近期市场关注点主要集中在国内政策和产业结构性景气，对中美关系关注度有所不足，该行认为9月以 来中美关系存在阶段性改善的迹象，或在四季度逐步被市场定价。近期以中美贸易磋商马德里会议结 束、达成解决TikTok问题基本框架和中美元首今年第三次通话为代表，目前中美关系呈现高频沟通与重 视实质进展的特点，预计四季度的APEC多边会议和第五轮中美磋商会议将为明年中美元首互访做铺 垫。若中美对抗降温，AH资产有望在情绪修复、资金回流、盈利改善三重逻辑下提振。 近期市场资金在算力板块集中交易后，逐步向其他低位景气成长赛道切换，市场整体情绪保持稳健，流 动性条件尚未出现明显收紧，尚不构成全面利空信号，中期市场或仍延续慢牛格局。具备结构性景气的 新赛道仍将成为投资的核心胜负手。 重点关注催化事件较集中的景气板块：半导体、新能源、人形机器人、创新药、有色等。 智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，国庆假期前往往出现流动性收缩特征，但这种冷清多为 "情 绪性缩量"。同时国庆一般呈现"节后开门红"的特征，牛市中节后涨幅通常维持更持久，并且往往呈现 出长假与利多事件催化同时发生的典型市场特点，持股过节性价比较高。近期市场关注点主要集 ...

程强系德邦证券研究所所长、首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 市场概览 2025年9月24日周三，A股市场震荡上行，债券市场继续调整，工业品期货普涨。 PART.02 市场行情分析 1）股票市场：震荡上行，创业板与科创50均创阶段新高 市场普涨，缩量上行。今日A股市场整体走强，上证指数突破3850点整数关口，收涨0.83%；深证成指涨1.80%、创业板指涨2.28%、 科创50指数涨3.49%，均创阶段新高。全市场4457只个股上涨，占比超80%。两市成交额2.35万亿，较前一日缩量约0.17万亿。市场呈 现"科技驱动+结构分化"特征，"9.24"新政一周年效应持续释放，科技成长股主导的慢牛格局延续。 科技板块领涨市场，继续强化主线地位。市场今日小幅低开后即震荡上行，台积电宣布2纳米制程相比3纳米制程涨价50%，科技产业 需求旺盛催化科技板块行情，半导体、光伏设备、游戏等科技成长板块领涨，银行、煤炭等传统板块表现落后，表明当前市场资金 活跃度维持高位，市场维持积极风险偏好。今日为"9.24"新政一周年，政策综合作用下市场维持慢牛格局，一年来创业板指累计涨幅 近100%，科创50累计涨幅近120%，表现明显 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term repair trend of the stock market has not reversed, and the short - term adjustment is mainly due to the steep upward slope and external regulation. The stock market does not have much room for a significant decline. After the shock last week, the weighted indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index have started to show a high - level shock pattern, and the slow - bull feature of A - shares is clear [1][2] - In the short term, the news of the Sino - US presidential call after the market on Friday and the new positive real - estate policy in Shanghai may still boost market sentiment. During the upcoming National Day holiday, trading is expected to turn light. Without black swan events, the index is expected to continue the range - bound pattern. In October, new variables such as policies and Sino - US geopolitics should be monitored [2] - Factors to watch include domestic policy trends and Sino - US geopolitical news [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. Among them, the Brazilian BOVESPA index rose 2.53%, the Nasdaq rose 2.21%, while the CSI 300 Financial index fell 4.06%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30% [8][10] - Since 2025, major domestic indices have generally risen. The ChiNext Index has risen 44.3%, the SME Board Index has risen 25.9%, and the Shenzhen Component Index has risen 25.5% [8] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, among the stock index futures main contracts, the IM2509 contract had the largest increase and the largest amplitude. The trading volume of stock index futures first rose and then fell, and the open interest declined [12][15][18] - The cross - variety ratio and basis of stock index futures main contracts also showed certain trends [20] 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of September 19, the TTM price - to - earnings ratios of major domestic indices were as follows: the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.35 times, the CSI 300 Index was 13.95 times, the SSE 50 Index was 11.53 times, the CSI 500 Index was 34.29 times, and the CSI 1000 Index was 47.38 times [21][22] 3.4 Market Fund Flow Review - The share of newly established equity - biased funds and the margin trading balance in the two markets showed certain trends. The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net investment [24] 4. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set with reference to 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - Trend strategy: Buy on dips. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF2510 main contract of IF is between 4352 and 4577 points; the IH2510 main contract of IH is between 2840 and 2971 points; the IC2510 main contract of IC is between 6892 and 7354 points; the IM2510 main contract of IM is between 7087 and 7564 points [4] - Cross - variety strategy: Participate in the short - term strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]

Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.30% to 3820.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose, closing at 13070.86 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34% to 3091.00 points [1] - Last Friday, the trading volume in the A-share market was 2.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of 817.