Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 2025 was $71.1 million, with Adjusted EBITDA at $22.4 million and an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 31.5% [21] - Revenue excluding the marketing fund was $53.6 million, a decrease of 0.4% compared to the same period last year, driven by a decline in organic revenue and flat foreign currency movements [21][22] - The total leverage ratio decreased to 3.12x as of December 31, remaining below the 3.5x level, which provides greater flexibility for capital allocation [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Aspire program has seen adoption by over 2,000 agents, contributing to reduced churn and improved productivity among participants [11][26] - Selling, operating, and administrative expenses increased by $1.6 million, or 4.4%, to $37.3 million, primarily due to losses on asset sales and increased expenses from other events [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall worldwide agent count reached an all-time high of over 148,500 agents, with significant growth outside the U.S. and Canada, now exceeding 75,000 agents [7][8] - The housing market is showing signs of normalization, with higher inventory and new listings compared to the previous year, indicating a more balanced market [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company views 2026 as a year of tremendous opportunity, focusing on enhancing brand value and expanding its network [4] - Strategic investments in technology and marketing are aimed at improving agent productivity and overall business growth [10][12] - The introduction of new economic models, such as Aspire, Ascend, and Appreciate, is designed to provide greater flexibility for brokers and support long-term growth [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the housing market's recovery and the company's ability to capitalize on it, despite challenges faced in the previous years [5][6] - The company anticipates agent count to increase by 1.5%-3.5% in 2026, with revenue projected between $285-305 million [24] Other Important Information - The company is exploring new ways to leverage its global sales power and enhance its competitive advantages [9] - The RE/MAX Media Network is expected to see significant growth in advertising revenue this year [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of Aspire program on agent productivity - Management noted that the Aspire program has led to reduced churn and improved productivity among agents, with positive trends in recruitment activity [26][27] Question: Factors influencing the recent addition of agents - The decision to join RE/MAX was influenced by a combination of brand positioning, technology offerings, and the company's global footprint [28][29] Question: AI-driven automation in the industry - Management emphasized a purposeful approach to AI deployment, focusing on tools that help agents win listings and improve efficiency [34][35] Question: Key factors for revenue guidance in 2026 - Key swing factors include macroeconomic conditions, stabilization of U.S. agent count, and growth from new monetization initiatives [39][41] Question: Ongoing versus one-time cost pressures - Management indicated that some costs in Q4 were one-time in nature, and the run rate for selling, operating, and administrative expenses is expected to normalize [47][48] Question: Share repurchase strategy - The company is considering share repurchases due to improved leverage and cash flow generation, balancing this with reinvestment in the business [50][52]

我市在全省率先出台《忻州市好房子评价标准（试行）》，成立专项专班推进"好房子"试点建设，引导 房企聚焦"五好"标准打造高品质住宅，适配改善型住房需求。通过2025年新春房展等活动，推动房企优 化线上线下服务，结合基础教育、康养文旅等资源精准宣传。建立领导包联责任制台账，动态破解房企 建设销售难题，搭建政银企对接平台，推动融资"白名单"项目扩围增效，缓解企业资金压力。 定期公布商品房销售数据，加强市场动态监测与形势研判，通过信息公开引导合理住房消费，有效提振 市场信心，营造安心购房环境。 系列组合拳的落地见效，推动我市房地产市场跑出复苏"加速度"，核心指标亮眼，2025年多项数据增速 位居全省首位，彰显市场发展韧性。数据显示，全市房地产业增加值完成58.7亿元，增速达5.6%，分别 高于全省、全国平均增速4.5和5.4个百分点，增速位居全省第一；商品房销售面积达97.4万平方米，增 速高达30.2%，远超全省、全国平均增速36.1和38.9个百分点，超额完成年度目标，增速稳居全省榜 首；新建住宅销售均价增幅5.7%，高于全省平均增速9.4个百分点，位列全省最高；房地产开发投资完 成58.2亿元，增速37.2%， ...

