on - year, and with the gradual realization of production and rigid demand from downstream tires, rubber prices are under pressure [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol will return to a fluctuating trend. The load of Iranian plants has recovered, and downstream profits have improved [4]. - **Polyolefins**: The price of polyolefins is expected to fluctuate slightly. Supply has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and the demand for agricultural films will increase seasonally [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC decreased. The corporate start - up rate decreased, and although demand has not improved significantly, the upward rebound space is limited [5]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes [6]. 3.3 Market News - Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened sanctions on countries buying Russian products if Russia does not agree to a peace agreement within 50 days, causing the oil price to decline [8]. - Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025, but kept the forecast for 2026 unchanged [8]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [10][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [28][29][30]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][45][49]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [65][66]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows the cash flow and production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is in the 6th floor and Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [83].

【钢材】限产消息继续助力盘面情绪回暖 周三期价运行平稳. 基差暂稳,建材贸易成交再降了一个台阶,但并不影响夜盘盘面情绪回暖,触发点来自于某省发布钢林 产量控产消息,再给盘面情绪点了一把火。只是近期从钢材现货表现来看,能带动的现货跟涨动能持续性并不够,导致基 快速压缩,个别区域或品牌再现期货升水,利于期现正套以及套保头寸的主动入场。同时,市场上对限产的关注度也在拔 高,7月-8月预计会有不定期限产行为,虽然从市场化的角度来看,钢厂生产利润不错,主动限、减产的意愿并不强,但行 政性的扰动概率会增加. 这一点要保持关注;从现货行为来看,当下钢材现货受淡季影响大,市场看涨信心在淡季里并不坚 挺,现货商不追涨,现货持货意愿不强,有利润快速兑现以及高周转,感觉仍是市场的主流思路;不过,近几日走访调研 一些产业客户,普遍感觉市场的预期和信心环比前一段时间,是有好转的,这一点后续若能兑现为买货或者主动做点敞口扣 实际行动,有助于旺季前现货筑底。 【焦煤焦炭】期现共振上涨,焦炭首轮提涨仍在酝酿 现货端,焦炭提涨声音渐起,焦煤现货竞拍成交较好,价格普遍上涨,成交氛围活跃,港口贸易准一焦炭报价1230(+3 0),炼焦煤价格指数9 ...

Group 1 - Steel prices are stable with a slight rebound due to "anti-involution" policies, but the momentum for spot prices is insufficient, leading to a rapid compression of basis [1] - There is an increased focus on production restrictions in July and August, although steel mills show weak willingness to limit production [1] - Coal and coke markets are stable, with rising voices for coke price increases and good auction results for coking coal [1] Group 2 - Iron ore production has decreased by 14,400 tons, and recent spot prices have rebounded due to "anti-involution" trading [1] - The steel mills are expected to maintain high profits, with daily average iron water production around 240,000 tons in July [1] - The overall demand for steel is not weak despite the seasonal downturn, and the logic of weakening downstream demand has not yet manifested [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel spot market is stable, while the futures market shows some resistance. The "anti - involution" rebound in futures prices has limited ability to drive up spot prices, and the basis has been rapidly compressed. There is an increasing probability of administrative production - limit interference in July - August. The market's expected and confidence have improved, which may help the spot market bottom out before the peak season [4]. - The sentiment in the coking coal and coke spot market is temporarily stable. The futures market has warmed up the spot market sentiment, and there are signs of a coke price increase. However, the overall fundamentals of carbon elements are weakening as coking coal supply recovers in July. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to a reduction in demand for the black industry rather than a contraction in supply [5][7]. - The short - term driving force for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is insufficient, and prices are mainly oscillating. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are currently acceptable, while the supply of silicomanganese is increasing, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [8]. - In the iron ore market, under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the spot price has followed the rise and the basis has rebounded. It is not recommended to short the black market in the short term. Steel mills' profits remain high, and the daily average hot metal in July is expected to remain at a high level [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On July 8, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3083 yuan/ton (-0.10%), HC2601 at 3200 yuan/ton (-0.03%), I2601 at 707 yuan/ton (0.07%), J2601 at 1470.50 yuan/ton (0.44%), and JM2601 at 891 yuan/ton (0.62%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3063 yuan/ton (-0.13%), HC2510 at 3191 yuan/ton (-0.06%), I2509 at 733 yuan/ton (0.14%), J2509 at 1424.50 yuan/ton (0.14%), and JM2509 at 843.50 yuan/ton (0.84%) [2]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and basis also had corresponding changes on July 8 [2]. Steel Industry - Steel spot is stable, and futures are slightly resistant. The "anti - involution" rebound has limited ability to drive up spot prices. There is a high probability of administrative production - limit interference in July - August. The market sentiment has improved, which may help the spot market bottom out before the peak season [4]. - The trading strategy is that the unilateral market turns to oscillation, and it is the time to enter the spot - futures positive arbitrage position as the basis approaches [4][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - Spot sentiment is stable, with a rising voice for coke price increases. The futures market has driven the spot market to warm up. However, the overall fundamentals of carbon elements are weakening as coking coal supply recovers in July. The "anti - involution" policy may reduce demand for the black industry [5][7]. - The trading strategy is to mainly observe and control risks on the unilateral market and pay attention to whether the previous high will be broken [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - The short - term driving force is insufficient, and prices are mainly oscillating. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are currently acceptable, while the supply of silicomanganese is increasing, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [8]. - The trading strategy is to hold long - call options [10]. Iron Ore Industry - Under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the spot price has followed the rise and the basis has rebounded. It is not recommended to short the black market in the short term. Steel mills' profits remain high, and the daily average hot metal in July is expected to remain at a high level [9]. - The trading strategy is to mainly observe the market [9].

7000 1000 6000 800 5000 600 4000 400 3000 2000 1000 -200 螺纹基差(右轴) = 价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上 = 期货收盘价(活跃合约):螺纹钢 8000 800 600 6000 400 200 2000 -200 an | 热卷基差(右轴) = 价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4. 75 期货收盘价(活跃合约):热轧卷板 1000 佳煤是美(右轴) 5000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 1000 ■ 焦炭基差(右轴) - 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级冶金焦(A13,S0 一 期货收盘价(活跃合约):焦炭 1000 2001 2007 2008 2005 2023- 2023 zzoz zzoz 2023 | 铁矿基差(右轴) = 车板价:青岛港:澳大利亚:超特矿粉:56. 一 期货收盘价(活跃合约):铁矿 2000 - 1500 1000 -500 論色金属数据目报 | 2025/07/03 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the prices of soda ash and glass have rebounded due to policy stimulus, but the supply - demand contradictions in the fundamentals remain. The soda ash market is in an overall surplus situation, with supply declining, weak downstream demand, and further inventory accumulation. The long - term outlook is bearish. For glass, the demand is affected by seasonal factors, supply is increasing, and inventory pressure is rising. Attention should be paid to the implementation of industry production - restriction policies [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash, Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market Review** - On July 2, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 rebounded significantly, closing at 1205 yuan/ton, up 3.07% or 36 yuan/ton, with a daily reduction of 180,882 lots. The supply and demand of soda ash both decreased, and inventory accumulation continued. In the week of June 26, China's weekly soda ash production dropped to 716,700 tons, a 5.04% week - on - week decrease, and the capacity utilization rate fell to 82.21%, a 4.36% week - on - week decrease. The consumption and inventory showed a downward and upward trend respectively. The market rebounded due to the policy expectation of capacity clearance and production restriction [7][8] - The overall surplus pattern of soda ash suppresses prices. The demand from the real estate and photovoltaic industries is still declining, and the purchasing sentiment is weak. In the short - term, beware of the risk of price correction, and take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [9] - **Glass Market Review** - The demand for glass is significantly affected by seasonal factors. During the traditional rainy season, the terminal demand for glass is weakening. The supply of float glass has increased due to the restart of Shandong Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd.'s Zibo No. 5 line, leading to greater inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory in the industry is at a high level, and the process of capacity reduction is slow. The glass price rebounded due to policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [10] 3.2 Data Overview - The report presents the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [12][13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation", and the ratings for various varieties are also mainly "oscillation" [8][10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflict disturbances have weakened, and the focus of black commodity trading has shifted to the domestic market. During the off - season, hot metal production has increased. Against the backdrop of low valuations, furnace materials have rebounded from oversold levels. However, the construction and manufacturing industries in China have entered the off - season, and steel demand and inventory are gradually under pressure. Tangshan's emission reduction has a short - term impact on supply, with limited overall influence, and prices have re - entered an oscillatory state [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - Tangshan's stricter emission reduction requirements have led to a weakening of furnace materials and a strengthening of steel prices. The impact on hot metal needs continuous observation. The market is cautious, especially as steel is in the off - season with signs of weakening demand, so