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Since August 13, the A-share market has seen trading volumes exceed 2 trillion yuan for 28 consecutive trading days [1] Sector Movements - High-priced stocks experienced a sharp decline, particularly in the humanoid robot sector, which faced a wave of limit-downs, indicating strong profit-taking sentiment among investors [1] - Bank stocks rebounded near the half-year line, and the coal sector also showed performance, indicating a shift of funds towards dividend-paying sectors [1] Economic Environment - The overall positive macroeconomic support for the market remains unchanged, with liquidity conditions improving due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and continued domestic monetary easing [2] - Domestic economic structural adjustments and effective growth stabilization policies are leading to continuous recovery in corporate profits, with consumer spending and stable growth in manufacturing investment [2] - The current market fluctuations are seen as a phase of adjustment within a "slow bull" market, indicating a search for new balance and preparation for future market movements [2]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing volatility, particularly following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [1] - Many investors incorrectly anticipate that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will follow suit with rate cuts, despite a lack of prior indications and current bank lending margins not supporting such actions [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index, which is directly influenced by the US dollar, showed a pattern of opening high and then retreating [4] Group 2 - Upcoming meetings involving key figures are scheduled for post-market hours, which may lead to different market reactions compared to previous meetings held before market opening [6] - There is skepticism regarding the potential for significant announcements or "incremental" changes from the upcoming meetings, especially in light of recent market adjustments and the slow market conditions expected leading into the National Day holiday [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index is showing signs of forming a top structure across multiple time frames, indicating potential market corrections in the near term [10]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up, while the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices show stronger gains, indicating a divergence in sector performance and investor sentiment [1]. Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.22% to 3879.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.07%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.13% [1]. - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 15,249 billion yuan [1]. Sector Analysis - Sectors such as real estate, steel, liquor, and non-ferrous metals experienced declines, while automotive, semiconductor, and agriculture sectors saw upward movement [1]. - The gaming and humanoid robot concepts were notably active in the market [1]. Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook - According to CITIC Securities, investor focus on fundamentals has diminished in recent months, but as market valuations stabilize and enter a slow bull phase, fundamental factors may regain importance [1]. - A slow bull market requires strong sectors to lead, but it is challenging to sustain without overall fundamental support, particularly needing a reversal of deflationary trends to attract foreign investment in Chinese assets [1]. - Overall, the current market sentiment and liquidity are in a high-level consolidation phase without collapse, with promising sectors continuing to catalyze market activity [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with growth potential as inflation improves, suggesting that fundamental factors may regain attention as market valuations stabilize and enter a slow bull phase [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent months have seen investors becoming less attentive to fundamental factors, but this may change as market valuations have completed their correction [1]. - The slow bull market requires both leading sectors and overall fundamental support, with a need to reverse deflationary trends to attract foreign investment in Chinese assets [1]. Group 2: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include AI, pig farming, new energy, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials [1]. - The ongoing market consolidation phase necessitates attention to sector rotation between high and low performers [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that investor focus on fundamentals has diminished recently, but as market valuations recover and enter a slow bull phase, fundamental factors may regain attention [1][3][17] - The slow bull market requires a strong economic sector as a leader, but it is challenging to form without overall fundamental support, particularly needing a reversal of deflationary trends to attract foreign investment in Chinese assets [1][3][17] Group 2 - The AI computing sector is experiencing a resurgence, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.5% and the STAR Market Index increasing by 5.5% [3][6] - Recent trading volumes have decreased, with average daily turnover dropping from nearly 3 trillion yuan to around 2.3 trillion yuan [3][11] - Margin trading has seen a significant improvement, with net inflows of 518 billion yuan compared to 256 billion yuan the previous week [3][11] Group 3 - Inflation factors are expected to return to market focus, with August CPI showing a year-on-year