▍数据的"面子"与"里子" ： 春节错位因素导致去年同期基数偏低，这一统计学上的扰动显著放大了今年开年的同比读数。若剔除这 一季节性因素，单纯审视环比数据，我们发现市场的内生修复动力依然偏弱。当前的成交热度很大程度 上源于被压抑的存量需求在政策窗口期的集中释放，以及部分特定区域的偶发性回暖，尚未形成覆盖新 房与二手房、核心与非核心区域的全面复苏。新房市场在经历短暂的脉冲后，仍面临"倒春寒"的风险， 需求的持续性仍待3月传统旺季数据的进一步验证。 ▍价格体系的重塑与隐忧： 本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：明明 孙毓铭 ▍政策合力与表层回暖： 2026年伊始，在中央及地方密集出台的政策组合拳推动下，中国房地产市场部分高频数据呈现回暖迹 象。我们旨在探讨这一回暖究竟是受春节错位影响的季节性脉冲，还是市场内生动力的趋势性拐点。通 过剔除基数效应与季节性扰动，我们发现当前销售复苏主要集中在核心城市二手房，且受春节因素推高 同比读数明显，新房市场及投资端依然偏弱。尽管价格体系出现止跌企稳信号，但高库存、低租金回报 率以及政府收储带来的价格天花板效应，仍构成结构性制约。最为核心的是，当前销售回暖向投资回升 的传导机 ...

Core Insights - The Suzhou second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in transaction volume and prices due to effective market stabilization policies [1][2][6] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in Suzhou doubled year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 11.2%, indicating a positive market trend [2][3] - The market is experiencing a clear regional differentiation, with core areas seeing higher demand for new and improved housing, while non-core areas remain stable [1][3][4] Market Performance - In January, Suzhou recorded 4,391 second-hand home transactions at an average price of 14,900 yuan per square meter, reflecting a growing market enthusiasm [3] - The transaction volume from January 12 to 18 reached 1,083 units, a 16.3% increase from the previous week, with a notable daily spike on January 17 [3][4] - Core areas like the Industrial Park and Lion Mountain are experiencing a surge in activity, with agents reporting a significant increase in property viewings [3][5] Price Trends - The average price of second-hand homes has been rising for four consecutive months since October 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3% [2][6] - Prices in the market have generally decreased by about 15%, leading to a more rational pricing strategy among sellers [5][10] - The reduction in transaction costs due to tax policy changes is expected to further stimulate demand and support price stability [9][10] Policy Impact - Recent government policies, including a reduction in the value-added tax for properties sold within two years, have lowered purchasing costs and stimulated market activity [9][10] - The easing of credit conditions, with first-time home loan rates dropping into the "2" range, has made home buying more accessible [9] - Upcoming initiatives, such as the youth talent loan subsidy program, aim to alleviate financial pressure on young buyers, further enhancing market dynamics [9] Market Outlook - The market is transitioning from a phase of increased volume to one of price stabilization, with a cautious optimism prevailing among industry insiders [10] - The sustainability of the current market heat is contingent on ongoing policy support and the reinforcement of market confidence [10] - Overall, the Suzhou second-hand housing market has emerged from its bottoming phase, but complete recovery will require continued policy efforts and strengthened buyer sentiment [10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued adjustment in the second-hand housing market, with a focus on structural changes and a buyer-dominated market, suggesting a cautious investment outlook for the sector [10][12]. Core Insights - The second-hand housing market is in a phase of bottoming out and waiting for recovery, with significant structural changes across key dimensions. Supply and demand dynamics are showing contrasting trends, with new first-tier and second-tier cities driving supply growth, while demand in high-tier cities remains weak [10][12]. - The liquidity and price adjustments are ongoing, with a general trend of prolonged listing durations and price declines across all city tiers. The report highlights that the second-tier cities are under the most pressure, while core cities exhibit stronger resilience against price drops [10][12]. - Policy measures are being tailored to different cities, with first-tier cities shifting focus from stabilizing second-hand transactions to enhancing new housing market activity through various supportive measures [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Second-hand Housing Listing Volume - In January 2026, the total listing volume for second-hand housing reached 2.56 million units, showing a typical hierarchical distribution where higher-tier cities have larger listing volumes. The growth rate is uneven, with new first-tier and second-tier cities leading in supply increases [14][15]. - The year-on-year growth rates for new first-tier and second-tier cities are 7.19% and 7.47%, respectively, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a decline of 2.40% [16]. 2. Housing Search Heat Index - The search heat index for second-hand housing shows significant differentiation, with third and fourth-tier cities having the highest heat index at 71.26, while first-tier cities lag behind at 64.67. All city tiers show positive year-on-year growth, but the growth rates vary significantly [25][26]. 3. Listing Duration - The average listing duration for second-hand housing in January 2026 was 96.5 days, with first-tier cities experiencing the longest durations at 108.7 days. The report notes that the liquidity is generally declining, with significant differences in listing durations across city tiers [34][36]. 4. Average Listing Price - The average listing price for second-hand housing continues to decline, with all city tiers experiencing price drops between 5% and 16%. The largest decline is observed in second-tier cities at -10.52%, while first-tier cities show a smaller decline of -8.82% [42][43].

Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown a decline of 2.1% over the past week, ranking 17th among 29 sectors in the market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and the Wind All A index experienced changes of 0.1% and -1.6% respectively [5][38]. - New home sales in 36 cities reached 1.425 million square meters last week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 14.2% and a year-on-year increase of 146.5%. However, cumulative sales from January 1 to January 30 totaled 5.398 million square meters, down 30.3% year-on-year [5][10]. - The second-hand housing market saw a total transaction area of 1.706 million square meters across 15 cities last week, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.7% but a significant year-on-year increase of 744.4%. Cumulative sales for the same period reached 6.739 million square meters, up 15.8% year-on-year [5][16]. Real Estate Market Conditions - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 7.7738 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The average de-stocking period is 23.0 months, which is stable compared to the previous week but has increased by 6.7 months year-on-year [5][24]. - In terms of land transactions, the total area sold in 100 cities from January 26 to February 1 was 1.7955 million square meters, marking a week-on-week increase of 49.2% and a year-on-year increase of 419.7%. The average land price was 979 yuan per square meter, down 28.0% week-on-week and down 74.4% year-on-year [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - For mainland developers, the report recommends companies such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou in A-shares, and China Overseas Development and Greentown China in Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that sales growth expectations post-market recovery will drive valuation improvements [5][9]. - Light asset operation companies are also recommended, as they are expected to maintain stable fundamentals during the downturn. Suggested companies include Greentown Service for property management and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle for commercial management [5][9]. - For Hong Kong developers, the report suggests focusing on companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development, which are expected to benefit from a recovering residential sales market [5][9]. Financing Conditions - In the realm of domestic credit bonds, real estate companies issued a total of 8 bonds last week, amounting to 4.96 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 42.9% week-on-week but an increase of 346.3% year-on-year. The net financing amount was -3.97 billion yuan due to repayments totaling 8.93 billion yuan [5][36].