the unilateral increase in prices is small. Coking coal and coke have declined more than iron ore due to the resumption of coal mines and emission reduction [1][2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: This week, the shipments from overseas mines and the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased month - on - month, with less pressure on the supply side. Although there is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the coming weeks due to previous shipments from overseas mines, the amplitude is limited [3][10][11] - Demand: Steel mills' profitability remains high, and there is no driving force for hot metal to reduce production due to profit reasons. However, Tangshan's emission reduction may affect short - term ore demand, but its impact on medium - and long - term iron ore demand is small [3][10][11] 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Affected by the resumption of coal mines, the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter, and Tangshan's emission reduction news, the market was weak. The supply recovery is slow, demand is expected to decline, and there is still pressure on mine - end inventory reduction, with limited upward price drivers [3][14] - Coke: The spot market sentiment has improved, and inventory has been further reduced. However, affected by supply - demand rumors, the market oscillated weakly. Supply has decreased slightly, and there is a risk of a decline in short - term hot metal production, so the upward price space is limited [13] 3.4 Alloys - Manganese Silicon: The price increase of port ore is limited. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may decrease. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and prices are expected to oscillate [4][7] - Ferrosilicon: The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but there is a possibility of supply - demand gap narrowing in the future. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Off - season demand is declining, supply pressure exists, and the market is affected by sentiment, with prices expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes, cold - repair conditions, and demand sustainability [7][15] - Soda Ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15][17] 3.6 Steel - Affected by Tangshan's emission reduction news, steel prices rose at the end of the session. Supply has positive factors, but demand is under off - season pressure. Overall supply and demand have weakened month - on - month, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel market, with Trump raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, there is greater pressure on steel exports. The policy - driven positive factors have basically been priced in. The real - estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. The peak of apparent demand has passed, and with the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation remains unchanged. Technically, prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - For the iron ore market, steel mills' profitability is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further due to the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel - mill production restrictions. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline is slowing down, and the high proportion of trade - mine inventory exerts pressure on futures prices. The futures price may break downward under the influence of falling steel prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Factors**: Trump's tariff increase, real - estate market conditions, demand seasonality, and limited impact of production - cut rumors. The market is changing from strong to weak reality, and prices are expected to continue falling [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded - steel and hot - rolled - coil futures and spot prices have declined. For example, the threaded - steel futures main - contract closing price is 2,928 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from last week [1]. - **Production**: The national building - materials steel - mill threaded - steel production is 225.51 tons, down 2.58% from last week, while hot - rolled - coil production is 319.55 tons, up 4.54% [1]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased. For instance, the threaded - steel social inventory is 394.59 tons, down 5.25% from last week [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The national building - materials trading volume (7 - day moving average) is 13.95 tons, down 30.08% from last week [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Factors**: Steel mills' iron - water production is expected to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is rising seasonally, and port inventory decline is slowing. The futures price may break downward [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of DCE iron - ore futures main contract is 695.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.43% from last week. Spot prices of various iron - ore powders have also declined [3]. - **Shipment**: The global iron - ore shipment in the week of May 27 - June 2, 2025, is 3,431.0 tons, up 242.3 tons from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore is 13,866.58 tons, down 0.87% from last week. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills is 1,210.52 tons, down 2.65% [3]. - **Shipping and Exchange Rates**: BCI freight rates have increased, and the US dollar index has risen 0.55% [3].