Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - PX: Market focuses on Sanfangxiang's production progress, supply remains tight. Avoid short - chasing in single - side trading, go for positive spreads in calendar spreads. Pay attention to long - term PXN compression positions. Supply - demand is stable in July, spreads are expected to be strong. Aromatics are overvalued relative to oil products, with declining blending margins and increasing oil product supply - demand pressure in Q4 [8]. - PTA: Market concerns include whether Sanfangxiang's production will be postponed due to low processing fees and if Yisheng will increase production cuts. Avoid short - chasing in single - side trading, go for positive spreads in calendar spreads. In 01 contract, long PX and short PTA, long PR and short PTA. Supply increases while demand decreases, with Sanfangxiang's new PTA plant progress being a key factor [8]. - MEG: Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plants have reduced operations, potentially affecting future imports. Imports are expected to decline to 63 - 58 million tons per month from July to August. It is in a bullish - biased sideways market, and positive spreads in calendar spreads are recommended when spreads are low [9]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Overview - PX: An East China refinery reduced its load due to a fault, and Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical in China reduced the operating rate of its reforming and crude distillation units. Crude oil futures weakened on July 17, and the spot premium between September and October widened [2][3][5]. - PTA: There were no significant changes in PTA plants in mainland China this week. By Thursday, the PTA load reached 79.7%, and the operating rate was around 85.8% [6]. - MEG: As of July 17, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 66.2% (down 1.37% from the previous period). A 150,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang stopped for catalyst replacement, expected to last about a month [6]. - Polyester: The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained mostly stable this week. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 74%. The overall polyester load was volatile, and the load in mainland China was around 88.5% [6]. Market Sales - Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales on July 17 were still weak, with an average sales rate of over 40% by 3:30 pm. The sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was average, with an average sales rate of 48% by 3:00 pm [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Fundamental Data - Futures: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had different closing prices, price changes, and price change rates on the previous day. Their calendar spreads also showed price changes compared to the day before [2]. - Spot: PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent had different prices and price changes on the previous day compared to the day before. Spot processing fees also had corresponding changes [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a unilateral oscillating market, with a trend strength of 0. The recommended strategies are month - spread positive arbitrage and shorting PXN at high levels [1][7]. - PTA should be concerned about the implementation of polyester filament factory production cuts, with a trend strength of 0. A month - spread reverse arbitrage operation is advised [1][7]. - MEG is in a unilateral oscillating market, with a trend strength of 1. The suggestions are to conduct basis and month - spread positive arbitrage and not to chase short positions due to low valuation [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On July 9, the price of PX rose. One August Asian spot was traded at $855, and one September Asian spot was traded at $847. The end - of - day valuation was $850/ton, up $3 from the previous day. The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session, and the current estimate for August MOPJ is $594/ton CFR. However, the sentiment in the downstream PTA and polyester sectors remains weak [3]. - **PTA**: In China, on July 9, several major polyester yarn and fiber producers were discussing a new round of production cut, but no definite decision had been made as of that date [5]. - **MEG**: On July 9, the average daily price of MEG spot was 4,347 yuan/ton, and the average daily price of futures for late August was also 4,347 yuan/ton. The average spot price in the Ningbo market was 4,362 yuan/ton, and the average non - coal - based spot price in the South China market was 4,365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Polyester**: On July 9, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately compared to the previous day, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 59%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of just over 40% [6]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of p - xylene is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]. - The trend strength of PTA is 0, also indicating a neutral view [7]. - The trend strength of MEG is 1, suggesting a slightly bullish view [7]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Conduct month - spread positive arbitrage and short PXN at high levels. The supply - demand pattern of PX is tight due to the upcoming commissioning of Sanfangxiang's 3 million - ton PTA plant and the planned maintenance of South Korea's Hanwha's 1.2 million - ton PX plant in August. PXN is at a high valuation and shows a weakening trend [7]. - **PTA**: Perform month - spread reverse arbitrage operations. The basis has dropped significantly, factories are selling, and traders' positive arbitrage positions are being stopped out. Supply will be marginally looser from mid - July, and it is expected that PTA will continue to accumulate inventory with increasing supply and decreasing demand [7]. - **MEG**: Due to the strong coal price at the cost end, relevant coal - chemical products have rebounded. With a low valuation, conduct basis and month - spread positive arbitrage and avoid chasing short positions [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Cost continues to support the rise in PX valuation. The unilateral trend is expected to be strong, and the positive spread of the monthly difference should be held. PXN is strengthening [3]. - **PTA**: The unilateral price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take profit on the positive spread of the monthly difference at high levels. