Core Viewpoint - The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in smartphones, personal computers, and data centers, along with TSMC's increasing market share in Foundry 2.0, is expected to drive TSMC's market value to potentially reach $3 trillion in the next five years [1][2] Group 1: TSMC's Market Position - TSMC currently holds a 67% share of the global third-party foundry market, significantly higher than Samsung's 11% [1] - TSMC's foundry market share has increased from 58% a few years ago to its current level, indicating a stable upward trend [1] - TSMC's market share in the Foundry 2.0 segment is projected to grow to 37% this year, up from 28% last year [2] Group 2: AI Chip Demand - The demand for AI chips is expected to significantly benefit TSMC, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 35% for the global AI chip market by 2033 [1] - TSMC anticipates a potential CAGR in revenue from AI accelerators designed by companies like NVIDIA and AMD to reach the mid-40s percentage over the next five years [1] Group 3: Revenue Projections - The Foundry 2.0 market is expected to grow by 11% in 2025, with revenues reaching $298 billion this year [2] - If TSMC's Foundry 2.0 revenue share increases to 60% in five years, annual revenue could reach $262 billion, tripling from 2024 levels [2] - TSMC's current stock price is approximately 11 times its revenue, and a slight increase in this ratio could lead to a market value of $3 trillion in the next five years [2]

点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 台积电（TSMC，2330.TW）于4月17日发布2025年第一季度财报，25Q1收入255.3亿美元，同比+35. 3%/环比-5.1%；毛利率58.8%，同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts。公司指引AI加速芯片营收增长强劲，25Q2 收入预计同比加速增长，尚未看到关税带来客户提前拉货。综合财报及交流会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、25Q1收入符合指引预期，毛利率位于指引上限。 25Q1收入255.3亿美元，符合指引预期（250-258亿美元），以美元计同比+35.3%/环比-5.1%；环比下降 系智能手机季节性因素影响，部分被AI相关需求持续增长所抵消；毛利率58.8%，位于指引上限（57-5 9%），同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts，主要系地震及海外产能扩张所稀释，部分被成本改善措施抵消；公 司25Q1 EPS为13.94新台币，ROE为32.7%，ASP 3482美元/环比-0.4%。 2、HPC收入占比继续提升，7nm及以下收入占比73%。 1）按技术节点划分： 25Q1 3/5/7nm收入分别占比22%/36%/15%，7nm及以下先进 ...