decline of 0.4% and core CPI rising by 0.9% [4][17] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month, ending a streak of eight consecutive months of decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [4][17] - The improvement in PPI for upstream industries like coal, oil, and steel suggests that anti-involution policies may be starting to take effect [4][17] Group 4 - Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts are rising, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated in September and two additional cuts of 50 basis points expected later in the year [28] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with significant downward revisions to non-farm employment data, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates [28] Group 5 - The slow bull market phase is focusing on high-growth sectors, with AI computing remaining a key driver [39] - Global investments in AI infrastructure are accelerating, with major companies like NVIDIA and Oracle reporting substantial revenue growth [39] - Domestic companies are also increasing capital expenditures, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the AI sector [39] Group 6 - The new energy vehicle market is maintaining high growth, with global sales reaching 9.1 million units in the first half of 2025, a 28% year-on-year increase [43] - The domestic energy storage market is also expanding, with a 125.37% year-on-year increase in new tenders [43][48] - The demand for power batteries is expected to grow by 35% to 1,313 GWh by 2025, driven by both new energy vehicles and energy storage [48] Group 7 - The pig farming industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with government measures aimed at reducing excess production capacity [50] - Recent policies include the reduction of breeding sows and the release of frozen pork reserves to stabilize supply and prices [50]

Economic Overview - The PMI data for August indicates that despite a significant decline in July, the economic downturn is stabilizing, with industrial prices expected to rise, halting the decline in nominal growth[2] - In July, industrial enterprise profits fell by 1.5% year-on-year, but this was an improvement of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of profit growth[4] - The service sector PMI for August rose to 50.5, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, reaching a new high for the year, indicating recovery in consumer spending during the summer[7] Market Trends - The equity market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating above 3800 points, driven by increased trading volume and a shift from safe assets to risk assets[9] - The current regulatory environment remains friendly, with no significant changes expected that could disrupt the ongoing bull market, which is characterized by a gradual upward trend in asset prices[9] - The expansion of active credit creation and the transition of retail and institutional investors towards risk assets are positively impacting the equity market[12] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions and unexpected policy changes that could affect market stability[3] - The upcoming economic data for August will be crucial in confirming the economic position, especially after significant declines in credit and investment indicators in July[8] - The reliance on government bond issuance for social financing may face challenges as the issuance is expected to taper off in the third quarter, impacting credit expansion and asset prices[10]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a collective rise on the last trading day of August, with the ChiNext Index increasing over 2%, reaching a three-year high [2] - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index rose over 8%, marking its largest monthly gain since October of the previous year, while the ChiNext Index surged 24% [4][5] - The total market capitalization of A-shares increased by approximately 9.3 trillion yuan, reaching about 104.13 trillion yuan by the end of August [5] Sector Performance - Among the 31 first-level industry sectors, only the banking sector saw a decline of 1.6% in August, while the communication sector led with a 34% increase [7] - The technology and innovation sectors showed significant growth, with the STAR 50 Index soaring 28%, the largest monthly increase in history [4] Stock Performance - Over 4,000 stocks out of more than 5,400 listed on A-shares rose in August, with 387 stocks increasing by over 30% and 115 stocks by more than 50% [7] - Notably, 14 stocks doubled in value during the month, with the highest gainers including Geberit and Capcloud, which rose by 155% and 147% respectively [8][9] Future Outlook - Analysts predict a shift from liquidity-driven market movements to a focus on fundamental factors, with expectations of overall profit growth for A-share companies [10][11] - The technology sector is expected to continue its strong performance, while traditional consumer stocks may see valuation recovery as market conditions evolve [11]