Group 1 - The issuance of 8 commercial real estate REITs with a total valuation of 32.1 billion yuan and expected fundraising of 31.5 billion yuan indicates a significant improvement in market issuance and approval efficiency since the official launch of commercial real estate REITs [1] - The real estate market is experiencing a recovery driven by continuous policy support and improved supply-demand dynamics, with first-time home loan rates at historical lows and tax rebates for home purchases helping to reduce costs for buyers [1][2] - The market is transitioning towards high-quality development, with experts noting that the industry is in a critical recovery phase following deep adjustments, supported by ongoing policy benefits and accelerated market clearing [1][2] Group 2 - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 12,905 yuan per square meter in January, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.85%, while new residential properties saw a slight increase in average price to 17,114 yuan per square meter, up 0.18% month-on-month [2] - Policies aimed at stimulating demand include tax reductions and increased loan limits for specific groups, which are expected to activate the second-hand housing market and improve housing demand [2][3] - The supply side is also being addressed through local state-owned enterprises purchasing existing properties for affordable housing, which helps to clear inventory and enhance the housing supply system [3] Group 3 - The financial resources are increasingly directed towards quality real estate companies and projects, with a shift from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock, which is essential for the long-term healthy development of the industry [3][4] - The trend of optimizing debt structures and alleviating repayment pressures for real estate companies is evident, supported by policies that enhance financing channels and reduce costs [4][5] - The construction of quality housing has become a consensus in the industry, with improved regulatory measures reducing delivery risks and rebuilding trust within the sector [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The commercial real estate REITs market is experiencing a significant uptick, with 8 REITs filing for issuance, totaling an estimated valuation of 32.1 billion yuan and expected fundraising of 31.5 billion yuan, indicating improved market efficiency and a key driver for the recovery of the real estate sector [1] Group 1: Market Recovery - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery due to a combination of policy support and improved supply-demand dynamics, with first-time home loan rates at historical lows and tax rebates for home purchases continuing [1][2] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 12,905 yuan per square meter in January, down 0.85% month-on-month, while new residential properties saw a slight increase of 0.18% month-on-month, indicating a structural price adjustment [2] - The recovery is characterized by a collaborative effort between central and local governments, implementing measures such as tax reductions and credit easing to stimulate demand [2][3] Group 2: Supply-Side Initiatives - Local state-owned enterprises are acquiring existing residential properties for use as affordable housing, facilitating inventory reduction and enhancing the housing supply system [3] - Financial resources are increasingly directed towards quality real estate companies and projects, with a shift from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock, laying a foundation for sustainable market development [3][4] - The introduction of policies aimed at stabilizing expectations and shortening adjustment periods marks a new phase in real estate policy [3] Group 3: Financial Health of Real Estate Companies - The recovery of operational assets is evident, contributing to the improvement of real estate companies' fundamentals, while debt restructuring and optimization are alleviating repayment pressures [4][5] - The construction of quality housing has become a consensus in the industry, activating demand for improved housing options and enhancing trust within the sector [4][5] - Analysts predict that the credit risk for real estate companies is beginning to decline, with expectations of earlier and more resilient profit recovery for quality firms [5]

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 二手房挂牌价回暖 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 1）周度：二手房成交同比表现持续强劲 二手房市场成交维持高位震荡，同比表现持续强劲。二手房市场活跃度在经历前两周的连续攀升后回调， 本周（1 月 23-29 日）15 城二手房成交面积录得 235 万平，环比小幅下滑 8%，成交规模仍处于过去四周 214 万-256 万平区间，持平于 12 月周均成交 235 万平，显示二手房市场相对平稳。同比维度上，继上周成交增长 10%并终结连续十四周的下跌态势后，本周因去年同期为春节周的低基数效应，同比大增 150%；剔除春节错 位影响，与 2024 年同期相比亦录得 22%的增长。 新房市场受月末效应提振，创年后新高，但复苏成色仍待观察。本周 38 城新房成交面积录得 225 万平， 环比增长 21%，或主要受月末房企集中冲量效应驱动，绝对量虽创下元旦后新高，但仍明显低于 12 月的 263 万-524 万平。同比维度上，受去年春节低基数影响，本周新房成交录得 51%的 ...

随着去年底出台的北京楼市新政显效，二手房成交量有所上涨，二手房挂牌量也出现新变化。券商中国记 者多方采访了解到，最近两个月，北京二手房挂牌量明显回落，近一个月减少了6000多套，较市场最高点 的16万套更是减少超过2万套。 业内人士认为，近期北京二手房挂牌量有所回落，一定程度表明业主预期出现积极变化，市场筑底信号初显。 预计春节后北京二手房市场或出现温和复苏态势，2026年北京房地产市场整体将呈现"震荡筑底、结构性回 暖"的运行态势。 近2个月挂牌量明显回落 "最近二手房成交量多了，导致挂牌量下降了。"某头部中介北京通州区门店的工作人员告诉记者，价格低点的 房子都卖出去了，现在成交价不会像之前那样一套比一套低，谈价比较困难了。有部分业主觉得现在价格低于 心理价位太多，选择主动下架房源，还有部分业主选择把房子出租。 北京东城区、丰台区、海淀区等多家中介门店的工作人员均对记者表达了类似的观点。 中原地产首席分析师张大伟对记者表示，最近两个月，北京二手房挂牌量确实回落了。据他统计，截至2026年 1月28日，北京整个市场二手房挂牌量约14万套，较2025年12月的14.6万套减少了6000多套，距离2025年8月份 ...