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [3]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is strong, but the upside space may be limited. Hedge by going long on PX and short on MEG [4]. 3. Summary by Sections **Fundamental Tracking** - **Daily Price Changes**: On June 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, and MEG decreased by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.8% respectively, while PF increased by 0.4%, and SC decreased by 0.8% [1]. - **Monthly Difference Changes**: The daily changes in the monthly differences of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), and MEG (9 - 1) on June 20 were -40, -26, and -9 respectively, while PF(7 - 8) increased by 28, and PX - EB07 increased by 11 [1]. - **Inter - Variety Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, etc. on June 20 showed various trends, such as an increase of 2 in PTA09 - 0.65PX09 and an increase of 28 in PTA09 - MEG09 [1]. - **Basis and Inventory Changes**: The PX basis increased by 18 on June 20, while the PTA basis decreased by 60. The PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 43,123, and the PX warehouse receipts decreased by 5 [1]. **Market Overview** - **Geopolitical Factor**: The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the highest security agency needs to make the final decision [3]. **Market Views** - **PX**: The core driver of the current market remains on the cost side. Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, multiple PX plants have shut down for maintenance, tightening the supply in the Middle - East and potentially affecting China's PX imports. Domestic PX operating rates are expected to decline further [3]. - **PTA**: It is still a cost - driven market. The risk of the war between the US and Iran escalating may lead to a rise in crude oil prices, providing strong cost support for PTA. Fundamentally, PTA has entered a pattern of inventory accumulation [4]. - **MEG**: The domestic supply has room for growth. Although the profit margins of some devices have been compressed, the overall load has increased to 70%. Overseas, multiple Iranian plants have shut down, with the impact on China's imports expected to be reflected in the far - month contracts [4]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [5].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to continue strengthening due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, resulting in tight domestic and imported supplies. A strategy of going long on PX and short on SC is recommended, and short - term positive spreads are expected as the PXN has significantly strengthened to $255 per ton [6]. - PTA is supported by cost factors, with both unilateral prices and spreads (monthly and basis) showing strength. Despite increased maintenance efforts by polyester bottle - chip and staple - fiber factories, PTA supply remains tight, leading to a significant strengthening of the basis [6]. - MEG is expected to be short - term bullish as Iranian ethylene glycol plants have shut down. A strategy of reducing the position of going long on PTA and short on MEG is suggested. Attention should be paid to the start - up and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol plants under the Israel - Iran conflict [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Changes**: On June 18, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had daily price increases of 3.1%, 2.8%, 1.6%, 2.1%, and 3.0% respectively [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The daily changes in the monthly spreads of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 on June 18 were 10, 4, 14, - 22, and - 5 respectively [1]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The daily changes in the inter - variety spreads such as PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, etc. on June 18 showed different trends, with values like - 6, 61, etc. [1]. - **Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PX - naphtha spread on June 18 were - 212, 90, 3, 40, etc. respectively [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The daily change in PX warehouse receipts on June 18 was - 5, while the warehouse receipts of other varieties remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: On June 18, the PX price rose. Two Asian spot transactions in August were made at $897 and $896 respectively. The PX valuation was $888 per ton, up $4 from the 17th. A 134 - million - ton PX plant in the Middle East postponed its restart, another 142 - million - ton PX plant shut down due to war, and a 40 - million - ton PX plant in South Korea was restarting. The PX - naphtha spread widened to $255 per ton, up $14 from a week ago [3][4]. - **PTA**: On June 18, PTA futures rose significantly. The spot market negotiation atmosphere weakened compared with the 17th, and the spot basis first rose and then fell. The mainstream spot basis was 09 + 293 [5]. - **MEG**: A 44 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Canada restarted, and a 46 - million - ton/year plant will restart this weekend. A 90 - million - ton/year plant in the Northeast restarted and increased its load. From June 16 - 22, the planned arrival at major ports was about 10.0 million tons [5]. - **Polyester**: On June 18, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally average, with an estimated average sales rate of 5 - 6% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 57% by 3:00 pm [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak or Bearish Outlook**: PX, PTA, MEG, asphalt, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, benzene ethylene [4][12][13][24][38][42][45][86][90][68] - **Neutral Outlook**: rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, LPG [4][14][20][50][55][59][64][74] - **Specific Strategy**: For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread and stay on the sidelines for the near - month contracts [4] 2. Core Views - **PX/PTA**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. There is limited upside space, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of polyester production cuts. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to destock, which is beneficial for the near - month positive spread positions [12][13] - **MEG**: There are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses. A positive spread strategy for monthly differences is recommended [13] - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] - **LLDPE**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of polyethylene has high - production and high - inventory pressure, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **PP**: Prices have a slight decline, and trading volume is average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to operate weakly. There is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals, and future production will remain high [45][47] - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is in a state of oversupply, and demand is weak [50][53] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][56] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market [60][62] - **Urea**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity. The futures price will have a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [64][66][67] - **Benzene Ethylene**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity. The supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, and the inventory of benzene ethylene is low [68][69] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] - **LPG**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] - **PVC**: It is expected to operate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Fuel Oil**: It has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX/PTA/MEG - **Fundamentals**: On May 22, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main closing prices all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 2.2%, 1.8%, 0.1%, 1.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The monthly differences, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6] - **Market Overview**: Due to falling oil prices and a slight slowdown in downstream polyester production, the price of Asian p - xylene has declined. The expected slowdown in China's downstream polyester business has begun, but the current production reduction may not have a significant impact on prices. The PTA load has increased to 77.1%, and the overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased to 58.25% [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. The supply of PX and PTA has increased, and the upward momentum of prices has weakened. For MEG, there are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses [12][13] 3.2 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the rubber futures market on May 22 decreased compared to the previous day. The prices of various rubber varieties in the spot market were relatively stable, with some small fluctuations [16] - **Industry News**: In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will continue to decrease in May due to the unstable raw material supply in overseas production areas at the beginning of the new tapping season [18][19] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The prices of various synthetic rubber varieties in the spot market decreased, while the price of butadiene increased. The profit of cis - butadiene rubber has improved [20] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports continued to decline. The price of cis - butadiene rubber is restricted by the overall rubber sector, and the upside space is narrowed [20][23] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures contracts on May 22 had different changes. The spot prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions remained stable. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate decreased slightly [24] - **Market News**: In the week of May 16 - 22, 2025, China's asphalt weekly output decreased. As of May 22, the inventory of asphalt sample factories decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly [37] - **Market Outlook**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] 3.5 LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The price of LLDPE futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China decreased [38] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PE market has declined slightly this week. The market is under pressure due to limited downstream demand and slow de - stocking in the upstream and middle reaches. The supply pressure of polyethylene in 2025 is still high, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [38][41] 3.6 PP - **Fundamentals**: The price of PP futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China had slight adjustments [42] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market has been slightly adjusted, with weak trading volume. The futures market has little guidance for the spot market, and downstream demand is insufficient [43] - **Market Outlook**: The price will decline slightly, and trading volume will be average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract caustic soda futures and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong on May 23 are provided, and the basis is 128 [45] - **Market Conditions**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable with a slight increase. From the fundamental perspective, caustic soda lacks continuous upward drivers. The supply will remain high in the future, and it is in the off - season of demand [46][47] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [45][49] 3.8 Paper Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of paper pulp futures on May 22 decreased. The spot prices of various paper pulp varieties had different changes, with a slight increase in the average price of softwood pulp and a decrease in the average price of hardwood pulp [51] - **Industry News**: The price of imported paper pulp showed a "first - up - then - down" trend this week. The main reasons are the fading of policy benefits, obvious demand differentiation, and unresolved port inventory contradictions [52][53] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity [50][51] 3.9 Glass - **Fundamentals**: The price of the FG509 glass futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang had different changes [56] - **Market Conditions**: The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market trading atmosphere was average, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [56] - **Market Outlook**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][57] 3.10 Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The price of methanol futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions decreased [60] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market has declined this week. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the MTO start - up rate is relatively high [62][63] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating, with a neutral trend intensity [59][63] 3.11 Urea - **Fundamentals**: The price of urea futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices of urea factories and traders were relatively stable [65] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea is expected to fluctuate in a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity [64][67] 3.12 Benzene Ethylene - **Fundamentals**: The prices of benzene ethylene futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot price of benzene ethylene decreased, and the inventory was at a low level [68] - **Market Conditions**: The weakness of pure benzene has not ended, and the supply pressure continues to recover. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the short - term supply exceeds demand. The downstream production and sales of benzene ethylene were strong on Monday but declined rapidly from Tuesday to Friday [69] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity [68][69] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The price of the SA2509 soda ash futures on May 22 increased slightly, and the trading volume was large. The spot prices in North, East, and Central China remained stable [72] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor fluctuations. The supply has a slight adjustment, and downstream demand is not strong [72] - **Market Outlook**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] 3.14 LPG - **Fundamentals**: The prices of LPG futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spreads between Guangzhou's domestic and imported LPG and the 07 - contract increased. The PDH start - up rate increased [74] - **Market News**: There are many PDH device overhauls in the industry. The cost support for LPG is weakening [74][81] - **Market Outlook**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] 3.15 PVC - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract PVC futures on May 23 and the spot price in East China are provided, and the basis is - 96 [86] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PVC market has declined slightly this week. The fundamentals are expected to be weak, with the release of new production capacity and the arrival of the rainy - season off - season. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [86][89] 3.16 Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spot prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [90] - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts on May 22 had different changes, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI indices had different changes [92] - **Market Outlook**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - PX: Adopt strategies of going long on PX and short on PTA, and going long on PX and short on EB. Due to the maintenance of Zhongjin Petrochemical and the reduced load of Zhejiang Petrochemical, supply decreases, leading to a significant jump in PXN [7]. - PTA: Implement a positive spread strategy. In terms of supply - demand, PTA's supply decreases while demand increases, continuing the de - stocking pattern [7]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is strong, and exit the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Conduct positive spread operations on basis and calendar spread. Due to the unexpected shutdown and maintenance of Hengli Petrochemical's ethylene unit, the maintenance of its 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol unit is advanced, expected to last for one month. Supply is expected to decrease by 150,000 tons per month, and the de - stocking intensity from May to June will increase. On the demand side, after the tariff reduction, the operating rate of MEG's downstream polyester factories will increase again due to the recovery of terminal orders, with the expected high of the operating rate raised to 95% [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Changes**: On May 13, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main contract closing prices were 6708, 4750, 4349, 6496, and 3541 respectively, with daily changes of 0.8%, 0.8%, 1.1%, 0.7%, and 0.7% [1]. - **Calendar Spread**: PX (9 - 1), PTA(6 - 9), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB09's values on May 13 were 148, 148, 40, 26, and - 609 respectively, with daily changes of 66, 22, 17, 4, and - 195 [1]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: For PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA09 - PF09, PF07's processing margin on the futures market, and PTA09 - LU09, their values on May 13 were 390, 401, - 1664, 840, and 1314 respectively, with daily changes of 5, - 7, - 22, 6, and 35 [1]. - **Basis and Other Data**: On May 13, PX, PTA, MEG, and PF's basis were 312, 195, 125, and - 96 respectively; PX - naphtha spread was 271. PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC's warehouse receipts were 81164, 11755, 2727, 1810, and 4029000 respectively, with daily changes of - 7590, 100, 140, 916, and no change [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX Market**: On May 13, Asian PX prices soared. Platts evaluated the daily average of Asian PX to increase by 60.67 dollars/ton to 846 dollars/ton CFR Unv1/China. The market sentiment was boosted by the suspension of reciprocal tariffs between the US and China for 90 days. An East - China 1.6 - million - ton PX unit reduced its load to 60% operation, expected to last 7 - 10 days, and another large PX factory in East China reduced its load due to catalyst replacement in the previous process [3]. - **PTA Market**: On May 13, PTA futures fluctuated upward. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, mainly among traders, with more bids from polyester factories, and the spot basis strengthened. Mainstream suppliers offered June's goods [5]. - **MEG Market**: A 360,000 - ton/year MEG unit restarted. Two MEG units with a total capacity of 1.8 million tons/year temporarily shut down, and a 1.8 - million - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol enterprise's one line started maintenance on May 12 [5]. - **Polyester Market**: The sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 58% as of 3:00 pm. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament showed high - low differentiation, with an estimated average of over 50% as of 3:30 pm. On May 12, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament had a late - day surge, with an estimated average of over 510% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PX**: Short - term sideways market, engage in calendar spread positive arbitrage; go long on PX and short on SC, go long on PX and short on EB. Cost - end factors like eased international trade relations and rebounding crude oil support PX valuation. The recovery of polyester terminal demand and increased operating rates drive up the valuation of the aromatic hydrocarbon - polyester chain [7]. - **PTA**: Eased international trade relations push up valuation through cost factors. Reduce positions in the strategy of going long on PTA and short on SC, hold the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, maintaining a de - stocking pattern. With the possible loosening of US tariffs on Chinese textiles and high polyester operating rates, the market trend is short - term strong [8]. - **MEG**: Sideways market, implement the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Supply continues to increase. Although demand expectation improves and de - stocking efforts increase in the second quarter, maintain basis positive arbitrage operations [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Price Data**: On May 8, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC closed at 6404, 4546, 4222, 6290, and 3406 respectively, with daily changes of 1.8%, 1.8%, 0.5%, 1.5%, and 0.2%. The monthly spreads, varietal spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [3]. - **Inventory Data**: On May 8, 2025, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 97724, 10389, 2587, 894, and 4644000 respectively, with daily changes of - 1254, 200, unchanged, - 417, and unchanged [3]. **Market Overview** - **PX**: On May 8, PX price rose, with the valuation at 778 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars from the previous day. The 6 - month MOPJ was estimated at 543 dollars/ton CFR [5]. - **PTA**: Some PTA plants in mainland China had planned shutdowns and restarts. By Thursday, the PTA operating rate dropped to 70.3% and was expected to rise above 73% on Friday. A 150 - million - ton PTA plant in Taiwan, China, was scheduled for maintenance in early June [5]. - **MEG**: As of May 8, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 68.99% (a 0.56% increase from the previous period), and a 12 - million - ton/year MEG plant in South Korea and a 10 - million - ton/year synthetic - gas - made MEG plant in Shaanxi restarted [5][6]. - **Polyester**: The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, with the overall theoretical operating rate at around 72% by Thursday. Since May 1, 2025, the polyester production capacity in mainland China was revised up to 8739 million tons, and the polyester operating rate increased recently. The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fiber on May 8 were weak [6]. - **Weaving**: After the May Day holiday, the restart of production was better in texturing than in weaving. Due to weak terminal orders, the operating rate was under pressure. In foreign trade, some US orders resumed shipment, and there were new orders from North Africa, Russia, and Europe. In domestic sales, the new order intake declined after the holiday [7]. **Trend Intensity** The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 1 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No explicit industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - The report provides trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. Each commodity has its own market situation, supply - demand relationship, and price trend, and corresponding trading suggestions are given based on these factors [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **Trading Strategies**: PX for month - spread positive arbitrage and processing fee expansion; for PTA, with improved demand expectations, go long on PTA and short on MEG; for MEG, the same strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG [4][7]. - **Market Conditions**: PX price increased on May 8; PTA load decreased this week but is expected to rebound, and a PTA device in Taiwan is planned for maintenance in early June; MEG supply continued to increase, with coal - based and oil - based devices having new changes, and some overseas devices restarted [7][10]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as closing prices, month - spreads, and basis differences of PX, PTA, and MEG changed daily [8]. 3.2 Rubber - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate [4]. - **Market Conditions**: In April, the prices of main raw materials such as natural rubber and carbon black dropped significantly, and the tire raw material cost decreased. The domestic terminal demand did not improve significantly, and the sales of factories and agents slowed down [18]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of rubber changed daily [17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate with support [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The cost side of butadiene has support, and the demand for synthetic rubber has increased. The supply of butadiene has decreased, and the inventory of butadiene production enterprises has decreased [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of synthetic rubber changed daily [20]. 3.4 Asphalt - **Trading Strategy**: Crude oil rebounded, and inventory slightly accumulated [4]. - **Market Conditions**: This week, the domestic asphalt weekly output increased, and the factory and social inventories both increased slightly [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of asphalt changed daily [23]. 3.5 LLDPE - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, with later pressure [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The LLDPE market price partially declined, and the market trading atmosphere was light. Considering factors such as new production capacity and weak demand, the price trend still has pressure [35][36]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of LLDPE changed daily [35]. 3.6 PP - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price slightly declined, and the trading was average [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market fluctuated slightly, the futures had limited guidance on the spot market, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average [41]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of PP changed daily [40]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, with later pressure [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The caustic soda price rebounded due to short - term downstream replenishment, but considering the off - season demand in the second quarter, it is necessary to compress profits and reduce supply to balance supply and demand [44]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of caustic soda changed daily [43]. 3.8 Pulp - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate [4]. - **Market Conditions**: This cycle, the pulp price continued to be weak, with pessimistic sentiment, abundant supply, and weak demand [49]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of pulp changed daily [48]. 3.9 Glass - **Trading Strategy**: The original sheet price was stable [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic float glass original sheet price rose and fell in different regions, and the trading atmosphere was not strong [52]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of glass changed daily [52]. 3.10 Methanol - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillating under pressure [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market mainly declined, with high production supply and expected increase in import supply. The port inventory slightly accumulated, and in the medium term, it entered a weak pattern [58]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of methanol changed daily [56]. 3.11 Urea - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to run strongly [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The urea enterprise inventory decreased this week, and the futures price was expected to oscillate with support due to the release of demand and increased speculation [62]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of urea changed daily [61]. 3.12 Styrene - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Market Conditions**: After the May Day holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene dropped, and the price of styrene is expected to be weak. The supply of pure benzene increased, demand decreased, and the downstream terminal orders of styrene decreased [65]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of styrene changed daily [64]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Trading Strategy**: The spot market changed little [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market was stable, with device operations having minor changes, and downstream demand remaining cautious [67]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of soda ash changed daily [67]. 3.14 LPG - **Trading Strategy**: With intensified crude oil fluctuations, short - term wide - range oscillation [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The Saudi CP expectations for propane and butane increased on May 7, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased this week [69][76]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of LPG changed daily [69]. 3.15 PVC - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The PVC fundamentals have high supply and uncertain demand. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the export demand can only relieve the pressure periodically [81]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and spot prices of PVC changed daily [80]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic fuel oil continued to rebound, and the low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened in the short term, with the high - low sulfur spread of the overseas market temporarily stabilizing [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot prices of fuel oil in overseas markets had narrow - range adjustments [85]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed daily [85]. 3.17 Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Trading Strategy**: Low - level oscillation, and lightly hold the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The freight rates of European and US - West routes had different trends, and the prices of current - period European - line freight had different quotes [88]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and freight rate indices of the container freight index (European line) changed daily [88].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Short - term range - bound, recommend calendar spread (long near - term, short far - term), long PX against SC and EB [6] - PTA: Calendar spread (long near - term, short far - term), long PTA against SC. Consider shorting on rallies [7] - MEG: Weak unilateral trend, long PTA against MEG. Avoid chasing high in calendar spreads [7] 2. Core Views - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and supply disruptions support the rise in PX prices. The recovery of polyester terminal demand and the rebound of crude oil also boost the valuation of the aromatics - polyester chain [4][6] - PTA is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, continuing to draw down inventories. High processing fees delay some device maintenance, so the unilateral trend is hard to turn strongly upward [7] - The supply of MEG will continue to increase. Coal - based and oil - based production will see more restarts, and imports are high, making it difficult to reduce port inventories [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Change**: On May 7, 2025, PX closed at 6288, PTA at 4466, MEG at 4199, PF at 6200, and SC at 3399, with daily changes of 2.6%, 2.4%, 1.7%, 1.0%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - **Calendar Spread**: PX (9 - 1) was 36 on May 7, with a daily change of 40; PTA(6 - 9) was 74, with a daily change of - 12; MEG (9 - 1) was - 22, with a daily change of - 5; PF(7 - 8) was 16, with a daily change of - 14; PX - EB09 was - 506, with a daily change of 54 [2] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: PTA09 - 0.65PX09 was 379 on May 7, with a daily change of 1; PTA09 - MEG09 was 267, with a daily change of 35; PTA09 - PF09 was - 1644, with a daily change of - 8; PF07盘面加工费 was 896, with a daily change of 2; PTA09 - LU09 was 1147, with a daily change of 53 [2] - **Basis and Other Spreads**: PX basis was 83 on May 7, with a daily change of 5; PTA basis was 110, with a daily change of - 10; MEG basis was 50, with a daily change of - 3; PF basis was 20, with a daily change of 28; PX - naphtha spread was 206, with a daily change of 12 [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: PTA warehouse receipts were 98978 on May 7, with a daily change of - 3644; ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were 10189, with a daily change of 5239; short - fiber warehouse receipts were 2587, with a daily change of - 6; PX warehouse receipts were 1311; SC warehouse receipts were 4644000 [2] 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: On May 7, Asian PX prices rose significantly. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and a supply disruption at Idemitsu's 210,000 - ton/year PX production line in Tokuyama supported the price. The Platts - assessed average daily price of Asian PX increased by $19.67/ton to $767.67/ton CFR Unv1/China [4] - **PTA**: On May 7, the spot price of PTA rose to 4565 yuan/ton. A 200,000 - ton IPA device in Taiwan, China, was shut down for maintenance, a 300 - million - ton PTA device in East China was restarting, and a 250 - million - ton PTA device in East China started to shut down on May 7 [5] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device in Shanxi plans to shut down for maintenance on May 14 for about a week. On May 6, the MEG shipments from a major warehouse in Zhangjiagang were about 4640 tons, and those from two major warehouses in Taicang were about 2670 tons [6] - **Polyester**: On May 7, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories improved, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 127% in Fujian. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was highly differentiated, with an average of over 60% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. The market trends are influenced by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [4][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In the short - term, it's a volatile market with a positive spread between different contract months. Long PX and short SC, or long PX and short EB are recommended strategies. Cost - wise, geopolitical conflicts lead to a rebound in crude oil, supporting PX valuation. The recovery of polyester terminal demand drives up the valuation of the aromatic polyester chain [15]. - **PTA**: A positive spread between different contract months is recommended, along with long PTA and short SC. In terms of supply - demand, PTA supply decreases while demand increases, maintaining a de - stocking pattern. However, high processing fees lead to postponed maintenance of some devices, so a short - on - rallies strategy is suggested [15]. - **MEG**: It has a weak unilateral trend. Long PTA and short MEG is recommended. The supply of ethylene glycol will continue to increase, with easier restarts of coal - based and oil - based devices and sufficient imported sources, making it difficult to reduce port inventories [16]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move sideways. Its futures prices, trading volumes, and positions have changed, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The semi - steel tire industry faces production and sales pressure, while the full - steel tire industry maintains flexible production scheduling [17][18][20]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - With the rebound of crude oil, the synthetic rubber market has support for sideways movement. The cost of butadiene is stable, and the demand for butadiene from the synthetic rubber end increases. Although the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are neutral, the low valuation provides support [21][23]. 3.4 Asphalt - The asphalt market is expected to be strong and volatile due to the rebound of oil prices. The trading volume and positions of asphalt futures have changed, and the basis has increased. The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt enterprises has decreased, factory inventories have decreased slightly, and social inventories have increased slightly [24][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - The LLDPE market has a weak trend. The market price continues to fall, affected by factors such as the trade war, new production capacity, low maintenance volume, and weak demand [34][35]. 3.6 PP - The PP price has a slight decline, but the low - price transactions are good. The domestic PP market has a slight decline, with weak downstream demand and general trading sentiment [39][40]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term but will face pressure later. After the May Day holiday, the price has rebounded, but in the second quarter, it is in the off - season of demand. The supply may be affected by the profit situation of chlorine - consuming downstream industries [42][44]. 3.8 Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move sideways. The spot price of pulp has declined, the futures price has weakened, and the downstream demand is weak [46][48]. 3.9 Methanol - Methanol is under pressure and volatile. The spot price has declined, the port inventory has increased significantly, and in the medium - term, it is in a weak pattern of high production, high imports, high profits, and gradual inventory accumulation [50][53]. 3.10 Urea - The support at the lower level of urea has increased. The futures price has risen, and the production enterprises' inventory is expected to decline. The demand for top - dressing in Northeast China and summer fertilizers in Central China is being released, and the speculative behavior of traders has increased [55][57]. 3.11 Styrene - Styrene is expected to be weak and volatile. During the May Day holiday, crude oil and pure benzene prices have fallen. The supply of pure benzene increases while demand decreases, and the downstream negative feedback will gradually be transmitted to the styrene link [59][60]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The domestic soda ash market is stable and volatile, with some enterprises reducing production, and the downstream demand is tepid [62][63]. 3.13 LPG - For LPG, the cost support has strengthened, but the supply - demand relationship has weakened month - on - month. The futures price has changed, and the spreads have decreased. The operating rates of related industries such as PDH have declined [65][72]. 3.14 PVC - PVC is expected to be weak and volatile. After the holiday, the domestic PVC spot market is in a stalemate, with high supply, increased inventory, and weak expected demand [75][77]. 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has a weak opening during the day and is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has significantly corrected following crude oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market has temporarily stabilized [80]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in a low - level sideways movement, and a light - position reverse spread strategy between October and December contracts is recommended. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in relevant indices have changed, and the real - time freight rates of different carriers also vary [82].